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Pitch Summary:
Siemens Energy, a leading gas-turbine manufacturer, is well placed to benefit from rising power demand. AI data centers are driving a step-up in electricity consumption and, given extended grid-connection timelines, gas turbines are uniquely positioned to meet this need through rapid deployment, low execution risk, and reliable output. Beyond AI demand, there are additional structural drivers including coal-to-gas transitions, rene...
Pitch Summary:
Siemens Energy, a leading gas-turbine manufacturer, is well placed to benefit from rising power demand. AI data centers are driving a step-up in electricity consumption and, given extended grid-connection timelines, gas turbines are uniquely positioned to meet this need through rapid deployment, low execution risk, and reliable output. Beyond AI demand, there are additional structural drivers including coal-to-gas transitions, renewables intermittency support, and load growth tied to EV adoption and reshoring.
BSD Analysis:
Siemens Energy is the kind of turnaround story that tests your patience right up until it doesn’t — and we’re getting close to that inflection point. The wind-turbine mess at Gamesa has dominated headlines, but underneath the chaos, the grid and gas businesses are quietly booming on the back of global electrification and grid modernization. High-voltage transmission demand is off the charts, and Siemens Energy sits in the sweet spot as utilities race to upgrade infrastructure that’s decades overdue. The balance sheet scare forced discipline, and now profitability is finally starting to reflect the parts of the business that actually matter. Once Gamesa stabilizes — even at mediocre margins — Siemens Energy’s earnings profile will look dramatically better than the market is pricing. This is an electrification pure-play hiding behind a wind-turbine soap opera. If execution stays on track, the valuation gap could close fast.
Pitch Summary:
TSMC is the world’s leading manufacturer of semiconductors, including those used in AI applications. Whilst the company has benefitted from the current demand environment, its position as a capacity-constrained near-monopoly in leading-edge chipmaking helps their ability to allocate capacity towards a variety of long-term secular growth trends if required.
BSD Analysis:
TSMC remains the irreplaceable engine of global semiconductor...
Pitch Summary:
TSMC is the world’s leading manufacturer of semiconductors, including those used in AI applications. Whilst the company has benefitted from the current demand environment, its position as a capacity-constrained near-monopoly in leading-edge chipmaking helps their ability to allocate capacity towards a variety of long-term secular growth trends if required.
BSD Analysis:
TSMC remains the irreplaceable engine of global semiconductor innovation, with unmatched leadership at advanced nodes and the capacity scale needed to satisfy surging AI-compute demand. Revenue growth near 40% and margins north of 58% highlight the advantage of being the only foundry capable of delivering leading-edge yields at commercial scale. Its roadmap—3nm today, 2nm ramping—is pulling the entire tech ecosystem forward, giving TSMC monopoly-like pricing power in high-performance compute. Geographic diversification of fabs strengthens geopolitical resilience without diluting margin profile. The market still undervalues how durable TSMC’s competitive moat is as AI accelerators, edge compute, and advanced packaging all converge. With 20–25% earnings CAGR visibility and a valuation that remains reasonable relative to strategic importance, TSMC stands out as one of the clearest long-duration compounders in global tech.
Pitch Summary:
Crane NXT (CXT) was initiated in the Small Cap Strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. The company has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It now operates through two segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI), which provides cash validation, payment acceptance, vending, kiosk automation, and cash processing systems across retail, gaming...
Pitch Summary:
Crane NXT (CXT) was initiated in the Small Cap Strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. The company has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It now operates through two segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI), which provides cash validation, payment acceptance, vending, kiosk automation, and cash processing systems across retail, gaming, and financial institutions, and Security & Authentication Technologies, which delivers anti-counterfeiting technologies for banknotes, identification documents, and branded goods. Since the spin, CXT has made two strategic acquisitions—OpSec Security (2024) and De La Rue’s Authentication Solutions (2025)—expanding its reach into brand protection, credentials, and digital authentication. The company’s proprietary micro-optic technologies are used by over 50 central banks. Management is applying the proven Crane Business System framework and maintaining conservative leverage. We believe CXT is well positioned in high-margin markets where security, authenticity, and trusted transactions are paramount. Its differentiated technology and disciplined capital deployment make for a compelling long-term opportunity.
BSD Analysis:
Crane NXT is the high-margin, high-moat slice of the old Crane Co. portfolio — the part that actually deserved to be a standalone business. Its currency validation, authentication, and payment security technologies operate in niches where reliability isn’t optional, giving Crane NXT a defensible moat that newcomers can’t cheaply replicate. Cash flow is strong, margins are elite, and the company has the balance sheet flexibility to pursue disciplined bolt-on acquisitions in fragmented security markets. Investors slapped a “low-growth” label on it at the spin, but the secular demand for secure payments, anti-counterfeiting tech, and automated currency systems is anything but shrinking. Execution has been tight, cost structure is improving, and mix shift toward software-heavy validation tools is quietly adding incremental margin. At today’s valuation, the stock is priced like a sleepy industrial even though it behaves more like a cash-efficient security tech platform. The rerating potential is real if management keeps delivering.
