Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Churchill Capital IX is set to merge with Plus, a company focused on developing software for autonomous trucking. The merger presents a potential opportunity due to Plus's partnerships with major truck manufacturers and its focus on a software-only business model, which could lead to high margins. However, the broader SPAC market's poor performance and the lack of a PIPE investment raise concerns about the valuation and competitive positioning of Plus.

BSD Analysis:
The autonomous trucking industry is poised for growth, driven by a significant driver shortage and the potential for substantial cost savings. Plus's strategy to focus solely on the software layer could lead to attractive margins, with projected gross margins around 85%. However, the competitive landscape is crowded, with companies like Aurora Innovation and Kodiak Robotics also vying for market share. Plus's valuation in the merger is notably lower than its peers, suggesting skepticism from industry insiders about its competitive edge. The absence of a PIPE investment further underscores potential concerns about the company's prospects. Given the historical underperformance of SPACs and the speculative nature of the autonomous trucking market, investors should approach with caution and consider waiting for more clarity post-merger.

Pitch Summary:
Nike's recent quarterly results reveal significant challenges, including declining revenues across all regions and a lack of clear catalysts for a turnaround. Despite management's optimistic outlook, the company's performance remains hampered by high tariffs, economic uncertainty, and strategic missteps in its direct-to-consumer approach. The stock's recent price surge appears disconnected from the underlying fundamentals, suggesting that investor enthusiasm may be premature.

BSD Analysis:
Nike's strategic pivot back to wholesale channels, after an overemphasis on direct-to-consumer sales, is a necessary correction but will take time to yield results. The company's inventory reduction efforts and new partnerships, such as with Amazon, are positive steps. However, the impact of U.S. tariffs and the competitive pressures in key markets like China and North America pose ongoing risks. Nike's current P/E ratio, inflated by recent stock price gains, suggests that the market may be overvaluing the company's near-term recovery prospects. Investors should be cautious, as the path to sustainable growth remains fraught with challenges, and the stock's valuation may not adequately reflect these risks.

Pitch Summary:
The top three contributors to the Fund’s second quarter performance were Healthcare Services Group, Papa Johns International, and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (ticker: PSLV). Two of these, Healthcare Services and Papa Johns, were new positions acquired during the market’s April turbulence and rebounded with other equities later in the quarter. The Sprott Silver Trust is a longstanding holding of the Fund. While gold has been one of the best performing assets over the past two years, silver has lagged. This led to an expansion in the ratio of gold to silver prices to reach the second highest level in generations in April. While silver is usually not treated as a safe haven like gold, silver may have appreciated in Q2 from investors seeking higher beta fiat substitutes.

BSD Analysis:
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) is a pure-play, non-dilutive vehicle for holding physical silver, offering investors a secure, convenient, and exchange-traded alternative to metal ownership. The core thesis is a direct bet on the price of silver, where the trust invests in unencumbered and fully-allocated London Good Delivery silver bars. Crucially, the trust offers a potential tax advantage for U.S. investors versus owning metals directly or through precious metals ETFs. With the metal being the second most used resource on earth and essential for the green economy (EVs, solar panels), PSLV is a high-conviction, defensive hedge against inflation and a leveraged bet on the industrial demand for silver.

Pitch Summary:
Papa John’s International is a leading operator and franchiser of pizza delivery and carryout restaurants. Papa John’s has been on our possible buy list for decades and is a business we know well. In fact, when we owned it previously, we used to make Papa John’s “pizza bets” with one another based on market hijinks before the credit crisis. Once, after six unsuccessful escalations of “double or nothing,” one of us accumulated a 64-pizza deficit! We bought Papa John’s stock during the April 2025 market selloff. Shortly after, the company reported Q1 2025 operating results that exceeded expectations. While the results were only slightly better than anticipated, the stock increased sharply after management indicated same-store sales would improve in the second half of the year. In addition to its earnings report, Papa John’s stock rallied along with the stock market later in the quarter and exceeded our calculated business value sooner than expected. As a result, we bought and sold shares in the same quarter. We exited the position before buyout rumors circulated.

BSD Analysis:
Papa John's is a deep-value, dividend-and-turnaround play whose stock is overwhelmingly controlled by institutional money betting on a global expansion. The core thesis is a clear dual motivation: a high 4.44% dividend yield and the massive growth potential of its international markets, where comparable sales are forecast to increase by 2% to 4%. Institutional investors, including activist-style funds, are betting on management's plan to open between 180 and 200 new international restaurants in 2025. The stock's high 36.8x P/E ratio suggests institutional money is already paying a premium for a substantial future rebound that has not fully materialized.

