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Pitch Summary:
We started this year with IVFH as a top five position, and with the benefit of hindsight, should have taken more profits above $2.00/share as the valuation became quite stretched. We have officially round tripped most of our investment, which has disappointed both from a business perspective and share price perspective. Like Sylogist, I believe there is a fairly easy path to a positive outcome within the next few quarters. The Boar...
Pitch Summary:
We started this year with IVFH as a top five position, and with the benefit of hindsight, should have taken more profits above $2.00/share as the valuation became quite stretched. We have officially round tripped most of our investment, which has disappointed both from a business perspective and share price perspective. Like Sylogist, I believe there is a fairly easy path to a positive outcome within the next few quarters. The Board agrees, and during the quarter, instituted a management change, which should prove a net positive, as IVFH will now redirect resources to their core specialty food business. If management’s efforts in this area return stability and/or growth to the drop-ship business, historically a 20% grower, there is significant upside to today’s price.
BSD Analysis:
IVFH has clearly stumbled over the past year, but the core specialty food distribution business still holds meaningful strategic value if management can restore focus and execution. The board’s decision to initiate a leadership change is an important catalyst, as the company is now reallocating resources toward the higher-margin, historically twenty-percent-growth drop-ship segment that originally drove the bull case. That business remains fundamentally attractive: it serves a fragmented customer base, carries limited working-capital risk, and has proven it can scale when management isn’t distracted by side initiatives. The recent operational missteps have compressed the valuation to levels that assume little to no recovery, creating a setup where even stabilizing the business would drive a disproportionate re-rating. If new leadership can reestablish basic commercial discipline, improve cost control, and regain growth in the drop-ship channel, IVFH has a credible path back to the revenue and margin profile investors paid up for previously. The company doesn’t need perfection; it just needs competence and focus, both of which now appear more plausible with the board’s intervention. In a few quarters, the narrative could shift from disappointment to turnaround, offering asymmetric upside from today’s depressed share price.
Pitch Summary:
Shares of Sylogist declined significantly following less than stellar Q2 results and a reduced FY25 outlook that came as unexpected. This was in direct opposition to management’s bullishness following Q1 results and after years of strong business execution. Many of the near-term issues are timing related as opposed to structural or competitive issues, but some additional hiccups were revealed in Q2 that changed my estimate of the f...
Pitch Summary:
Shares of Sylogist declined significantly following less than stellar Q2 results and a reduced FY25 outlook that came as unexpected. This was in direct opposition to management’s bullishness following Q1 results and after years of strong business execution. Many of the near-term issues are timing related as opposed to structural or competitive issues, but some additional hiccups were revealed in Q2 that changed my estimate of the forward return profile and risk/reward. As a result, I reduced our position as I no longer feel Sylogist meets the requirement for a top five holding, where it’s been for over three years. All is not lost for the business, which is why we have not exited completely, and I believe there is still a path to a very positive return moving forward, but my conviction level and compared to the risk/rewards elsewhere in our portfolio necessitated action on my part.
BSD Analysis:
Sylogist’s sharp share-price decline reflects a combination of weak Q2 execution and an unexpectedly lower FY25 outlook, but the underlying business still retains attributes that could support a recovery. Most of the disruptions appear to be timing driven — delayed implementations, customer project slippage, and internal execution bottlenecks — rather than signs of structural competitive erosion. That said, Q2 did expose real operational hiccups, and the mismatch between management’s bullish Q1 tone and subsequent guidance reset has understandably damaged investor confidence. Even with the reduced outlook, Sylogist continues to operate in sticky, mission-critical verticals with high switching costs, recurring revenue, and long customer tenures. If management can stabilize delivery, improve forecasting accuracy, and return to even modest organic growth, the current valuation leaves room for meaningful upside. The business does not need to reclaim its former growth cadence to work from here; it simply needs to reestablish operational consistency and rebuild credibility. While conviction has moderated, Sylogist still offers a viable path to attractive returns if execution improves over the next few quarters.
Pitch Summary:
CD Projekt, our third-largest contributor since inception and still a top-three position, exemplifies what we’re finding offshore: quality businesses undergoing structural transformations that create significant mispricings. The company has historically been constrained by single-track game development, which capped reinvestment opportunities despite exceptional returns. With the transition to dual-track AAA production—Witcher 4 an...