Pitch Summary:
Stepan Company (SCL) was a detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter. The company continues to execute on its strategy to grow its functional surfactants, which serve the agriculture and oilfield market, as well as its Tier 2 and Tier 3 surfactant volumes, which represents sales to smaller customers formulating specialty products. The second quarter results reflected solid growth in these end markets. However, weakne...
Pitch Summary:
Stepan Company (SCL) was a detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter. The company continues to execute on its strategy to grow its functional surfactants, which serve the agriculture and oilfield market, as well as its Tier 2 and Tier 3 surfactant volumes, which represents sales to smaller customers formulating specialty products. The second quarter results reflected solid growth in these end markets. However, weakness in the commodity consumer product end markets offset growth in these areas, and overall Surfactant segment volumes were down 1%. In the Polymer segment, volumes were up 7% driven by strength in the North American and European rigid polyols end markets despite continued headwinds from a weak macro environment and tariff uncertainty. As of the end of the second quarter, SCL generated $197 million in trailing 12-month EBITDA, and management makes a strong case that the business should generate $60 million quarterly as some market headwinds abate and the recently installed new alkoxylation capacity in Pasadena, TX, comes online later this year. SCL ended the second quarter with net debt to trailing 12-months EBITDA of 2.9x, and we expect this ratio to come down now that the heavy investment period is behind them. Luis Rojo was promoted to the CEO position in October 2024 after serving as CFO for 6 years, and we have been impressed with his execution of the business strategy so far. SCL is recognized as an industry leader in formulating new products and applications for its surfactants and polymers, and we believe the company has developed valuable, long-term relationships with customers that will continue to generate steady cash flow.
BSD Analysis:
Stepan is one of those under-the-radar specialty chemical companies that the market consistently misprices because the story isn’t flashy — but the fundamentals are rock solid. The surfactant business is predictable, cash generative, and embedded in everyday products, giving Stepan a defensive backbone competitors envy. The real upside comes from polymers and specialty ingredients, where margins are structurally higher and customer stickiness is almost absurd. Capex has been elevated, but for the right reasons — capacity expansion, efficiency upgrades, and positioning for long-term megatrends like insulation, agriculture, and personal care. Volumes took a hit during the recent industrial slowdown, but early indicators suggest a recovery is forming just beneath the surface. The balance sheet is clean enough for opportunistic growth, and Stepan’s disciplined culture keeps ROIC healthy even in sloppy macro environments. As industrial activity normalizes, Stepan’s margin mix and operating leverage have room to outperform consensus.
Pitch Summary:
Darling Ingredients (DAR) was the top detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter after being a top contributor in the second quarter. DAR is the largest publicly traded company turning edible by-products and food waste into sustainable products and a leading producer of renewable energy. DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at o...
Pitch Summary:
Darling Ingredients (DAR) was the top detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter after being a top contributor in the second quarter. DAR is the largest publicly traded company turning edible by-products and food waste into sustainable products and a leading producer of renewable energy. DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at or near a bottom. We see several fundamental and regulatory changes supporting our view that top line and bottom-line results will inflect higher in 2026. Recent announcements from DC and from the company are supportive of our view. The base Food and Feed businesses are providing significant support for the struggling Fuel business – a natural hedge we have long discussed. In addition, the company’s vertically integrated supply chain and low-cost position have proven resilient in the face of such headwinds. We expect results for the remainder of 2025 to be challenged and believe this reality is more than accounted for in today’s share price. As the cycle turns, the operational improvements made the past couple of years together with an upgraded asset base will, in our opinion, provide a substantial boost to operating profitability and discretionary cash flow. While frustrated with the recent performance, we do believe some meaningful relief is on the horizon.
BSD Analysis:
Darling Ingredients went from being a niche rendering business to a renewable diesel powerhouse — and the market still hasn’t figured out how to price the hybrid. The Diamond Green Diesel JV threw off absurd amounts of cash during the peak spread years, and while margins have normalized, the long-term economics still look far better than the doom-and-gloom narrative implies. Feedstock volatility hammered sentiment, but Darling’s global sourcing network gives it an edge most biofuel players can’t replicate. The core ingredients business remains a quiet cash generator, with stable volumes and pricing power that smooths out the renewable volatility. Leverage is elevated but manageable, and deleveraging should accelerate as spreads stabilize and new capacity ramps. The market is treating Darling like a busted ESG trade, ignoring its unique vertical integration and real options in sustainable aviation fuel. If renewable fuel sentiment even partially recovers, the multiple on this thing has real room to expand.
