Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Moody's Corporation is recognized for its insightful stability, with a strong balance sheet and robust margins reflecting its authoritative position in ratings and analytics. The company's steady revenue compounding and high ROIC highlight its capital allocation prowess. However, Moody's minimal ownership alignment and modest share reductions suggest room for more shareholder focus.

BSD Analysis:
Moody's balance sheet shines with low leverage and strong cash generation, though goodwill and intangibles form a substantial portion of assets, hinting at acquisition-driven growth. While Moody's excels in capital allocation with high ROIC and OCF well above net income, its Investment Readiness Score of 78.2 falls short of the threshold for deeper scrutiny. The company's stable ratings business and analytics expansion drive its premium valuation, but its growth prospects must continue to justify the valuation amid lower FCF yields compared to risk-free alternatives.

Pitch Summary:
The pitch argues that $PSKY represents an unusually asymmetric opportunity, with prior solvency concerns now largely removed and the company shifting into a growth phase supported by new contracts (notably UFC-related) and operational momentum. A controlling stake held by the Ellison family—via Skydance Media—is framed as a powerful alignment signal, with expectations that $30.50 warrants will be exercised and proceeds used to both delever and fund growth. Despite this, the stock is described as priced for bankruptcy, exacerbated by a tiny float and heavy short interest. The pitch highlights significant cost synergies ($2B) translating into material EPS uplift, implying substantial upside under even modest valuation multiples. Near-term catalysts include a potential debt upgrade, reduced index-related selling pressure, and speculation around a strategic combination with Warner Bros. Discovery.

BSD Analysis:
The media industry remains structurally challenged, but scale, premium content, and cost discipline increasingly separate potential consolidators from secular decliners. PSKY’s strategic positioning improves materially if leverage truly normalizes, as financial distress—not demand—has been the binding constraint on equity value. The Ellison-backed control structure enhances credibility around long-term capital support and aggressive cost rationalization, a critical differentiator versus sponsor-less peers. Identified cost savings, if realized, would materially reset earnings power and compress leverage quickly, though execution risk remains high in complex media integrations. Competitive risk persists from global streaming incumbents with superior balance sheets, limiting multiple expansion absent clear growth reacceleration. The heavy short interest and constrained float create technical upside optionality but should be viewed as a second-order effect rather than core thesis. Valuation appears to discount a low-probability survival scenario rather than a normalized earnings base. If balance-sheet repair is confirmed and strategic consolidation materializes, equity upside could be significant relative to current expectations.

Actual Post Content:
I have never seen a more asymmetrical setup than $PSKY - Solvency concerns off the table - Company now in growth mode (see UFC and coming contracts) - Controlling shareholder is 2nd richest man in the world. Skin in game - There is no greater force than a man's love for his kids. - Proceeds from those $30.50 warrants will be used to pay off debt or for growth capital. Probably both - Expectation that they will get those warrants exercised is why they wanted 70% of the company not 51%. They are expecting that dilution and have included it in their calcs - Company is currently priced like it's going bankrupt - Minuscule float and Massive Short Interest - Holders have been through the wringer for over a year. No current holder is selling until $30.00 - Ellison has identified $2B in savings which translates to about $2/sh eps. Add in the $1.00-1.50 existing EPS and you're at $3-3.5 in eps. Slap a 15x on it and you're at $45 easy. $50 because short squeeze. - Share price has been basing for over a year. We are technically set up for a big run after all the consolidation that has happened. Near term catalysts: - Potential debt upgrade. Was downgraded last year which allowed the deal through - Rumors of handshake deal with WBD to combine, which would create a streaming juggernaut. - Deletion from S&P is priced in (arguable). If this doesn't happen, then more upside.

