Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
CTT is our largest position after the stock rose today. Fortunately for us, they are also performing fantastically. Earlier this year, we described why we are so excited about CTT: CTT Analysis Fortunately, most of the case plays out exactly as we expected: In the second quarter, revenue grew by 11% organically and EBIT by 28% organically. Including Cacesa, which was consolidated for 2 months in Q2, revenue grew by 18% and EBIT by 47%. And the earnings growth comes from the most important segment, E&P. Here, they grew 14% organically and EBIT 29% organically, while the growth including 2 months of Cacesa was 34% and 73%. And after a weak April, growth has accelerated again and management expects 15% volume growth (+20% organic revenue growth) for the rest of 2025. CTT has also become significantly better at generating cash. Operational cash flow increased by 74% in H1 and free cash flow by 202%. With high organic growth and full consolidation of Cacesa, we expect a strong end to the year. They also expect to close their JV with DHL at the end of the year, which will pave the way for strong results in 2026 as well. In addition, there are still possible strategic optionality's in the business, such as a sale of their bank, their real estate portfolio or several attractive acquisitions. We wrote in our analysis back in January that we believed the fair value in 2027 would be approximately EUR 20. We still believe that is realistic. Although the share has since increased from EUR 5.7 to EUR 7.8, this is still an upside of 156% over the next 2.5 years. Therefore, CTT is today our largest position.

BSD Analysis:
Symmetry maintains a strong bullish stance on CTT Portugal, positioning it as their largest holding based on exceptional operational performance. The company delivered impressive Q2 results with 11% organic revenue growth and 28% organic EBIT growth, accelerating to 18% and 47% respectively when including the Cacesa acquisition. The critical Express & Parcels segment showed particularly strong momentum with 14% organic growth and 29% EBIT expansion. Management's guidance for 15% volume growth and 20% organic revenue growth for the remainder of 2025 reinforces the positive trajectory. Cash generation has improved dramatically with operational cash flow up 74% and free cash flow surging 202% in H1. The pending DHL joint venture closure and potential strategic options including bank divestiture, real estate monetization, and accretive acquisitions provide additional upside catalysts. Despite the stock's appreciation from EUR 5.7 to EUR 7.8, Symmetry maintains their EUR 20 fair value target for 2027, implying 156% upside potential over 2.5 years.

Pitch Summary:
Our hero of the day, China YuHua Education Group, was hit right across the nose, with their extensive K-9 offering. Overnight, YuHua Edu seized being profitable and it would continue to lose -95% of it's share value in the next three years. ... After its transformation, China YuHua Education has become a company with a limited private formal high school education segment (grade 10 to 12) (<5% of revenue), and a substantial university and vocational college education segment (vocational education: schooling aimed at specific occupations such as skilled trades, software developer, accountancy, etc.), operating nine schools in mainland China. ... After borrowing overseas, YuHua faced an issue unique to Chinese companies: while having enough cash on hand within China, it was not able to get this money out of China to pay back bond owners. ... By threatening bankruptcy proceedings under Chinese law, YuHua was able to force a debt-for-equity swap valuing stocks over 100% above the price it was trading at. ... Currently trading at 5x earnings, this multiple is set to compress to just 2.5 on projected 2025 earnings - reflecting exceptional value potential. With the debt swap behind us, debt levels have also become very manageable. ... China YuHua Education's stock is down over -90% since the 'Double Reduction' act, all the while remaining profitable and with profits set to return to pre-2022 levels. Clearly there is an extreme fear for the sector. The complete nationalization of the sector seems all but priced in, leaving extraordinary upside for those who dare to bet on any other outcome.

BSD Analysis:
China YuHua Education is a deep-value, post-regulatory clean-up play whose stock is an asymmetric recovery bet on its successful strategic pivot to the high-margin vocational training sector. The core thesis is driven by the fact that its recent financial rebound, with full-year profit soaring 133%, is a result of margin expansion and a successful acquisition strategy that is structurally improving earnings power. The company’s focus on vocational training and degree programs aligns perfectly with Chinese government policy and market demand. Trading at a deeply discounted 0.2x Price/Book despite a strong financial cleanup, the stock is a conviction bet on the long-term, structural need for post-secondary and vocational education in China.

