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Pitch Summary:
CME Group is described as the world’s “risk bookmaker,” benefiting from powerful network effects and near-monopoly positions in key futures contracts. The exchange’s vertically integrated execution and clearing model reinforces liquidity and lowers transaction costs, creating a winner-takes-all dynamic. CME is particularly well positioned to benefit from long-term growth in U.S. government debt markets, which should drive sustained...
Pitch Summary:
CME Group is described as the world’s “risk bookmaker,” benefiting from powerful network effects and near-monopoly positions in key futures contracts. The exchange’s vertically integrated execution and clearing model reinforces liquidity and lowers transaction costs, creating a winner-takes-all dynamic. CME is particularly well positioned to benefit from long-term growth in U.S. government debt markets, which should drive sustained increases in interest rate futures trading volumes. Additionally, improved retail brokerage technology and smaller contract sizes are expanding access for a new class of pro-retail traders. Historically, CME has performed exceptionally well during periods of heightened volatility, positioning it as both a structural compounder and a hedge in uncertain markets.
BSD Analysis:
CME Group is an unassailable, high-margin financial exchange oligopolist whose stock is a conviction bet on the structural dominance of its derivatives marketplace. The core moat is its near-monopoly on high-volume futures and options contracts (interest rates, currencies, energy), creating an unbreakable network effect where liquidity attracts liquidity. The financial model is structurally superior, maintaining a colossal pre-tax profit margin of 76.5% in the last quarter. Despite uninspiring revenue growth in the short term, the company’s operating discipline is evident as expenses have consistently grown slower than revenue, driving accelerating earnings growth. CME is a defensive compounder whose fortress balance sheet (low 0.1x debt-to-equity) and essential role in global financial plumbing justify its premium valuation.
Pitch Summary:
GE Aerospace was cited as a key beneficiary of robust aftermarket demand alongside Safran. The managers highlighted structural drivers including aging fleets, delayed aircraft deliveries, and sustained global air traffic growth. Aftermarket backlogs are expanding as service demand outpaces capacity, reinforcing confidence in near-term growth. Industry feedback from the Paris Air Show supported expectations for prolonged strength ac...
Pitch Summary:
GE Aerospace was cited as a key beneficiary of robust aftermarket demand alongside Safran. The managers highlighted structural drivers including aging fleets, delayed aircraft deliveries, and sustained global air traffic growth. Aftermarket backlogs are expanding as service demand outpaces capacity, reinforcing confidence in near-term growth. Industry feedback from the Paris Air Show supported expectations for prolonged strength across engine maintenance and services.
BSD Analysis:
GE Aerospace is now a more focused, higher-quality engine and services company, and that focus is exactly what investors wanted for years. The engine installed base and aftermarket economics are the crown jewels: long-duration service contracts tied to flight hours create powerful recurring revenue. As aircraft utilization normalizes and new deliveries ramp, GE benefits from both volume and higher-margin service mix. Execution risk remains around supply chain constraints and durability issues, but the trend in operational discipline has improved meaningfully. GE’s position on major narrowbody and widebody platforms gives it long-cycle visibility and pricing leverage. This is less about quarter-to-quarter deliveries and more about a compounding service annuity. If the cycle stays constructive, GE Aerospace can grow into a premium-quality industrial multiple.
Pitch Summary:
Safran benefited from continued strength in the aerospace aftermarket, driven by aging fleets, high aircraft utilization, and sustained air traffic growth. Aftermarket demand is consistently outpacing capacity, with engine maintenance wait times stretching from months to years. Insights from the Paris Air Show reinforced expectations for above-average growth to persist near term. This environment strongly favors engine manufacturer...
Pitch Summary:
Safran benefited from continued strength in the aerospace aftermarket, driven by aging fleets, high aircraft utilization, and sustained air traffic growth. Aftermarket demand is consistently outpacing capacity, with engine maintenance wait times stretching from months to years. Insights from the Paris Air Show reinforced expectations for above-average growth to persist near term. This environment strongly favors engine manufacturers like Safran with large installed bases and long-duration service contracts.
