After its huge sell-off on bad Q2 results on July 22nd, Tesla shares have gradually recovered from their depths of underperformance this year, but saw a huge spike in call option volumes on Monday, which were 71% higher than average and nearly as high as on recent 0DTE Fridays (see Figure 1). The red bars in Figure 1 below show recent spikes on Fridays (August 7, 14, and 21st), while the yellow bar was on Monday, with unusually high volumes. Figure 1: Tesla’s Stock is Rising on Higher Options VolumesSource: Bloomberg. The Vested Interests have focused so much on Tesla recently—it’s up by 19% from its low of $298 on July 29th after horrible Q2 results the prior week—that the SpaceX recovery is starting to sputter out (see Figure 2). Without charting their respective options trading volumes, one would never realize that the Vested Interests have been busier propping up Tesla than they have been with SpaceX since its options market opened on July 16th. Figure 2: Tesla Options Volumes Outweigh SpaceXSource: Bloomberg. Ever since this second launch of the Cybercab was announced on August 22nd (Saturday), trading volumes in Tesla options have been elevated, and it’s clear that Musk wants Tesla back above $400, even if it means less ammo to manipulate SpaceX’s stock via their options market. Fun fact: SpaceX options volumes have only traded above their first-day volumes on July 16th just 4 times, and the weekly average is 55% below the 5-day moving average of 32 million contracts (Tesla is 32% above its 5-day average volumes). Hopes Are High Among Devout Cult MembersEver since Tesla tweeted about the September 3rd Cybercab event nearly 2 weeks ago, Tesla fans have become excited and try to outdo each other in what the event could reveal. Note that the tweet in Figure 3 below is from a Tesla executive who was compelled to admit that he didn’t know what “ODD” meant (for AVs). Figure 3: Tesla’s Head of AI Pumps the Cybercab Launch EventSource: Twitter. Figure 4: “Heavyweight” Tesla Expert Weighs in on TwitterSource: Twitter. Tesla events since “Autonomy Day” in 2019 have been “buy the rumor, sell the news” events, given how many lies are told. Figure 5 shows a list of previous events and how Tesla shares performed: From 2 weeks before the event, Tesla dropped by 5.7% on average, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by an average of 2.1%. The day after the events, Tesla options trading volume spiked to 131% of its 30-day moving average, while the stock fell by 2.1% versus the Nasdaq’s decline of 0.6%. Figure 5: Tesla’s Stock vs the Nasdaq 100 Before Previous Events Source: Bloomberg & MH research. Here is why Tesla’s previous events failed to raise the stock price:Autonomy Day (Apr 22, 2019): Musk claimed that Tesla would have over 1 million fully autonomous robotaxis within 12 months, allowing owners to go to sleep while their cars earned up to $30,000 a year in Tesla’s “Robotaxi Network”. Battery Day (Sep 22, 2020): Musk claimed that Tesla’s “revolutionary” 4680 battery cells would cut “production costs by 50%”. They have nearly 20% less range than batteries made by the Big 4, and they’re being cancelled in Europe by customers focused on range. It should be noted that Tesla fell by 10% the day after this event, as it had risen on heavy call-buying since August 11th, when they announced a 5-to-1 stock split on August 31st. Tesla AI Day Part 1 (Aug 19, 2021): Despite having zero physical hardware to show for (and someone dressed in a spandex robotic suit dancing during the opening of the event), Musk claimed Tesla would have a functioning humanoid that could seamlessly navigate a world built for humans and go to the grocery store for you by 2022. Tesla’s Optimus team quit in summer 2025. Tesla AI Day Part 2 (Sep 30, 2022): Musk claimed the Optimus humanoid robot was “nearly ready for mass production” and would cost “under $20,000”. Tesla’s Optimus team quit in summer 2025. Master Plan 3 (Mar 1, 2023): Musk promised a new EV platform that would lower production costs by 50% and generate profit margins as high as the Model Y at just a $25,000 price point. Tesla never produced a new model on a new platform that reduced costs by 50%. Cybercab’s Original Launch (Oct 10, 2024): Given that Musk needed Trump to win the 2024 Presidential Election just 3 weeks later, he also felt that Tesla’s share price would need to be higher, as the original Cybercab launch was a laughable event with lots of exposed “teleoperators”. It took massive amounts of call buying to keep Tesla from falling more than 1% the following day (see Figure 6). Figure 6: Tesla -1% Post-2024 Cybercab Event on Huge Call BuyingSource: Bloomberg & MH research.