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Market Outlook: Dr. Schilling sees roughly a 60% chance the U.S. is in or near recession, with cooling labor markets and weak hiring not yet reflected in asset prices.
Fed Policy: He views the market as overly focused on the Fed, noting policymakers are cautious and data-dependent given lags and uncertainty in economic signals.
Risk-Off Positioning: He advocates a risk-off portfolio—long dollar, long Treasuries, and short ...
Market Outlook: Dr. Schilling sees roughly a 60% chance the U.S. is in or near recession, with cooling labor markets and weak hiring not yet reflected in asset prices.
Fed Policy: He views the market as overly focused on the Fed, noting policymakers are cautious and data-dependent given lags and uncertainty in economic signals.
Risk-Off Positioning: He advocates a risk-off portfolio—long dollar, long Treasuries, and short commodities—avoiding speculative areas like AI-driven stocks.
US Dollar: Bullish on the dollar due to its global reserve status, deep usage (~88% of transactions), and lack of credible alternatives in the euro, yuan, or yen.
Labor & Households: Hiring is stagnant and household balance sheets are stretched by student and credit card debt; high-profile layoffs (UPS (UPS), Amazon (AMZN)) may catalyze broader corporate cuts.
Valuations & Bubbles: He doesn’t see a systemic bubble akin to subprime; pockets of speculation (AI/crypto) exist but are not economy-wide, though a typical recessionary 30% S&P drawdown is plausible.
Debt Risks: Warns about the global “debt bomb” as government borrowing expands without clear limits, raising questions about future demand for sovereign debt.
Economic Resilience: Despite risks, he emphasizes the adaptability of the U.S. and global economies, noting tariffs have been less damaging than feared due to supply-chain adjustments.
Hard Assets Rotation: The guest argues capital is shifting from financial assets into hard assets due to massive fiscal/monetary expansion and global policy excess.
Precious Metals: Bullish on gold and silver with central-bank demand and financial repression as drivers; suggests a staged buy strategy using GLD levels and highlights silver’s relative value.
Energy Equities: Strong pitch for natural gas and coal stocks, citi...
Hard Assets Rotation: The guest argues capital is shifting from financial assets into hard assets due to massive fiscal/monetary expansion and global policy excess.
Precious Metals: Bullish on gold and silver with central-bank demand and financial repression as drivers; suggests a staged buy strategy using GLD levels and highlights silver’s relative value.
Energy Equities: Strong pitch for natural gas and coal stocks, citing AI-driven power needs and high free-cash-flow yields; highlights AR and RRC as beneficiaries and expects these to outperform tech.
Oil Equities: Despite efforts to keep crude prices low, oil stocks remain cheap with structural supply limits; potential rotation from mega-cap tech into Energy supports OIH-type names longer term.
Copper Allocation: Advocates rotating a slice of gold gains into copper (e.g., COPX) given extreme gold/copper and gold/oil ratios, signaling early innings of a broader commodity bull.
AI Arms Race Risks: Notes vendor-financing dynamics and aggressive depreciation in semis and hyperscalers with potential blowoff risk; cites NVDA and META as central to the debate.
Credit Stress: Warns of a developing private credit and subprime-like cycle impacting software lenders and BDCs, alongside regional bank stress and consumer finance weakness.
Liquidity, Dollar, Leverage: Tightening liquidity and a likely weak-dollar trend favor commodities; elevated leverage via products like TQQQ and new high-beta ETFs raises blowoff and reversal risk.
Market Outlook: Fed cut 25 bps and ended QT, adding a potential buyer to Treasuries and stabilizing yields; seasonally strong months and buybacks position markets for a year-end rally despite early-December distribution softness.
AI Theme: Extensive discussion of AI’s dominance, narrow breadth, and bubble risk; if AI falters, the market could see a 30–40% drawdown given index concentration.
Data Centers & Power: Massive da...
Market Outlook: Fed cut 25 bps and ended QT, adding a potential buyer to Treasuries and stabilizing yields; seasonally strong months and buybacks position markets for a year-end rally despite early-December distribution softness.