Pitch Summary:
CD Projekt, our third-largest contributor since inception and still a top-three position, exemplifies what we’re finding offshore: quality businesses undergoing structural transformations that create significant mispricings. The company has historically been constrained by single-track game development, which capped reinvestment opportunities despite exceptional returns. With the transition to dual-track AAA production—Witcher 4 and Cyberpunk 2—and incremental projects through 2035, CD Projekt is moving from a cyclical hitmaker to a steady-state compounder. Margins remain among the highest in the industry (~39%), supported by a robust back catalogue and disciplined capital deployment. The shift to Unreal Engine 5 improves efficiency and scalability while reducing development risk. Dual AAA pipelines and geographic expansion to the U.S. diversify execution risk. We believe CD Projekt can now deploy capital at high returns across multiple projects, transforming the business from cyclical to compounding.
BSD Analysis:
CD Projekt is in the midst of a structural transformation that meaningfully changes its long-term earnings profile, shifting from a “one-game-at-a-time” hitmaker to a multi-project AAA studio with far more predictable output. Historically, the company’s single-track development model constrained how much capital it could reinvest, even though its returns on successful titles were exceptional. The move to dual-track production with Witcher 4 and Cyberpunk 2 — plus additional projects slated through 2035 — materially increases its ability to compound value while reducing the all-or-nothing dynamic that previously defined its releases. Margins remain among the highest in global gaming, supported by a valuable back catalogue and disciplined cost management. The switch to Unreal Engine 5 not only lowers technical risk but also improves scalability, freeing resources to focus on narrative and gameplay innovation. CD Projekt’s geographic expansion into the U.S. adds talent depth and diversifies execution risk across teams and locations. With multiple AAA pipelines running in parallel and a stronger organizational architecture, the company appears well positioned to deploy capital at high returns and transition from a cyclical studio to a durable compounder.
Pitch Summary:
Lear was a contributor this quarter as shares rose following the announcement of a multi-year supply agreement with a leading EV manufacturer. The company’s Electrical Distribution Systems segment posted record revenue and backlog growth, offsetting softness in seating volumes. Management reiterated its long-term operating margin targets and capital return plans. We believe Lear remains undervalued relative to its strong free cash ...
Pitch Summary:
Lear was a contributor this quarter as shares rose following the announcement of a multi-year supply agreement with a leading EV manufacturer. The company’s Electrical Distribution Systems segment posted record revenue and backlog growth, offsetting softness in seating volumes. Management reiterated its long-term operating margin targets and capital return plans. We believe Lear remains undervalued relative to its strong free cash flow profile and exposure to secular electrification trends.
BSD Analysis:
Lear remains one of the most operationally disciplined suppliers in autos, with its Seating and E-Systems segments demonstrating steady share gains and strong customer relationships despite industry volatility. The seating business continues to outperform peers, supported by scale advantages, global manufacturing efficiency, and resilient program wins across major OEMs. E-Systems remains the optionality engine: as EV adoption rises, Lear’s electrical architectures and power-distribution content per vehicle structurally step higher. Margins are recovering as supply-chain pressures ease and mix improves across both segments. While the stock trades at a cyclical discount, the company’s balance sheet, execution quality, and content-growth story look underappreciated. As OEM volumes normalize, Lear is well positioned for both earnings upside and multiple repair.
Pitch Summary:
Rogers Corporation was a top contributor during the quarter as the company continued to benefit from robust demand for its advanced materials used in electric vehicles and high-frequency communications. The stock rallied following better-than-expected quarterly results driven by margin expansion and cost controls. Management raised full-year guidance citing stronger automotive and industrial end markets. We continue to view Rogers ...
Pitch Summary:
Rogers Corporation was a top contributor during the quarter as the company continued to benefit from robust demand for its advanced materials used in electric vehicles and high-frequency communications. The stock rallied following better-than-expected quarterly results driven by margin expansion and cost controls. Management raised full-year guidance citing stronger automotive and industrial end markets. We continue to view Rogers as well-positioned to capitalize on structural growth in EV adoption and 5G infrastructure buildouts.
BSD Analysis:
Rogers is a high-value materials play levered to electrification, advanced mobility, and engineered solutions that require reliability where failure simply isn’t an option. Near-term auto softness and inventory digestion have masked the underlying strength of its premium elastomers, power-electronics substrates, and RF materials. Operating discipline has improved meaningfully, with cost actions starting to flow through and margin recovery taking hold ahead of expectations. Secular tailwinds—EVs, ADAS, renewable infrastructure, and high-frequency electronics—provide a multi-year runway of above-GDP growth. The stock trades below intrinsic value due to legacy execution issues and the aborted DuPont deal, even though fundamentals are markedly better today. With clean execution, operational leverage, and a steadier demand setup, Rogers looks like an under-owned materials compounder with asymmetric upside.
