Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Headwater Exploration is positioned as a strong buy due to its robust EBIT margin of 47.58%, which is significantly higher than its peers, allowing for operational expansion. The company plans to increase production by 30.48% by 2027 and offers a dividend yield of 6.35%. Despite potential declines in oil prices, Headwater's low debt levels and experienced management team provide resilience against market volatility.

BSD Analysis:
Headwater's financial health is underscored by a liabilities-to-assets ratio of 25.22% as of Q1 2025, indicating low debt levels. This financial stability is crucial given the anticipated decline in oil prices, as suggested by the WTI forward curve, which could see prices drop to $61 per barrel. Despite this, Headwater's operating margin is expected to remain competitive, potentially decreasing to 40.13% from 47.58%. The company's management, with a proven track record in the oil industry, has successfully increased production and profitability since 2020. Furthermore, Headwater's relative valuation suggests it is undervalued, with a price-to-earnings-based fair value of $6.94 per share, indicating a 37.67% undervaluation. However, the company's low reserve levels, with a proven reserve life index of 4.7 years, pose a risk compared to peers like CNQ, which boasts reserves for 33 years. Nonetheless, Headwater's strategic focus on high-margin assets and disciplined capital allocation supports its growth trajectory and investment appeal.

Pitch Summary:
Sprouts Farmers Market has experienced significant stock price appreciation, driven by strong financial performance and a growing demand for organic products. However, the stock's high valuation relative to peers and recent insider selling suggest caution. While the company's fundamentals remain robust, the current price may already reflect much of its growth potential, making it advisable to hold rather than buy at this time.

BSD Analysis:
Sprouts Farmers Market's financial metrics indicate strong operational performance, with a notable increase in sales and net income. The company's focus on health-conscious consumers and expansion plans align well with the growing U.S. health and wellness market, projected to nearly double by 2030. Despite these positives, Sprouts trades at a premium, with P/E ratios significantly higher than competitors like Albertsons and Kroger. A DCF analysis suggests the stock is overvalued by approximately 20%, factoring in a conservative growth rate to account for potential fluctuations in free cash flow. Insider selling by the CEO and other executives adds a layer of caution, as it may signal their perception of limited upside at current valuations. Investors should monitor upcoming financial results and insider activity closely, as any deviation from expected performance could impact the stock's trajectory.

Pitch Summary:
Salesforce appears undervalued due to its recent stock price correction, despite the company's strong fundamentals and growth prospects. The firm's AI-driven initiatives, particularly through its Agentforce and Data Cloud platforms, are expected to drive significant revenue growth. Salesforce's consistent margin expansion and robust free cash flow generation further support the investment case. The company's recent guidance increase and potential for earnings beats suggest a favorable outlook, making the current valuation attractive.

BSD Analysis:
Salesforce's strategic focus on AI and cloud solutions positions it well for future growth, with Agentforce and Data Cloud showing impressive adoption rates. The company's operating margin guidance of 34% for FY2026 indicates strong operational efficiency, which should enhance EPS growth relative to sales growth. Salesforce's aggressive share buyback program, with $3 billion spent in Q1 alone, reflects management's confidence in the firm's long-term prospects and provides a solid shareholder yield of approximately 4.8%. Despite competitive pressures from tech giants like Microsoft and Oracle, Salesforce's valuation, trading at a 30% discount to the sector's median forward PEG ratio, suggests significant upside potential. The projected 12% EPS growth for FY2027, coupled with a reasonable earnings multiple, supports a target price of $315.75, representing a 21.44% increase from current levels. However, execution risks in marketing new AI offerings and maintaining competitive margins remain key considerations.

Pitch Summary:
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is positioned to benefit from the long-term bullish outlook on copper due to increasing demand driven by electrification, renewable energy, and AI infrastructure. Despite recent volatility caused by U.S. tariffs on copper imports, the ETF's diversified holdings mitigate risks associated with individual miners and geographic regions. The structural supply-demand imbalance in the copper market suggests a favorable environment for copper prices, making COPX an attractive investment for those seeking exposure to this critical commodity.