BSD Analysis:
Safran is one of the best aerospace compounders because it earns the real money in engines and aftermarket services, not just selling hardware. Flight hours drive recurring service revenue, and the installed base grows over time, creating a compounding annuity-like profile. The company benefits from strong positions in propulsion, aircraft equipment, and defense, giving it both growth and resilience. The key risk is supply-chain execution and production rates—when OEM ramps get messy, timing and margins can wobble. Still, once an engine platform is entrenched, it’s extremely sticky and lasts for decades. Safran’s pricing power and engineering depth make it hard to displace. If global travel holds up, Safran’s cash flow profile can remain structurally strong.
Pitch Summary:
Aerospace was the largest contributor to portfolio performance, supported by insights from meetings at the Paris Air Show. Airbus is benefiting from an improving outlook for original equipment as supply chain constraints gradually ease, enabling delivery acceleration against a large multi-year order backlog. Pricing is highlighted as an underappreciated tailwind, with new aircraft reportedly selling at 30–40% premiums to pre-pandem...
Pitch Summary:
Aerospace was the largest contributor to portfolio performance, supported by insights from meetings at the Paris Air Show. Airbus is benefiting from an improving outlook for original equipment as supply chain constraints gradually ease, enabling delivery acceleration against a large multi-year order backlog. Pricing is highlighted as an underappreciated tailwind, with new aircraft reportedly selling at 30–40% premiums to pre-pandemic levels due to supply-demand imbalance. Management cited significant reductions in missing parts and progress toward peak production levels. These dynamics support confidence in sustained earnings growth into the late 2020s and early 2030s.
BSD Analysis:
Airbus is in an enviable position: commercial aircraft demand is strong, fleet replacement is unavoidable, and supply constraints limit how fast capacity can come online. The duopoly structure with Boeing gives Airbus pricing power and long-cycle visibility that most industrials can’t dream of. The main bottleneck is execution—engines, suppliers, and production ramp stability are the constraints that determine delivery timing and cash flow. Aftermarket and services add a higher-margin layer, though OEM economics still dominate the narrative. Defense and space provide diversification, but commercial remains the big lever. If production ramps cleanly, operating leverage is substantial because fixed costs don’t rise proportionally. Airbus is essentially a long-duration bet on global air travel and disciplined industrial execution.
Pitch Summary:
Mastercard declined alongside Visa as headlines around stablecoin regulation and adoption triggered a market selloff. The managers emphasize that stablecoins offer limited advantages in everyday consumer payments, where Mastercard’s network already provides low costs, rewards, and fraud protection. Merchant and consumer inertia further limits rapid behavioral change. Importantly, Mastercard has announced partnerships in the stablec...
Pitch Summary:
Mastercard declined alongside Visa as headlines around stablecoin regulation and adoption triggered a market selloff. The managers emphasize that stablecoins offer limited advantages in everyday consumer payments, where Mastercard’s network already provides low costs, rewards, and fraud protection. Merchant and consumer inertia further limits rapid behavioral change. Importantly, Mastercard has announced partnerships in the stablecoin ecosystem, positioning itself to benefit from innovation rather than be displaced. The firm concludes that Mastercard’s competitive position remains robust despite short-term volatility.
BSD Analysis:
Mastercard has the same “global commerce tollbooth” economics as Visa, with strong exposure to cross-border volumes and higher-growth digital flows. The company’s strategy increasingly focuses on being more than a card network—identity, fraud prevention, tokenization, and B2B payments are all higher-value layers. That shift matters because it reduces dependence on any single fee line and strengthens switching costs for customers. Regulatory scrutiny is always present, but Mastercard’s global diversification and services attach provide resilience. The big upside comes when travel and cross-border commerce are healthy, because those flows carry better economics. The risk is mostly valuation sensitivity and any major regulatory hit to pricing. It remains one of the cleanest long-duration compounders in financial infrastructure.
Pitch Summary:
Visa underperformed during the quarter amid investor concerns around the adoption of stablecoins and potential disruption to card networks. The managers argue that stablecoins may offer benefits in cross-border remittances but provide limited value in consumer payments, where card networks already deliver low merchant costs, rewards, and protections. Consumer adoption faces a chicken-and-egg problem, limiting near-term displacement...