Pitch Summary:
Siemens Energy, a leading gas-turbine manufacturer, is well placed to benefit from rising power demand. AI data centers are driving a step-up in electricity consumption and, given extended grid-connection timelines, gas turbines are uniquely positioned to meet this need through rapid deployment, low execution risk, and reliable output. Beyond AI demand, there are additional structural drivers including coal-to-gas transitions, rene...
Pitch Summary:
Siemens Energy, a leading gas-turbine manufacturer, is well placed to benefit from rising power demand. AI data centers are driving a step-up in electricity consumption and, given extended grid-connection timelines, gas turbines are uniquely positioned to meet this need through rapid deployment, low execution risk, and reliable output. Beyond AI demand, there are additional structural drivers including coal-to-gas transitions, renewables intermittency support, and load growth tied to EV adoption and reshoring.
BSD Analysis:
Siemens Energy is the kind of turnaround story that tests your patience right up until it doesn’t — and we’re getting close to that inflection point. The wind-turbine mess at Gamesa has dominated headlines, but underneath the chaos, the grid and gas businesses are quietly booming on the back of global electrification and grid modernization. High-voltage transmission demand is off the charts, and Siemens Energy sits in the sweet spot as utilities race to upgrade infrastructure that’s decades overdue. The balance sheet scare forced discipline, and now profitability is finally starting to reflect the parts of the business that actually matter. Once Gamesa stabilizes — even at mediocre margins — Siemens Energy’s earnings profile will look dramatically better than the market is pricing. This is an electrification pure-play hiding behind a wind-turbine soap opera. If execution stays on track, the valuation gap could close fast.
Pitch Summary:
TSMC is the world’s leading manufacturer of semiconductors, including those used in AI applications. Whilst the company has benefitted from the current demand environment, its position as a capacity-constrained near-monopoly in leading-edge chipmaking helps their ability to allocate capacity towards a variety of long-term secular growth trends if required.
BSD Analysis:
TSMC remains the irreplaceable engine of global semiconductor...
Pitch Summary:
TSMC is the world’s leading manufacturer of semiconductors, including those used in AI applications. Whilst the company has benefitted from the current demand environment, its position as a capacity-constrained near-monopoly in leading-edge chipmaking helps their ability to allocate capacity towards a variety of long-term secular growth trends if required.
BSD Analysis:
TSMC remains the irreplaceable engine of global semiconductor innovation, with unmatched leadership at advanced nodes and the capacity scale needed to satisfy surging AI-compute demand. Revenue growth near 40% and margins north of 58% highlight the advantage of being the only foundry capable of delivering leading-edge yields at commercial scale. Its roadmap—3nm today, 2nm ramping—is pulling the entire tech ecosystem forward, giving TSMC monopoly-like pricing power in high-performance compute. Geographic diversification of fabs strengthens geopolitical resilience without diluting margin profile. The market still undervalues how durable TSMC’s competitive moat is as AI accelerators, edge compute, and advanced packaging all converge. With 20–25% earnings CAGR visibility and a valuation that remains reasonable relative to strategic importance, TSMC stands out as one of the clearest long-duration compounders in global tech.
Pitch Summary:
Crane NXT (CXT) was initiated in the Small Cap Strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. The company has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It now operates through two segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI), which provides cash validation, payment acceptance, vending, kiosk automation, and cash processing systems across retail, gaming...
Pitch Summary:
Crane NXT (CXT) was initiated in the Small Cap Strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. The company has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It now operates through two segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI), which provides cash validation, payment acceptance, vending, kiosk automation, and cash processing systems across retail, gaming, and financial institutions, and Security & Authentication Technologies, which delivers anti-counterfeiting technologies for banknotes, identification documents, and branded goods. Since the spin, CXT has made two strategic acquisitions—OpSec Security (2024) and De La Rue’s Authentication Solutions (2025)—expanding its reach into brand protection, credentials, and digital authentication. The company’s proprietary micro-optic technologies are used by over 50 central banks. Management is applying the proven Crane Business System framework and maintaining conservative leverage. We believe CXT is well positioned in high-margin markets where security, authenticity, and trusted transactions are paramount. Its differentiated technology and disciplined capital deployment make for a compelling long-term opportunity.