BSD Analysis:
The imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. has created short-term volatility but does not alter the fundamental supply-demand dynamics favoring copper. The ETF's diverse portfolio allows it to capitalize on rising U.S. copper prices while mitigating risks from lower global prices. With copper demand projected to double by 2035, driven by the energy transition and AI data center expansion, the ETF stands to benefit from operational leverage as copper prices rise. Trading at a price to free cash flow multiple of 6.12, COPX is undervalued compared to the broader market, offering a compelling entry point for investors. However, potential risks include economic slowdowns, increased mining costs, and geopolitical factors, which could impact copper prices and miner profitability. Nonetheless, COPX's diversification provides a hedge against these risks, reinforcing its position as a strategic investment in the copper sector.

Pitch Summary:
Texas Instruments is a fairly new holding in the fund, added in January of 2024. We view TI as a great example of the type of business we can own for many years despite participating in what is probably one of the most cyclical and volatile industries in the world. As we will hopefully demonstrate in the next few pages, cyclicality should not be detrimental to strong returns and long-term earnings growth provided it is approached with the right strategy and culture. The semiconductor industry has been an extraordinary sector to have exposure to, growing at ~8% per year for the past 40 years. This growth trajectory has been propelled by exponential innovation and the integral role semiconductors have come to play in our daily lives. However, not all segments within this thriving industry offer the same stability or longevity. History shows that many former chip industry leaders such as Fairchild, Motorola, and Philips no longer exist today. These fallen titans focused largely on digital or logic chips – the "brains" behind electronic devices. Developing the brains of a computer inherently pits you in a never-ending cutthroat race to bring the newest technology to market. Recent investor enthusiasm around GPU chip developers once again highlights a common investor preference for chasing the winners within these fast-moving subsegments. We prefer to spend our time differently. An often overlooked yet indispensable part of the semiconductor industry are analog chips. There are no fast-paced products found here. In fact, the first analog chip – an amplifier designed by Fairchild in 1964 – still sells billions of units annually (see below). These analog chips go into virtually everything. In contrast to digital semiconductors, which process binary information (0 or 1), analog semiconductors condition analog information which is continuous. This information is best thought of as 'real world' signals, like temperature, sound, pressure, and electrical current. Analog chips are thus often used in conjunction with sensors as well as any system using power. But not all analog chips are created equal. An intuitive way to think about an analog chip is to consider a dimmable lamp. Chances are you have seen one flicker at certain ranges. Similarly, you have heard a radio make white noise or heard microphone feedback on a video call. These imperfections might be acceptable for simple lamps or radios, but medical equipment, airplanes or the hundreds of battery cells in your EV require highly precise signal conditioning. These are the chips that Texas Instruments, Analog Devices and Infineon develop. Despite its use-cases being seemingly simple, high-performance analog chips are often not. In fact, they are more difficult to design than GPUs. When you amplify a continuous signal, there will always be some noise in the signal itself which will be amplified along with the signal. An analog designer will try to create a differentiated amplifier which manages this signal-to-noise ratio, or an amplifier which filters out certain frequency ranges while amplifying others. Such requirements do not come for free – power consumption might increase or the device will become slower. Trading off certain specifications to create a high-performance device requires designers to have deep knowledge of circuits as well as fundamental electronics/physics. It also involves a lot of intuition. In addition, a broad analog chip portfolio requires you to have at least 50,000 SKUs (a car might contain a thousand analog SKUs), whereas digital chipmakers often only have a handful. The complexity of design and breadth required is part of the reason why the leading analog companies several decades ago not only continue to dominate today, but have consolidated their market significantly. Texas Instruments ("TI") is the largest analog company globally. It has not always been that way. In the 50s, TI invented the first silicon transistor and several years later TI's young engineer Jack Kilby co-invented the semiconductor chip, for which he received a Nobel prize. On the back of this innovation, TI became one of the largest producers of chips in the world, and ventured into consumer electronics, communication equipment and even missiles. In the 90s mobile phones started to surge, to which TI became the key supplier. Nokia's global dominance in mobile phones made TI heavily dependent on this partnership, but the decline of Nokia's handset business in the late 2000s severely impacted TI's business. After the decline of the Nokia handset business, which had reached ~20% of revenue, TI completely revised its corporate