AI Theme: Extensive discussion of AI’s dominance, narrow breadth, and bubble risk; if AI falters, the market could see a 30–40% drawdown given index concentration.
Data Centers & Power: Massive data center buildout faces power constraints (nuclear/nat gas likely needed), with risks around chip obsolescence and the need for modular upgrades.
Key Pitches: Adding to META after a one-time tax charge; already owning NVDA and AMZN with positive capex-driven momentum.
Defensive Stocks: Holding COST and WMT as ballast for potential rotation, with staples positioned to attract inflows if mega-cap tech corrects.
Energy: Building a thematic energy portfolio; near-term oil risk to $40–$45, but multi-year upside expected given AI-driven power needs and structural underinvestment.
Semiconductors: NVDA and chip demand central to AI; investors should be mindful of valuation excess and the potential for rapid hardware obsolescence.
Risk Management: Narrow breadth, declining money flows, and RS divergences warrant rebalancing and selective rotation into oversold, lower-beta areas.
Pitch Summary:
SLR Capital Corporation offers a 10.8% yield and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for equipment financing and asset-based lending. The company's portfolio is highly diversified and focused on senior secured loans, providing a strong repayment hierarchy.
BSD Analysis:
SLR Capital Corporation's focus on senior secured loans places it at the top of the repayment hierarchy, reducing credit risk. The company's dive...
Pitch Summary:
SLR Capital Corporation offers a 10.8% yield and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for equipment financing and asset-based lending. The company's portfolio is highly diversified and focused on senior secured loans, providing a strong repayment hierarchy.
BSD Analysis:
SLR Capital Corporation's focus on senior secured loans places it at the top of the repayment hierarchy, reducing credit risk. The company's diversification across 940 issuers and 110 industries minimizes exposure to any single borrower. With record ABL originations and a strong pipeline of new investments, SLRC is poised for continued growth. The company's liquidity position supports further expansion, and its leverage increase has been strategic to capitalize on market opportunities. Despite a slight shortfall in Q2 NII, the outlook for dividend coverage remains positive.
Pitch Summary:
Energy Transfer LP is a defensive investment in the midstream sector, offering a 7.9% yield. The company benefits from fee-based revenues, insulating it from commodity price swings, and has a strong pipeline of projects that promise rising cash flows.
BSD Analysis:
Energy Transfer LP is strategically positioned with its vast infrastructure to capitalize on the high levels of U.S. crude oil production. The company's operations are ...
Pitch Summary:
Energy Transfer LP is a defensive investment in the midstream sector, offering a 7.9% yield. The company benefits from fee-based revenues, insulating it from commodity price swings, and has a strong pipeline of projects that promise rising cash flows.
BSD Analysis:
Energy Transfer LP is strategically positioned with its vast infrastructure to capitalize on the high levels of U.S. crude oil production. The company's operations are supported by multi-year contracts, ensuring stable cash flows. Despite a higher leverage forecast, the company's yield and insider ownership align management's interests with shareholders. The company's involvement in data center projects and the AI boom further enhances its growth prospects. The recent increase in quarterly distribution reflects management's confidence in sustaining and growing shareholder returns.
Pitch Summary:
Alphabet Inc. is positioned as a leader in AI technology, leveraging its historical expertise and infrastructure to maintain dominance in the sector. The company's strategic focus on AI, cloud computing, and proprietary technology development, such as its chip stack, underpins its growth potential.
BSD Analysis:
Alphabet's AI capabilities are deeply integrated into its business model, with a focus on expanding its cloud computing ...
Pitch Summary:
Alphabet Inc. is positioned as a leader in AI technology, leveraging its historical expertise and infrastructure to maintain dominance in the sector. The company's strategic focus on AI, cloud computing, and proprietary technology development, such as its chip stack, underpins its growth potential.
BSD Analysis:
Alphabet's AI capabilities are deeply integrated into its business model, with a focus on expanding its cloud computing services and AI infrastructure. The company's strategic investments in AI and cloud technology are expected to drive future growth, despite competitive pressures from other tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft. The recent antitrust case resolution has allowed Alphabet to strengthen its market position, particularly with the Gemini app's rapid growth. However, the company's increased CapEx guidance and elevated valuation multiples suggest that investors should be cautious about potential overvaluation. Alphabet's ability to sustain its growth momentum in AI and cloud services will be critical in maintaining its competitive edge.