URL: https://x.com/bichonredux/status/1955377880915140872

Pitch Summary:
JDC Group continues to deliver excellent results. And the stock market is finally starting to understand the potential. In the first 6 months of 2025, revenue grew by 14% YoY and EBITDA by 24%. The bottom line grew even more. Looking over a longer time horizon, the potential is even greater. Revenue has grown by 12% on average while EBITDA has grown by +30% per year. With the full recognition of FMK in 2026, we are quite confident that EBITDA will double to approximately EUR 40 million. This without any dilution. After several years of building their IT platform and landing new customer agreements, they are now starting to reap the benefits and are seeing their platform scale margins upwards, exactly as we expected. JDC announced at the beginning of August that they have acquired 60% of FMK Group. I think most investors have difficulty understanding the potential of this acquisition. FMK has shown impressive profitable growth since its foundation. FMK is a fantastic business in itself. Since its inception, they have grown revenue by 180% per year, while being very profitable with 30% margins. JDC has paid a multiple of approximately 8x for this, which in itself is very cheap. Although the growth in FMK's Personal Finance segment will come down from here, JDC still expects them to continue to grow. Where the greatest potential for JDC is, is that they can help FMK with their know-how and capabilities within the insurance industry. FMK itself has just started up within insurance with good LTV/CAC. However, it is still only 1% of their revenue, even though it is the potentially largest segment. JDC can help FMK win that market. At the same time, FMK can significantly increase the influx of new customers to JDC's platform.

BSD Analysis:
JDC Group is a deep-value, high-growth German financial technology company whose stock is an arbitrage play on the successful digitalization of the European financial advisory market. The core thesis is driven by its innovative Advisortech segment, which provides a comprehensive sales and advisory platform for independent financial advisors in Germany and Austria. The company’s platform offers a massive portfolio of financial products (investment funds, insurance, real estate) and technical platforms. Despite trading at a modest valuation, its strong quick ratio (1.82) and current ratio (1.86) signal a clean, low-risk balance sheet. JDC is a high-conviction bet on the structural, non-cyclical shift to technology-enabled financial advice in Europe.

Pitch Summary:
Updating my model for PAR Technology after Friday's financial statements. Rereading the transcript from the conference call. When I read the financial statements and listened to the conference call on Friday, it was quite disappointing. But after a closer look, the drop looks like a huge overreaction. Decided to buy up a lot of the stock. PAR is a stock that constantly gives us opportunities. We bought before and during Covid around 10-20 USD. Sold the majority in 2021 around 60-90 USD. Bought up a lot again in 2022 around 20-35 USD. Sold a lot in 2024 at 60-80 USD and have now bought up a lot again in 2025 - most recently in the 45-50 level after the financial statements. PAR has grown its ARR consequence over the entire period, delivered attractive acquisitions and has become profitable. Yet the stock market has given us 3 opportunities to buy the stock cheaply. Volatility in the market is truly an advantage for the long-term investor.

BSD Analysis:
PAR Technology is a high-growth, specialized restaurant technology provider whose stock is a conviction bet on the successful, multi-year shift of the restaurant industry to a cloud-native SaaS model. The core thesis is driven by its dominance in point-of-sale (POS) systems and its crucial ability to provide enterprise-level solutions for large, multi-location restaurant chains. The company is converting its legacy hardware base into a sticky, high-margin recurring revenue stream, with its Subscription Services segment driving strong growth. This is an indispensable provider, leveraging its deep domain expertise to integrate software, hardware, and services for maximum efficiency in a non-cyclical consumer sector.

Pitch Summary:
Credit Acceptance, a 50+ year old subprime auto lender, has compounded shareholder value dramatically (170x since IPO). The stock has stagnated for 6 years as weak 2021–23 loan cohorts underperformed, depressing revenue yields and EPS despite a 50% larger loan book and 50% fewer shares outstanding. Rising interest costs also pressured returns. Now, with problem cohorts seasoning out and new originations performing better, revenue yields are beginning to inflect. Q2’25 EPS was understated due to a $23m legal accrual; normalized earnings already suggest consensus underestimates. With $65+ EPS projected by 2026, shares trade at ~7x P/E, well below historical 10–15x. Buybacks are aggressive (4.5% of shares in a quarter), and regulatory overhang eased with CFPB lawsuit withdrawal. The setup points to outsized EPS growth, front-loaded in 2025–26, and potential rerating or further value creation through capital return.

BSD Analysis:
This is a classic contrarian compounder mispriced on short-term noise. EPS has been weighed down by poorly underwritten cohorts during a volatile macro/auto cycle, but the worst is behind them. As underperforming vintages roll off and new originations improve, yields will normalize. With high dealer engagement, disciplined underwriting, and proprietary CAPS integration into DMS platforms, growth should resume. Even with limited growth, buybacks at trough multiples compound per-share value rapidly. Regulatory relief (CFPB case dropped) reduces tail risk. The key is trusting CACC’s decades-long track record of underwriting discipline despite recent missteps. At ~7x normalized earnings and with strong capital allocation, the stock offers 25–30% IRR potential over 5 years. Risks: another collections miss, intense competition, or prolonged weak demand—but downside is mitigated by buybacks and strong EVA philosophy.