BSD Analysis:
Crane NXT is the high-margin, high-moat slice of the old Crane Co. portfolio — the part that actually deserved to be a standalone business. Its currency validation, authentication, and payment security technologies operate in niches where reliability isn’t optional, giving Crane NXT a defensible moat that newcomers can’t cheaply replicate. Cash flow is strong, margins are elite, and the company has the balance sheet flexibility to pursue disciplined bolt-on acquisitions in fragmented security markets. Investors slapped a “low-growth” label on it at the spin, but the secular demand for secure payments, anti-counterfeiting tech, and automated currency systems is anything but shrinking. Execution has been tight, cost structure is improving, and mix shift toward software-heavy validation tools is quietly adding incremental margin. At today’s valuation, the stock is priced like a sleepy industrial even though it behaves more like a cash-efficient security tech platform. The rerating potential is real if management keeps delivering.
Pitch Summary:
Stepan Company (SCL) was a detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter. The company continues to execute on its strategy to grow its functional surfactants, which serve the agriculture and oilfield market, as well as its Tier 2 and Tier 3 surfactant volumes, which represents sales to smaller customers formulating specialty products. The second quarter results reflected solid growth in these end markets. However, weakne...
Pitch Summary:
Stepan Company (SCL) was a detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter. The company continues to execute on its strategy to grow its functional surfactants, which serve the agriculture and oilfield market, as well as its Tier 2 and Tier 3 surfactant volumes, which represents sales to smaller customers formulating specialty products. The second quarter results reflected solid growth in these end markets. However, weakness in the commodity consumer product end markets offset growth in these areas, and overall Surfactant segment volumes were down 1%. In the Polymer segment, volumes were up 7% driven by strength in the North American and European rigid polyols end markets despite continued headwinds from a weak macro environment and tariff uncertainty. As of the end of the second quarter, SCL generated $197 million in trailing 12-month EBITDA, and management makes a strong case that the business should generate $60 million quarterly as some market headwinds abate and the recently installed new alkoxylation capacity in Pasadena, TX, comes online later this year. SCL ended the second quarter with net debt to trailing 12-months EBITDA of 2.9x, and we expect this ratio to come down now that the heavy investment period is behind them. Luis Rojo was promoted to the CEO position in October 2024 after serving as CFO for 6 years, and we have been impressed with his execution of the business strategy so far. SCL is recognized as an industry leader in formulating new products and applications for its surfactants and polymers, and we believe the company has developed valuable, long-term relationships with customers that will continue to generate steady cash flow.
BSD Analysis:
Stepan is one of those under-the-radar specialty chemical companies that the market consistently misprices because the story isn’t flashy — but the fundamentals are rock solid. The surfactant business is predictable, cash generative, and embedded in everyday products, giving Stepan a defensive backbone competitors envy. The real upside comes from polymers and specialty ingredients, where margins are structurally higher and customer stickiness is almost absurd. Capex has been elevated, but for the right reasons — capacity expansion, efficiency upgrades, and positioning for long-term megatrends like insulation, agriculture, and personal care. Volumes took a hit during the recent industrial slowdown, but early indicators suggest a recovery is forming just beneath the surface. The balance sheet is clean enough for opportunistic growth, and Stepan’s disciplined culture keeps ROIC healthy even in sloppy macro environments. As industrial activity normalizes, Stepan’s margin mix and operating leverage have room to outperform consensus.
Pitch Summary:
Darling Ingredients (DAR) was the top detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter after being a top contributor in the second quarter. DAR is the largest publicly traded company turning edible by-products and food waste into sustainable products and a leading producer of renewable energy. DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at o...
Pitch Summary:
Darling Ingredients (DAR) was the top detractor in the Small Cap strategy in the third quarter after being a top contributor in the second quarter. DAR is the largest publicly traded company turning edible by-products and food waste into sustainable products and a leading producer of renewable energy. DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at or near a bottom. We see several fundamental and regulatory changes supporting our view that top line and bottom-line results will inflect higher in 2026. Recent announcements from DC and from the company are supportive of our view. The base Food and Feed businesses are providing significant support for the struggling Fuel business – a natural hedge we have long discussed. In addition, the company’s vertically integrated supply chain and low-cost position have proven resilient in the face of such headwinds. We expect results for the remainder of 2025 to be challenged and believe this reality is more than accounted for in today’s share price. As the cycle turns, the operational improvements made the past couple of years together with an upgraded asset base will, in our opinion, provide a substantial boost to operating profitability and discretionary cash flow. While frustrated with the recent performance, we do believe some meaningful relief is on the horizon.