Pitch Summary:
With energy prices falling sharply early in the quarter, we also purchased RPC, Inc. Founded in 1984, RPC is an energy service company specializing in pressure pumping, downhole tools, coiled tubing, and cementing. Customers include major multinational and independent oil and gas producers. RPC has an extremely strong balance sheet with no debt and over $300 million in cash. While its industry is very cyclical, we believe its financial strength and modern equipment will allow it to survive and take market share during periods of declining drilling activity. While the U.S. oil rig count is down, industry production has grown through increased efficiency and processing a backlog of uncompleted wells. Yet, we may be approaching a cresting of domestic oil production without more investment in services.

BSD Analysis:
RPC is a high-beta, high-efficiency oilfield services specialist whose stock is poised for a major re-rating driven by technological innovation and margin expansion. The core thesis is driven by the company's better-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings, with an EPS beat and 6% sequential revenue growth. RPC's competitive moat is its focus on innovations in downhole motor technology and natural gas frac pump exploration, which position it for market share gains. The stock surged 8.09% after its earnings release, reflecting strong investor confidence in its ability to execute strategic growth and cost management despite market challenges. RPC is a leveraged bet on the non-discretionary investment in specialized technology needed for efficient well completions.

Pitch Summary:
Chord Energy is an exploration and production (E&P) company in the Williston Basin. As oil prices fell sharply in April, Chord’s stock fell below our valuation of the firm’s proven reserves. We’re fond of Chord’s strong balance sheet, free cash flow, and low-cost oil reserves. In 2024, the company generated $2.35 billion of EBITDA and $1 billion of free cash flow. Since the majority of Chord’s $800 million in debt doesn’t mature until 2033, we believe free cash flow will continue to be used to pay dividends and repurchase stock. Since 2021, Chord has paid $56 per share in dividends (over half the current share price!). With a market cap near $5 billion, we believe Chord is attractively priced relative to cash flow and our net asset valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Chord Energy is a focused, high-growth Williston Basin E&P pure-play whose stock is a leveraged bet on a disciplined capital return strategy and successful asset integration. The core thesis is the successful integration of the Enerplus acquisition, which led to a 35% increase in pro forma free cash flow per share. The company is aggressively focused on rewarding shareholders, returning 69% of free cash flow and maintaining a "defendable down to low levels of oil price" dividend. Its 2026 guidance remains strong, with oil production expected between 157,000–161,000 barrels per day. Chord is a high-quality, high-return bet on the efficiency and continued production of the Williston Basin.

