Pitch Summary:
Paywalled (TriplePoint is encumbered by high fees, weak management, and a weaker loan book saddled by portfolio company bankruptcies and upside-down startups. The Bear Cave believes TriplePoint’s equity may be severely impaired, if it has any value at all.) Update 4/17/25 - Follow-up: TriplePoint’s old troubled loans have been replaced by new troubled loans and the company will need to make significant write-downs and additional di...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
During the quarter we purchased shares of Sylogist Ltd. and setting the stage (or table, if you will) for this investment are the many cooking shows in my rotation, where I love watching chefs prepare and talk about food. These shows offer many parallels to investing and portfolio management, one of which is that the greatest chefs understand that the best recipes are all about the ingredients. I believe Sylogist is following the r...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
As discussed, Polished remains in the midst of their sales process whereby I'd expect to hear some progress updates by the end of Q2 if not before, along with the company's long-awaited financials that should be released around the same time. A sale of the business is not a foregone conclusion, but noteworthy steps have been taken to right-size the company on the continued path toward profitable growth. I believe there are interest...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
I added to our position in Basic-Fit during the quarter as the business continues to execute in line with management's strategy and has recovered nicely since the pandemic forced them to close their doors for an extended period during 2020 and 2021. Basic Fit remains one of the most well-positioned businesses in our portfolio from a competitive standpoint and has been able to raise prices during a period when the majority of their ...
Pitch Summary:
Griffon Corp. was one of the positions in client portfolios undergoing a strategic review whereby significant value could be realized through the sale of one of the business segments or the outright sale of the entire company. As the macro-economic environment continued to worsen, putting pressure on housing related activity, increasing costs of capital, and raising questions in my mind about receiving a fair valuation for the busi...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
I've recently purchased for us two new investments and I'll briefly discuss one below: Matrix Services (MTRX) an Engineering & Construction (E&C) company that's adjacent to the hydrocarbon space. It bends metal, builds liquid and gas storage, conducts "turnaround" work at refineries, offers mining services and has an additional services business in electrical Transmission and Distribution. The company is currently trading around $5...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
I initially wrote about PESI in the 4Q19 letter. It pairs a fixed asset "scale" business – one of only three DOE contractors licensed to treat low level nuclear waste – with a services business comprised of engineers and folks-in-the-field with Tyvek suits and shovels. It is still run by the same CEO who was hired in 2017 to fix what was then a moribund business. He did, doubling sales from 4Q18's $49M ttm to $99M ttm at 3Q20. EBIT...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
However, while the fund maintains a significant investment in the economics of MSGE, I believe SPHR is the more attractively priced piece. In the spin, SPHR retained a 1/3rd stake in MSGE, resulting in SPHR owning ~0.5 shares of MSGE for every one share of SPHR. At market prices of $32 for MSGE and $30 for SPHR, the market is ascribing ~$14/sh. for the remainder of SPHR, or $490MM given 35MM shares outstanding. For this $490MM inve...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
STHO is a recent spinoff of a liquidating portfolio from the STAR/SAFE merger. As a quick back story, STAR was a financial business and REIT that made some poorly timed investments prior to the Great Financial Crisis. The business and stock eventually recovered, and the company spent the bulk of the 2010s cleaning up the prior mess and searching for new business ideas. During this time, the company started a business focused on gro...
Pitch Summary:
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): QBTS entered 2023 with substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern due to its low cash balance and limited access to its equity line of credit due to the precipitous decline of its stock price. QBTS reported its Q4 2022 results while issuing lower than expected revenue guidance along with a new debt facility from its largest shareholder, PSP, to provide operating runway for at...
Pitch Summary:
Arena Group Holdings, Inc. (AREN): AREN continued to collapse in 2023 following the acquisition of Men's Journal financed by a new debt facility from B. Riley. AREN reported overall positive results for Q4 2022 and provided positive guidance for 2023, but investors remain concerned with the company's balance sheet and over $100 million of debt to B. Riley that matures at the end of 2023, along with increasing interest rates of the ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Intevac, Inc. (IVAC): IVAC continued its positive momentum from Q4 2022 when it announced a deal with Corning that could lead to at least $100 million in revenue over five years, if IVAC's tool is qualified successfully in 2023. IVAC is also exploring the use of its coating tools for applications outside of consumer electronics where Corning would have exclusivity with that level of purchasing. 180 sold ~29% of its position in IVAC...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR): SNCR's stock started off 2023 increasing materially from its 2022 lows to over $1 per share before declining to $0.83 per share following its Q4 2022 earnings report that was below estimates. Subsequent to the earnings report, B. Riley Financial publicly issued a non-binding letter of intent to acquire SNCR for $1.15 per share. Diligence remained ongoing as of the end of Q1 2023. For the quart...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Alta Equipment Group, Inc. (ALTG): ALTG's stock began 2023 with a substantial increase in value into its earnings report for Q4 2022, with the stock closing at an all-time high of $19.86 on March 8, 2023. 180 sold ~92% of its position in ALTG in Q1 2023 for an average sale price of $17.58 per share. While ALTG reported strong results along with positive guidance and commentary that it has not seen any weakness in demand, ALTG's sto...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Potbelly Corporation (PBPB): PBPB pre-announced strong results for Q4 2022, across all financial and shop-level metrics that exceeded expectations and guidance. PBPB also announced the refinancing of its short-term debt facility to a 5-year term loan. PBPB announced expansion plans in New York City with a new development agreement and its first refranchise deal. 180 sold ~11% of its position in PBPB at an average sale price of $7.9...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
The worst detractor in Q1 was Leatt Corp. I highlighted my long thesis for Leatt Corp. (Leatt) in our Q4 Investor Letter, which you can find on our website, http://www.deepsailcapital.com. Leatt reported worse than expected revenue growth and net income in their Q4 earnings, which drove the stock down significantly. Leatt reported Q4 revenues of just $10.9m which was 53% below their 2021 Q4 revenues, and a Q4 net income loss of $1....
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Mercado Libre is an internet, technology, and payments company that services Latin America. Mercado Libre went public in 2007. Since the IPO, the company has grown from an eBay-like clone geared towards Latin America to a full suite of e-commerce, shops, payments, and logistics. Mercado Libre is a unique company that might be best described as 1/3 Alipay, 1/3 eBay, and 1/3 Amazon of Latin America (Latam). Aside from that, Mercado L...
Pitch Summary:
Approximately 14% of our portfolios are in Treasury Bills. Given that we are in a volatile and unpredictable environment we would like to preserve that 14% so that we can be offensive if the right opportunities present themselves. In order to buy RTO and add to CP we needed to sell something, and we chose to sell GOOGL. We have owned GOOGL since 2014 and it has been a great investment for us. Our original thesis was essentially tha...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
We have owned CP for about 2 years and we increased the size of our position during the quarter. On March 15th, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) approved CP's merger with Kansas City Southern (KCS). This was the first Class 1 Railroad merger since Canadian National acquired Illinois Central in 1999. This will also be the last major railroad merger as any future combinations would not be able to gain approval from the STB. CP/...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Rentokil Initial (RTO) is a UK based company that has pest control operations all over the world. They acquired Terminix on October 12, 2022. Prior to the Terminix deal RTO was the #3 pest control company in the US and approximately 44% of their sales were in North America. Today they are the #1 pest control company in the US and in the world. Almost 70% of sales are in the US. Regarding the pest control mix about 60% of pest contr...