BSD Analysis:
Darling Ingredients went from being a niche rendering business to a renewable diesel powerhouse — and the market still hasn’t figured out how to price the hybrid. The Diamond Green Diesel JV threw off absurd amounts of cash during the peak spread years, and while margins have normalized, the long-term economics still look far better than the doom-and-gloom narrative implies. Feedstock volatility hammered sentiment, but Darling’s global sourcing network gives it an edge most biofuel players can’t replicate. The core ingredients business remains a quiet cash generator, with stable volumes and pricing power that smooths out the renewable volatility. Leverage is elevated but manageable, and deleveraging should accelerate as spreads stabilize and new capacity ramps. The market is treating Darling like a busted ESG trade, ignoring its unique vertical integration and real options in sustainable aviation fuel. If renewable fuel sentiment even partially recovers, the multiple on this thing has real room to expand.
Pitch Summary:
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) was a top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12-18 months to increase capa...
Pitch Summary:
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) was a top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12-18 months to increase capacity by roughly 80%. The balance sheet is in good shape with ND/Adj. EBITDA ~1x, and management plans to pause acquisitions for the next few quarters as it integrates three recent acquisitions, explores the sale of its light duty vehicle heat exchanger business, and executes on its data center investments. We remain impressed by CEO Neil Brinker and the strong leadership team he has assembled, and we believe they are well positioned to continue creating meaningful shareholder value.
BSD Analysis:
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is the ultimate AI data center picks-and-shovels play, leveraging a sudden, massive shift in power demand to drive a structural re-rating. The company's thermal management expertise has made it a critical enabler for hyperscale customers who need advanced cooling for their energy-intensive AI workloads. Management is betting the farm on this trend, committing $100 million in CapEx over 12-18 months to nearly double data center capacity by 80%, a move that should guarantee multi-year secular growth visibility. Data center revenue is skyrocketing, growing 119% year-over-year in recent periods and projected to grow over 60% in fiscal 2026 alone. Despite the rapid expansion, the balance sheet remains strong with Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA near 1x, and the company is pursuing opportunistic asset sales (like the light-duty heat exchanger business) to improve focus and fund the AI growth engine. Trading at an EV/EBITDA under 10x, the valuation has not yet fully discounted the incredible incremental margins and potential for $2 billion in data center revenue by Fiscal 2028.
Pitch Summary:
Brink’s Company (BCO) was the top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions ...
Pitch Summary:
Brink’s Company (BCO) was the top contributor in the Small Cap strategy during the third quarter. BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions and convert whitespace opportunities in retail. These higher-margin, recurring revenue businesses now represent over 25% of total company revenue and are expected to continue delivering double digit organic growth for the foreseeable future. Free cash flow continues to improve with over $100 million generated in the quarter on EBITDA growth, continued capital efficiency and strong working capital performance. In addition, management has been disciplined and opportunistic with capital deployment – buying back $130mm in stock year to date with $85mm of that coming in 2q. We believe the current price affords share owners a nice opportunity to compound double digit returns over our investment time horizon with a strong balance sheet providing a backdrop for cash flow growth and a predictable and effective capital allocation strategy.
BSD Analysis:
Brink's Company (BCO) is in the midst of a critical business model transformation, pivoting from traditional armored transport to a recurring-revenue security platform. The core thesis is driven by the rapid growth of its high-margin ATM Managed Services (AMS) and Digital Retail Solutions (DRS) segments. These tech-enabled services, including smart safes and full ATM outsourcing, are now a significant portion of total revenue and are growing at a double-digit rate. Management is aggressively pushing the outsourcing trend with financial institutions and capturing retail "whitespace" opportunities, accelerating the shift toward a more predictable, high-multiple services model. The company's disciplined capital deployment, including buybacks that have reduced the share count by 5% year-to-date, amplifies per-share returns alongside accelerating cash flow. With EBITDA margins expanding and its EV/EBITDA near 10x, this compounding story is well-positioned for continued upside as secular trends in cash logistics and managed services play out.
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a new position in Crane NXT (CXT) in the SMID Cap strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. We owned the parent company for several years, so we know the business well. CXT has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It operates through two primary segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) and Security & Authentication Technologi...
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a new position in Crane NXT (CXT) in the SMID Cap strategy during the quarter. CXT was spun off from Crane Corporation in 2023. We owned the parent company for several years, so we know the business well. CXT has a strong foundation in security and authentication technologies and automated payment systems. It operates through two primary segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) and Security & Authentication Technologies. CPI provides a suite of payment solutions, including cash validation, vending, and kiosk automation, while the Security segment is a global leader in anti-counterfeiting technologies for banknotes and identification documents. Following acquisitions of OpSec Security and De La Rue’s Authentication Solutions, CXT expanded into brand protection and digital authentication. The company maintains a conservative balance sheet and consistent cash generation. We believe CXT’s differentiated technology provides pricing power and durable high margins, making for a compelling long-term opportunity.