Pitch Summary:
Visa underperformed during the quarter amid investor concerns around the adoption of stablecoins and potential disruption to card networks. The managers argue that stablecoins may offer benefits in cross-border remittances but provide limited value in consumer payments, where card networks already deliver low merchant costs, rewards, and protections. Consumer adoption faces a chicken-and-egg problem, limiting near-term displacement risk. Furthermore, Visa has proactively announced stablecoin partnerships, reflecting that innovation is more likely to be built on top of existing card rails rather than replace them. As a result, the firm believes Visa’s dominant position in the payments ecosystem remains intact.
BSD Analysis:
Visa is effectively a toll collector on global commerce, earning high-margin fees as money moves across its network. The core growth driver is still the long, steady shift from cash to electronic payments, especially in emerging markets. Visa doesn’t take credit risk, which makes the model cleaner than lenders—its business is rails, rules, and security. New flows like B2B payments, cross-border, and real-time connectivity extend the runway beyond consumer card swipes. Regulatory and interchange pressure are ongoing, but Visa has repeatedly adapted while preserving economics through value-added services and network scale. Operating margins and free cash flow are elite, enabling consistent buybacks and compounding per share. It’s a quality financial with tech-like scalability.
Pitch Summary:
The managers remain optimistic on Amazon’s cloud business as a core beneficiary of accelerating AI adoption. Similar to Microsoft, enterprises are increasingly shifting workloads to the cloud to access AI capabilities that require significant computing power. The letter highlights confidence that Amazon can generate attractive returns on its elevated capital investment cycle, drawing on historical precedent from earlier AWS expansi...
Pitch Summary:
The managers remain optimistic on Amazon’s cloud business as a core beneficiary of accelerating AI adoption. Similar to Microsoft, enterprises are increasingly shifting workloads to the cloud to access AI capabilities that require significant computing power. The letter highlights confidence that Amazon can generate attractive returns on its elevated capital investment cycle, drawing on historical precedent from earlier AWS expansion phases. AWS is positioned as a foundational infrastructure layer for AI, with long-term demand visibility supported by secular enterprise migration and data intensity. This dynamic reinforces Amazon’s strategic importance despite ongoing market debate around capex and near-term returns.
BSD Analysis:
Amazon is still two businesses: a retail/logistics machine that trades short-term profits for long-term dominance, and AWS, a high-margin cloud utility powering modern computing. The retail side has improved efficiency meaningfully, and fulfillment optimization is finally translating into better margins without sacrificing customer experience. AWS remains the core profit engine, and AI workloads are creating a new demand wave that can re-accelerate growth. Advertising is an underappreciated third leg—high-margin, data-driven, and increasingly important to brands chasing purchase intent. The risk is that competition in cloud and retail never sleeps, and capex demands remain huge. But Amazon’s scale advantages in logistics, data, and distribution keep compounding. If you want one company exposed to consumer, enterprise, and AI infrastructure, this is the blunt instrument.
Pitch Summary:
Microsoft rallied approximately 32% in Q2 and a further 8% following earnings as Azure cloud growth significantly exceeded expectations. Management highlighted Azure AI revenues growing 175% year over year and a fivefold increase in the number of tokens processed, underscoring accelerating AI-driven demand. Importantly, AI is acting as a catalyst for broader cloud adoption as enterprises migrate workloads to access cloud-native AI ...
Pitch Summary:
Microsoft rallied approximately 32% in Q2 and a further 8% following earnings as Azure cloud growth significantly exceeded expectations. Management highlighted Azure AI revenues growing 175% year over year and a fivefold increase in the number of tokens processed, underscoring accelerating AI-driven demand. Importantly, AI is acting as a catalyst for broader cloud adoption as enterprises migrate workloads to access cloud-native AI tools. While there has been debate around the scale of capital expenditure and returns, the firm draws parallels to Microsoft’s mid-2010s cloud buildout, which ultimately produced a $95 billion revenue business with 25–30% operating margins. The AI business is already operating below peak capital intensity from the prior cloud cycle while generating nearly $14 billion in annualized revenue after just two years.