Pitch Summary:
West Fraser Timber is the largest lumber producer in North America (~9% share) and the world’s largest OSB producer (~29% share NA, ~10% EU). ~45% of sales come from lumber, ~55% from OSB/engineered wood, with a small pulp & paper segment. Both lumber and OSB are currently in cyclical downturns due to high mortgage rates, weak housing starts, and depressed repair & remodel activity. Additional pressure comes from U.S. tariffs on Canadian lumber. Despite this, WFG has a net cash balance sheet, investment-grade rating, and trough-level valuation. Historically, it has traded near 6x mid-cycle EBITDA or 1.25x P/B; applying those multiples suggests fair value around $110/share vs. ~$72 today. Capacity closures are accelerating, setting up a mean-reversion in pricing and margins. WFG is well positioned to outlast weaker peers and capture upside when housing activity normalizes.

BSD Analysis:
This is a classic cyclical mean-reversion bet. Lumber and OSB markets are at a trough, with producers announcing mill closures. WFG, with scale, diversified geography, and net cash, is the safest and most liquid proxy for the eventual recovery. Tariffs and demand uncertainty could delay the upturn, but history shows capacity reductions cure low prices. Valuation at ~0.8x P/B and <4x normalized EBITDA provides margin of safety. For investors comfortable with cyclicals, WFG offers asymmetric upside into the next housing/construction rebound.

Pitch Summary:
The recent rally in Tesla's stock price, driven by news of robotaxi developments in Texas, is unsustainable. The stock's technical indicators suggest a potential sell-off, and the news appears to be strategically timed to counteract negative sentiment from a significant legal ruling against Tesla.

BSD Analysis:
Tesla's stock has been buoyed by strategic news releases, such as the announcement of a ride-hailing permit in Texas, which has excited retail investors. However, these developments may not be as significant as they appear, given that the permit is similar to those held by companies like Uber and Lyft. Furthermore, the stock's recent technical performance, breaking above key moving averages, may not hold due to underlying legal challenges, including a substantial punitive damages ruling related to Tesla's Autopilot. The potential for further legal issues and regulatory scrutiny could weigh heavily on Tesla's future performance, making the recent stock price increases potentially short-lived.

Pitch Summary:
Beacon Minerals is positioned for significant upside due to its strategic location in Western Australia's Tier 1 mining jurisdiction, which offers political and legal stability, world-class infrastructure, and a skilled workforce. Despite current negative gross margins and high costs, the company is expanding its plant capacity and improving ore grades, which should enhance production efficiency and profitability. The acquisition of the Lady Ida project, with its higher-grade reserves, is expected to be a game-changer, potentially doubling production and significantly boosting cash flow. The company's strategy of holding gold as a liquid asset instead of cash provides leverage to rising gold prices, while its unhedged production allows full exposure to market price increases. Insider ownership is high, and recent insider buying indicates confidence in the company's future prospects.

BSD Analysis:
Beacon Minerals' enterprise value is supported by a strong balance sheet, with liquid assets including cash, gold in transit, and shares in Astral Resources. The company's focus on expanding its processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year aligns with its strategy to increase production through higher-grade ore from the Lady Ida project. The joint venture agreement for Lady Ida allows Beacon to incrementally increase its stake as production milestones are met, eventually leading to full ownership. The company's exploration efforts in Timor Leste, although currently paused, add optionality for future growth. Beacon's management demonstrates a commitment to shareholder value through potential buybacks and a focus on returning capital via dividends when feasible. The company's leverage to the gold price, combined with its strategic initiatives, positions it as an attractive investment in the gold mining sector.

Pitch Summary:
Exposure to online gaming companies such as Entain and Flutter added alpha over the quarter, supported by strong user engagement trends and favourable regulatory dynamics in key markets. Entain was up over +50% in the second quarter after upgrading 2025 guidance for its US business. Investors are starting to ascribe value to this segment as it is starting to generate meaningful profitability. We previously viewed Entain's US arm as a free call option that was not baked into valuation. We still see significant upside in Entain shares - US state governments are under pressure to generate tax revenues given the binge in spending and borrowing. Today online casino gaming (iGaming) has only been legalised in seven US states compared to 38 states with legalised online sports betting. We believe it is only a matter of time for new iGaming state legalisations, which will drive meaningful upside to earnings estimates.