Pitch Summary:
In May, I joined a group of value investors in attending Nelnet's (NYSE: NNI) annual meeting in Lincoln, Nebraska. I left even more bullish than I was before. Nelnet is aggressively rolling out AI across its business units. Here is some of what I wrote after I visited the company: Nelnet is seeing breakthroughs in efficiency and throughput across the organization. For example, when dealing with thousands of templates for responding to student loan servicing inquiries, a new AI tool can narrow the choices down to three for the employee, rather than requiring them to sift through thousands manually. Another example involves quality assurance. Previously, human employees listened to calls and provided feedback. Now, AI can perform this task in real time, offering feedback and suggestions instantly to the servicing agent. AI is also handling a significant volume of customer requests before human intervention is even needed. These developments are fundamentally transforming Nelnet's servicing operations, resulting in dramatic improvements in efficiency and productivity. AI may also unlock new revenue opportunities and support growth across Nelnet's diverse business lines. While companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are often seen as the core AI plays, what if Nelnet—and many others—are also major AI beneficiaries? Why is this important? Management pointed out that the Biden administration allowed $1.2 trillion in student loans to be paused from repayment. That's 'T' as in Trillion. A few weeks ago, the Trump administration began notifying borrowers that repayments must resume. Nelnet, as one of the few loan servicers—and the largest, with the best reputation—is likely to service many of these loans. This will involve helping borrowers enter repayment plans and working to collect a significant portion of the $1.2 trillion. So, just as Nelnet is facing a potential surge in servicing demand, it's experiencing significant gains in productivity and efficiency. This means it can now service loans more effectively, more quickly, and potentially at a lower cost. That's a recipe for meaningful profit growth. We remain very bullish on the near-term and long-term potential of Nelnet.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents Nelnet as an underappreciated AI beneficiary positioned for significant growth as student loan repayments resume. Following an annual meeting visit, the manager became increasingly bullish on Nelnet's aggressive AI implementation across business units, which is driving dramatic efficiency and productivity improvements. Specific AI applications include automated template selection for loan servicing inquiries, real-time quality assurance feedback, and autonomous customer request handling, fundamentally transforming operations. The investment thesis centers on perfect timing: as $1.2 trillion in paused student loans resume repayment under the Trump administration, Nelnet—the largest and most reputable servicer—will likely capture significant market share. The convergence of surging servicing demand with AI-driven productivity gains creates a powerful profit growth catalyst, enabling faster, more effective, and lower-cost loan servicing. Unlike traditional AI plays such as Nvidia and Microsoft, Nelnet represents an overlooked AI implementation story with direct operational benefits. The manager views this as a recipe for meaningful profit growth in both near-term and long-term horizons, maintaining a very bullish stance on the company's prospects.

Pitch Summary:
On the other end of the immigration issue lies Glass House (OTC: GLASF). In a headline-grabbing event on July 10, ICE raided two Glass House facilities. Hundreds of individuals were arrested, and tragically, one worker died in an accidental fall. ICE also alleged the presence of underage undocumented workers. While teenagers can legally work in agriculture under federal law, California law prohibits anyone under 21 from being on-site at a cannabis cultivation facility. Having toured Glass House dozens of times, I've never seen anyone who looked underage. I'm still in shock. Right now, I'm left with more questions than answers. The media—Left and Right—have turned Glass House into a political punching bag, further clouding the situation. Just a month earlier, on June 17, Glass House contacted preferred equity holders (including Mindset) with an offer: convert our preferred equity into a new, lower-interest convertible or redeem for cash. Given our strategy to refocus the Mindset Value Fund on small-cap value—and our other fund's need for liquidity—we opted for cash. Our view was that we'd rather own common stock than hold an illiquid preferred. We've now received our cash, but we haven't reinvested in the common stock. In fact, we've reduced our Glass House exposure across our funds. Why? Because my job is to assess risk—and I don't know what I don't know. Cannabis investing is already complex, and I can't currently quantify the risk of further federal or state action. For now, we're watching, waiting, and hoping this blows over so we can be buyers again.

BSD Analysis:
The manager adopts a cautious stance on Glass House following significant regulatory and operational disruptions that have created substantial uncertainty. The July 10 ICE raids resulted in hundreds of arrests, one worker fatality, and allegations of underage undocumented workers, creating a complex legal and regulatory situation. Despite the manager's extensive facility tours and surprise at the allegations, the incident has transformed Glass House into a political target across media outlets. The manager recently converted preferred equity holdings to cash rather than reinvesting in common stock, citing the need to quantify unquantifiable risks in an already complex cannabis investment landscape. The decision to reduce exposure across all funds reflects a risk management approach when facing potential federal or state enforcement actions. While the manager expresses hope that the situation will resolve favorably, the current stance is to wait and watch rather than actively invest. The cannabis sector's inherent complexity is compounded by regulatory uncertainty, making position sizing and risk assessment particularly challenging in the current environment.

Pitch Summary:
Now, imagine our surprise when, in May, HQI publicly expressed interest in acquiring a larger and inefficiently run vertically integrated staffing company called TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI). Apparently, TrueBlue has been ignoring HQI's overtures for two years. With TBI's share price falling and earnings weakening, we believe HQI may soon succeed in taking control. And if they take control, they can run the same playbook that HQI ran with Command Center and sell off all of TBI's branches as franchises and turn TBI into a cash cow. Our estimates suggest the combined company could generate $40–$50 million in annual EBITDA. Given the minimal capex requirements, much of that EBITDA could translate into free cash flow and thus the combined entity could be worth upwards of $1 billion. We've re-established our position in HQI and have also initiated a position in TrueBlue. If a deal gains momentum, we may increase our stake further.

BSD Analysis:
The manager views TrueBlue as an acquisition target play, betting on HireQuest's ability to execute a transformative takeover similar to their successful Command Center acquisition. TrueBlue is characterized as an inefficiently run, vertically integrated staffing company that has been ignoring HQI's acquisition overtures for two years. The investment thesis relies on TBI's weakening fundamentals—falling share price and deteriorating earnings—making it more susceptible to a takeover. The value creation opportunity lies in HQI's proven ability to convert vertically integrated staffing operations into franchise models, potentially turning TBI into a 'cash cow' through branch sales. The manager estimates the combined entity could generate $40-50 million in annual EBITDA with minimal capital requirements, suggesting a potential valuation exceeding $1 billion. This represents a merger arbitrage opportunity with significant upside if the acquisition materializes. The manager has initiated a position and may increase the stake if deal momentum builds, viewing this as a misunderstood situation with asymmetric risk-reward.