BSD Analysis:
Crane NXT is emerging as a high-quality compounder in secure authentication and automated payment technologies, a niche where proprietary IP and customer trust create real moats. The company’s expansion into brand protection and digital authentication via recent acquisitions broadens its recurring-revenue base and strengthens pricing power. With a conservative balance sheet and consistent cash generation, CXT has the capacity to pursue strategic M&A without stretching risk. Its dual-segment portfolio—Crane Payment Innovations and Security & Authentication—benefits from long-cycle demand tied to anti-counterfeiting, banknote validation, and automated retail. Margins are already strong, and management’s operating discipline should push returns higher as integration benefits compound. Trading at a modest multiple for a business with durable competitive advantages, CXT looks well-positioned for steady, multi-year value creation.
Pitch Summary:
WSO is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration products in North America. While second-quarter results held up relatively well with revenue down 4% and operating income up 1%, equipment volumes have been weaker than expected, declining roughly 12% year to date. Management attributes this primarily to lower new construction activity and a consumer shift from replacement to repair, noting that Watsco’s...
Pitch Summary:
WSO is the largest distributor of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration products in North America. While second-quarter results held up relatively well with revenue down 4% and operating income up 1%, equipment volumes have been weaker than expected, declining roughly 12% year to date. Management attributes this primarily to lower new construction activity and a consumer shift from replacement to repair, noting that Watsco’s market share remains stable. We view these headwinds as temporary and continue to believe WSO’s competitive position within the HVAC/R distribution market remains strong. With no debt and $293 million in cash and short-term investments, the company is well positioned to pursue acquisitions across the highly fragmented $74 billion North American HVAC/R distribution landscape. We remain confident in Watsco’s long runway for both organic and inorganic growth, its owner-oriented culture, and its competitive advantages that increase with scale.
BSD Analysis:
Watsco continues to demonstrate why it’s the dominant HVAC/R distributor, absorbing macro softness with a balance sheet and operating model built for durability. Equipment volumes remain pressured by weak new-construction activity, but share has held firm, and the company’s repair-and-replacement mix offers built-in resilience. With nearly $300M in cash and no debt, Watsco is positioned to be the consolidator of choice in a fragmented $70B distribution market—an advantage the market rarely prices appropriately. Gross margins have proven sticky despite volume headwinds, reflecting scale, vendor alignment, and disciplined execution. As construction trends stabilize, Watsco should see operating leverage return quickly given its asset-light structure. The long-term algorithm—steady mid-single-digit organic growth plus accretive M&A—remains fully intact and underappreciated at today’s valuation.
Pitch Summary:
DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at or near a bottom. We see several fundamental and regulatory changes supporting our view that top-line and bottom-line results will inflect higher in 2026. Recent announcements from DC and from the company are supportive of our view. The base Food and Feed businesses are providing significant support for...
Pitch Summary:
DAR has faced significant headwinds which have affected the share price for the past 2 years. This downturn is, in our opinion, at or near a bottom. We see several fundamental and regulatory changes supporting our view that top-line and bottom-line results will inflect higher in 2026. Recent announcements from DC and from the company are supportive of our view. The base Food and Feed businesses are providing significant support for the struggling Fuel business – a natural hedge we have long discussed. In addition, the company’s vertically integrated supply chain and low-cost position have proven resilient in the face of such headwinds. We expect results for the remainder of 2025 to be challenged and believe this reality is more than accounted for in today’s share price. As the cycle turns, the operational improvements made the past couple of years together with an upgraded asset base will, in our opinion, provide a substantial boost to operating profitability and discretionary cash flow. While frustrated with the recent performance, we do believe some meaningful relief is on the horizon.
BSD Analysis:
Darling is sitting at what appears to be the bottom of a multi-year downcycle, with fundamentals finally starting to inflect in the right direction. The company’s vertically integrated supply chain has proven more resilient than bears expected, with the Food and Feed segments providing a natural hedge while the Fuel business absorbed the regulatory and pricing hits. With Washington signaling clearer renewable-fuel policy and the company’s upgraded asset base ready to scale, 2026 sets up as a meaningful margin-recovery year. Cash flow remains understated relative to normalized conditions, and the current valuation bakes in an overly pessimistic view of long-term renewable feedstock demand. As operational improvements flow through and RIN/credit markets stabilize, DAR has the potential to surprise to the upside. The setup is classic cyclical mispricing: ugly optics near the trough, strong earnings snapback potential on the other side.
Pitch Summary:
BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions and convert whitespace opportunities in retail. These higher-margin, recurring revenue businesses ...