BSD Analysis:
Entain is a global sports betting and gaming giant whose stock is a high-beta bet on the successful monetization of the U.S. sports betting market through its joint venture, BetMGM. The core thesis is driven by Entain's dominance in over 30 regulated or regulating markets (excluding the US), which are forecast to grow mid-single-digits annually. The company maintains an unparalleled portfolio of more than 35 iconic brands tailored to local markets. The company is positioned for growth, having achieved 7% year-over-year Group Revenue growth and 9% growth in Online Net Gaming Revenue. Entain is a conviction play on the long-term, non-cyclical growth of the global regulated gaming market, amplified by the immense upside potential of the U.S. sector.

Pitch Summary:
Logic Instrument is positioned to benefit from increased defense spending in Europe, with significant contracts and a strong presence in the rugged computing market.

BSD Analysis:
Logic Instrument has secured an €11 million contract with German Defense, reflecting its strategic advantage in the European market amid rising defense budgets. The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, particularly in France and Germany, driven by increased military expenditures. As EU countries prioritize local procurement, Logic Instrument's European production and partnerships enhance its competitive edge. The company's financial performance shows robust growth, with a 41% increase in net profit and a 32% rise in sales in the first half of 2025. Despite risks such as dependence on large orders and strong competition, Logic Instrument's niche market position and innovative capabilities present a compelling investment opportunity.

Pitch Summary:
Beacon Minerals is undervalued due to its current negative gross margins and high costs, but it has significant upside potential. The company is expanding its plant capacity and improving its gold grades, particularly with the acquisition of the Lady Ida project, which is expected to boost production and cash flow significantly. The stock is poised for a rerating if the gold price holds, supported by a strong financial position and strategic management decisions.

BSD Analysis:
Beacon Minerals operates in a top-tier mining jurisdiction with political and legal stability, which reduces operational risks. The company's strategic expansion of its plant capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year and the development of the Lady Ida project are expected to enhance production efficiency and profitability. The Lady Ida project, with its higher-grade reserves, is a game changer for Beacon, potentially doubling its production. Additionally, Beacon's decision to hold gold as a liquid asset rather than cash positions it well to benefit from rising gold prices. The company's management has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value through strategic acquisitions and potential share buybacks, further supporting the investment thesis.

Pitch Summary:
Last week, Fitlife Brands announced it was acquiring Irwin Naturals out of bankruptcy, doubling the size of its business. AI allowed us to produce a comprehensive update merely ~5 hours after the transformative acquisition. First, it located the bankruptcy filings in minutes, along with various news articles and financial disclosures of Irwin that otherwise would have taken us an hour or two to locate. Second, after we had pulled a few key documents, NotebookLM analyzed these documents at our behest to tell us which of the other 700+ filings likely contained important information. It referenced a few dozen, which we then downloaded to update its data-set (imagine how much time this saved vs. clicking download on 700 documents!). NotebookLM built a chronological narrative from thousands of pages of legal text, letting us focus on the filings that truly mattered. A manual approach would have taken days, yet still missed details buried in obscure exhibits. By following a wider range of companies in real-time, we build a much broader bottom-up view of how developments like AI, tariffs, and other key trends are actually impacting companies on the ground. Our recent investment in Grocery Outlet is a good example. Second, the watchlist also enhances our ability to act with timeliness. Our old watchlist only flagged companies for review when their prices declined, but there are often many interesting opportunities where a company's stock stays flat – or even rises – but value creation has outpaced the stock price, such that the stock is even cheaper despite a flat or higher price. (Fitlife is a great example of this, where the stock is flat to prices it traded at earlier this year, even though the acquisition boosts our fair value estimate by ~30%.) Again, for clarity: we are still perfectly willing to take larger positions when we believe the risk-reward is disproportionate – indeed, we were recently buying more Fitlife and Franklin Covey even though they were already our largest positions in the 8 – 10% range.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents Fitlife Brands as a compelling value creation story centered on the transformative acquisition of Irwin Naturals from bankruptcy, which doubles the company's size. The investment thesis highlights the manager's ability to rapidly analyze the complex bankruptcy proceedings and identify the strategic value of the transaction. The key insight is that while the stock price has remained flat, the acquisition has increased the manager's fair value estimate by approximately 30%, creating an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity. The manager demonstrates conviction by increasing the position size to 8-10% of the portfolio, indicating high confidence in the value creation potential. The acquisition appears to be strategically sound, allowing Fitlife to significantly expand its scale in the nutritional supplements market through a distressed purchase. The timing of the analysis, completed within hours of the announcement, suggests the manager was able to act decisively while others were still processing the complexity of the bankruptcy filing. This represents a classic value investing opportunity where corporate actions create temporary inefficiencies that can be exploited by prepared investors.