BSD Analysis:
Microsoft is the default platform for enterprise IT, and the AI wave is turning that platform advantage into a new monetization layer. Azure’s integration with Office, security, and developer tools creates powerful lock-in, making Microsoft one of the most durable “budget line item” vendors in corporate tech. Copilot embeds AI into workflows, which is how AI goes from hype to recurring revenue at scale. The company’s security franchise is also quietly becoming a major growth engine as threats increase and customers consolidate vendors. The main risk is capex intensity—AI is compute-hungry—but Microsoft can fund it with enormous cash flow. Regulation is a permanent background risk for a company this dominant, but Microsoft has a long track record of navigating it. This is the cleanest mega-cap way to own AI, cloud, and enterprise software compounding.
Pitch Summary:
Sanuwave continues on with the theme of rapid growth and an imminent Nasdaq uplisting. In March, SNWV announced its uplisting to the Nasdaq and was added to the Russell 2000 index at the end of June. For the first half of the year, Sanuwave has grown revenue 51%. Even more impressive, this growth was achieved without a national sales presence. Following the first half of the year, the company now has a national sales force along wi...
Pitch Summary:
Sanuwave continues on with the theme of rapid growth and an imminent Nasdaq uplisting. In March, SNWV announced its uplisting to the Nasdaq and was added to the Russell 2000 index at the end of June. For the first half of the year, Sanuwave has grown revenue 51%. Even more impressive, this growth was achieved without a national sales presence. Following the first half of the year, the company now has a national sales force along with a key account manager focused on pursuing large accounts that have several hundred locations across the country. Management reaffirmed guidance for the year, which appears to be on the conservative side as it doesn’t include the potential for any new large accounts. Additionally, management indicated that they have been pursuing options to refinance their debt and have received several options with very attractive terms, removing the fear of a potential equity offering. With a large account manager and their first ever targeted outbound marketing campaign I expect Sanuwave to continue to execute. Gross margins should continue to expand beyond the current 78% through manufacturing improvements. Shares continue to represent an attractive investment as the company trades at a discount to similar medical device companies with less attractive growth prospects.
BSD Analysis:
Sanuwave is a micro-cap medtech-style story where the entire investment case typically hinges on clinical validation, commercialization execution, and funding runway. If the technology improves outcomes and reimbursement is achievable, upside can be large because small starting revenue bases scale fast. The downside is dilution risk and long sales cycles—hospitals and clinics don’t adopt new devices quickly without clear economic proof. Investors should watch regulatory status, payer coverage progress, and whether repeat usage is growing, not just headline announcements. Manufacturing, distribution, and clinician training can become hidden execution traps. This is not a “steady compounder” setup; it’s a high-variance adoption and financing story. Position sizing matters more than conviction here.
Pitch Summary:
Solésence (SLSN), formerly Nanophase Technologies (NANX), manufactures zinc oxide, a crucial mineral for sunscreens that protects against both UVA and UVB rays. The company caught my attention during the first half of 2024 as an intriguing investment due to its stock price being under pressure despite its rapid growth and attractive product offering. This was due to manufacturing issues that squeezed profit margins and a lawsuit wi...
Pitch Summary:
Solésence (SLSN), formerly Nanophase Technologies (NANX), manufactures zinc oxide, a crucial mineral for sunscreens that protects against both UVA and UVB rays. The company caught my attention during the first half of 2024 as an intriguing investment due to its stock price being under pressure despite its rapid growth and attractive product offering. This was due to manufacturing issues that squeezed profit margins and a lawsuit with a long-term customer. However, management's commentary suggested these problems were likely to be resolved favorably in the near term along with continued rapid growth and a potential uplisting to the Nasdaq. The company resolved the litigation favorably last April and continues to do business with the customer, removing an overhang on the stock price. Revenue for the first six months of this year have grown 53%, but the company is still struggling with lower margins due to one-time costs to onboard new large customers. In April, the company uplisted to the Nasdaq and was added to the Russell 2000 index in the most recent reconstitution, this has seemingly led to increased volume and momentum in the stock price. With the stock, at one point, up over 100% for the year and above my estimate of fair value, I chose to exit the majority of our position at favorable prices.