strategy. The company shifted its focus toward analog chips with multi-year or even multi-decade product cycles, in contrast to mobile phones which change every year. Every R&D project was required to demonstrate a clear and measurable return, which for TI meant standardized chips with applicability across products and sectors. The company prioritised sectors with fragmented customers bases for these long-lived products, like automotive, factory automation and defence. TI also started communicating its stated goal, "growth of FCF per share over the long-term". Over the years TI made more changes to further strengthen its competitive advantages. Besides long-lived positions and a broad portfolio, TI started to cut out distributors to reach its customers directly. It also started to vertically integrate its supply chain, manufacturing the vast majority of chips in-house. Today, industry associations state TI has ~20% market share in analog chips. We believe this framing oversimplifies the reality of the market. Analog chipmakers are not competing with each other in large parts of their portfolios. TI chose to focus on catalog or standardized analog chips, where most peers like Analog Devices chose to deploy R&D dollars into customised chips which will only be used for one product and customer. Many analog players also still focus on consumer end-markets, where quality and safety requirements are lower. Peers are also increasingly relying on distributors for customer reach instead of cutting them out, and are outsourcing most incremental manufacturing capacity to foundries instead of vertically integrating. Why does TI do everything so differently from its peers? Most people think that TI's market power comes from the large portfolio of analog chips it maintains. While having 80,000 products that take years to design is necessary, we think that TI's market power comes from its focus combined with operational excellence. All the above decisions TI made, but its peers diverged away from, tie into TI's decision to focus on catalog analog products. Catalog products are high-volume, off the shelf and generally applicable. Manufacturing those products internally at scale is very sensible due to high investment requirements and a large fixed-cost base, whereas manufacturing a custom Bose audio chip is not. Catalog chips can also be kept in inventory for years, sometimes decades, making underutilisation of a fab's manufacturing capacity a smaller problem (in downcycles TI can continue producing its catalog parts for inventory). TI offers a broad portfolio of those chips as they are generally applicable and sells them to a wide range of customers for whom TI can deliver all standard chips on the board, instead of developing one much higher ASP custom chip. TI wants to be 90% for 50 customers instead of 100% for one. TI makes very high quality products, but is not an innovation leader. New projects will not be greenlit if (i) the product cannot be manufactured at scale, and (ii) the product does not have broad appeal to many customers with minimal support from the company. Besides focus, operational excellence is crucial for this strategy for two reasons. First, 'fabs' are simply very difficult to run. Peers increasingly say they prefer outsourcing manufacturing to foundries for flexibility, but in reality they often struggled with manufacturing the chips themselves. TI has consistently executed building and running its fabs. It regularly completes construction ahead of schedule. The only other company in the world that can finish fab construction early is TSMC, whose founder coincidentally was previously one of TI's most senior executives. Both TI and TSMC achieve this from an extremely process-driven and lean way of working. TI's absolute SG&A and R&D expenses were flat between 2012 and 2022 while gross profit doubled. Insourcing manufacturing and distribution will allow the company to further reap the benefits of its operational excellence. It will be very difficult for other analog companies to follow TI's path. A modern greenfield catalog fab requires $5bn annual revenue to run optimally, which respectively only TI and ADI generate. Distributors are incentivised to sell high absolute value parts to customers, less so the catalog parts TI sells. Only TI's catalog-focused peers could consider cutting distributors, but for most peers distribution has risen to over half of revenue now. A focus on industrial and automotive end-markets is something other analog players are trying, but it does require a large number of chip designers (which are scarce) as well as investment in safety and reliability testing for tens of thousands of SKUs. Regulatory-driven qualification and quality requirements are extremely high compared to consumer electronics. Automotive-grade products (which is an industry standard) have to demonstrate zero "DPM" or defects per million chips. Chips need to be able to operate for 25 years and between -40° and 125° Celsius (commercial grade is typically 0-70° Celsius). At chip-level, qualification will cost $100k or more for a single SKU. Every individual chip used in critical automotive applications are reliability-tested for 1,000 to 5,000 hours by the semiconductor manufacturer. It takes significant time and investment resources to build such a portfolio, and volume to justify it as TI's average chip costs $0.40. During the 2010s TI underinvested in its manufacturing capacity, meaning that by 2020 it was running close to fully utilized. The pandemic triggered enormous analog chip shortages. The semiconductor industry is