Pitch Summary:
Grocery Outlet is a business we'd never studied in depth before last month. On the surface, it appears to be just another grocer, but it has two unique traits that bear deep analysis: its opportunistic purchasing model (buying excess goods from CPGs, like Ross or TJ Maxx do in apparel) and its quasi-franchise independent operator structure, which creates a substantially different economic model than corporate-owned stores. Add in management and strategic changes that required diligence – including studying new CEO Jason Potter's background at The Fresh Market – a botched ERP rollout, and inflation, and it's a complex story that would normally have taken us nearly two weeks to diligence in depth. We were fortunate to establish a position before the company's recent 40%+ pop after a strong earnings report and extremely impressive conference call from new CEO Jason Potter. Without AI, we would've filed it under "interesting, but no time" and missed the move entirely. Conversely, we held on to most of our Grocery Outlet (GO) stock after the 40%+ post-earnings pop, only making a modest trim, because as we continued to conduct more due diligence, including a half-dozen calls with former key leaders, we concluded that it is a special and competitively differentiated business that has suffered from a combination of excessive growth expectations (which led to a lack of focus on getting the basics right), as well as a botched ERP implementation (which caused ripple effects throughout the business). With new CEO Jason Potter having an excellent history of turning around grocery peer The Fresh Market (TFM) – and a refreshed Board including former Sprouts CFO Chip Molloy – the setup here reminds us a lot of Jack Sinclair's early days at Sprouts. Given the habitual nature of grocery purchase, it takes time for operating improvements to flow through to comp growth, but there seems to be a multi-year runway for driving numerous blocking-and-tackling self-help improvements, ranging from private label penetration to better merchandising to better technology tools for stores to manage their forecasting / inventory ordering. We sold Sprouts far too soon, and don't intend to make the same mistake here. Finally, this is a business that benefits from many of the key challenges in the world – it passes along inflation to consumers, and as an extreme-value grocer, it sees not only stable but rapidly growing demand during economic downturns (it comped something like 27% cumulatively in 2008/2009 during the GFC). Therefore, although the stock is not screamingly cheap at ~17.5x our forward estimate of NOPAT, we believe that its very stable demand profile – and a long runway of improvements – make it worth continuing to hold a meaningful position.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling turnaround thesis for Grocery Outlet, emphasizing its unique opportunistic purchasing model and independent operator structure that differentiates it from traditional grocers. The investment case centers on new CEO Jason Potter's proven track record at The Fresh Market and the potential for multi-year operational improvements following a botched ERP implementation. The manager highlights the company's defensive characteristics, noting its ability to pass through inflation and benefit from economic downturns, as evidenced by 27% cumulative comps during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The pitch emphasizes multiple self-help opportunities including private label penetration, merchandising improvements, and better inventory management systems. At approximately 17.5x forward NOPAT, the valuation appears reasonable given the company's stable demand profile and improvement runway. The manager's comparison to Sprouts' successful turnaround under Jack Sinclair provides additional context for the potential upside. The defensive nature of the grocery business model, combined with the extreme-value positioning, creates an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity during uncertain economic times.