BSD Analysis:
Solésence looks like a small specialty-formulation business, where value is created through IP, formulation know-how, and sticky customer relationships rather than sheer scale. These companies win when they own a high-value niche—think performance ingredients or advanced formulations where customers pay for outcomes, not commodities. The risk is that small operators can get squeezed by input-cost volatility and customer concentration. The upside is meaningful if the company is moving up the value chain into higher-margin, proprietary products with repeat demand. Investors should focus on gross margin trend, repeat customer concentration, and evidence of pricing power. If management can keep working capital tight and expand higher-margin offerings, operating leverage can appear quickly. This is a “small base, big operating leverage” setup—if it’s real.
Pitch Summary:
ImmuCell’s thesis remains intact following record first quarter results. The highlight of the quarter was the expansion in gross margins to 42%, resulting in record net income and cash flow. Management is targeting further expansion of gross margins to 45% and it appears this is within sight as there hasn’t been a contamination issue since last April and production has been operating at full capacity for two quarters in a row now. ...
Pitch Summary:
ImmuCell’s thesis remains intact following record first quarter results. The highlight of the quarter was the expansion in gross margins to 42%, resulting in record net income and cash flow. Management is targeting further expansion of gross margins to 45% and it appears this is within sight as there hasn’t been a contamination issue since last April and production has been operating at full capacity for two quarters in a row now. With production stabilized, the sales team is now able to pivot to bringing in new business from both existing products and the expansion into the new bulk powder First Defense product line. This new scours product will be targeted at large calf raising ranches that don’t individually dose calves for scours prevention, introducing a new market that the company historically has not served. On the mastitis side of the business, Re-Tain’s FDA license is still in limbo pending a facility inspection approval at their contract manufacturer. Although the continued delay is frustrating, the company has received authorization for investigational use of Re-Tain. This will allow ImmuCell to market the product for use and receive valuable customer feedback and data. Results of this investigational use should be available around year-end, providing valuable information to bring on a potential strategic partner for a full-scale commercial launch. I believe that ImmuCell is at a major inflection point, with scours production finally stabilized and the impending FDA approval of Re-Tain, there is a prime opportunity for any talented executive to take over the reigns with a clear path to create immense value for themselves and shareholders in the immediate future. Clearly, I am still very optimistic about the upside for ICCC as it currently is valued at a single digit multiple of earnings with near term optionality to unlock significant value through the eventual FDA approval of Re-Tain and continued growth of First Defense.
BSD Analysis:
ImmuCell is a small-cap animal health name where the core question is whether it can consistently deliver differentiated products with regulatory and manufacturing reliability. Animal health can be attractive because demand is tied to livestock economics and herd health management, not consumer gadgets. The upside is meaningful if the company has products that improve productivity or reduce disease costs for farmers—ROI sells in agriculture. The risk is that small-cap life sciences operations are vulnerable to manufacturing disruptions, regulatory delays, and lumpy order patterns. Investors should watch cash burn, product availability, and whether distribution partnerships are expanding rather than stalling. If execution stabilizes, the stock can surprise because expectations are often low for micro-cap bioscience names. This is a “prove it every quarter” story more than a narrative stock.
Pitch Summary:
ISSC was the largest contributor to our half-year performance. Record results for their fiscal second quarter released in May have propelled the stock significantly higher year to date. I believe the quarter proved what the company is capable of as they continue to expand their business through strategic acquisitions. Revenue increased 104%, gross margins improved sequentially to 51.4%, and most importantly Ebitda margins reached a...
Pitch Summary:
ISSC was the largest contributor to our half-year performance. Record results for their fiscal second quarter released in May have propelled the stock significantly higher year to date. I believe the quarter proved what the company is capable of as they continue to expand their business through strategic acquisitions. Revenue increased 104%, gross margins improved sequentially to 51.4%, and most importantly Ebitda margins reached a high of 35% showing the benefits of operating leverage. ISSC’s acquisition strategy has been successful to date and has a large runway for continued growth from their ability to bring products in house and fully manufacturing them at their facility in Pennsylvania to increase product margins and company operating leverage. This strategy has continued runway due to their recent facility expansion which has increased capacity by more than threefold. To further this acquisition strategy, the company just recently announced a new $100 million credit facility. Although I'm optimistic about the company's future, I've decided to take advantage of the momentum and volume in the stock to reduce our position significantly prior to the release of their fiscal third quarter results to add to our cash reserves. The current share price offers a smaller margin of safety compared to when shares traded near our average purchase price of $6.50 per share.