Pitch Summary:
HireQuest (NASDAQ: HQI) is a company we know well. We believe its franchise staffing model is a superior approach within the staffing industry. We originally invested at $7 per share in 2020 and rode it up to $25 on optimism that HQI could roll up the fragmented, vertically integrated staffing sector into its more efficient franchise model. In hindsight, however, we underestimated the impact of three powerful headwinds that ultimately dragged the stock back down to earth: 1. Immigration Pressure: We didn't anticipate the impact of a relatively open U.S. border. An influx of 8 to 10 million undocumented immigrants increased labor supply in the very sectors HQI served, undermining its legal staffing business. 2. Interest Rate Spike: Rising rates in 2022 caused unexpected friction between HQI corporate and its franchisees over workers' comp expenses. This dynamic dragged on earnings for 10 consecutive quarters. 3. Poorly Timed Acquisition: HQI acquired a tech staffing firm just before widespread layoffs hit the technology sector. These events hurt HQI's results and prompted us to reevaluate and exit our position. But we've always admired the franchise model—it generates strong cash flow, boasts high margins, and delivers excellent returns on capital. We also continue to believe CEO Rick Hermanns is a fantastic (though not infallible) operator. So, we kept watching. Over the past few quarters, several positive developments caught our attention: The workers' comp drag is unwinding. The tech acquisition, though poorly timed, was paid in cash and is now profitable. And with immigration policy tightening under the Trump administration—ICE's budget is expected to triple—we're seeing early signs of employers verifying legal status more rigorously, which benefits HQI's business. More importantly, HQI made news that caused us to revisit the original bullish thesis: how HQI went public. HQI went public by buying a poorly run, vertically integrated staffing firm called Command Center. After the acquisition, HQI flipped Command's branches into franchises—ultimately selling those branches for more than the total acquisition cost. Remarkably, HQI—then the smaller company—got paid to take over its larger rival. Now, imagine our surprise when, in May, HQI publicly expressed interest in acquiring a larger and inefficiently run vertically integrated staffing company called TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI). Apparently, TrueBlue has been ignoring HQI's overtures for two years. With TBI's share price falling and earnings weakening, we believe HQI may soon succeed in taking control. And if they take control, they can run the same playbook that HQI ran with Command Center and sell off all of TBI's branches as franchises and turn TBI into a cash cow. Our estimates suggest the combined company could generate $40–$50 million in annual EBITDA. Given the minimal capex requirements, much of that EBITDA could translate into free cash flow and thus the combined entity could be worth upwards of $1 billion. We've re-established our position in HQI and have also initiated a position in TrueBlue. If a deal gains momentum, we may increase our stake further. We believe few investors truly understand the Command Center playbook—and if they did, HQI would be trading significantly higher.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling turnaround thesis for HireQuest, emphasizing the superior economics of its franchise staffing model versus traditional vertically integrated competitors. The investment case centers on HQI's proven ability to acquire inefficient staffing companies and convert their branches to franchises, as demonstrated with the Command Center acquisition where they recovered more than the purchase price through franchise sales. Three previous headwinds—immigration pressure, rising interest rates affecting workers' comp costs, and a poorly-timed tech acquisition—are now reversing, with workers' comp issues unwinding and immigration enforcement tightening under new administration policies. The potential TrueBlue acquisition represents a significant catalyst, with management estimates suggesting the combined entity could generate $40-50 million in EBITDA and be worth over $1 billion. The franchise model's inherent advantages include strong cash flow generation, high margins, excellent returns on capital, and minimal capex requirements. The manager has re-established positions in both HQI and TrueBlue, viewing the market's lack of understanding of the 'Command Center playbook' as a key opportunity. CEO Rick Hermanns is viewed as a capable operator despite past missteps.

Pitch Summary:
Our third-largest contributor to returns in the quarter came from Nippon Antenna (6930.T). At a $49 million market capitalization, Nippon Antenna builds antennas used for television reception, internet, and communication devices. They also make antennas and parts for things like mobile phones, marine (boat) communication, and even some security equipment. In addition, they make other equipment that helps get TV signals, connect to cable or satellite TV, and support wireless communication. They have a small service revenue segment that includes the installation and engineering of communication systems, including projects for cable TV and other networks. This holding presents a bit of personal satisfaction, in that it's what I like to call "double-dipping". We originally bought this stock in 2018, sold our entire holdings in 2019 for a healthy profit, and bought the stock again at the end of last year at depressed levels. We bought shares in Nippon Antenna in December of last year, at an average cost of ¥541 per share, following disappointing results in 2024 when the company posted a net loss of $20 million (USD). However, in their September reporting period that was disseminated in November, the company was showing better operational efficiency, and ongoing losses had been reduced substantially. The balance sheet was overcapitalized with $48 million (USD) in cash and deposits. If the company could turn things around, the stock should do well, and the downside is well protected, in my opinion. In the latest fiscal year ending March 2025, Nippon Antenna reported a net profit of $25 million (USD), a sharp turnaround from the previous year, due to better cost controls and a significant reduction in their cost of goods sold. The stock currently trades around ¥784 per share.