Pitch Summary:
Last summer, when we began to notice the junior gold miners, the price of gold was around $2,500/oz. An example miner had an AISC around $1,900/oz, and set to decrease costs to $1,800/oz. That implied a selling margin of $600/oz, and the company was producing 10,000oz per quarter. This equated to an operating profit of $6 million per quarter, or $24 million per year. At the time it was value at $75 million and looked set to have cash of $20 million by the end of the year. Cheap on the face of it, or conversely, showing a large margin of safety against a fall in the gold price. This same business is now producing 11,000oz per quarter, likely rising to 12,000oz before year-end. At a gold selling price of $3,200/oz, with no AISC improvement, the margin would be $1,300/oz, implying annual operating profit of $62.4 million. It's now valued at $244 million and has net cash of $25 million, likely increasing well above $30 million by year-end. On an enterprise valuation of $214 million, it still trades at 3.4x; a great business even after the share price has risen has risen 220%. To answer the question the reader may be asking at this point: Serabi Gold plc. But it's not the only one. There are many other similar stocks in the gold and broader precious metals space, with a common theme of underpricing relative to current gold levels and sustaining costs, alongside growth opportunities from exploration.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents Serabi Gold as a compelling example of the junior gold mining opportunity, demonstrating exceptional operating leverage to rising gold prices. Initially identified when gold traded at $2,500/oz, Serabi had an AISC of $1,900/oz and was producing 10,000oz quarterly, generating $24 million annual operating profit on a $75 million valuation. With gold now at $3,200/oz and production increasing to 11,000oz quarterly (targeting 12,000oz), the company generates $62.4 million in annual operating profit. Despite a 220% share price appreciation to $244 million market cap, Serabi trades at only 3.4x enterprise value to operating profit, representing exceptional value. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $25 million net cash, expected to exceed $30 million by year-end. The investment thesis centers on the significant margin of safety provided by low all-in sustaining costs relative to current gold prices, combined with production growth and exploration upside. This positions Serabi as a leveraged play on sustained higher gold prices while maintaining downside protection through low cost operations.

Pitch Summary:
Elsewhere in the portfolio, Logic Instrument continued to deliver strong operating results, supported by the benefits of recent M&A activity. In cases like this, it is often important to trust management's guidance, provided they have a record of honesty and accuracy. Here, we have a company that is projecting revenue growth from just under €30 million last year to nearly €50 million this year. While the company slightly missed guidance last year, even a shortfall this year, say to €44 million, would still represent a 57% increase in revenues. As we have written previously, Logic Instrument benefits from a collection of partial moats which together provide meaningful protection for the business and are driving growth. The company is a subsidiary of Archos, run by Loïc Poirier, and there are increasing signs that the child is outgrowing the parent. In 2018, revenues at Archos were €63.4 million compared to €11.2 million at Logic Instrument; by 2024, Archos had declined to €31.4 million while Logic Instrument had grown to €27.4 million. If Logic achieves anything close to its sales target this year, it is likely to surpass the parent in terms of the size of its income statement. Concerns around the parent's history of dilution and lack of profitability are likely having a depressing knock-on effect on Logic Instrument's valuation. Archos has little or no moat, competing in the highly saturated consumer mobile and tablet market dominated by Samsung, Apple, and others. By contrast, Logic Instrument operates in the much more niche rugged device offshoot of the device market, where its competitors include Getac, Durabook, MilDef, and Panasonic's Toughbook line. Its moat stems from geography (a European base serving local defense and industrial markets), history (an experienced salesforce with long-standing relationships), and technical expertise (meeting demanding military and industrial specifications). Returning to Logic Instrument, it may at first appear to have little or no moat. Its main moat lies in its the niche products, but even there it has competitors. However, if globalization reduces, and products — especially those linked to military application — become more regional, that could increase its moat. The company has also won several contracts that demonstrate, as the company itself has noted, that its salesforce is deeply embedded in certain markets and customer relationships. Also the company's ISO certifications and exacting specifications of its rugged devices also create barriers to entry, since developing technologies that meet such requirements takes significant time and expertise. Taken together, these factors amount to a much larger moat than may be seen at first glance.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling thesis for Logic Instrument as a specialized rugged device manufacturer with multiple defensive moats. The company is projected to grow revenues from €30 million to nearly €50 million, representing 67% growth, driven by recent M&A activity and strong execution. Logic Instrument operates in the niche rugged device market serving defense and industrial customers, competing against established players like Getac and Panasonic's Toughbook line. The investment case rests on several competitive advantages: geographic positioning in Europe for defense markets, experienced salesforce with embedded customer relationships, and technical expertise meeting demanding military specifications. The company benefits from ISO certifications and regulatory barriers that create meaningful entry obstacles. Logic Instrument is poised to surpass its parent company Archos in revenue scale, despite being held back by the parent's poor track record. The manager views the current valuation as depressed due to association with the struggling parent, creating an attractive entry point for a growing, profitable subsidiary with sustainable competitive advantages.