BSD Analysis:
ISSC is a niche aerospace electronics supplier, which means the investment outcome is mostly dictated by program wins, certification cycles, and production ramps. Once avionics or cockpit systems are designed into an aircraft platform, revenue can become long-lived and sticky, but the path to that stickiness is slow and lumpy. The upside comes from expanding content on existing platforms and winning new OEM or retrofit opportunities as fleets modernize. The downside is customer concentration and the reality that small suppliers get squeezed on pricing and lead times. Investors should focus on backlog quality, gross margin stability, and evidence of repeatable program wins. This is a micro-cap aerospace supplier—high torque when things go right, thin margin for error when they don’t. If execution stays clean, the market can rerate it from “tiny supplier” to “durable niche franchise.”
Pitch Summary:
AST SpaceMobile is developing a space-based cellular broadband network using a constellation of satellites that communicate directly with unmodified smartphones. The market opportunity spans military, first responders, remote areas, and underserved regions. AST has partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Google, Samsung, Vodafone, and others reaching over 3 billion people. They have 5 satellites in orbit and plan 60 more by Q1 2026. Manag...
Pitch Summary:
AST SpaceMobile is developing a space-based cellular broadband network using a constellation of satellites that communicate directly with unmodified smartphones. The market opportunity spans military, first responders, remote areas, and underserved regions. AST has partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Google, Samsung, Vodafone, and others reaching over 3 billion people. They have 5 satellites in orbit and plan 60 more by Q1 2026. Management projects breakeven by end of 2025 with 25 satellites. Competitive advantages include larger satellites enabling broadband, not just text like Starlink’s early offering. Defense and first responder use cases offer premium monetization. The company has ~$1.5B cash. AST offers high expected value despite execution and regulatory risk.
BSD Analysis:
ASTS represents a high-risk, high-reward infrastructure build with enormous optionality if direct-to-device connectivity achieves modest adoption. Partnerships with global carriers derisk distribution and monetization. Satellite size and bandwidth provide clear technical differentiation. Cash runway supports near-term deployment. Execution risks include launch cadence, regulatory approvals, and capex efficiency, but asymmetric upside exists.
Pitch Summary:
PAR primarily adds new customers through RFP processes, the duration and outcome of which are uncertain. A rollout slowdown at Burger King occurred because they are adopting an additional module, which is a positive signal. Burger King has several cross-sale opportunities. CEO Savneet Singh highlighted the strongest weighted pipeline ever. McDonald’s was referenced publicly as a pipeline opportunity. PAR is inflecting to profitabil...
Pitch Summary:
PAR primarily adds new customers through RFP processes, the duration and outcome of which are uncertain. A rollout slowdown at Burger King occurred because they are adopting an additional module, which is a positive signal. Burger King has several cross-sale opportunities. CEO Savneet Singh highlighted the strongest weighted pipeline ever. McDonald’s was referenced publicly as a pipeline opportunity. PAR is inflecting to profitability, and over the next 3 years it should be nearly double in size with far greater profitability.
BSD Analysis:
PAR Has Meaningful Multi-Year Growth Visibility Driven By Large Enterprise Rollouts And Cross-Sell Potential Across Major QSR Chains. Product Breadth, Including Table Service POS And Convenience-Store Modules, Expands TAM. Operating Leverage Is Improving As Recurring Software Mix Rises. Execution Risk Around RFP Timing Remains, But The Pipeline Strength And Improving Profitability Underpin A Compelling Medium-Term Thesis.
Pitch Summary:
KKR shares were down more than 8% in the first half of the year. Investor pessimism stemmed from tariff concerns and slower fundraising among endowments. However, endowments are less than 5% of KKR’s AUM. The long-term growth engines for KKR are continued share gains, product expansion, and widening distribution, including rapid growth in the high-net-worth channel. KKR has grown AUM by 18% per year and management fees by 25% per y...