Pitch Summary:
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) was a top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12-18 months to increase capa...
Pitch Summary:
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) was a top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12-18 months to increase capacity by roughly 80%. The balance sheet is in good shape with ND/Adj. EBITDA ~1x, and management plans to pause acquisitions for the next few quarters as it integrates three recent acquisitions, explores the sale of its light duty vehicle heat exchanger business, and executes on its data center investments. We remain impressed by CEO Neil Brinker and the strong leadership team he has assembled, and we believe they are well positioned to continue creating meaningful shareholder value.
BSD Analysis:
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is the ultimate AI data center picks-and-shovels play, leveraging a sudden, massive shift in power demand to drive a structural re-rating. The company's thermal management expertise has made it a critical enabler for hyperscale customers who need advanced cooling for their energy-intensive AI workloads. Management is betting the farm on this trend, committing $100 million in CapEx over 12-18 months to nearly double data center capacity by 80%, a move that should guarantee multi-year secular growth visibility. Data center revenue is skyrocketing, growing 119% year-over-year in recent periods and projected to grow over 60% in fiscal 2026 alone. Despite the rapid expansion, the balance sheet remains strong with Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA near 1x, and the company is pursuing opportunistic asset sales (like the light-duty heat exchanger business) to improve focus and fund the AI growth engine. Trading at an EV/EBITDA under 10x, the valuation has not yet fully discounted the incredible incremental margins and potential for $2 billion in data center revenue by Fiscal 2028.
Pitch Summary:
Brink’s Company (BCO) was the top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions ...
Pitch Summary:
Brink’s Company (BCO) was the top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions and convert whitespace opportunities in retail. These higher-margin, recurring revenue businesses now represent over 25% of total company revenue and are expected to continue delivering double digit organic growth for the foreseeable future. Free cash flow continues to improve with over $100 million generated in the quarter on EBITDA growth, continued capital efficiency and strong working capital performance. In addition, management has been disciplined and opportunistic with capital deployment – buying back $130mm in stock year to date with $85mm of that coming in 2q. We believe the current price affords share owners a nice opportunity to compound double digit returns over our investment time horizon with a strong balance sheet providing a backdrop for cash flow growth and a predictable and effective capital allocation strategy.
BSD Analysis:
Brink's Company (BCO) is in the midst of a critical business model transformation, pivoting from traditional armored transport to a recurring-revenue security platform. The core thesis is driven by the rapid growth of its high-margin ATM Managed Services (AMS) and Digital Retail Solutions (DRS) segments. These tech-enabled services, including smart safes and full ATM outsourcing, are now a significant portion of total revenue and are growing at a double-digit rate. Management is aggressively pushing the outsourcing trend with financial institutions and capturing retail "whitespace" opportunities, accelerating the shift toward a more predictable, high-multiple services model. The company's disciplined capital deployment, including buybacks that have reduced the share count by 5% year-to-date, amplifies per-share returns alongside accelerating cash flow. With EBITDA margins expanding and its EV/EBITDA near 10x, this compounding story is well-positioned for continued upside as secular trends in cash logistics and managed services play out.
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a new position in Crane NXT (CXT) in the SMID Cap strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. We owned the parent company for several years, so we know the business well. CXT has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It operates through two primary segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) and Security & Authentication Technologi...
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a new position in Crane NXT (CXT) in the SMID Cap strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. We owned the parent company for several years, so we know the business well. CXT has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It operates through two primary segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) and Security & Authentication Technologies. CPI provides a suite of payment solutions, including cash validation, vending, and kiosk automation, while the Security segment is a global leader in anti-counterfeiting technologies for banknotes and identification documents. Following acquisitions of OpSec Security and De La Rue’s Authentication Solutions, CXT expanded into brand protection and digital authentication. The company maintains a conservative balance sheet and consistent cash generation. We believe CXT’s differentiated technology provides pricing power and durable high margins, making for a compelling long-term opportunity.
BSD Analysis:
Crane NXT is emerging as a high-quality compounder in secure authentication and automated payment technologies, a niche where proprietary IP and customer trust create real moats. The company’s expansion into brand protection and digital authentication via recent acquisitions broadens its recurring-revenue base and strengthens pricing power. With a conservative balance sheet and consistent cash generation, CXT has the capacity to pursue strategic M&A without stretching risk. Its dual-segment portfolio—Crane Payment Innovations and Security & Authentication—benefits from long-cycle demand tied to anti-counterfeiting, banknote validation, and automated retail. Margins are already strong, and management’s operating discipline should push returns higher as integration benefits compound. Trading at a modest multiple for a business with durable competitive advantages, CXT looks well-positioned for steady, multi-year value creation.