Pitch Summary:
In late April we wrote a post about TSS, Inc. when it was trading at $7.53, giving it a market value of $189 million. Revenues had grown 172% from 2023 to 2024, driven by a 264% year-on-year increase in the systems integration segment through Q4 2024. Assuming more moderate growth and similar margins, the stock was trading at 12–13x forward earnings, or in the high single digits under more aggressive assumptions. The name re-rated within weeks, helped by shifting sentiment during the tariff relief rally, and further accelerated on May 15 when Q1 results showed revenues of $99 million, up 523% from the prior-year quarter. The stock re-rated to above $30 by late June, pushing the valuation above $750 million. This was a difficult situation to assess with a rapidly growing company. On the one hand, growth had been exceptional; on the other, such momentum rarely lasts indefinitely, and we believed it was only a matter of time before it slowed. At that point, the earnings-based valuation appeared far less attractive. We therefore sold the position but continued to monitor the name along with several other AI infrastructure stocks, particularly those with multiple business segments that can support sales growth over a long horizon. As of the time of writing, TSS, Inc. has fallen to the $17 area, partly due to results that disappointed the market and partly due to a public offering of common stock priced at $17 per share. Q2 revenues of $44.0 million were lower than Q1, but still represented a 262% year-on-year increase. Revenues remain lumpy at this stage in the company's life cycle, but the overall growth has been extraordinary. We will continue to look past short-term noise around these kinds of stocks and continually compare the price presented by the market to our assessment of the fundamental value of the business.

BSD Analysis:
The manager identified TSS as an undervalued AI infrastructure play trading at attractive multiples despite exceptional revenue growth of 172% in 2024. The thesis centered on the company's systems integration segment benefiting from AI data center buildout, with revenues growing 264% year-over-year through Q4 2024. At $7.53, the stock traded at 12-13x forward earnings, representing significant value given the growth trajectory. The position was successfully monetized as the stock re-rated to above $30 following strong Q1 results showing 523% revenue growth. However, the manager prudently exited recognizing that such momentum rarely sustains indefinitely and valuations had become stretched. The subsequent decline to $17 following disappointing Q2 results and equity offering validates this disciplined approach. While revenue growth remains extraordinary at 262% year-over-year, the lumpy nature of revenues at this stage reflects the company's early development phase in the AI infrastructure cycle.

Pitch Summary:
Gold has now risen into the $3,400/oz area (as of the time of writing). Although the prices of junior gold miners have risen overall, they still appear to be lagging the implied valuation of their businesses. There is a wide margin of safety between the prices of these stocks, if one thinks of them as a series of quarterly call options struck at the AISC5 for each business, and with the gold selling price as the price of the underlying. Gold December futures now stand at $3,404/oz and, at these levels, the businesses we own are still trading on an earnings multiple of 3-4x; cheap, especially given the expected growth in production. Last summer, when we began to notice the junior gold miners, the price of gold was around $2,500/oz. An example miner had an AISC around $1,900/oz, and set to decrease costs to $1,800/oz. That implied a selling margin of $600/oz, and the company was producing 10,000oz per quarter. This equated to an operating profit of $6 million per quarter, or $24 million per year. At the time it was value at $75 million and looked set to have cash of $20 million by the end of the year. Cheap on the face of it, or conversely, showing a large margin of safety against a fall in the gold price. This same business is now producing 11,000oz per quarter, likely rising to 12,000oz before year-end. At a gold selling price of $3,200/oz, with no AISC improvement, the margin would be $1,300/oz, implying annual operating profit of $62.4 million. It’s now valued at $244 million and has net cash of $25 million, likely increasing well above $30 million by year-end. On an enterprise valuation of $214 million, it still trades at 3.4x; a great business even after the share price has risen has risen 220%. To answer the question the reader may be asking at this point: Serabi Gold plc. But it’s not the only one. There are many other similar stocks in the gold and broader precious metals space, with a common theme of underpricing relative to current gold levels and sustaining costs, alongside growth opportunities from exploration.

BSD Analysis:
Serabi is a small Brazilian gold miner focused on high-grade underground deposits in the Tapajós region — a geology that gives it strong grade profiles but naturally higher operating complexity. Production levels are modest, but when grades cooperate, Serabi can generate solid cash flow relative to its size. The company’s investment case hinges on expanding resource life and improving throughput, both of which could unlock meaningful re-rating if executed well. Brazil risk, permitting timelines, and local infrastructure constraints are always part of the equation. Gold prices add another layer of volatility, magnified by the company’s small scale. But for investors who want asymmetric exposure to gold with operational leverage, Serabi offers torque that larger producers can’t match. This is a classic high-risk, high-reward junior miner story.

