Dear Reader,I’ve been having a wild year between the chaos of the markets and the chaos of (maintaining) vibe-coded software. Since I’ve been light on updates this year, I thought it would be a good time to clear the air before my next pitch.ProcessI’m kind of rethinking everything as both an investor and writer based off my experience putting hundreds of tickers through Codex 5.5 Extended Pro this last month. I wrote a fairly basic stock analysis/valuation prompt and, well, I’ve found the results really impressive. The experience has taken my understanding of fair value up a notch and frankly given me more respect for the market in general as I’ve come to conclude that a lot of potential opportunities were actually more or less fairly priced, which helps me free up mental space and turn over more rocks. Frankly, it’s also making me question where/how/whether I’m adding value on a more fundamental level. This AI stuff is serious and valuing most stocks isn’t rocket science. Basic “value-oriented” discretionary strategies like mine could conceivably be the first to go the way of the dodo. It really does feel like something has changed in the market. We might be in a small window of opportunity to make underpriced long-term investments before market efficiency permanently improves. Consequently, I’m much more focused on identifying a few dozen stocks that could sufficiently compound for decades.Try out the Prompt, if you like:Please do a probability-weighted DCF valuation (bear, base, and bull case) for [TICKER] shares using a blended 5-year DCF of free cash flow + a terminal multiple of sustainable free cash flow (i.e., accounts for maintenance capex needs only) aka adjusted earnings. Assume a 12% minimum discount rate. Read the latest annual and quarterly report, investor presentation and conference call transcripts if available. Do not peek at the market price when forming your assumptions as this would bias the result; rather, use independent reasoning and judgment with a focus on extrapolating structural trends from the most recent quarter in particular. Call out any hidden balance sheet assets, material legal risks, and moonshot opportunities; if moonshot potential is both material and >2% probability then consider breaking out the bull case to incorporate moonshot potential at your own discretion. Analyze management comp and incentives. Rate the quality of management from 1 to 10 with 1 decimal precision, with a focus on how they have performed versus prior statements/guidance. Discussion management's philosophy towards capital allocation including shareholder returns. Rate opportunity at the present moment from 1 to 10 with 1 decimal precision, where 8/10 is approaching alpha, 5/10 is fairly valued, and 1/10 is a sheer speculative bubble. Call out the two most suitable comps / highest opportunity cost and perform unbiased comparisons as to which you'd rather own at current prices. If you disagree with any of the above assumptions being suitable for this particular company's fair value analysis (such as discount rate or DCF time horizon) then override that assumption and comment justifying why explicitly in your analysis. Consider any broad reasons that would lead to a discount such as poor governance, share class structure, structural/sectoral terminal risk, poor capital allocation history, etc. and the appropriate corresponding discounts as a final overlay on top of the DCF analysis. If your valuation is more than 20% from the current market price give your best explanation for the difference and whether this is more likely to be a real opportunity / valid variant perception or adverse selection from a generalist / consensus opinion. Discuss the most recent quarter and any subsequent material developments. Finally, propose the top two or three questions that you would ask a sharp human analyst covering this stock to improve your understanding / clarity of the company.PortfolioThe energy shock combined with demand weakness in America hit my cement and consumer/apparel stocks hard. Then I played twister by adding more energy exposure and Russell puts, but the market has continued to price in broad consumer weakness while my energy picks haven’t really paid off and the AI trade has carried the Russell. I’m long cement, energy, defense, gold miners, META, duration, and consumer discretionary/apparel. Yeah, pretty much been taking it on the chin all quarter but also kind of grateful it hasn’t been worse.Performance-wise I’m basically flat this quarter. I was too focused on doing my own thing and it really wasn’t the time for that. Sometimes you need to just listen to your guys and size appropriately. With so many great analysts around these days, it’s shameful not to. I’m working on it…This is the most concentrated my portfolio has been and pretty much the most concentrated it can be, though I plan to make a push towards diversification in the near future. Pitch UpdatesNL / VHI — I’m out of these positions recently after my analyst told me he’s bearish on the titanium dioxide market with competition from China expected to remain fairly relentless.MHGU / MHGUP — This was a bit of a nightmare for me to hold through earnings as I promised/disclosed in my article. I ended up selling after earnings because I didn’t like the CEO shifting around financial terminology.TAP — I sold. They have further disappointed the street, which has lowered estimates considerably since my article. Think it’s okay to own here but I believe there are better opportunities at current prices.NRP — Still long. Added a bit recently. Has been frustrating. The reality is that everything has developed about as poorly as could be expected (in particularly soda ash prices) and that’s unfortunate, but it’s mostly just pushed back investing timelines. The long-term value is still there. LMT — No position currently. Lockheed is actually a great example of a stock that my new AI prompt-screening process/prompt has helped me deprioritize. It’s a good, durable business but we gotta’ have underwriting standards, you know? NGS — I have been reducing my position as I think we’re around fair value now.