Pitch Summary:
BCO, a leading global provider of cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and ATM managed services (AMS), was a top contributor for the quarter. In the second quarter, the company delivered 16% organic growth in AMS and DRS while continuing to stimulate customer demand for outsourcing with financial institutions and convert whitespace opportunities in retail. These higher-margin, recurring revenue businesses now represent over 25% of total company revenue and are expected to continue delivering double-digit organic growth for the foreseeable future. Free cash flow continues to improve with over $100 million generated in the quarter on EBITDA growth, continued capital efficiency, and strong working capital performance. Management has been disciplined and opportunistic with capital deployment – buying back $130mm in stock year to date with $85mm of that coming in 2Q. We believe the current price affords share owners a nice opportunity to compound double-digit returns over our investment time horizon with a strong balance sheet providing a backdrop for cash flow growth and a predictable and effective capital allocation strategy.
BSD Analysis:
Brink’s is the definition of an overlooked cash-flow machine operating in an industry everyone loves to declare dead. Cash usage isn’t disappearing — it’s stabilizing — and in emerging markets it’s still growing, which means Brink’s armored-transport and security franchise isn’t going anywhere. The company has been cleaning up operations, driving higher margins, and pushing recurring, tech-enabled solutions that blunt the labor and logistics volatility that used to define the business. Add in disciplined capital allocation and steady deleveraging, and Brink’s suddenly looks a lot less like a legacy operator and a lot more like a stable compounding platform. The market slaps a “secular decline” discount on the stock despite strong cash flow, resilient demand, and a business model with real barriers to entry. If execution stays tight and the company continues digitizing the physical cash ecosystem, Brink’s can rerate meaningfully from here. The disconnect between perception and fundamentals is the opportunity.
Pitch Summary:
MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12–18 months to increase capacity by roughly 80%. The balance sheet is in good shape with ND/Adj. EBITDA ~1x, and management plans to paus...
Pitch Summary:
MOD is a leading thermal management company and since initiating the position earlier this year, the demand outlook for AI datacenters has increased dramatically, driving increased demand for Modine’s cooling equipment. To meet this strong demand, the company will invest $100 million in the next 12–18 months to increase capacity by roughly 80%. The balance sheet is in good shape with ND/Adj. EBITDA ~1x, and management plans to pause acquisitions for the next few quarters as it integrates three recent acquisitions, explores the sale of its light-duty vehicle heat exchanger business, and executes on its data center investments. We remain impressed by CEO Neil Brinker and the strong leadership team he has assembled, and we believe they are well positioned to continue creating meaningful shareholder value.
BSD Analysis:
Modine went from being a dusty industrial to an AI-data-center darling almost overnight — and the pivot is real. Its thermal management solutions are now mission-critical as hyperscalers scramble to cool next-gen GPU racks that run hotter than anything data centers have ever handled. Modine has the engineering pedigree, manufacturing scale, and delivery reliability that unproven competitors simply can’t match. The secular growth in AI thermal demand is so strong that even Modine’s “old” industrial and HVAC segments suddenly look like stable ballast rather than drags. Margins have exploded under the company’s transformation plan, and Modine is posting the kind of EPS growth the market would normally slap a software multiple on. Yet the stock still trades like a mid-cap cyclical with a questionable past. If AI infrastructure buildouts stay on their current trajectory, Modine is one of the few names with both torque and credibility — a rare combination.
Pitch Summary:
In terms of partial sales, I trimmed Wayfair(W), Ferguson (FERG), and Dream Finders Homes (DFH) due to their exposure to new home construction. I still believe there is value in the new home building sector, but trimmed some positions where I think exposure to new home construction is not being fully appreciated. Ferguson is a great business but does have significant exposure to new home construction, and a premium valuation. The c...
Pitch Summary:
In terms of partial sales, I trimmed Wayfair(W), Ferguson (FERG), and Dream Finders Homes (DFH) due to their exposure to new home construction. I still believe there is value in the new home building sector, but trimmed some positions where I think exposure to new home construction is not being fully appreciated. Ferguson is a great business but does have significant exposure to new home construction, and a premium valuation. The combination of these factors led us to reallocate capital elsewhere. Similarly, I have owned Wayfair less than one year and the stock (not to be confused with the business) was up 140% at the time of the sales. I did not buy the stock expecting such a rapid rise in price, so recognizing the stock has gotten ahead of where I might value the business, I trimmed our position in the mid-$70's per share. Finally, Dream Finders Homes is one of two homebuilding stocks we own (the other being Hovnanian (HOV). Between DFH and HOV, I believe HOV is cheaper and has more upside as it deleverages its balance sheet at a challenging time for homebuilders. Overall, I felt our exposure to homebuilding should be lower, so I sold a bit of DFH, but still believe valuations and end market conditions are neutral for now.