Pitch Summary:
WSO is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration products in North America. While second-quarter results held up relatively well with revenue down 4% and operating income up 1%, equipment volumes have been weaker than expected, declining roughly 12% year to date. Management attributes this primarily to lower new construction activity and a consumer shift from replacement to repair, noting that Watsco’s...
Pitch Summary:
WSO is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration products in North America. While second-quarter results held up relatively well with revenue down 4% and operating income up 1%, equipment volumes have been weaker than expected, declining roughly 12% year to date. Management attributes this primarily to lower new construction activity and a consumer shift from replacement to repair, noting that Watsco’s market share remains stable. We view these headwinds as temporary and continue to believe WSO’s competitive position within the HVAC/R distribution market remains strong. With no debt and $293 million in cash and short-term investments, the company is well positioned to pursue acquisitions across the highly fragmented $74 billion North American HVAC/R distribution landscape. We remain confident in Watsco’s long runway for both organic and inorganic growth, its owner-oriented culture, and its competitive advantages that increase with scale.
BSD Analysis:
Watsco continues to demonstrate why it’s the dominant HVAC/R distributor, absorbing macro softness with a balance sheet and operating model built for durability. Equipment volumes remain pressured by weak new-construction activity, but share has held firm, and the company’s repair-and-replacement mix offers built-in resilience. With nearly $300M in cash and no debt, Watsco is positioned to be the consolidator of choice in a fragmented $70B distribution market—an advantage the market rarely prices appropriately. Gross margins have proven sticky despite volume headwinds, reflecting scale, vendor alignment, and disciplined execution. As construction trends stabilize, Watsco should see operating leverage return quickly given its asset-light structure. The long-term algorithm—steady mid-single-digit organic growth plus accretive M&A—remains fully intact and underappreciated at today’s valuation.
Pitch Summary:
DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at or near a bottom. We see several fundamental and regulatory changes supporting our view that top-line and bottom-line results will inflect higher in 2026. Recent announcements from DC and from the company are supportive of our view. The base Food and Feed businesses are providing significant support for...
Pitch Summary:
DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at or near a bottom. We see several fundamental and regulatory changes supporting our view that top-line and bottom-line results will inflect higher in 2026. Recent announcements from DC and from the company are supportive of our view. The base Food and Feed businesses are providing significant support for the struggling Fuel business – a natural hedge we have long discussed. In addition, the company’s vertically integrated supply chain and low-cost position have proven resilient in the face of such headwinds. We expect results for the remainder of 2025 to be challenged and believe this reality is more than accounted for in today’s share price. As the cycle turns, the operational improvements made the past couple of years together with an upgraded asset base will, in our opinion, provide a substantial boost to operating profitability and discretionary cash flow. While frustrated with the recent performance, we do believe some meaningful relief is on the horizon.
BSD Analysis:
Darling is sitting at what appears to be the bottom of a multi-year downcycle, with fundamentals finally starting to inflect in the right direction. The company’s vertically integrated supply chain has proven more resilient than bears expected, with the Food and Feed segments providing a natural hedge while the Fuel business absorbed the regulatory and pricing hits. With Washington signaling clearer renewable-fuel policy and the company’s upgraded asset base ready to scale, 2026 sets up as a meaningful margin-recovery year. Cash flow remains understated relative to normalized conditions, and the current valuation bakes in an overly pessimistic view of long-term renewable feedstock demand. As operational improvements flow through and RIN/credit markets stabilize, DAR has the potential to surprise to the upside. The setup is classic cyclical mispricing: ugly optics near the trough, strong earnings snapback potential on the other side.
Pitch Summary:
BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions and convert whitespace opportunities in retail. These higher-margin, recurring revenue businesses ...
Pitch Summary:
BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions and convert whitespace opportunities in retail. These higher-margin, recurring revenue businesses now represent over 25% of total company revenue and are expected to continue delivering double-digit organic growth for the foreseeable future. Free cash flow continues to improve with over $100 million generated in the quarter on EBITDA growth, continued capital efficiency, and strong working capital performance. Management has been disciplined and opportunistic with capital deployment – buying back $130mm in stock year to date with $85mm of that coming in 2Q. We believe the current price affords share owners a nice opportunity to compound double-digit returns over our investment time horizon with a strong balance sheet providing a backdrop for cash flow growth and a predictable and effective capital allocation strategy.