Pitch Summary:
Healthcare Services Group is the largest provider of housekeeping, laundry, and dietary services to nursing homes in the United States. The company has been in business for 48 years and services over 2,500 facilities. It has an 80%+ market share for facilities that outsource. After suffering from declining revenues and labor shortages during COVID, the company’s operating results have been gradually improving over the past year, along with the long-term healthcare industry. In fact, management noted its first quarter results were the best they’ve seen in five years due to an increase in new clients, strong cash collections, and a strengthening balance sheet. Due to its solid first quarter and expectations of further improvements, the company raised its 2025 cash flow guidance from $45-$60 million to $60-$75 million. We’re attracted to Healthcare Services Group’s free cash flow generation and its strong debt-free balance sheet. While we were pleased with its recent operating results and improved outlook, we sold a portion of the position shortly after purchasing, as its rising stock price reduced the discount to our calculated valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Healthcare Services Group is a high-growth, non-cyclical services pure-play whose stock is a clear-cut turnaround success story. The core moat is its massive, untapped market opportunity within the nursing home industry, where only 15% of 23,000 facilities currently outsource environmental services. The company is aggressively capturing this market, leading to 6.26% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Crucially, the company holds more cash than debt and has a healthy current ratio of 2.97. Following an impressive Q3 2025 earnings beat (180.95% EPS surprise), analysts maintained a Buy rating and see significant upside, as the nursing home industry occupancy rates recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Pitch Summary:
Curtiss-Wright is an industrial conglomerate serving the aerospace, defense, and nuclear power industries. The company is not a household name, but it probably should be. CW’s history traces back to the invention of flight as its predecessor company was founded by the Wright brothers. The stock went public in 1929 and has remained publicly listed ever since, making it one of the NYSE’s longest continuously listed companies.
Today, Curtiss-Wright owns a collection of high-quality businesses that operate with limited to no competition. CW’s legacy as one of the original defense contractors in the aerospace and naval industries has given it a monopoly position in many critical components including naval propulsion systems and chips that power jet fighters. The Company is also the sole provider of nuclear reactor cores to the key players in the commercial nuclear power sector.
Our Curtiss-Wright investment thesis is two-fold. First, we see several tailwinds continuing to benefit CW’s aerospace and defense markets. Second, we believe the Company’s commercial nuclear power business is under-appreciated due to the expanded opportunity to serve the rising power needs of data centers. We first purchased CW’s stock in September 2023 but recently doubled down on our position in March 2025 after building conviction in the upside case for the stock.
Approximately 80% of Curtiss-Wright’s earnings today are tied to aerospace and defense sales. The Company serves an increasingly diverse number of customers and use cases. For example, in commercial and military airplanes, CW supplies electro-mechanical actuation systems, flight controllers, engine sensors, thermal spray coatings, and wheel speed sensors. There are too many components to name here but the key theme is that CW sells small but critical parts. The exception to this rule is in CW’s naval portfolio where the Company is the preferred provider of key components in nuclear propulsion systems used by aircraft carriers and submarines.
Over the past 10 years, Curtiss-Wright has been able to drive organic revenue growth of roughly 5% and EPS growth of roughly 14%. Looking ahead, we believe many of the following growth tailwinds are intact or are accelerating which should continue to propel the CW’s financial results.
Curtiss-Wright is the leading supplier of defense electronics. These are chips and other electrical components that go in all types of military hardware. Over time, more electronics have gone into hardware (tanks, missiles, jets, etc.) as the military has gotten more computerized. Embedding artificial intelligence into military hardware platforms will only make defense electronics more critical.
Curtiss-Wright uses commercial-off-the-shelf chips from Nvidia/AMD and customizes them to suit the needs of specific military use cases. As a result, CW has limited R&D or capex requirements. However, Curtiss-Wright’s legacy in this market provides it with substantial incumbency advantages. The Company is deeply embedded into the electronics stack of various hardware programs, making CW virtually impossible to dislodge by competitors. This business is highly diversified across branches of the military and hardware types. The result is that CW has a highly predictable order book that generates meaningful free cash flow with limited capital investment.
Curtiss-Wright benefits from the general uptrend in commercial flights driven by travel demand. The global airplane fleet is expected to double over the next 20 years and is supported by record backlogs at Airbus and Boeing. Curtiss-Wright has content on virtually all Boeing and Airbus models and will benefit from the rising tide.
Curtiss-Wright has outsized exposure to the US Navy, and the Trump administration just proposed a 40% increase to the naval shipbuilding budget. The US Navy has become a larger priority in recent years due to the need to protect US interests in key waterways including the Persian Gulf and the South China Sea. CW is particularly levered to the Trump administration’s Naval priorities which include expanding the US nuclear submarine fleet.
Global defense spending has accelerated in recent years due to the high-threat environment. NATO countries have pledged to increase defense spending in the coming years. As the leading provider of defense electronics across over 400 platforms and 3,000 programs, Curtiss-Wright is well-positioned to benefit.
The crux of our investment thesis lies in our belief that Curtiss-Wright’s commercial nuclear business could see earnings grow 5x over the next 5 to 8 years. Commercial nuclear represents 20% of CW’s earnings; therefore, 5x growth in this segment is needle-moving for the company overall.

BSD Analysis:
Curtiss-Wright is a specialized defense and industrial-tech company with exposure to naval systems, aerospace components, and nuclear power infrastructure. The portfolio is mission-critical, high-margin, and difficult for competitors to displace. Defense budgets and nuclear modernization both provide multi-year visibility. The company runs lean and allocates capital well, enabling consistent earnings growth. It’s not a flashy defense prime — it’s a precision-engineering machine. Execution reliability is high. A quiet but elite operator in defense tech.

Pitch Summary:
The reason I hedge here is that Palantir itself is very broad and vague as to what it actually does, but the above is my understanding from ground level research. What is interesting about PLTR is the valuation. Palantir, trading at a wild ~nearly 90 times revenues and 400+ times earnings as of this writing, is by some measures the most expensive large cap stock ever to exist, and is still one of the most expensive ever when looking across any stock size. Given PLTR trades at ~90 times sales, what this means PLTR has to literally ~9x their revenues to grow into the current valuation. To do this over 5 years would require ~54% annual revenue growth; over 7 years ~36% per year. Business software has just never grown at the rate Palantir needs to justify its valuation at Palantir’s current scale. If we have a recession I will bet that tech multiples are not 10x sales, but closer to 5x or even lower, which would compound with slower growth and could easily see Palantir trade materially lower. I’m willing to take the other side of that bet, particularly as a hedge.

BSD Analysis:
Palantir is a high-stakes, high-conviction AI software powerhouse whose value is locked in the successful monetization of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) across the commercial enterprise. The core thesis is driven by the company's unassailable dominance in AI-powered operational decision-making, leveraging its deep government experience to solve complex commercial problems. The AIP Ontology is its true moat, serving as a unified data model that makes complex enterprise data legible to LLMs, thereby minimizing hallucinations and increasing utility. The stock is a high-risk, high-reward play on its ability to rapidly monetize its unique AI technology in the private sector.