Pitch Summary:
Cipher Mining is strategically shifting its focus from traditional cryptocurrency mining to AI HPC workloads, leveraging its existing data center infrastructure. This pivot is supported by a significant partnership with Alphabet's Google Cloud and Fluidstack, which promises substantial revenue growth and diversification beyond the volatile crypto market.
BSD Analysis:
Cipher Mining's partnership with Google and Fluidstack involves...
Pitch Summary:
Cipher Mining is strategically shifting its focus from traditional cryptocurrency mining to AI HPC workloads, leveraging its existing data center infrastructure. This pivot is supported by a significant partnership with Alphabet's Google Cloud and Fluidstack, which promises substantial revenue growth and diversification beyond the volatile crypto market.
BSD Analysis:
Cipher Mining's partnership with Google and Fluidstack involves a 10-year deal to provide 168 MW of data center resources, potentially generating $3 billion in revenue. This move is expected to double the company's revenue growth rate, with analysts projecting a 72% increase in revenues to $261 million for the current year. Despite the risks associated with delivering the required capacity, Cipher's existing infrastructure and regulatory approvals at its Barber Lake site position it well to meet these commitments. The company's financial leverage, while slightly elevated, is manageable, and the backing from Google provides additional financial security. As Cipher transitions to AI workloads, its valuation multiples suggest a potential upside, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Pitch Summary:
Deutsche Bank has significantly outperformed the European financials sector in 2025, driven by strong Q3 results and a positive outlook for future earnings growth. The bank's robust capital position, attractive valuation, and potential for above-average EPS growth support a Buy rating.
BSD Analysis:
Deutsche Bank's Q3 2025 results highlight a strong performance across its key segments, particularly in the Private Bank, which has s...
Pitch Summary:
Deutsche Bank has significantly outperformed the European financials sector in 2025, driven by strong Q3 results and a positive outlook for future earnings growth. The bank's robust capital position, attractive valuation, and potential for above-average EPS growth support a Buy rating.
BSD Analysis:
Deutsche Bank's Q3 2025 results highlight a strong performance across its key segments, particularly in the Private Bank, which has shown significant profitability improvements. The bank's capital position is robust, with a CET1 ratio of 14.5%, allowing for potential share repurchases in 2026. Despite recent gains, Deutsche Bank remains attractively valued compared to its European peers, with a P/E multiple that is expected to decrease over the coming years. The bank's focus on optimizing its Private Bank segment and maintaining strong capital markets activity will be crucial for sustaining profitability. Key risks include potential economic downturns and changes in ECB monetary policy, but the bank's current position provides a cushion against these uncertainties.
Pitch Summary:
Alphabet's Google Cloud segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by a strong pipeline of AI-related contracts and infrastructure demand that exceeds supply. The company's full-stack AI solutions and partnerships position it well for sustained growth beyond FY26.
BSD Analysis:
Alphabet's cloud backlog has reached $155 billion, indicating a 30%+ growth trajectory through FY26. The company's AI solutions are being widely ad...
Pitch Summary:
Alphabet's Google Cloud segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by a strong pipeline of AI-related contracts and infrastructure demand that exceeds supply. The company's full-stack AI solutions and partnerships position it well for sustained growth beyond FY26.
BSD Analysis:
Alphabet's cloud backlog has reached $155 billion, indicating a 30%+ growth trajectory through FY26. The company's AI solutions are being widely adopted, with over 70% of customers utilizing them. Financially, Alphabet's cloud revenue increased by 34% year-over-year, with operating income up 85%. The company's strategic investments in AI infrastructure, including custom TPUs and partnerships with top AI labs, are expected to drive long-term growth. Despite rising CapEx, the potential for high-margin recurring revenues from the cloud backlog provides visibility for future valuations. Alphabet's transformation from an advertising-centric company to an AI infrastructure leader is underway, with cloud services now comprising a significant portion of its revenue.