BSD Analysis:
Brink’s is the definition of an overlooked cash-flow machine operating in an industry everyone loves to declare dead. Cash usage isn’t disappearing — it’s stabilizing — and in emerging markets it’s still growing, which means Brink’s armored-transport and security franchise isn’t going anywhere. The company has been cleaning up operations, driving higher margins, and pushing recurring, tech-enabled solutions that blunt the labor and logistics volatility that used to define the business. Add in disciplined capital allocation and steady deleveraging, and Brink’s suddenly looks a lot less like a legacy operator and a lot more like a stable compounding platform. The market slaps a “secular decline” discount on the stock despite strong cash flow, resilient demand, and a business model with real barriers to entry. If execution stays tight and the company continues digitizing the physical cash ecosystem, Brink’s can rerate meaningfully from here. The disconnect between perception and fundamentals is the opportunity.
Pitch Summary:
MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12–18 months to increase capacity by roughly 80%. The balance sheet is in good shape with ND/Adj. EBITDA ~1x, and management plans to paus...
Pitch Summary:
MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12–18 months to increase capacity by roughly 80%. The balance sheet is in good shape with ND/Adj. EBITDA ~1x, and management plans to pause acquisitions for the next few quarters as it integrates three recent acquisitions, explores the sale of its light-duty vehicle heat exchanger business, and executes on its data center investments. We remain impressed by CEO Neil Brinker and the strong leadership team he has assembled, and we believe they are well positioned to continue creating meaningful shareholder value.
BSD Analysis:
Modine went from being a dusty industrial to an AI-data-center darling almost overnight — and the pivot is real. Its thermal management solutions are now mission-critical as hyperscalers scramble to cool next-gen GPU racks that run hotter than anything data centers have ever handled. Modine has the engineering pedigree, manufacturing scale, and delivery reliability that unproven competitors simply can’t match. The secular growth in AI thermal demand is so strong that even Modine’s “old” industrial and HVAC segments suddenly look like stable ballast rather than drags. Margins have exploded under the company’s transformation plan, and Modine is posting the kind of EPS growth the market would normally slap a software multiple on. Yet the stock still trades like a mid-cap cyclical with a questionable past. If AI infrastructure buildouts stay on their current trajectory, Modine is one of the few names with both torque and credibility — a rare combination.
Pitch Summary:
In terms of partial sales, I trimmed Wayfair(W), Ferguson (FERG), and Dream Finders Homes (DFH) due to their exposure to new home construction. I still believe there is value in the new home building sector, but trimmed some positions where I think exposure to new home construction is not being fully appreciated. Ferguson is a great business but does have significant exposure to new home construction, and a premium valuation. The c...
Pitch Summary:
In terms of partial sales, I trimmed Wayfair(W), Ferguson (FERG), and Dream Finders Homes (DFH) due to their exposure to new home construction. I still believe there is value in the new home building sector, but trimmed some positions where I think exposure to new home construction is not being fully appreciated. Ferguson is a great business but does have significant exposure to new home construction, and a premium valuation. The combination of these factors led us to reallocate capital elsewhere. Similarly, I have owned Wayfair less than one year and the stock (not to be confused with the business) was up 140% at the time of the sales. I did not buy the stock expecting such a rapid rise in price, so recognizing the stock has gotten ahead of where I might value the business, I trimmed our position in the mid-$70's per share. Finally, Dream Finders Homes is one of two homebuilding stocks we own (the other being Hovnanian (HOV). Between DFH and HOV, I believe HOV is cheaper and has more upside as it deleverages its balance sheet at a challenging time for homebuilders. Overall, I felt our exposure to homebuilding should be lower, so I sold a bit of DFH, but still believe valuations and end market conditions are neutral for now.
BSD Analysis:
Dream Finders is the homebuilder that refuses to play by the old-school, asset-heavy rules — and the strategy is working. By embracing a land-light model and leaning hard into lot purchase agreements, DFH has sidestepped the capital sinkhole that drags down traditional builders. The result? Faster turns, higher ROE, and a growth runway that looks absurdly undervalued relative to peers. Demand in its core markets remains strong, and with mortgage buydowns now a permanent part of the playbook, DFH is capturing buyers even in a high-rate environment. Critics complain about margin volatility, but that’s the tradeoff for a capital-efficient growth engine — and DFH is still expanding earnings while others are retrenching. At today’s multiple, the stock is priced like a second-tier operator despite behaving like a disciplined, growth-first builder. If housing demand stays even moderately tight, DFH’s operating leverage can surprise to the upside.
Pitch Summary:
Novo Nordisk (NVO) is one of two major players in the GLP-1 space, along with Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk had some execution missteps in the major North American market and allowed Eli Lilly to take a lead in a space Novo knows very well due to its massive insulin franchise. While the near-term is foggy, GLP-1's are still not used by anywhere near the number of adults who could potentially benefit from them, and even though pricing cou...