Pitch Summary:
We invested in SPWH in Q1 and early Q2, at an average basis of $1.68/share - now it trades at ~$3.5 due to strong Q1 results (although very volatile!). The investment here was fairly simple - Sportman’s is a sporting goods & hunting retailer with a large focus on firearms, which has suffered from a covid demand pull forward hangover, over expansion, & mismanagement. Same store sales had been negative for several years now, but a new CEO was brought in and seemed to be making progress turning it around. At our investment price, the stock was dirt cheap if the turnaround was successful - a mere 3x stabilized EBITDA (which would itself be well below pre-covid margin and store level sales). The turnaround is certainly not done, but they posted positive same store sales in Q1 for the first time in a long time, and continue to reduce costs and improve margins, triggering a big rally. Critically for me, the category feels like it has real legs, as competitors Dick’s and Bass Pro were doing fairly well, and the store base is actually quite new and nice. The main downside here (thus far) is this was a relatively smaller position, so the overall fund impact isn't enormous. Still - if we have a recession Sportsman’s may be put into a difficult position of seeing sales fall again before their turnaround is complete, so there is real macro risk here beyond the execution risk.

BSD Analysis:
Sportsman's Warehouse is a deep-value, high-risk specialty retailer whose stock is an asymmetric recovery bet on its successful turnaround in the outdoor sports and recreation market. The core thesis is driven by the company's aggressive focus on cost reduction and inventory optimization to improve its operating leverage. The stock is currently trading at a steep discount, penalized by volatile consumer spending and high debt. However, a slight improvement in consumer discretionary spending could lead to a massive earnings inflection due to the company's aggressive cost-cutting. The stock is a leveraged play on the eventual recovery of consumer spending in its niche market.

Pitch Summary:
Triveni Turbine Limited (TTL): Before I get started, please allow me to jog your memory to the four-part investment objective I use at SVN Capital. • Is it a business that I can understand? • Is it a business that generates high returns on incremental capital, and does it have great reinvestment opportunities? • Is the business run by an honest and competent management team with skin in the game? • Is the company undervalued? I will answer each question. Business: TTL is the market leader in industrial steam turbines in India. Industrial steam turbines are used in power plants, steel, sugar, paper, chemicals, and other industrial processes. The company operates in a duopoly market in India and is gaining share. The company’s turbines are critical to industrial processes and represent a small portion of the customer’s total capital expenditure. The company has a strong aftermarket business, which provides recurring revenue and higher margins. Returns: TTL generates high returns on incremental capital. The company has an asset-light business model with minimal working capital needs. The company’s return on capital employed (ROCE) is consistently high, and it has reinvestment opportunities in both the domestic and export markets. The company’s export business has grown meaningfully and now represents a significant portion of revenue. Management: TTL is run by a competent management team. The company is owner-operated; insiders own 56% of the shares. The management team has demonstrated prudent capital allocation, maintaining a net cash balance sheet and investing in capacity, technology, and product development. The company has also improved its corporate governance and disclosure over time. Valuation: TTL is undervalued relative to its quality and growth prospects. The company has a strong order book (INR 23.6 billion), which provides revenue visibility. The company’s end markets are supported by structural tailwinds: India’s industrial capex cycle, increasing energy efficiency requirements, and the global shift toward cleaner energy solutions. The company’s competitive position, high returns, and strong balance sheet justify a premium valuation, yet the stock does not fully reflect these fundamentals. Conclusion: TTL fits well within our investment objective. It is a high-quality business with strong competitive advantages, high returns on capital, aligned owner-operators, and attractive valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Triveni Turbine is a high-quality, specialized industrial equipment pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the accelerating global demand for industrial steam turbines. The core thesis is driven by its dominance in providing customized turbines for critical industrial processes (sugar, steel, cement) and power generation. The company's focus on product innovation and efficient manufacturing allows it to capture a large share of both the domestic Indian and export markets. The high operating margin and strong domestic order book provide a stable foundation, while its global expansion into Middle East and Southeast Asia offers significant high-growth optionality. Triveni is a high-quality compounder leveraging its specialized engineering moat to capture non-cyclical industrial demand.

Pitch Summary:
Next is Dino Polska (DNP), the Polish grocery chain, which is another long-term holding in the fund. After underperforming in 2024 (-15.0%), the stock price has reversed course and is up +35.0% year-to-date. After realizing the folly of applying the brakes to new store formation, the management team has taken its foot off the brake and is pressing on the gas pedal; store growth in the last two quarters indicates that it’s on pace to open a store a day. There are a couple of reasons why the operating performance of Q1 2025 looks a little light. • There were fewer open days in Q1 2025: grocery stores in Catholic Poland were allowed to remain open only on one Sunday in Q1 2025. • Delayed Easter: the week-long grocery spending for Easter (April 20, 2025) celebrations got pushed to Q2. I expect the operating performance for the rest of the year to reflect the renewed vigor.