Pitch Summary:
Qualcomm's entry into the AI market with its AI200 and AI250 chips presents a significant growth opportunity. Analysts suggest that capturing even a small share of the projected $500 billion AI accelerator market could substantially boost revenues.
BSD Analysis:
Qualcomm's strategic move into AI technology aligns with the industry's shift towards AI-driven solutions. The company's expertise in semiconductors and wireless technolog...
Pitch Summary:
Qualcomm's entry into the AI market with its AI200 and AI250 chips presents a significant growth opportunity. Analysts suggest that capturing even a small share of the projected $500 billion AI accelerator market could substantially boost revenues.
BSD Analysis:
Qualcomm's strategic move into AI technology aligns with the industry's shift towards AI-driven solutions. The company's expertise in semiconductors and wireless technology provides a strong foundation for success in the AI market. With expected earnings per share of $2.86 and revenue of $10.74 billion, Qualcomm is positioned for substantial growth. The potential to add $10-$15 billion in revenues from AI initiatives underscores the upside potential. Limited downside risk makes Qualcomm an attractive investment as it capitalizes on emerging AI trends.
Pitch Summary:
Palantir is expected to report strong third-quarter results, driven by its expanding AI partnerships and defense contracts. The company is benefiting from increased demand from government and enterprise clients.
BSD Analysis:
Palantir's strategic focus on AI and defense sectors positions it well for future growth. The company's collaboration with Boeing to provide AI tools for defense and space divisions highlights its capability ...
Pitch Summary:
Palantir is expected to report strong third-quarter results, driven by its expanding AI partnerships and defense contracts. The company is benefiting from increased demand from government and enterprise clients.
BSD Analysis:
Palantir's strategic focus on AI and defense sectors positions it well for future growth. The company's collaboration with Boeing to provide AI tools for defense and space divisions highlights its capability to secure significant contracts. With expected earnings of $0.17 per share, a 70% year-over-year increase, and revenue growth of 50.2%, Palantir is demonstrating robust financial performance. The firm's ability to leverage AI in its offerings could further enhance its competitive edge and market share in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.
Pitch Summary:
Figure Technology Solutions is uniquely positioned as the only publicly traded blockchain-enabled consumer lender. The company leverages blockchain technology to enhance efficiency in consumer loan origination and sales, offering a significant growth opportunity in the credit tokenization domain. However, the current valuation appears full, limiting upside potential.
BSD Analysis:
Figure Technology Solutions is capitalizing on the...
Pitch Summary:
Figure Technology Solutions is uniquely positioned as the only publicly traded blockchain-enabled consumer lender. The company leverages blockchain technology to enhance efficiency in consumer loan origination and sales, offering a significant growth opportunity in the credit tokenization domain. However, the current valuation appears full, limiting upside potential.
BSD Analysis:
Figure Technology Solutions is capitalizing on the expanding total addressable market (TAM) in the US consumer credit sector by extending its blockchain capabilities beyond HELOCs to new loan products and potentially adjacent asset classes. The company's proprietary Loan Origination System (LOS) and tokenization infrastructure provide a competitive edge by automating and digitizing the underwriting process, significantly reducing costs and improving efficiency. Despite its strong market position and innovative approach, the stock's current valuation suggests limited upside, leading to a 'Hold' recommendation. The company's future growth prospects are supported by its comprehensive blockchain ecosystem, which includes initiatives like Figure Exchange and Democratized Prime, aimed at creating a robust capital market platform.
Pitch Summary:
Hancock Whitney is a solid investment due to its above-average profitability, strong credit quality, and robust capital position. Despite recent sluggish volume growth, the bank's valuation remains attractive, trading at less than 10x forward earnings. The bank's ability to maintain a healthy return on tangible equity and its flexibility in capital allocation, including dividends, buybacks, and potential M&A, support a bullish outl...
Pitch Summary:
Hancock Whitney is a solid investment due to its above-average profitability, strong credit quality, and robust capital position. Despite recent sluggish volume growth, the bank's valuation remains attractive, trading at less than 10x forward earnings. The bank's ability to maintain a healthy return on tangible equity and its flexibility in capital allocation, including dividends, buybacks, and potential M&A, support a bullish outlook.