Pitch Summary:
Novo Nordisk (NVO) is one of two major players in the GLP-1 space, along with Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk had some execution missteps in the major North American market and allowed Eli Lilly to take a lead in a space Novo knows very well due to its massive insulin franchise. While the near-term is foggy, GLP-1's are still not used by anywhere near the number of adults who could potentially benefit from them, and even though pricing could be a headwind for the market overall and potentially Novo's major product Wegovy specifically, I believe the current mid-teens P/E valuation does not adequately reflect the long-term growth potential of the business.
BSD Analysis:
Novo Nordisk isn’t just a pharma company anymore — it’s running the closest thing to a legal monopoly the obesity market has ever seen. Wegovy and Ozempic have reshaped global healthcare demand so fast that every competitor is years behind in manufacturing, efficacy, or safety. Novo’s supply chain scaling is the real story: they’re turning capital spend into an impenetrable moat while rivals are still begging CMOs for capacity. Margins are exploding, free cash flow is surging, and governments are essentially underwriting long-term demand by treating obesity as a chronic disease. The market keeps pretending competition is coming “any day now,” but real-world prescription data says otherwise. Novo is printing cash, building barriers, and owning one of the biggest, stickiest drug categories in history. Valuation looks rich only if you underestimate how early we still are in global GLP-1 adoption.
Pitch Summary:
Despite my better judgment, I purchased shares in Endava (DAVA) again based on a number of factors: 1) Endava operating margins are at trough levels, 5-10 percentage points below peers, despite being at parity in the past; 2) all-time low valuation <10x P/E without adjusting for the trough margins; 3) peak pessimism from the market about disruption from AI at the same time AI developments on the ground have actually slowed down,...
Pitch Summary:
Despite my better judgment, I purchased shares in Endava (DAVA) again based on a number of factors: 1) Endava operating margins are at trough levels, 5-10 percentage points below peers, despite being at parity in the past; 2) all-time low valuation <10x P/E without adjusting for the trough margins; 3) peak pessimism from the market about disruption from AI at the same time AI developments on the ground have actually slowed down, and 4) customer-specific delays at a major customer that have hampered growth relative to peers. There is a lot of pessimism baked into the price of this business and I believe there is a self-help story here that either management or a bidder will ultimately seek to realize.
BSD Analysis:
Endava was the golden child of digital transformation until macro reality punched the entire IT consulting sector in the face — but the market is now overcorrecting. Yes, deal cycles slowed, and yes, clients pulled back, but Endava’s engineering talent, deep fintech relationships, and nearshore delivery model remain best-in-class. The company isn’t losing relevance; enterprises are simply deferring large projects until budgets unfreeze. Meanwhile, Endava has been quietly managing costs, preserving margins, and positioning itself for the next wave of AI-enabled consulting demand. Its track record of high ROIC, sticky client relationships, and repeat engagement puts it in a stronger position than most mid-cap IT vendors. At today’s valuation, the stock is priced like a structurally broken growth story despite having all the ingredients for a sharp rebound once spending normalizes. When digital budgets recover, Endava’s operating leverage will show up fast — and the stock will move before investors are ready.
Pitch Summary:
I want to touch on Post Holdings (POST) first because it's been a long-time holding and my ownership pre-dates the founding of Argosy Investors. Bill Stiritz became well-known to investors through his profile in the Outsiders, a book written by William Thorndike. Mr. Stiritz ran Ralston Purina for decades and Ralcorp Holdings spun off Post Holdings in 2012. Mr. Stiritz became executive chairman of Post Holdings with Rob Vitale as C...
Pitch Summary:
I want to touch on Post Holdings (POST) first because it's been a long-time holding and my ownership pre-dates the founding of Argosy Investors. Bill Stiritz became well-known to investors through his profile in the Outsiders, a book written by William Thorndike. Mr. Stiritz ran Ralston Purina for decades and Ralcorp Holdings spun off Post Holdings in 2012. Mr. Stiritz became executive chairman of Post Holdings with Rob Vitale as CEO. They embarked on a publicly-traded LBO model similar to what Stiritz successfully did at Ralston Purina. While there have been many successes at Post, over time the long-term results have been dissatisfying relative to the results one could have earned owning a broad stock market index. While not a very large position, given the time the stock has been owned, its worth some reflection on what didn't work as well as hoped. There are 3 factors that I think made POST perform worse than expected: 1) interest rates have increased, creating a headwind for leveraged capital structures, both public and private; 2) consumer staples brands have faced long-term headwinds as brand allegiance has fragmented in the age of social media, while the cereal brands POST owned faced accelerating secular declines from consumer tastes shifting away from carb-heavy diets; and 3) POST's capital allocation track record has only been average, as certain deals such as Weetabix and Bob Evans have not meaningfully improved the business and its not clear the valuations paid were attractive in hindsight. To be sure, they made many correct moves over time, consolidating manufacturing footprints and moving away from carb-heavy diets in several of their capital allocation decisions. They have bought many smaller stranded assets and plugged them in to their operations in an accretive way, including their pet foods and Peter Pan peanut butter brand acquisitions. They also successfully built and spun of Bellring Brands, whose primary asset is Premier Protein. They have also repurchased 16% of the company over the last 7 years. All in, their long-term returns have been below-average, and I no longer feel it was an the best home for investment.