BSD Analysis:
Dino Polska is a high-velocity, discount retail oligopolist whose stock is a conviction bet on its relentless organic store expansion in Poland's underserved smaller cities. The core thesis is driven by its unique, scalable strategy: modern, medium-sized supermarkets situated close to residential areas, which aligns perfectly with consumer trends for convenience and fresh, healthy food. The company's store count surged from 511 in 2015 to 2,688 at the end of 2024, and it continues to grow aggressively. Despite missing recent profit targets due to fierce competition, the underlying like-for-like (LFL) sales growth remains robust at 4.4%. Dino is a leveraged bet on the structural growth of the Polish consumer market, underpinned by its efficient logistics and superior scale.

Pitch Summary:
CPRT, another long-term holding (~five years), is down ~25% from its recent high earlier this year—all of it following the company’s announcement of FQ3 2025 results (the company’s fiscal year-end is July 31). For context, we have endured even worse drawdowns in this stock in the past. CPRT remains the dominant player in the duopoly market of auto salvage. The company has diversified into other business lines, such as whole car (from dealers) and heavy equipment (Purple Wave). However, the majority of revenue sources are North America-based salvage vehicles, fed by insurance companies, where the company acts as the eBay of dinged and damaged vehicles. All the major drivers of the business continue to provide tailwinds for CPRT: • The average age of vehicles on the road is 14.5 years, an all-time high. • The % cost of electronic components in a vehicle is 40% in 2025, an increase from ~16% in 2000. The % cost is expected to be more than 50% of the total vehicle by 2030; this leads to higher repair costs. • The cost of labor to repair vehicles is $85 to $175 per hour, a steady increase over time due to labor shortages, vehicle complexity, and inflation. These forces are increasingly nudging insurance companies to total the damaged vehicles, then sell them to CPRT and its competitors for salvage value. The total loss ratio in the auto insurance sector is at an all-time high of 22.6%. It has increased from ~4.0% in 1980 and is expected to surpass 30% in the immediate future, indicating that more vehicles are expected to be turned over for salvage value. So, why is the stock down so much? Before I share my reasons, below is a look at the company’s financial performance over time. The recent sales growth trajectory raises the question of whether a quondam fast-growth business is transitioning into a stable-growth stalwart. Another persistent question in the minds of investors is the threat of autonomous driving. In my mind, it’s an issue that is widely discussed but remains largely theoretical and distant. CPRT is growing at its slowest pace in recent memory, due to the weakness in the used car market and the reluctance of consumers to buy vehicles at elevated prices, amid higher interest rates. The auto industry data shows that consumers are holding on to their cars longer, leading to reduced supply of used cars. With new car prices still elevated, this is likely to persist. This has caused the volume of salvage vehicles to decline, lowering the supply that feeds the company’s auctions. Additionally, the company’s international operations have experienced temporary slowdowns in certain markets, such as Germany and the UK. These slowdowns are more cyclical and relate to the insurance sector adjusting to new regulations and insurance industry reforms. In turn, this has impacted margins. I am more convinced than ever that this is temporary and that the company’s intrinsic value and competitive advantage are intact. We often talk about the moats of an investment: the advantages it has over its competitors. CPRT’s moat is the value of its auction platform: its technology, the level of participation in its auctions, and the size of its buyer base. These are all very hard to replicate. The company’s strong balance sheet adds a layer of comfort; it has $4.3 billion in net cash. Historically, CPRT has reinvested nearly all of its free cash flow in acquiring land (it owns ~19,000 acres of land) and developing its technology. I remain confident in the management’s ability to exhibit its opportunistic streak.

BSD Analysis:
Copart is the unassailable, high-margin oligopolist in salvage vehicle auctions, built on one of the most resilient marketplace models in the U.S. economy. The core moat is its massive, interconnected physical and digital infrastructure—its large footprint of geographically dispersed vehicle yards and its proprietary online auction system. This model is capital-efficient and scales with volume, earning revenue primarily from fees charged to both sellers (insurers) and buyers (dismantlers, exporters). Critically, the supply of salvage vehicles is non-discretionary, driven by accident frequency and total-loss rates, making the business resilient even during economic downturns. Copart is a high-quality compounder leveraging operational efficiency and network scale, which justifies its premium valuation.

Pitch Summary:
At KKR ($664 billion in AUM; dry powder of $116 billion), capital raised ($114 billion in the last 12 months) and capital deployed ($101 billion) have remained healthy, while realizations were slightly lower. As the tariff turbulence abates, I expect the realizations to improve and the entire process to get back on track. With dry powder accounting for 17% of its AUM, KKR is in pole position to deploy capital should the markets wobble further. For example, KKR invested in Global Atlantic, an annuity provider, right during the COVID crisis in 2020. In the meantime, ANI (Adjusted Net Income = total operating earnings + realized investing earnings – interest expense), one of the primary valuation metrics, continues to grow: $4.4 billion ($4.88/share) in the last 12 months, up 37%. Nothing has impeded KKR’s plan to generate $15.00/share in ANI before 2034. I expect the Peter Lynch-described wound of 2025 to heal over time, as it did the last time.