BSD Analysis:
Hancock Whitney has demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with a notable 15% return on tangible common equity in the third quarter. The bank's credit quality remains strong, with low net charge-off ratios, and its capital position is robust, providing a cushion for potential economic downturns. Despite challenges in volume growth, the bank's net interest margin has benefited from asset repricing, and its recent acquisition of Sabal Trust Company has bolstered non-interest revenue. The bank's capital surplus offers opportunities for increased shareholder returns or strategic growth initiatives. Overall, Hancock Whitney's current valuation reflects its potential for long-term value creation.
Pitch Summary:
Monday.com has been a strong performer in the SaaS space, known for its innovative and flexible platform. However, the company faces challenges as growth slows and competition intensifies, particularly from larger, AI-driven platforms. While Monday.com continues to expand its product offerings and customer base, its lack of deep integration and proprietary data advantages may hinder its long-term competitiveness.
BSD Analysis:
Mon...
Pitch Summary:
Monday.com has been a strong performer in the SaaS space, known for its innovative and flexible platform. However, the company faces challenges as growth slows and competition intensifies, particularly from larger, AI-driven platforms. While Monday.com continues to expand its product offerings and customer base, its lack of deep integration and proprietary data advantages may hinder its long-term competitiveness.
BSD Analysis:
Monday.com has demonstrated impressive growth and financial health, with strong revenue and free cash flow margins. However, the company's reliance on speed of innovation as its primary competitive edge is increasingly challenged by larger incumbents with deeper integrations and proprietary data. The shift towards AI-driven automation could favor these larger platforms, potentially compressing Monday's market opportunity. Despite its efforts to integrate AI and expand its product suite, Monday's position as an overlay tool rather than a core system of record may limit its ability to sustain premium growth. The company's future success will depend on its ability to secure a core role within enterprise IT stacks before the market consolidates further.
Pitch Summary:
Despite a disappointing quarter with negative earnings, Coffee Holding Company shows strong sales growth and strategic cost-saving measures, such as closing a redundant facility. The stock is trading around its net tangible asset value, providing a potential floor for its price.
BSD Analysis:
Coffee Holding Company reported a challenging quarter with a negative EPS of -$0.21, but the 27% YoY sales growth to $23.9 million is a posi...
Pitch Summary:
Despite a disappointing quarter with negative earnings, Coffee Holding Company shows strong sales growth and strategic cost-saving measures, such as closing a redundant facility. The stock is trading around its net tangible asset value, providing a potential floor for its price.
BSD Analysis:
Coffee Holding Company reported a challenging quarter with a negative EPS of -$0.21, but the 27% YoY sales growth to $23.9 million is a positive indicator. The closure of the Massachusetts facility in favor of the new East Coast Empire facility is expected to save $700k annually, which could improve future profitability. The company faced a $2 million unrealized loss on coffee price hedges, but with coffee futures rebounding, this may correct in the next quarter. The stock is currently in a trading range, with NTAV acting as a support level, and it remains in an uptrend since April of last year. The consolidation after a strong 2024 suggests potential for future growth.
Pitch Summary:
GetBusy's recent share price decline presents an opportunity to invest in a microcap with high asymmetric upside, driven by its recurring revenue model and U.S. expansion plans.
BSD Analysis:
GetBusy's 3.7% share price decline is seen as a temporary setback, with its focus on workflow software solutions and recurring revenue model supporting its growth potential. The company's strategic initiatives, including U.S. expansion and po...
Pitch Summary:
GetBusy's recent share price decline presents an opportunity to invest in a microcap with high asymmetric upside, driven by its recurring revenue model and U.S. expansion plans.
BSD Analysis:
GetBusy's 3.7% share price decline is seen as a temporary setback, with its focus on workflow software solutions and recurring revenue model supporting its growth potential. The company's strategic initiatives, including U.S. expansion and potential sale of SmartVault, highlight its high asymmetric upside over the next three years. GetBusy's ability to capitalize on market trends and enhance its market presence makes it a compelling investment choice. The company's focus on discovering hidden compounders and strategic growth initiatives reinforces its long-term investment thesis.