Pitch Summary:
KKR shares were down more than 8% in the first half of the year. Investor pessimism stemmed from tariff concerns and slower fundraising among endowments. However, endowments are less than 5% of KKR’s AUM. The long-term growth engines for KKR are continued share gains, product expansion, and widening distribution, including rapid growth in the high-net-worth channel. KKR has grown AUM by 18% per year and management fees by 25% per year over the last 15 years. The company has a clear path to continued compounding.
BSD Analysis:
KKR benefits from secular tailwinds in private markets, with fundraising breadth and distribution expansion enabling continued fee growth even when institutional flows soften. High-net-worth channels materially expand TAM, and partnerships like Capital Group extend advisor reach. Strong historical AUM and fee-compounding demonstrate durable competitive advantages. Short-term fundraising concerns do not impair long-term earnings power. Tariff or endowment-related fears appear overstated.
Pitch Summary:
Cellebrite has been our worst performing holding YTD. Investors are concerned that uncertainty around US federal budgets will lead to delayed purchases. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $408M was up 23% year-over-year. There is management turnover, with a new CFO hired who previously sold his last company. Cellebrite’s SPAC sponsor has 1.5M shares vesting if the stock exceeds $30 by August 2026. The new CFO’s experience selling a ...
Pitch Summary:
Cellebrite has been our worst performing holding YTD. Investors are concerned that uncertainty around US federal budgets will lead to delayed purchases. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $408M was up 23% year-over-year. There is management turnover, with a new CFO hired who previously sold his last company. Cellebrite’s SPAC sponsor has 1.5M shares vesting if the stock exceeds $30 by August 2026. The new CFO’s experience selling a public company suggests a sale process may be likely. My expected value = $30 and timing = 2026.
BSD Analysis:
Cellebrite continues to produce strong ARR growth, indicating durable product demand despite budget timing noise. The managerial reshuffle appears strategically aligned with a potential sale, increasing the likelihood of a corporate transaction at a premium. High-margin software economics and mission-critical law enforcement workflows support valuation. SPAC-related incentives create additional pressure to maximize share price within a defined window. Regulatory/budget dependencies remain risks but upside skew is notable.
Pitch Summary:
LifeCore is a contract drug manufacturer which has recently added significant manufacturing capacity. They are operating at approximately 20% of their capacity with 15% EBITDA margins. Trump has repeated a desire to impose a 200% tariff on drugs made outside of the US. While our investment thesis is not based on the imposition of additional tariffs, if imposed, it would be a gift to the business development team at LifeCore, which ...
Pitch Summary:
LifeCore is a contract drug manufacturer which has recently added significant manufacturing capacity. They are operating at approximately 20% of their capacity with 15% EBITDA margins. Trump has repeated a desire to impose a 200% tariff on drugs made outside of the US. While our investment thesis is not based on the imposition of additional tariffs, if imposed, it would be a gift to the business development team at LifeCore, which has a ton of capacity to sell. At the company’s investor day in 2024, LifeCore management provided medium and long-term guidance indicating they could nearly quadruple EBITDA with no additional capital. Management may have been conservative given potentially higher pricing, and tariff-driven reshoring could magnify demand. The multiyear path to a multibagger remains intact.
BSD Analysis:
LifeCore has significant unutilized capacity, which drives enormous operating leverage once drug fills accelerate. Tariff-driven reshoring would amplify already-strong secular demand for U.S.-based sterile manufacturing. EBITDA expansion potential is substantial given low current utilization, with fixed-cost absorption driving margin uplift. Execution risk remains around customer onboarding, FDA approvals, and pricing assumptions, but risk/reward is attractive.
Pitch Summary:
Burford ended the quarter with a market capitalization of approximately $2.5B while having the rights to multiple $1B+ potential judgements including Sundance Resources, Sysco food price fixing claims, and most importantly the YPF Argentina case. The aggrieved YPF shareholders (and Burford through their litigation funding) have a judgement against Argentina totaling more than $16B of which Burford would be entitled to more than $6B...