BSD Analysis:
KKR is one of the few alternative asset managers that has successfully scaled without losing investment discipline, blending private equity, credit, infrastructure, and real assets under one platform. Its edge comes from long-duration capital and deep operational involvement, allowing KKR to drive value beyond financial engineering. The firm has been especially strong in private credit and infrastructure, where demand for non-bank capital continues to grow. Fee-related earnings are becoming more predictable as permanent capital and insurance-linked assets expand, reducing reliance on lumpy realizations. The main risk is cyclicality in exits and fundraising when capital markets tighten, which can compress performance fees. However, KKR’s diversified strategies and global footprint cushion those cycles better than most peers. This is a compounder in alternatives, not a one-cycle trade, as long as private markets keep absorbing capital from traditional asset managers.

Pitch Summary:
Evolution Gaming (EVO.ST) I am not going to explain the business model, because there’s plenty of writeups around. Suffice to know that the stock has performed poorly due to a regulatory (hackers might be government agents too?) crackdown on their black markets activity (which is the most profitable). In Q1 they reported negative EBITDA YoY growth for the first time, margin compression and signaled that Q2 would be bad, but recovery would come in the second half (I know, the second half thing). I personally think that only revenue in developed markets is worth a normal multiple (the EBITDA margin here is way lower, and loss making in the US probably) and black market revenue is worth a low single digits multiple on cash earnings. You are paying around 10 times sales for the white markets if you give a multiple of 4 to the black/grey market earnings. I guess the key is how big and profitable the US operations can get. In this chart, you can see when big (a few million dollars) purchases were made by the CEO: I would think they are not about to put out terrible news.

BSD Analysis:
Evolution is the king of live casino, effectively providing the “content and studio” layer for online gambling operators worldwide. The economics are excellent: scalable production, high margins, and network effects as more operators and players gravitate toward the best games. The main risks are regulatory changes, geographic concentration, and the inevitable political attention that comes with gambling profits. Competition exists, but Evolution’s studio scale, game quality, and distribution are hard to replicate quickly. Growth is driven by market expansion, new game formats, and operators outsourcing more of the live experience. If regulation stays rational, Evolution keeps compounding like an entertainment infrastructure company. If regulation turns hostile, multiples compress fast—this is the price of the business model.