Pitch Summary:
Constellation Software's recent share price decline amid broader software volatility is seen as a buying opportunity, with its strong acquisition track record supporting its long-term growth potential.
BSD Analysis:
Constellation Software's 10% share price decline is attributed to broader software market volatility, but its position as a serial acquirer with over 200 tuck-in acquisitions since 2006 highlights its strategic capabil...
Pitch Summary:
Constellation Software's recent share price decline amid broader software volatility is seen as a buying opportunity, with its strong acquisition track record supporting its long-term growth potential.
BSD Analysis:
Constellation Software's 10% share price decline is attributed to broader software market volatility, but its position as a serial acquirer with over 200 tuck-in acquisitions since 2006 highlights its strategic capabilities. The company's focus on vertical market software solutions and 25%+ CAGR support its long-term growth prospects. Despite the current valuation challenges, Constellation's market position and acquisition-driven growth strategy make it a compelling investment choice. The company's ability to navigate market fluctuations and capitalize on growth opportunities reinforces its investment thesis.
Pitch Summary:
Cogent Communications Holdings' recent share price increase is driven by telecom sector rebound and anticipation for upcoming earnings, supported by its strong dividend yield.
BSD Analysis:
Cogent Communications Holdings' 8.9% share price increase reflects positive market sentiment in the telecom sector and anticipation for its Q3 earnings. The company's 52nd consecutive dividend hike and AI-wavelength demand underscore its strong...
Pitch Summary:
Cogent Communications Holdings' recent share price increase is driven by telecom sector rebound and anticipation for upcoming earnings, supported by its strong dividend yield.
BSD Analysis:
Cogent Communications Holdings' 8.9% share price increase reflects positive market sentiment in the telecom sector and anticipation for its Q3 earnings. The company's 52nd consecutive dividend hike and AI-wavelength demand underscore its strong market position and yield appeal. Cogent's focus on maintaining its competitive edge and capitalizing on market trends supports its long-term growth potential. The company's strategic initiatives and strong financial performance make it a compelling investment choice.
Pitch Summary:
LVMH's strong Q3 earnings and brand resilience amid China's recovery highlight its dominant position in the luxury sector, supporting its long-term growth potential.
BSD Analysis:
LVMH's 17.8% share price increase is driven by strong Q3 earnings, including 9% organic revenue growth led by fashion and leather goods. The company's brand moat and 25%+ margins reinforce its position as a luxury bellwether. LVMH's strategic focus on br...
Pitch Summary:
LVMH's strong Q3 earnings and brand resilience amid China's recovery highlight its dominant position in the luxury sector, supporting its long-term growth potential.
BSD Analysis:
LVMH's 17.8% share price increase is driven by strong Q3 earnings, including 9% organic revenue growth led by fashion and leather goods. The company's brand moat and 25%+ margins reinforce its position as a luxury bellwether. LVMH's strategic focus on brand strength and market expansion amid China's recovery supports its long-term growth prospects. The company's ability to navigate market fluctuations and capitalize on luxury demand trends makes it a compelling investment choice.
Pitch Summary:
The Trade Desk's recent leadership appointment and programmatic edge position it well for continued growth, supported by CTV tailwinds and strong NRR.
BSD Analysis:
The Trade Desk's 4.1% share price gain reflects its strong market position and growth potential in the advertising technology sector. The appointment of Anders Mortensen as Chief Revenue Officer enhances its leadership team, while its programmatic advertising solutions...
Pitch Summary:
The Trade Desk's recent leadership appointment and programmatic edge position it well for continued growth, supported by CTV tailwinds and strong NRR.
BSD Analysis:
The Trade Desk's 4.1% share price gain reflects its strong market position and growth potential in the advertising technology sector. The appointment of Anders Mortensen as Chief Revenue Officer enhances its leadership team, while its programmatic advertising solutions continue to drive independent growth. The company's focus on CTV tailwinds and 20%+ NRR highlight its strategic growth initiatives. The Trade Desk's ability to capitalize on market trends and maintain its competitive edge makes it a compelling investment choice.
Bull