notoriously cyclical. Capacity expansion has long lead times, while demand changes can be very sudden. Different layers in the value chain place double orders and build inventory, which inevitably has to be digested. In the beginning of the pandemic, automotive OEMs were quick to cut chip orders, while at the same time demand for computers, peripherals and electronics surged. When demand for cars rebounded faster than expected and automotive OEMs started double or triple-ordering chips, the industry had no capacity to respond quickly (which was further exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic). TI was already tight on capacity, and the largest analog chipmaker in the world was forced to forgo billions of dollars of potential revenue. In analysing this mistake, TI's management realized that given the longevity of their product, the opportunity cost of several months of missed sales is larger than several years of underutilised manufacturing capacity. TI thus initiated its largest capex cycle while the industry would go into one of its largest cyclical downcycles in its history, digesting the abnormal pandemic-driven upcycle – which exceptionally even troughed below the previous cycle bottom (see below). This was not taken well by the market, which usually dislikes spending while earnings are down. In our view, this capex cycle presents a reinvestment opportunity which will generate abnormal marginal returns for long-term shareholders like us. Analog fabs have a lifespan of multiple decades. TI is currently closing two fabs it built in the 70s. Importantly, ~70% of analog chips are manufactured in East Asia. TI is constructing multiple new fabs in Texas as well as Utah. In today's geopolitical world having US-based chipmaking capacity is a large asset, as companies like Apple, the defence industry and carmakers aim to source more locally. TI is expanding its domestic capacity ahead of the upcoming semiconductor upcycle, even if that means underutilisation in the short term. Unlike its peers, TI is deferring short-term profits for long-term benefit. As a rule of thumb, a $5bn capex analog fab will generate $5bn revenue per year for at least 30 years. At TI's superior cash flow margins this translates to a very favourable return on investment for those that can do it. Insourcing manufacturing also allows TI to reinvest all of its generated cash flows at attractive marginal returns, while peers outsourcing manufacturing to foundries are distributing generated cash to shareholders at lower returns. Deferring the short-term for the long-term is an important indicator of founder's mindset. TI is investing in its capacity now to support its FCF per share growth in the future. The company has also displayed capital allocation discipline in exiting lower quality businesses, pursuing only those that work for them. Moreover, TI consistently resists the temptation of custom contracts if the R&D cannot be spread across multiple products, meanwhile it continues to trade off short term profits by reducing its use of distributors in order to improve reach to customers in the long-term. As stated, these actions are in stark contrast to most peers, many of whom in our view portray less evidence of founder's mindset. TI's decisions breathe discipline, which can be seen across all layers of the organization. The company's sole purpose is to strengthen its competitive advantages to drive FCF per share growth in the long-term, as endlessly repeated by its CEO. Before we conclude, we wanted to write a quick word on the events that took place on Liberation Day and how they might have impacted TI. As the tension between China and the US escalated in the following days TI's advantage as the only analog chipmaker with US manufacturing capacity suddenly seemed to move into a disadvantage, although many details remained unclear. For example, would tariffs be imposed on where wafers are manufactured, or where chips are packaged and tested (by and large in Asia)? And what about tariffs on car components containing chips that already had tariffs imposed on them? Upon further analysis and conversations with the company in the weeks following Liberation Day we learned that TI could manufacture most of its chips for Chinese customers in its German, Japanese and Chinese fabs. Also, the interest in TI's US capacity has increased significantly as geopolitical instability is triggering reviews of supply chain vulnerabilities. TI is uniquely positioned to answer to this new need, and we have confidence management will continue to position the company to take advantage of it for the long-term. We believe TI's focus and operational excellence have put the company in a unique position to generate sustained free cash flow growth while adding significant incremental value to their customers. The company's employees think like long-term owners throughout the organization, which allows them to make decisions and take actions its peers are not able to. Management's clarity of communication on what their competitive advantages are and how they plan to reinforce those is something we rarely see as investors. We think that TI will be an exceptional business that can generate earnings growth of more than 12% per year while returning most of its free cash flow to shareholders. Looking through cycles and market volatility, we can expect low to mid-teens real IRR after assuming a fair amount of multiple compression. Finding these types of returns in a business as well managed and as resilient as TI is a gift that we gladly accept and we plan to hold for many years.