Pitch Summary:
Rxsight (RXST) This company sells intraocular lenses (IOLs). When you get eye surgery to fix your vision, normally you get your cornea sliced to adjust your dioptres and compensate for the crystalline deformation. When it comes to IOLs (widely used in cataracts as slicing the cornea won’t help) they get your natural lens out and put in a new artificial one. You won’t believe me, but cataracts were being treated in the early antiquity. Back then, the only solution was to push the crystalline down into the eye, basically getting rid of the cloudy lens and allowing some kind of vision (the lens is there for a reason, a lot myopia is the normal outcome, and many times, zero vision). Of course, the intervention was only considered when the cataract was very very advanced, basically making those people as good as blind. Anyhow, come modernity, we now replace the lens. Thanks innovation, we have plenty to choose from as the replacement: Conventional (monofocal IOL): Our natural lens is partly the tool that allows us to focus so we can see things that are 1 meter away as well as things that are 20 meters away, despite the light having a different angle. With monofocal IOL, that ability is “lost” and you rely on glasses to adjust to short and long term ranges. These lenses don’t correct presbyopia or astigmatism. These are the cheaper ones. Multifocal IOLs: These are more advanced lenses implanted during cataract or refractive surgery that provide vision at multiple distances, reducing or eliminating the need for glasses. Your ability to “focus” is still lost, but the lenses use concentric rings or segmented zones with different focal powers to allow the brain to adapt and select the appropriate focus depending on the visual task. While many patients achieve good spectacle independence, some may experience halos, glare, or reduced contrast sensitivity, especially at night. Astigmatism-Correcting or Toric Intraocular Lenses (IOLs): Toric IOLs are specially designed to correct pre-existing corneal astigmatism. Unlike standard monofocal lenses, toric IOLs have different optical powers in different meridians of the lens to neutralize the uneven curvature of the cornea. They must be precisely aligned during surgery to be effective. By correcting astigmatism at the time of lens implantation, they often reduce or eliminate the need for glasses or contact lenses for distance vision. Patients would still require glasses unless combined with multifocal technology. The last two, fix different problems, multifocal IOLs allow for a reduced or nil use of glasses, but sometimes create halos and need replacement (yes another surgery) and the Toric lenses fix an existing vision problem, these technologies can be combined. That gets us to what we can call the “premium IOL” market, of which RxSight has 10% share with their solution, the Light Adjustable Lens (LAL), from the 10K: RxSight’s LAL system enables precise, non-invasive post-surgical customization of the intraocular lens (IOL) using UV light. The LAL is made from a proprietary silicone polymer containing photo-reactive macromers that can be reshaped after implantation. Following cataract surgery, a doctor uses the Light Delivery Device (LDD) to project UV light patterns that adjust lens shape and power in-office, based on the patient’s visual preferences. This iterative process allows up to three adjustments for optimal vision without additional surgery. The LAL offers superior accuracy in correcting refractive errors, including astigmatism, with minimal glare or halos—common drawbacks of multifocal IOLs. For surgeons, it reduces reliance on preoperative measurements and enhances practice profitability. For patients, it delivers customized, high-quality visual outcomes with broad distance coverage and high satisfaction. Clinical studies show LALs outperform conventional IOLs in uncorrected vision, making RxSight a disruptive solution in premium cataract care. The LALs offer two advantages over other premium IOLs. First, you don’t rely on a previous measurement of a vision problem to correct it, you can adjust post implantation and most importantly, can adjust further if the vision problem evolves without a new surgery, basically buying insurance in case your vision changes. Second, the halo effect and glare typical of the multifocal IOLs is less prevalent. The LALs work as a plain monofocal, it has no rings that split light and cause halos. What makes it special is the silicone matrix that can be reshaped with the LDD weeks after the eye has healed. Adjustments with the LDD replace the “extra focal points” of multifocals: instead of sending part of the light to near, the lens refocuses all of the light where the patient wants it. Some patients still need glasses for long night drives or really small print. All that text wall just to justify the belief that they have a premium product, that it is probably the best option in the market, but the extra cost might not be worth it for everyone. What I mean is that this product is worth something. Maybe the final penetration rate is today’s 10%, maybe it goes up to 20% or higher. I don’t know, but the uniqueness of the product is there. This is the enterprise value of the company: This is the EV/S: And these are some financial metrics: We can see someone got excited in 2024 and the company raised $110mm at $53 per share in may 2024. The company has almost $230mm in cash for a $530mm market cap. I know that the savvy readers are pointing at that Q1 revenue drop and asking, what’s going on. Let me tell you, it’s not only that Q1 revenues dropped, a metric that shows the health of the product, which is LALs installed per LDD machine dropped YoY (I like to think of that metric as the LFL for retail companies, it’s good to grow opening new stores, but the sales per store going down is a sign of trouble. Thank god RXST fixed costs don’t depend on the number of LDDs around though). I want to turn you off a bit more, showing you how the company approached the missed Q1 guidance. 25th of February they reaffirm guidance, then just after the end of the quarter they pull this: How bad was March that they had to cut guidance by 15%? Why did that decel in March happen? Those are the questions the thesis boils down to. The company says that the macro uncertainty made their clients pull out of the market, as well as launches by two competitors of premium IOLs (not LALs) that went aggressively to market in a non economical way that, according to management, is not sustainable. This was said during the Q1 CC: Two for me. First, Shelley, I just want to make sure I heard you right. I think you said second quarter will be below the low end of the range. Does that mean we're looking at something less than $38 million in sales in 2Q? Shelley Thunen (CFO) Oh, I didn't get that specific at all. I didn't give guidance on the second quarter. What I did say is that as we go through the year, I would expect second quarter to not be the type of quarter we've typically seen with a big uptick and that most of the growth on the LAL side will happen in the second half. What Ron did say is that we saw encouraging signs as we exited April in terms of volume getting better. And so, I'm just being cautionary on the second quarter, just given the macroeconomics and some market turmoil and giving us time for consumers to not necessarily -- they haven't been harmed, but people tend to stand still until they know how something is going to affect them. So we think more of that will happen in the second half and also that trialing will start to abate in the third quarter. The company has been to several Conferences after the Q1 earnings call and they don’t sound upbeat about Q2. In fact, they are pointing out at the second half and are “hopeful”. This company is however barely burning cash (the losses are mostly SBC) and they do have a premium product with 10% of the high end IOL market while trading at less than 2 times revenues. My bet is that this company is not going away, that growth might pick up (if fact, macro has gotten quite better since April), that the shareholders have stopped liquidating their holdings and the stock might go up again. The bear case is that Q2 is bad, they guide down the year and you start wondering whether the 2023 and 2024 growth was due to some other reason than the goodness of the product. Then the time to reevaluate will come and probably sell. Despite that, I own shares and I think at this valuation the risk reward is good. I am also short puts 12.5 strikes that I think given the cash pile makes them a nice bet. I have found that puts are not efficiently priced when companies have a big to huge percentage of the market cap in cash and no debt.