Pitch Summary:
Burford ended the quarter with a market capitalization of approximately $2.5B while having the rights to multiple $1B+ potential judgements including Sundance Resources, Sysco food price fixing claims, and most importantly the YPF Argentina case. The aggrieved YPF shareholders (and Burford through their litigation funding) have a judgement against Argentina totaling more than $16B of which Burford would be entitled to more than $6B. On June 30th, a Federal Judge gave Argentina 2 weeks to place shares representing its 51% stake in YPF into an account at BNY Mellon in the U.S. as a partial settlement of the $16B judgement. Burford’s portion would be worth approximately $2.5B (the entire quarter ending market cap). Argentina has appealed this decision, as they are appealing the larger ruling. The YPF settlement accrues interest for Burford at over $300M per year. It is my expectation that the YPF case gets settled in 2026 for more than 50 cents on the dollar. The combination of current business + YPF proceeds + additional progress in other cases gets us somewhere between a double and triple of the share price.
BSD Analysis:
Burford’s exposure to YPF creates a uniquely asymmetric investment setup, with claim value exceeding the market cap even at discounted probabilities. Accrued interest materially increases intrinsic value over time. Core operations continue to scale, offering a recurring engine of litigation-funding returns independent of YPF. Risks include sovereign enforcement timelines and appeals, but even partial recovery materially re-rates the business. Litigation finance cyclicality is low, providing ballast while major cases mature.
Pitch Summary:
One example of what I believe is a high expected value with uncertain timing investment is Sable Offshore (SOC), which I first wrote about in the Q3 2024 letter. I think there is a > 90% chance of a +150% outcome in the next year which implies an expected value of +135% (assuming a complete loss in the 10% scenario which I think is extremely conservative). Sable is reopening an old oilfield in federal waters off the coast of Califo...
Pitch Summary:
One example of what I believe is a high expected value with uncertain timing investment is Sable Offshore (SOC), which I first wrote about in the Q3 2024 letter. I think there is a > 90% chance of a +150% outcome in the next year which implies an expected value of +135% (assuming a complete loss in the 10% scenario which I think is extremely conservative). Sable is reopening an old oilfield in federal waters off the coast of California that had been operated by Exxon for decades but was shut down after oil leaked from a pipeline on land. We know the oil is in the ground. Environmentalists have used the court system to delay the reopening of the pipeline. When the pipeline opens, I believe the stock should re-rate over time as the company reports production and revenue. I think the environmentalists are running out of Hail Mary’s and litigation should be resolved before the end of the year, but the timing is clearly uncertain. It could be August, or it could be 2026.
BSD Analysis:
SOC is a high-expected-value, binary-timing asset tethered to the resolution of litigation blocking pipeline reopening. The resource is proven, capex needs are modest, and operational leverage is extremely high once production resumes. Comparable offshore restart plays have historically re-rated rapidly once regulatory hurdles clear. Legal delays create volatility, but they do not change asset economics, and optionality is significant relative to the micro-cap valuation. Regulatory timing remains the key risk, but risk/reward is asymmetrically favorable.
Pitch Summary:
A holding in financial services firm Robinhood Markets – which was added to the benchmark index on the last day of Q2 – also meaningfully contributed. The company's shares advanced 121% for the three months. Robinhood has been excelling on all fronts recently, with strong customer growth, rising balance sizes and the successful launch of new products, particularly in the cryptocurrency space. The platform's value proposition is gai...
Pitch Summary:
A holding in financial services firm Robinhood Markets – which was added to the benchmark index on the last day of Q2 – also meaningfully contributed. The company's shares advanced 121% for the three months. Robinhood has been excelling on all fronts recently, with strong customer growth, rising balance sizes and the successful launch of new products, particularly in the cryptocurrency space. The platform's value proposition is gaining traction, especially among young investors, and is scaling at an impressive rate. We reduced the position to take some profits, but the stock was the fund's No. 7 overweight at quarter end.
BSD Analysis:
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Robinhood is the unapologetic digital predator of financial services, having successfully leveraged the meme-stock frenzy to build a powerful user acquisition engine that is now achieving sustained, explosive profitability. The investment thesis centers on the structural pivot from a cyclical brokerage to a diversified, high-margin financial ecosystem, evidenced by 11 business lines now generating $100M+ in annualized revenue, including the acquisition of Bitstamp. The accelerated adoption of Robinhood Gold is the critical monetization key, turning low-value users into high-margin subscription and net interest income streams. Furthermore, the rapid growth in Prediction Markets is a calculated, high-velocity play to capture the massive wallet share of the internet generation.