A Strong Hit Rate and Several Exceptional WinnersOver the past four years, I have published 30 company and thematic investment write-ups on Modern Value Investing. 21 of the 30 published ideas cleared my general stock-market hurdle of 7%.14 of 30 cleared my personal hurdle of 15%.Six investments became multibaggers, compared with four currently down by more than 40%.Restricting to write-ups older than 12 months gives 15 of 21, so the hit rate holds at ~71% even excluding the young ideas that have barely had time to move.The full record is shown below. Every published investment is included, regardless of whether I still own it or whether the thesis ultimately worked.MethodologyReturns are measured from the publication date of each write-up through today (August 4, 2026). For write-ups published more than 12 months ago, I report the compound annual growth rate. For more recent write-ups, I report the absolute return since publication. Returns are measured in local currency and include dividends. For thematic write-ups covering several companies, I report the equal-weighted average return of the securities discussed.These are idea-level returns, not the returns of a hypothetical model portfolio. Position sizes differed significantly, and my actual entry and exit prices did not always correspond with the publication date. I also frequently reduced, exited or later repurchased positions as valuations changed. Those decisions were documented in the quarterly portfolio reviews and other follow-up articles.What the Scorecard ShowsNo investment process produces a perfect scorecard. Nor should that be the objective. The aim is to generate enough good ideas, identify a few exceptional ones, and prevent the inevitable mistakes from offsetting the gains.The results so far meet that test. The majority of the write-ups cleared a reasonable stock-market hurdle, around half met my more demanding return target, and six became multibaggers. The winners have substantially outweighed the investments that did not work.This is broadly the return distribution I seek: a limited number of unsuccessful investments whose impact is controlled through position sizing, combined with occasional winners capable of returning several times the original investment.Where the Thesis Broke and Where It Remains OpenFour published ideas are currently down by 40% to 59%, but they should not all be placed in the same category.VIB Vermögen is down 41% since my writeup in October 2024. VIB is the clearest example of an investment where the underlying assets remained fundamentally sound. VIB generated EUR 80.5 Million in Funds From Operations on a current market cap of just EUR 237 million. However, there is little hope that the value will ultimately accrue to minority shareholders. Branicks Group, the overleveraged controlling shareholder, repeatedly treated VIB as a source of financing for the wider group. This was the factor that I misjudged at the time of the writeup. The lesson learned is that asset quality and a low valuation are insufficient when control, governance and minority-shareholder incentives are misaligned.HelloFresh was a more conventional thesis failure. The earnings trajectory, competitive position and capital requirements developed less favorably than I had expected. In particular, the promising Factor (ready to eat) segment did not work out so far. While I believe HelloFresh could still work out, especially at the current valuation, I do not want to own it at this point. In its recent investor presentation, HelloFresh hinted at fewer share buybacks, potentially in favor of M&A. This is precisely the strategy I do not want to see at this point as an investor. The focus should be on getting the Factor opportunity right, rationalizing the other ventures, and potentially divesting non-core activities. When management’s capital-allocation priorities diverge materially from my own, I can vote with my feet. I keep tracking the developments at HelloFresh and do not rule out re-entering at a later point.Bumble (-59%) and WeightWatchers (-51%) share-price performances have clearly been poor as well, but I continue to own both.As described in my follow-up article on Bumble, cash-flow generation remains extremely strong, but the company’s long-term future depends on the success of its platform redesign. Bumble remains a relatively high-conviction position at 5% of my portfolio.WeightWatchers is one of the highest potential opportunities I have come across in recent years, potentially a 100-bagger if the bull case materializes. However, as described in my articles, the bull case depends on the firm’s pivot to weight-loss medication working out. The 2025 Q4 results and 2026 Q1 guidance were extremely promising in this regard. In my initial writeup I modelled 220k behavioral subscribers by year-end 2026. WW guided to achieving already 200k behavioral subscribers by the end of Q1. If WW maintains this momentum, the stock could be a home run. At the same time, their legacy business is struggling somewhat more than anticipated.My personal observations of Google Trends, Instagram Followers, and marketing activity do not fully support the bull case at this point. I was hoping for somewhat more “buzz”. Especially their Instagram activity suggests relatively little marketing towards the oral GLP medications. This could be intentional to protect the legacy business. But it also