Pitch Summary:
In late April we wrote a post about TSS, Inc. when it was trading at $7.53, giving it a market value of $189 million. Revenues had grown 172% from 2023 to 2024, driven by a 264% year-on-year increase in the systems integration segment through Q4 2024. Assuming more moderate growth and similar margins, the stock was trading at 12–13x forward earnings, or in the high single digits under more aggressive assumptions. The name re-rated within weeks, helped by shifting sentiment during the tariff relief rally, and further accelerated on May 15 when Q1 results showed revenues of $99 million, up 523% from the prior-year quarter. The stock re-rated to above $30 by late June, pushing the valuation above $750 million. This was a difficult situation to assess with a rapidly growing company. On the one hand, growth had been exceptional; on the other, such momentum rarely lasts indefinitely, and we believed it was only a matter of time before it slowed. At that point, the earnings-based valuation appeared far less attractive. We therefore sold the position but continued to monitor the name along with several other AI infrastructure stocks, particularly those with multiple business segments that can support sales growth over a long horizon. As of the time of writing, TSS, Inc. has fallen to the $17 area, partly due to results that disappointed the market and partly due to a public offering of common stock priced at $17 per share. Q2 revenues of $44.0 million were lower than Q1, but still represented a 262% year-on-year increase. Revenues remain lumpy at this stage in the company’s life cycle, but the overall growth has been extraordinary. We will continue to look past short-term noise around these kinds of stocks and continually compare the price presented by the market to our assessment of the fundamental value of the business.

BSD Analysis:
TSS is a micro-cap data center infrastructure and services provider operating in the slipstream of the hyperscale and edge build-out cycle. The company focuses on modular power, cooling, and integration services — unglamorous but essential components that must scale as AI workloads explode. Because TSS plays in specialized niches, it can win business where speed, customization, and technical reliability matter more than brand recognition. The balance sheet is tight, and revenue concentration can make quarters swing violently, but the long-term demand backdrop is structurally favorable. If management can capture a larger share of edge deployments and modular data center upgrades, operating leverage becomes meaningful fast. Investors often overlook TSS entirely due to size, but the company sits in a growth pocket few understand. High risk, high torque.

Pitch Summary:
This shift has already proven its worth . During our proxy contest at AstroNova, AI tools helped us produce the extensive ISS deck and other materials that would have been vastly more costly to prepare otherwise (i.e., we would have needed to spend an incremental six figures, and/or developed far lower quality work -product). We earned endorsements from both ISS and Glass Lewi s, and the incumbent board requested the CEO’s resignation . I believe, though it is of course impossible to verify, that we may well have run the first AI -powered proxy contest in history. Although we are still early in implementing this technology, and further advances (such as GPT -5) are arriving in real time, we are mostly through rebuilding all of our core tools we have relied on for a decade to be AI -first – from our research documents to our watchlist. Some of this is still under construction, which is why we ask for your patience for another month or two before we return to full tear -sheets and portfolio commentary .

BSD Analysis:
AstroNova is a specialty printer and data-acquisition company tied to aerospace, industrial labeling, and proprietary printing tech. Its aerospace business benefits from high retrofit and replacement demand, and industrial labeling is a sticky, consumables-heavy category. Margins are improving thanks to mix shift, and the company’s intellectual property in specialty printing keeps competition thin. It’s a slow-burn industrial-tech compounder the market barely watches.

Pitch Summary:
Automating the tedious parts. For companies we know well , such as Franklin Covey or LGI Homes , I had largely abandoned writing formal quarterly updates, relying on quick notes or sometimes skipping updates altogether . That saved time, but it risked missing subtle developments or losing the thread of how my thinking evolved over multiple quarters . AI changes this by handling the repetitive parts of quarterly reporting . I am restructuring our research format so that KPIs and expectations are tracked in a w ay that allows AI to auto -generate the factual quarterly updates . That frees me to spend my time focusing on understanding key shifts and qualitative nuances that AI cannot see , and writing down only these portions of the analysis. (AI now writes ~75% of our research, at least as a first draft; I simply go through and edit, add, or subtract as needed until it matches what I have in my head – but this is still vastly faster than doing it by hand.)

BSD Analysis:
Franklin Covey transformed itself from a training-seminar relic into a high-recurring SaaS-like leadership and organizational performance platform. The All Access Pass subscription is sticky, high-margin, and deeply embedded in corporate HR budgets. Renewal rates are strong, NPS is high, and the company’s shift to digital delivery massively improved operating leverage. This is a niche human-capital software play with a far better economic model than its legacy brand suggests.