BSD Analysis:
Post is the messy, underappreciated consumer conglomerate that somehow always lands on its feet — and investors who underestimate it usually regret it. This isn’t a sleepy cereal company anymore; it’s a cash-generating portfolio machine with strong positions in foodservice, protein snacks, refrigerated retail, and private-label manufacturing. The strategy is pure Post: buy unloved assets, fix them quietly, milk the cash flow, and repeat. The spin-off activity and ongoing portfolio reshaping may look convoluted, but underneath it all, EBITDA durability is improving and free cash flow keeps surprising to the upside. Management is ruthlessly pragmatic with capital — they don’t chase growth for optics, they chase returns. The market keeps discounting Post because visibility looks “messy,” but messy is exactly where Post historically makes shareholders money. If consumer volumes stabilize and inflation eases, the company’s margin structure could look meaningfully better than consensus models.
Pitch Summary:
USLM is an integrated manufacturer of lime and limestone products, extracting limestone from owned, long-life open-pit quarries and underground mines, which it then processes internally into its various end forms for use primarily in steel manufacturing and construction activities. USLM is a highly cash generative, high returning business with a net cash balance sheet. As is almost always the case, it’s the industry structure that’...
Pitch Summary:
USLM is an integrated manufacturer of lime and limestone products, extracting limestone from owned, long-life open-pit quarries and underground mines, which it then processes internally into its various end forms for use primarily in steel manufacturing and construction activities. USLM is a highly cash generative, high returning business with a net cash balance sheet. As is almost always the case, it’s the industry structure that’s decisive in giving rise to these characteristics. Specifically, the lime industry is highly regionalised, with its heavy, low value per tonne nature making it costly to transport long distances. Consequently, there tends to be 2 or 3 primary competitors in each region, as is the case with USLM & its main competitor, Lhoist, which together serve the central US and Texan markets. Whilst competing sources of lime (from say, Mexico) do find their way into the market from time to time, not only is the landed cost higher but there’s also a quality trade-off. So as long as USLM (and Lhoist) don’t abuse their privileged market position, the opportunity to continue to generate strong cash flows and returns should persist long into the future. Notwithstanding this, the shorter-term picture for USLM will continue to be influenced by ebbs and flows in end market demand, as evidenced in its Q3 result published late in October. Strength in construction tied to large data-center projects is currently offsetting weakness in oil & gas services volumes. Price growth slowed compared to recent quarters, albeit still posting a robust +5%. USLM is a high-quality business operating within a highly favourable industry structure. We will gladly add further to the position should the share price continue to soften materially from current levels.
BSD Analysis:
USLM is one of the most disciplined niche materials producers in North America, benefiting from stable demand across construction, infrastructure, and environmental applications. Its vertically integrated footprint gives it pricing power and cost control that competitors can’t touch. The company never chases volume for volume’s sake — it focuses on margins, cash flow, and operational stability. The balance sheet is fortress-level and management treats capital allocation like a religion. Investors often overlook USLM because lime isn’t glamorous, but the fundamentals are exceptional. This is a quiet compounder with real scarcity value in an infrastructure-driven economy. A premium industrial trading like a backwater materials play.
Pitch Summary:
LPL’s stock rallied strongly following the release of its Q3 result at the end of the month, delivering solid organic FUA growth of +7%, strong underlying FUA retention of 98%, and demonstrating good early progress on integrating the Commonwealth Financial acquisition. Management also announced pricing actions to bring LPL more into line with competitors that will add 1ppt to future margin. This was undoubtedly a great result with ...
Pitch Summary:
LPL’s stock rallied strongly following the release of its Q3 result at the end of the month, delivering solid organic FUA growth of +7%, strong underlying FUA retention of 98%, and demonstrating good early progress on integrating the Commonwealth Financial acquisition. Management also announced pricing actions to bring LPL more into line with competitors that will add 1ppt to future margin. This was undoubtedly a great result with the strength of LPL’s value proposition evident in its continued market share gains of the growing US retail advisor-mediated market. In a world of growing financial complexity, regulations and digital transformation, LPL’s offer continues to win favour with independent advisers and institutions alike. Its earnings outlook is not without risk, as we increasingly cycle elevated markets (upon which most of its fees are based), and it still has work to do to realise the substantial synergies that it has committed to with the US$3.3b Commonwealth acquisition. But on just 14x FY26 EBIT and ample runway for growth, it is hard to fault, and it remains a core holding in the fund.