BSD Analysis:
Zeno presents a compelling long-term bull case for Texas Instruments centered on the company's dominant position in analog semiconductors and strategic focus on catalog products. The manager argues that TI's competitive moat stems from its operational excellence in manufacturing, direct customer relationships, and broad portfolio of standardized analog chips serving industrial and automotive markets with stringent quality requirements. TI's current capacity expansion cycle, while pressuring near-term margins, positions the company to capitalize on the next semiconductor upcycle with domestically-manufactured chips amid rising geopolitical tensions. The fund highlights TI's disciplined capital allocation and management's unwavering focus on free cash flow per share growth as key differentiators versus peers who chase custom solutions or outsource manufacturing. Management expects TI to generate 12%+ annual earnings growth while returning most free cash flow to shareholders. The investment thesis rests on TI's ability to compound returns through cyclical downturns by leveraging its manufacturing scale, product longevity, and founder-like mentality. Zeno projects low-to-mid teens real IRRs over the long term, viewing the current cyclical trough as an attractive entry point for a multi-decade holding.

Pitch Summary:
The futures exchange industry, as we know it today, is an essential, highly sophisticated, and technologically advanced market where participants across the globe can manage or speculate on a wide variety of risks. This is achieved through the instantaneous execution of futures contracts on underlying assets ranging from commodities to financial instruments. The origins of futures trading trace back to ancient Greek and Phoenician merchants, who used simple forward agreements to manage risks associated with transporting and trading goods. Modern futures exchanges, however, were established in 19th-century America in response to extreme seasonal fluctuations and price volatility in agricultural markets. The development of canals and railroads around Chicago in 1848 turned the city into a crucial hub for agricultural trade, leading to the creation of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which standardised contracts and facilitated more efficient and transparent trading. In 1898, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was founded, expanding on existing institutions to cover a wider range of commodities. Both exchanges grew in prominence throughout the 20th century, becoming central components of US and global financial markets. The CME demutualised in 2000, went public in 2002, and later merged with CBOT in 2007, forming the CME Group - now the largest futures exchange in the world. From its beginnings as a small agricultural exchange in Chicago, CME Group has grown into the global risk management backbone - effectively becoming the world's "risk bookmaker." Today, CME's product offering spans across multiple asset classes, with major futures and options contracts in interest rates, equity indices, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, and foreign exchange. Across all these markets, CME facilitates seamless and transparent trading, providing price discovery while eliminating counterparty risk through its central clearinghouse. Clients range from businesses seeking to hedge operational exposures (e.g. commodity prices, interest rates, currency risk) to professional speculators, such as hedge funds, market makers, trading firms and sophisticated retail traders. Clients are incentivised to trade on an exchange that has a strong reputation, offers the specific product they require, and - most importantly - has the lowest cost of execution. Cost to transact is a function of liquidity, bid-ask spreads, margin requirements, and contract fees. These dynamics create a "winner-takes-all" effect: contracts with higher volumes become more attractive, which draws in more participants, leading to even greater liquidity and lower costs. This positive feedback loop entrenches CME's dominance in key contracts. Moreover, since futures contracts are non-interchangeable and cannot be settled across different exchanges, a successful contract typically enjoys near-monopoly status within its risk category. The vertical integration of execution and clearing further reinforces CME's closed-loop system and deepens its network effect - a cornerstone of its long-term competitive advantage. Beyond its strong business model and competitive position, CME Group is also well-positioned to benefit from significant secular growth drivers. The company holds a near-monopoly on trading in US government interest rate futures. Given the expected long-term growth of US government debt markets, CME stands to gain from sustained increases in trading volumes and revenue - at high incremental margins. In parallel, improvements in retail brokerage technology and the introduction of smaller-sized futures contracts have expanded CME's addressable market. A growing class of individual traders, once excluded due to high trading costs, limited platform access, and poor data availability, can now actively participate in futures markets. This emerging segment - the pro-retail trader - represents a meaningful source of future growth. We believe the combination of strong network effects, favourable long-term tailwinds, disciplined capital allocation, and experienced leadership will continue to generate significant shareholder value. Historically, CME has performed exceptionally well during periods of heightened uncertainty; when volatility drives increased trading activity. This positions CME not only as a structural compounder but also as a hedge in periods of market and geopolitical uncertainty, which are seemingly appearing more and more frequently.