BSD Analysis:
RxSight is disrupting cataract treatment with a technology that allows post-surgery vision customization, which is exactly the kind of “quality-of-life” innovation patients will pay for. The story is compelling because it improves outcomes and reduces the guesswork that exists in traditional lens selection. Adoption is still scaling, and the biggest driver is surgeon workflow integration and patient awareness—once clinicians are comfortable, utilization can rise quickly. The bear case is that reimbursement, competition, or adoption friction slows the ramp, which would hit valuation hard. The bull case is that RxSight becomes a category standard in premium cataract procedures, expanding the installed base and driving recurring revenue from consumables. Execution risk is real, but the clinical value proposition is intuitive. If uptake continues, operating leverage can be substantial.

Pitch Summary:
Howmet is a precision -engineered aerospace and defense supplier that benefits from long product cycles and high switching costs. Its exposure to both commercial and military aircraft demand creates a durable earnings stream. We value HWM not just for its s trong fundamentals, but for its discipline in capital allocation and margin expansion potential as the aviation cycle continues to recover post -COVID.

BSD Analysis:
Howmet is the aerospace materials specialist powering every next-gen jet engine — turbine blades, fasteners, structures — all with insane technical requirements that make switching suppliers nearly impossible. With commercial aerospace roaring back and defense demand rising, Howmet’s content per aircraft is expanding fast. Margins keep climbing because this business is about precision, not price. This is a pure, high-quality aerospace compounder masquerading as an industrial.

Pitch Summary:
Credo is a stealthy compounder in the high -performance connectivity and data infrastructure space. As AI workloads explode and data centers scale up, Credo’s low -power, high -efficiency solutions are becoming increasingly mission -critical. We believe the co mpany is still early in its growth arc and well positioned to benefit from secular trends in hyperscale data transmission and edge computing.

BSD Analysis:
Credo is a pure play on the data-center bandwidth explosion — its high-speed connectivity solutions reduce power, cost, and complexity in AI-scale networking. Hyperscalers love Credo because its SerDes and AEC technologies push performance without cooking the electricity bill. As AI clusters balloon, connectivity becomes the bottleneck, and Credo is one of the few suppliers with differentiated silicon and deep customer integrations. This is an early-stage infrastructure winner in the AI plumbing race.

Pitch Summary:
Robinhood is not just a brokerage app —it’s a disruptive financial platform rewriting the rules of consumer finance. With its $0 trading model, Robinhood forced incumbents to adapt, but now it’s doing the same to banking. The newly launched Robinhood Gold credit card offers 3% cash back —confounding traditional banks. Why? Because Robinhood doesn’t have the legacy cost structure of old -world financial institutions. This card is more than just a product; it’s one of the most brilliant customer acquisition tools we’ve seen in fintech. We see Robinhood as a Trojan horse in retail finance —nimble, bold, and rapidly expanding its ecosystem.

BSD Analysis:
Robinhood has evolved from a meme casino into a legitimate financial-services ecosystem — deposits rising, credit card coming, retirement accounts gaining traction, and engagement stabilizing. Rate tailwinds turned net interest income into fuel for product expansion. The brand still owns the retail investing mindshare, and the platform is increasingly sticky. Robinhood now has real operating leverage, and if market volumes stay elevated, this stock has way more torque than skeptics admit. It’s not a joke anymore — it’s a fintech engine with real momentum.

Pitch Summary:
Columbus Circle Capital Corp I (CCCM) is a SPAC merging with Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap BTC LLC — a bitcoin treasury company formed to acquire and hold BTC. ProCap has already deployed $500 million to purchase ~4,950 BTC, with over $750 million raised and a $1 billion merger pending. The resulting public entity, ProCap Financial Inc., will effectively be a pure-play listed Bitcoin treasury similar to Metaplanet or MicroStrategy but currently trades at a fraction of peers’ implied NAV multiples. Based on Pompliano’s data, CCCM shares trade at ~1.3× mNAV vs 2.2× for the next-cheapest peer (Cantor Equity Partners) and >3× for others. With a redemption floor near $10/share and current price $10.50, the downside is limited to ~$0.55/share while upside could reach $17–18/share if the discount closes. Investors effectively get a call option on BTC and on multiple expansion once the deal closes. Liquidity is substantial, and the SPAC’s cash is fully funded. Risks include deal failure or Bitcoin price declines post-merger, but the asymmetric setup makes CCCM an appealing short-term risk/reward arbitrage.

BSD Analysis:
A SPAC-arbitrage play on the ProCap BTC merger. CCCM offers near-floor downside with significant upside tied to NAV re-rating and Bitcoin appreciation. The transaction provides a liquid, publicly traded way to gain exposure to a BTC treasury strategy at the cheapest entry multiple among peers.