BSD Analysis:
The manager executed a successful turnaround investment in Nippon Antenna, demonstrating his "double-dipping" strategy by repurchasing a previously profitable holding at depressed levels. The investment thesis centered on the company's operational efficiency improvements and substantial cash position of $48 million against a $49 million market cap, providing significant downside protection. Despite a $20 million net loss in 2024, the manager identified improving trends in the September reporting period with reduced losses and better cost controls. The investment proved prescient as Nippon Antenna achieved a dramatic turnaround to $25 million net profit in fiscal 2025 through improved cost of goods sold management. At an average cost of ¥541 per share versus current levels around ¥784, the position generated approximately 45% gains while contributing meaningfully to quarterly returns. The company's diversified antenna business spanning television, mobile communications, marine equipment, and security systems provides multiple revenue streams. This represents a classic value investment where patient capital was rewarded through operational improvements and balance sheet strength.

Pitch Summary:
Yutaka Giken Co. Ltd. (7229.T) was the second largest contributor to returns in the quarter, adding 1.5% to total contribution. Yutaka Giken is a Japanese company that makes car and motorcycle parts for big car companies, particularly Honda and Suzuki, as well as other vehicle makers both in Japan and internationally. They manufacture key components used in cars and motorcycles, including parts that help cars shift gears smoothly (torque converters and other drive system parts), parts that reduce pollution from engines (catalytic converters and exhaust systems), and brake discs for motorcycles, among other general car and machine parts. At $264 million (USD), Yutaka Giken's market capitalization is on the higher end of purchases made in the fund. This is not an indication of anything; however, all else being equal, I would choose a company with a higher market cap versus a smaller market cap. With that said, I typically find more compelling opportunities in companies that trade below $100 million (USD) market capitalization. We made our first purchase in the stock in September of last year, as the company was trading below liquidation value and was showing strong fundamental momentum in its operations. This combination of factors, a cheap stock price with improving operations, is something I am consistently on the lookout for. We added to our position in October and again in January as its financial results continued to be strong. Earlier this month, we exited our entire position at an average sale price of ¥2,589 per share – a material gain over our average cost of approximately ¥1,940 per share. The sale was completed to free up capital to pursue what I perceive to be better opportunities.

BSD Analysis:
The manager successfully executed a value investment in Yutaka Giken, an automotive parts supplier to major Japanese manufacturers Honda and Suzuki. The investment was initiated when the company traded below liquidation value while demonstrating strong operational momentum, representing the manager's preferred combination of cheap valuation and improving fundamentals. The position was built through multiple purchases from September through January as financial results continued strengthening. The complete exit at ¥2,589 per share versus an average cost of ¥1,940 generated approximately 33% gains and contributed 1.5% to portfolio returns. Despite the company's larger $264 million market cap being outside the manager's typical sub-$100 million preference, the compelling value opportunity justified the investment. The sale was strategically timed to redeploy capital into perceived better opportunities, demonstrating the fund's active turnover strategy. Yutaka Giken's exposure to key automotive components like torque converters and catalytic converters provides steady demand from established OEM relationships.

Pitch Summary:
Impress Holdings Inc. (9479.T) was the largest positive contributor to returns in the quarter, providing a 1.8% total return contribution. With a market capitalization of $41 million (USD), Impress Holdings is a Japanese company that makes and sells magazines, books, e-books, and websites for specialty interest groups: technology (like computers and IT), music, design, and activities in nature. Impress Holdings helps people stay up-to-date and learn about technology, music, design, and the outdoors by publishing magazines and digital content. Their main customers are hobbyists, professionals, and related businesses interested in these niche topics. For example, they are the publishing company behind Digital Camera Magazine and books like the "Dekiru" series of computer tutorials, which have sold over 80 million copies. We bought shares in the company towards the end of last year as net income had turned negative, but the operations of the company were showing signs of improving efficiency – something I am keen on – and the company was trading below liquidation value. In addition, the company's founder, Keiichiro Tsukamoto had a controlling interest in the company through a combination of his personal interests and via a holding company of which he is a director. This is of interest to me as more companies in Japan are going private. In 2024, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) recorded 94 delistings—the highest number since 2013 and the first ever decrease in the total number of listed companies. The figure for 2025 is currently on pace to exceed last year's record. This surge is driven, in my opinion, by the pressure from the Tokyo Stock Exchange to improve capital efficiency and shareholder returns, which we discussed during our annual meeting. In May, the investor group, comprised of YKT & Co. and Keiichiro Tsukamoto, announced plans to acquire the remaining 43% stake, which it did not already own, in Impress Holdings for ¥210 per share. On July 28th, Impress Holdings will be delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The gain is material from our average purchase price of ¥144 per share; however, I should note that, at ¥210 per share, the offer is not generous to shareholders, and the company should have gone private at a higher buyout price.

BSD Analysis:
The manager executed a successful value play on Impress Holdings, purchasing shares below liquidation value when the company showed operational efficiency improvements despite negative net income. The investment thesis centered on the controlling interest held by founder Keiichiro Tsukamoto and the broader trend of Japanese companies going private under TSE pressure to improve capital efficiency. The position generated a 1.8% portfolio contribution through a management buyout at ¥210 per share versus an average cost of ¥144, representing approximately 46% gains. While the manager acknowledges the buyout price wasn't generous to shareholders, the investment capitalized on the structural shift in Japanese markets toward privatization. The company's niche publishing focus on technology, music, and design content, including successful franchises like Digital Camera Magazine and the "Dekiru" tutorial series, provided a stable business foundation. This represents a classic deep value opportunity where operational improvements combined with corporate action catalysts drove meaningful returns.