BSD Analysis:
Dream Finders is the homebuilder that refuses to play by the old-school, asset-heavy rules — and the strategy is working. By embracing a land-light model and leaning hard into lot purchase agreements, DFH has sidestepped the capital sinkhole that drags down traditional builders. The result? Faster turns, higher ROE, and a growth runway that looks absurdly undervalued relative to peers. Demand in its core markets remains strong, and with mortgage buydowns now a permanent part of the playbook, DFH is capturing buyers even in a high-rate environment. Critics complain about margin volatility, but that’s the tradeoff for a capital-efficient growth engine — and DFH is still expanding earnings while others are retrenching. At today’s multiple, the stock is priced like a second-tier operator despite behaving like a disciplined, growth-first builder. If housing demand stays even moderately tight, DFH’s operating leverage can surprise to the upside.
Pitch Summary:
Novo Nordisk (NVO) is one of two major players in the GLP-1 space, along with Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk had some execution missteps in the major North American market and allowed Eli Lilly to take a lead in a space Novo knows very well due to its massive insulin franchise. While the near-term is foggy, GLP-1's are still not used by anywhere near the number of adults who could potentially benefit from them, and even though pricing cou...
Pitch Summary:
Novo Nordisk (NVO) is one of two major players in the GLP-1 space, along with Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk had some execution missteps in the major North American market and allowed Eli Lilly to take a lead in a space Novo knows very well due to its massive insulin franchise. While the near-term is foggy, GLP-1's are still not used by anywhere near the number of adults who could potentially benefit from them, and even though pricing could be a headwind for the market overall and potentially Novo's major product Wegovy specifically, I believe the current mid-teens P/E valuation does not adequately reflect the long-term growth potential of the business.
BSD Analysis:
Novo Nordisk isn’t just a pharma company anymore — it’s running the closest thing to a legal monopoly the obesity market has ever seen. Wegovy and Ozempic have reshaped global healthcare demand so fast that every competitor is years behind in manufacturing, efficacy, or safety. Novo’s supply chain scaling is the real story: they’re turning capital spend into an impenetrable moat while rivals are still begging CMOs for capacity. Margins are exploding, free cash flow is surging, and governments are essentially underwriting long-term demand by treating obesity as a chronic disease. The market keeps pretending competition is coming “any day now,” but real-world prescription data says otherwise. Novo is printing cash, building barriers, and owning one of the biggest, stickiest drug categories in history. Valuation looks rich only if you underestimate how early we still are in global GLP-1 adoption.
Pitch Summary:
Despite my better judgment, I purchased shares in Endava (DAVA) again based on a number of factors: 1) Endava operating margins are at trough levels, 5-10 percentage points below peers, despite being at parity in the past; 2) all-time low valuation <10x P/E without adjusting for the trough margins; 3) peak pessimism from the market about disruption from AI at the same time AI developments on the ground have actually slowed down,...
Pitch Summary:
Despite my better judgment, I purchased shares in Endava (DAVA) again based on a number of factors: 1) Endava operating margins are at trough levels, 5-10 percentage points below peers, despite being at parity in the past; 2) all-time low valuation <10x P/E without adjusting for the trough margins; 3) peak pessimism from the market about disruption from AI at the same time AI developments on the ground have actually slowed down, and 4) customer-specific delays at a major customer that have hampered growth relative to peers. There is a lot of pessimism baked into the price of this business and I believe there is a self-help story here that either management or a bidder will ultimately seek to realize.
BSD Analysis:
Endava was the golden child of digital transformation until macro reality punched the entire IT consulting sector in the face — but the market is now overcorrecting. Yes, deal cycles slowed, and yes, clients pulled back, but Endava’s engineering talent, deep fintech relationships, and nearshore delivery model remain best-in-class. The company isn’t losing relevance; enterprises are simply deferring large projects until budgets unfreeze. Meanwhile, Endava has been quietly managing costs, preserving margins, and positioning itself for the next wave of AI-enabled consulting demand. Its track record of high ROIC, sticky client relationships, and repeat engagement puts it in a stronger position than most mid-cap IT vendors. At today’s valuation, the stock is priced like a structurally broken growth story despite having all the ingredients for a sharp rebound once spending normalizes. When digital budgets recover, Endava’s operating leverage will show up fast — and the stock will move before investors are ready.