(Skip to Figure 5 for the punchline if you can’t be bothered to read this short report)It’s ironic that, since the war in Iran sent US gas prices up by 33%, GM has been the world’s best-performing auto stock, despite being the largest maker of gas-guzzling full-size pickups and SUVs (see Figure 1). On a 12-month basis, GM is up 49% versus the S&P 500’s 19% rise, making it the top-performing large-cap auto stock after Hyundai (which is up 87% on its robotics theme), while Ford is the 2nd best at 22%. This is utterly insane, given how much oil futures are being manipulated (Brent crude is only up 28% since the war began, while diesel is up over 50%), and how much of an effect this is having on car-buying behavior: US hybrid sales are up 12% in the past 12 months, while full-size pickup sales—GM’s specialty—are down 2%. [While I predicted doom for GM and Ford due to rising gas prices in this report (here) back in April, I was wrong. Since then, however, I may have just been too early, given how global oil reserves have been run down, and there’s no end in sight to the war between the US and Iran]. The bulls are excited because GM had 2 consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises that led to higher 2026 guidance, but so did other carmakers with large US exposure like Ford, Honda, and Toyota. In fact, GM’s upward revision to its 2026 adjusted EBIT target was only 3.4%, which is tiny compared to Ford’s 10.5%, Toyota’s 13.3%, and Honda’s 30% guidance hikes. Figure 1: S&P Relative Share Price Performance Since Feb 28thSource: Bloomberg.