Pitch Summary:
MarineMax (HZO): HZO faced pressure this quarter as retail boat sales continue to normalize post-COVID, compounded by higher interest rates. That said, the company is quietly transforming its business model by increasing its mix of service, storage, and marina operations—higher-margin, recurring revenue streams that improve business quality and reduce cyclicality. The market seems focused on the next quarter. We're focused on the next few years. We added slightly to our position at what we believe are attractive long-term prices.

BSD Analysis:
The manager acknowledges near-term headwinds from normalizing boat sales and higher interest rates but maintains a bullish long-term view based on business model transformation. HZO is strategically shifting toward higher-margin, recurring revenue streams through service, storage, and marina operations, which should improve business quality and reduce cyclical volatility. This transition represents a fundamental improvement in the company's earnings profile and competitive positioning. The manager's contrarian approach focuses on long-term value creation while the market fixates on short-term cyclical pressures. Recent position additions at current prices suggest confidence in the transformation thesis. The recurring revenue streams should provide more stable cash flows and higher returns on invested capital over time.

Pitch Summary:
Vox Royalty Corp. (VOXR): Vox continues to build value through disciplined royalty acquisitions and cash-flowing assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions. This quarter brought updates on multiple key projects advancing toward production. With more than 60 royalties, several near-term catalysts, and a capital-light model, Vox is well-positioned to grow free cash flow without the dilution or capex risk that plagues traditional miners. We continue to believe the market underappreciates the earnings power and embedded optionality in the portfolio.

BSD Analysis:
The manager maintains a bullish stance on VOXR based on its capital-light royalty business model that avoids the operational risks of traditional mining. The company's portfolio of 60+ royalties provides diversification across multiple projects and jurisdictions, with several advancing toward production phases. The investment thesis emphasizes Vox's ability to generate free cash flow growth without the capital expenditure requirements or dilution risks that burden mining operators. Near-term production catalysts across the portfolio should drive earnings growth. The manager believes the market fails to properly value the embedded optionality and earnings power within the royalty portfolio. Tier 1 jurisdictions provide regulatory stability and operational predictability for the underlying assets.

Pitch Summary:
RCI Hospitality. (RICK): RICK is the only publicly traded owner of adult nightclubs in the US. Currently they own 57 clubs across 13 states and an additional 12 sports-bar restaurants with the "Bombshells" concept. With few municipalities issuing new adult entertainment licenses these businesses function as local monopolies with excellent unit economics. These clubs have limited potential buyers with RICK establishing themselves as the buyer of choice for any club owners looking to sell. This provides a long runway for growth. RICK continues to do what it does best—generate cash, reinvest it intelligently, and grow shareholder value. They remain the dominant consolidator in the gentlemen's club industry, a space with over 500 targets that meet their acquisition criteria and very little real competition. The most recent quarter showed steady operating results and strong free cash flow. The stock remains undervalued relative to normalized earnings power, especially given the capital allocation discipline this management team has shown.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling bull case for RICK based on its unique market position as the only publicly traded adult nightclub operator. The investment thesis centers on regulatory moats, with limited new licensing creating local monopolies with strong unit economics. RICK's consolidation strategy appears well-positioned given 500+ acquisition targets and minimal competition for club purchases. The company's dual revenue streams from adult entertainment venues and Bombshells sports bars provide some diversification. Management's disciplined capital allocation and consistent free cash flow generation support the valuation argument. The regulatory barriers to entry and fragmented industry structure create a sustainable competitive advantage. Recent quarterly results showing steady operations and strong cash generation validate the business model's resilience.

Pitch Summary:
Johns Lyng Group (ASX: JLG) has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Sherwood BidCo Pty Ltd, managed by Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) during the month. PEP to acquire 100% of JLG shares at $4.00 per share with the Scheme valuing JLG's equity at approximately $1.1 billion. JLG is a classic Tamim playbook stock pick. As can be seen from the chart below, JLG over the last few years traded at elevated levels we struggled to see value. We followed the story closely like most stocks - but could not justify what was a very popular stock with fundies yet carried a highly expensive multiple. Over the last year or so, the company disappointed the market with multiple downgrades as its building restoration business was cycling a strong prior years performance but lower industry activity in the short term. This all culminated in a disappointing February 2025 results which saw the stock reach its lows of $2.00. Having followed the story closely and seeing management acquire material amount of shares on market, we took the opportunity to meet the company and initiated a position at $2.20. JLG ticks the boxes of what we look for in a business: founder led and majority holder, industry leader, solid balance sheet, positive outlook as industry conditions improved, and finally an undemanding valuation. In June/July we were pleased that the company agreed to a takeover in what was a material premium of $4.00 vs our $2.20 entry price.