may suggest that the company is not willing to “bet the firm” on the opportunity. Put negatively, WW may be handicapped by a need to protect the legacy business more than I wished for. This can be rational for management, employees and creditors, but it may not be the (expected) value-maximizing strategy.WeightWatchers is my largest position with 8.2% at this point. I am eagerly awaiting the Q2 results and guidance with the next earnings report, which will be decisive whether to hold or slightly reduce my position.Six Multibaggers and What Drove ThemThe positive outliers were both more numerous and considerably larger.Meta Platforms, my first company write-up, has returned 267% since publication. The opportunity arose because the market treated a period of heavy spending, margin compression and intense pessimism as permanent, despite the extraordinary economics of the underlying Family of Apps business. Meta remains a 5% position in my portfolio.SK Hynix has returned 479% since my write-up. The thesis centered on high-bandwidth memory becoming one of the most important and difficult-to-replicate bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure buildout. While I have significantly trimmed my position, SK Hynix remains a 5% position in my portfolio.Root returned more than 200% as improving underwriting results, technology-enabled cost advantages and operating leverage became increasingly visible. I have recently reduced Root from 5% to 2.5% to make room for new investment opportunities.Sea and Xometry also became multibaggers, albeit through very different investment cases: one through improving economics across a collection of leading digital platforms, the other through the scaling of a specialized industrial marketplace. I have since exited both positions. Their investment cases played out much faster than anticipated, reducing their remaining prospective returns and leading me to reallocate the capital to more attractive opportunities.Finally, the basket of positions presented in Investing in the Age of AI has returned 253% on average since publication. Rather than attempting to identify a single AI winner, the article focused on the infrastructure, memory, cloud and platform businesses positioned to benefit from a sustained increase in demand for computing. From this basket, I currently still own Nvidia (5%), SK Hynix (5%), Amazon (5%), Microsoft (2.5%), and Softbank (2.5%).The investments were different, but they shared a common feature: market expectations were materially below what the businesses could plausibly achieve if the thesis played out.What I Still OwnSixteen of the 30 published ideas remain represented in my portfolio in some form. Some are established winners; others, particularly among the more recent write-ups, remain in the early or unresolved stages of their investment cases.Continued ownership does not necessarily mean unchanged position sizing. I frequently add to, reduce, exit or repurchase positions as valuations and expected returns change.Why the Research Advantage CompoundsA detailed company analysis creates a reusable intellectual asset. Once I understand a business, its competitive position, key operating variables and valuation, I can update the investment case quickly when new results, strategic developments or market dislocations occur. Maintaining an updated valuation model also helps distinguish between a falling share price and a deteriorating thesis—or between an improving company and a stock that already discounts the improvement.Over time, each full write-up expands the universe of businesses I understand deeply. Quarterly portfolio reviews, earnings updates and follow-up articles then keep that knowledge current. This growing research base makes it easier to compare opportunities and move capital toward the investments offering the best combination of quality, upside and risk.Next: Revisiting Investing in the Age of AIOne of the strongest-performing pieces in the scorecard was Investing in the Age of AI. The companies discussed in the article have returned 253% since publication.The original thesis clearly worked. The more important question today is whether it still offers attractive prospective returns.Since the article was published, several of the first-order AI beneficiaries have rerated sharply, capital spending has accelerated further, and new bottlenecks have emerged across memory, power generation, grid access, data-center infrastructure and AI cloud capacity.In my next write-up, I will revisit the original investments company by company: what I still own, what I have sold or reduced, where valuations have caught up with the fundamentals, and where I believe the market continues to underestimate the next stage of the AI buildout.What Paid Subscribers ReceivePaid subscribers get access to the full research process, not just the initial investment idea:In-depth company and thematic write-ups, including valuation work and complete archive accessQuarterly portfolio reviews with current position sizes, additions, reductions and exitsFollow-up updates when results, valuations or new evidence materially change an investment caseOngoing coverage of active and unresolved positions, including the decisions that follow key earnings releasesThe full update to Investing in the Age of AI, along with all future research and portfolio updates, will be available to paid subscribers.Subscribe now