BSD Analysis:
LPL is the engine of the independent advisor model, quietly capturing wallet share as advisors flee wirehouses in search of higher payouts and better tech. Its platform economics are powerful: rising assets translate directly into recurring revenue, while operating leverage quietly expands margins. Interest-rate normalization hit NIM, but advisory-fee growth more than offsets the noise. Critics underestimate how sticky advisors become once they migrate — switching costs are enormous and LPL’s ecosystem only gets deeper with every integration. Technology investments are finally showing up in productivity gains and improved retention. LPL is not a brokerage; it’s a long-duration asset-gathering machine. A compounder disguised as a financial middleman.
Buffett Case Studies: Deep dive into Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) Gen Re merger and BNSF acquisition as strategic masterstrokes aligning defense-first risk management with long-term offense.
Iconic Investments: Coca-Cola (KO) and Apple (AAPL) highlighted as transformational holdings, with Apple framed as a consumer products franchise and among Buffett's best trades; IBM (IBM) discussed as a valuable lesson.
Japan Equities:...
Buffett Case Studies: Deep dive into Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) Gen Re merger and BNSF acquisition as strategic masterstrokes aligning defense-first risk management with long-term offense.
Iconic Investments: Coca-Cola (KO) and Apple (AAPL) highlighted as transformational holdings, with Apple framed as a consumer products franchise and among Buffett's best trades; IBM (IBM) discussed as a valuable lesson.
Japan Equities: Bullish view on Japanese trading houses via yen-denominated financing and reform tailwinds, with strong dividends creating positive carry and strategic partnerships.
Energy Opportunity: Energy sector seen as undervalued with cyclical headwinds and long-term demand tailwinds, creating attractive entry points despite near-term macro softness.
Market Structure: Current market led by mega-cap growth contrasts with historical outperformance of smaller, value-oriented stocks, suggesting mean reversion potential.
International Tilt: Preference for international equities given relative undervaluation versus the U.S., noting structural overweights in U.S. indices and potential for an international decade.
Sub-Industries in Focus: Reinsurance and Railroads examined for structural advantages; Trading Companies & Distributors emphasized through Japan’s sogo shosha model.
Risk Management: Emphasis on via negativa, durability over leverage, and buybacks at discounts, with caution on concentration risk in cap-weighted benchmarks.
AAPL
BRK.B
energy
IBM
International Equities
Japan equities
KO
railroads
Reinsurance
Small cap value
Trading Companies & Distributors
We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast Network
Gold: The guest views the selloff as a liquidity event, with fundamentals intact due to strong central-bank buying, constrained supply, and hedging demand. He sees deeper dips toward support as clear buying opportunities and notes gold’s strength can logically coexist with a strong dollar during fiat rebalancing.
US Dollar: Despite de-dollarization headlines, BIS/IMF/SWIFT data support the dollar’s continued reserve dominance and ...
Gold: The guest views the selloff as a liquidity event, with fundamentals intact due to strong central-bank buying, constrained supply, and hedging demand. He sees deeper dips toward support as clear buying opportunities and notes gold’s strength can logically coexist with a strong dollar during fiat rebalancing.
US Dollar: Despite de-dollarization headlines, BIS/IMF/SWIFT data support the dollar’s continued reserve dominance and usage in cross-border flows. The dollar’s strength reflects relative weakness in the euro and yen and improving US growth expectations.
US Equities: He argues valuations are not excessive relative to money supply growth and better-than-expected earnings, suggesting a bullish trend with potential year-end melt-up. Corrections are seen as buying opportunities as debasement supports risk assets.
Technology Leadership: Tech benefits most from liquidity and debasement, supported by superior margins and cash generation versus European peers. Concentration in megacaps will persist, but there are attractive opportunities across the other S&P names.
AI and Market Momentum: Nvidia’s surge toward $4T underscores persistent AI momentum despite bubble concerns. The guest frames this within broader tech strength rather than an imminent bubble burst.
Fed Policy: An expected 25 bps cut aids leveraged investors and restores credit access for consumers and SMEs, moving gradually toward neutral. Further cuts are likely as month-on-month inflation pressures remain subdued.
Trade and Geopolitics: US-Japan agreements reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and stronger tech alliances point to a likely, monitored US-China deal. The US is strategically positioning for tech leadership, reinforcing dollar resilience.
Inflation Watch: Elevated money supply with low velocity keeps near-term inflation pressures muted, but a velocity uptick is the key risk. Monitoring a 2022-style flare-up is essential for risk management.