BSD Analysis:
TAMIM's Johns Lyng Group investment exemplifies their disciplined value approach and contrarian timing in cyclical businesses. The manager demonstrated patience by tracking JLG for years while it traded at elevated multiples, waiting for the right entry opportunity. When the building restoration company faced multiple downgrades due to cycling strong prior performance and lower industry activity, culminating in disappointing February 2025 results that drove the stock to $2.00 lows, TAMIM recognized the dislocation. The investment decision was reinforced by management's material on-market share purchases, signaling insider confidence. TAMIM's investment criteria were satisfied: founder-led with majority ownership, industry leadership position, solid balance sheet, improving industry outlook, and attractive valuation. The $2.20 entry price proved exceptionally well-timed as Pacific Equity Partners announced a $4.00 per share takeover offer, delivering an 82% return. This successful outcome validates TAMIM's approach of following quality companies through cycles and capitalizing on temporary market pessimism when fundamentals remain intact.

Pitch Summary:
Humm group limited (ASX: HUM) during the month has received a non-binding indicative offer from The Abercrombie Group Pty Ltd (TAG) to acquire all ordinary shares not held by TAG and its associates for $0.58 per share. TAG and its associates currently hold 26.6% of hummgroup shares. The offer is subject to due diligence and a mutually agreed scheme implementation deed, whilst TAG has 4 weeks to conduct due diligence. We initiated a position in HUM at 45 cents earlier in the month and were positively surprised to see the takeover offer emerge only days after our acquisition of shares. We believe that the offer undervalues the company but we are also cognisant to the fact that the bidder is the largest holder. The makes a competing offer highly unlikely and we believe a 10-20% bump in the offer price should get the board and most shareholders over the line.

BSD Analysis:
TAMIM's investment in Humm Group demonstrates opportunistic timing and takeover arbitrage potential in the consumer finance sector. The manager initiated a position at 45 cents just days before The Abercrombie Group announced a non-binding indicative offer at $0.58 per share, representing an immediate 29% gain. While TAMIM believes the current offer undervalues the company, they acknowledge the strategic challenge posed by TAG's 26.6% existing stake, which significantly reduces the likelihood of competing bids. The investment thesis relies on the expectation that a 10-20% increase in the offer price will be sufficient to secure board recommendation and shareholder approval. This represents a potential total return of 42-55% from the 45-cent entry price if a revised offer materializes in the $0.64-$0.70 range. The position reflects TAMIM's expertise in identifying undervalued situations ahead of corporate activity, though the outcome depends heavily on the controlling shareholder's willingness to increase their bid to secure the remaining shares.

Pitch Summary:
Enero Group Limited (ASX: EGG) sold its 51% stake in OBMedia to minority shareholders for a nominal amount, incurring a non-cash loss of A$14–16 million. The divestment aligns with Enero's strategy to focus on its high-performing agencies—Hotwire Global, BMF, and Orchard —to drive growth and value. Enero expects FY25 EBITDA at the upper end of its guidance ($22–26 million underlying, $18–20 million economic interest), fueled by new Australian client wins, strong cost control, and operational excellence. We believe the core business will generate $12-$14m of Ebitda in FY26. The company has in excess of $30m of net cash versus a market cap of $90m. With the OBmedia business divested - the potential poison pill to a takeover has been removed. We expect the company to be acquired at some point or for the stock to re rate towards our $1.50+ valuation as capital management initiatives are announced.

BSD Analysis:
TAMIM's bull thesis on Enero Group centers on strategic portfolio optimization and attractive takeover potential following asset divestiture. The sale of the underperforming OBMedia stake for a nominal amount, while resulting in a non-cash loss of $14-16 million, strategically removes what the manager describes as a "poison pill" to potential acquirers. The company's focus on high-performing agencies Hotwire Global, BMF, and Orchard positions it for improved operational efficiency and growth. With FY25 EBITDA expected at the upper end of guidance and projected FY26 core business EBITDA of $12-14 million, the fundamentals appear solid. The investment case is particularly compelling given the balance sheet strength with over $30 million net cash against a $90 million market cap. TAMIM assigns a $1.50+ price target, expecting either a takeover bid or significant re-rating as management announces capital management initiatives. The combination of strategic focus, strong cash position, and removal of acquisition barriers creates multiple paths to value realization.

Pitch Summary:
Austco Healthcare Limited (ASX: AHC) has provided a trading update and guidance upgrade for FY25. Highlights include: Revenue: $80-$82 million, up 37%-41% from FY24 EBITDA: $12.5-$13.5 million, up 54%-67% from FY24 Cash at bank: $14.4 million, up 6% from FY24 Unfilled contracted revenue: $55.8 million Amentco acquisition outperformed expectations, leading to an additional $2.5 million earn-out expense G&S Technologies acquisition completed on 30 May 2025, funded through operating cash flows AHC unfilled order book closed the year at $50m with a strong pipeline of opportunities. We anticipate FY26 Ebitda of at least $16m and an EPS of 2.8-3 cents. The stock has reached an inflection point of a market cap above $100m and an undemanding multiple - which should attract more eyeballs to the stock and potential investors to the register.

BSD Analysis:
TAMIM presents a compelling bull case for Austco Healthcare based on strong operational momentum and attractive valuation metrics. The company delivered impressive FY25 guidance upgrades with revenue growth of 37-41% and EBITDA expansion of 54-67%, demonstrating robust execution. The successful integration of the Amentco acquisition, which outperformed expectations, and the completion of the G&S Technologies acquisition using operating cash flows highlight management's effective capital allocation strategy. With an unfilled order book of $50 million and strong pipeline visibility, the manager projects FY26 EBITDA of at least $16 million and EPS of 2.8-3 cents. The investment thesis centers on AHC reaching an inflection point with a market cap above $100 million trading at an undemanding multiple. TAMIM believes this combination of scale and attractive valuation should drive increased institutional interest and potential re-rating. The healthcare technology provider appears well-positioned for continued growth with strong cash generation and acquisition integration capabilities.

Pitch Summary:
One company we have identified with both a strong track record and a clear path to future value creation is Hubbell. Hubbell manufactures equipment for the transmission and distribution of electricity across the US grid. The company has grown its revenues at 5-6% compound over the last 5, 10 and 20 years and has a tangible return on invested capital of just under 50%. We can see both characteristics sustaining into the future. Hubbell's market share (estimated at 20% and twice the size of the nearest competitor) is stable and steadily growing, reflecting its position as the leading supplier of essential parts. From cable connectors to lightning arrestors and insulators, these essential pieces of equipment cost on average $50, but damages can easily run into the tens of millions if they fail. Founded in 1888, Hubbell's reputation for reliability, coupled with unrivalled breadth of product offering and the long life of its products, make customer relationships incredibly sticky. Strong pricing power comes from the strength of the brand, the mission critical nature of the products and the fact that they tend to constitute only ~5% of above-ground power line costs. Competitive advantage counts for little if your end-market is shrinking. Fortunately for Hubbell, the runway for grid investment is long. Just accounting for the ongoing maintenance required to keep the grid running, we expect the company should grow its sales at a mid-single digit rate. Going forward, there will be greater demands on top of this, ranging from data centre usage to electric vehicles and the need to harden the grid against climate change. The International Energy Agency estimates that the global grid needs to expand 2-3x to support growth in demand, with electricity moving from 20% of global energy consumption today to 50% by 2050. The company does not give guidance beyond the current financial year, but we suspect that the rate and durability of its returns are underappreciated. We bought a holding for the mandate at 20x earnings in May.

BSD Analysis:
Troy Asset Management presents a compelling bull case for Hubbell, emphasizing the company's exceptional financial metrics and structural growth drivers. The fund highlights Hubbell's impressive 50% tangible return on invested capital and consistent 5-6% revenue growth across multiple time horizons, demonstrating operational excellence. The investment thesis centers on Hubbell's dominant market position (20% market share, twice the nearest competitor) in mission-critical electrical grid infrastructure, where product failure costs can reach tens of millions despite individual components averaging only $50. This creates substantial pricing power and customer stickiness. The managers identify a multi-decade growth runway driven by grid modernization needs, with the International Energy Agency projecting 2-3x grid expansion requirements and electricity consumption rising from 20% to 50% of global energy by 2050. Additional demand catalysts include data center proliferation, electric vehicle adoption, and climate resilience investments. Troy purchased the position at 20x earnings in May, suggesting they view current valuations as attractive relative to the company's growth prospects and competitive moat. The fund believes Hubbell's return durability is underappreciated by the market.

Pitch Summary:
Caesars Entertainment ($CZR) is positioned as a compelling value opportunity driven by the potential spin-off of its fast-growing digital business. Caesars Digital is growing revenues north of 20%, with 2025 EBITDA estimated at $300–350m and a clear path to $500m+ in 2026 as sports betting and iGaming adoption expands across additional U.S. states. At a 10–12× EBITDA multiple, the digital unit alone could be worth $5–6bn, implying $24–29 per share of value. Credit documentation appears to allow the digital business to be moved into an unrestricted subsidiary, enabling a tax-efficient spin, potentially with modest leverage to accelerate debt paydown at the core business. The pitch argues that ongoing Las Vegas weakness obscures this embedded value. With buybacks and a potential spin in 2H 2026, upside to $50+ per share is viewed as achievable.

BSD Analysis:
The U.S. gaming industry is bifurcating between capital-intensive, cyclical physical assets and asset-light, structurally growing digital platforms. Caesars’ digital segment has reached sufficient scale and profitability to warrant standalone valuation, benefiting from secular legalization tailwinds and strong brand leverage from the physical network. Strategically, separation would clarify capital allocation, reduce conglomerate discount, and accelerate deleveraging—key constraints on equity valuation today. The primary risk is regulatory pacing and competitive intensity in digital, where promotional discipline will determine margin durability. Execution risk also remains around timing, leverage transfer, and tax structuring of a spin. However, the current stock price appears to value the digital option at a steep discount while assigning little credit to normalized cash flow from the core business. If management delivers on buybacks and crystallizes digital value, multiple expansion could be material. In that scenario, CZR transitions from a levered recovery story to a sum-of-the-parts rerating driven by structural growth.

Actual Post Content:
The potential spin of $CZR's digital business is making $CZR look compelling. The digital business is growing revenues over 20% with EBITDA likely in the $300-$350mm range in 2025 with a line of sight to $500mm+ in 2026. Given the tailwinds in sports betting and iGaming with new states likely to approve over the coming years (especially in iGaming where only 7 states have approved), this business could easily trade 10-12x EBITDA and be worth $5-$6B or $24-$29 per $CZR share. The credit agreements and indentures seem to allow for this spin by permitting the digital business to be moved into an unrestricted subsidiary, so they could spin this to shareholders without any debt on it and then you would be getting the bricks & mortar business for free. Now I would expect some debt to be placed on the digital business to help pay down debt at the bricks & mortar business, but I think this exercise speaks to the value imbedded in the stock despite Las Vegas weakness keeping a lid on the shares. $CZR stock could easily be worth $50+ per share if they execute they buy back stock aggressively in 2025 and early 2026 and then spin the digital business in 2H 2026.

URL: https://x.com/cparyse86296/status/1950977897709060250

Pitch Summary:
Calavo Growers ($CVGW) is framed as an emerging merger-arbitrage opportunity with ~20% upside to a non-binding $32/share cash-and-stock offer. After years of operational missteps under prior management, the company’s founder returned as CEO in 2023, exited the low-margin RFG business, paid down debt, refocused on core avocado operations, and authorized a buyback. In June 2025, CVGW received an unsolicited bid from an undisclosed buyer, now under review, with downside estimated at <10% given strong insider buying and historical price support around $24. The founder/CEO has personally purchased over $7m of stock and is heavily incentivized through equity options, while his limited-term contract (ending March 2026) makes a sale a logical succession outcome. At ~12x 2024 EBITDA, the pitch suggests room for either deal completion or a higher bid.

BSD Analysis:
The fresh produce distribution industry is structurally low-margin and operationally complex, favoring scale, sourcing relationships, and execution discipline over growth narratives. Calavo’s competitive position has stabilized since the founder’s return, with a simplified portfolio and improving cost structure reducing execution risk. Industry conditions in avocados appear to be normalizing after volatility, supporting incremental EBITDA recovery. Governance dynamics materially improve deal odds: concentrated insider alignment, a credible turnaround leader nearing succession, and clear shareholder dissatisfaction with the status quo. The key risk is deal fatigue—non-binding offers can dissipate if buyers reassess commodity exposure or margin durability. However, insider buying near current levels creates a credible downside anchor, limiting asymmetry. Valuation does not appear stretched for a strategic buyer seeking supply-chain integration or scale. In this context, the equity offers a favorable risk/reward skew, with optionality for either a completed transaction or continued operational recovery under aligned leadership.

Actual Post Content:
Interesting Early Merger Arb Setup Developing at $CVGW — 20%+ Upside Potential CVGW is one of the largest distributors of avocados in the U.S. The company has faced multiple challenges in recent years, particularly after its founder and long-time CEO retired in 2019. The new management mishandled operations, leading to industry share loss and packaged segment underperformance, ultimately forcing the founder with a strong track record to come out of retirement in 2023. Since returning, he has sold the low-margin RFG (Renaissance Food Group) business, paid down debt, refocused on improving core avocado operations, and announced a buyback in March 2025. In June, the company received a non-binding, unsolicited offer, which is currently being reviewed. The offer is for $32/share in cash and stock, but the buyer remains undisclosed. Negotiations are ongoing, and the spread to the indicated bid is currently around 21%, with downside at less than 10%. The stock has rarely traded below $24 since the founder’s return. More importantly, the CEO has purchased over $7m worth of stock at prices between $24–30/share, with his most recent purchase exceeding $2m in April at prices between $23.70 and $24.60, so $24/share should be a good downside indicator here. The stock trades at approximately 12x 2024 EBITDA, with potential for further EBITDA improvement as the avocado market stabilizes. At current levels, a sale does not seem unlikely — especially considering the CEO/founder was forced out of retirement to turn the business around. He is now in his mid-80s and has a limited-term contract (ends in March 2026), so a sale would be a logical succession path. Importantly, he is well-incentivized: his annual base salary is just $64K, exceptionally low for a U.S.-listed company CEO, with most of his compensation tied to stock options that vest at $50–70/share. While that range may not reflect fair value in the near term, it underscores the CEO’s confidence in the value of the stock. Given his historical track record, it’s possible that fair value exceeds the proposed $32/share offer, and there is room for an increased offer. Overall, this appears to be an interesting setup with a favorable risk/reward profile. Looking forward to your thoughts.

URL: https://x.com/investspecial/status/1950839877496451373

Pitch Summary:
TrueBlue is a distressed industrial staffing provider currently in a "fix-it-or-sell-it" governance battle. After rejecting multiple unsolicited bids from HireQuest (HQI)—including a February 2025 offer of $12.30 per share and a May 2025 bid of $7.50—the board adopted a poison pill, drawing the ire of an activist shareholder base. The thesis suggests that TrueBlue's bloated corporate structure and underperforming branches would be worth significantly more if re-franchised under an owner-operator model.

BSD Analysis:
TrueBlue screens as a governance problem masquerading as a cyclical staffing downturn. The business has seen a decade-Bull "downward spiral," with annual revenue dropping from $2.8 billion in 2016 to $1.57 billion in 2024 (a 17.8% YoY decline). Despite these headwinds, the HireQuest bid provides a credible floor for the valuation. HQI’s franchise model is structurally superior, by converting TrueBlue’s corporate-owned PeopleReady offices into independently owned businesses, a buyer could slash overhead and restore branch-level accountability. The board’s rejection of a 76% premium offer (at the time of the $7.50 bid) has essentially "trapped" management into delivering an immediate turnaround. While the stock has traded as low as $4.65, the constant presence of a strategic bidder creates an asymmetric setup. Either management executes a structural reset via its JobStack digital platform, or the board will eventually be forced to capitulate to a sale.