BSD Analysis:
Stenham presents a compelling bull case for CME Group, positioning it as the dominant global derivatives exchange with powerful network effects and monopolistic characteristics. The managers emphasize CME's "winner-takes-all" dynamics where higher trading volumes create self-reinforcing liquidity advantages and lower execution costs, entrenching market dominance. They highlight CME's near-monopoly in US government interest rate futures, which should benefit from secular growth in government debt markets at high incremental margins. The thesis centers on multiple growth drivers including the expanding retail trading segment enabled by improved technology and smaller contract sizes. CME's vertical integration of execution and clearing creates a closed-loop system that deepens competitive moats. The managers view CME as both a structural compounder and a hedge during periods of market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Their analysis suggests CME is well-positioned to capitalize on secular tailwinds while maintaining pricing power through its dominant market position.

Pitch Summary:
Holdings in semiconductor supplier SK Hynix, e-commerce company Coupang and Shinhan Bank mean the strategy has an overweight to South Korea, which was itself the strongest performing market in Asia during the quarter, in part due to the resolution of political uncertainty with the presidential election. It was gratifying that our combined selections outperformed even the Korea country benchmark.

BSD Analysis:
The manager holds Shinhan Bank as part of a successful South Korea overweight that has delivered strong outperformance during the quarter. Shinhan Bank benefits from political stability following the presidential election resolution, which has improved sentiment toward Korean financial institutions. As one of South Korea's leading banks, Shinhan is well-positioned to benefit from economic growth and financial sector reforms. The manager's satisfaction with outperforming the Korea country benchmark suggests strong individual stock selection within the banking sector. Korean banks have historically traded at discounts to regional peers, potentially offering value opportunities. The resolution of political uncertainty creates a more predictable regulatory and economic environment for banking operations. Shinhan's strong market position and diversified banking services provide defensive characteristics while benefiting from Korean economic growth. The manager appears confident in both the bank's fundamentals and the broader Korean market opportunity.

Pitch Summary:
Holdings in semiconductor supplier SK Hynix, e-commerce company Coupang and Shinhan Bank mean the strategy has an overweight to South Korea, which was itself the strongest performing market in Asia during the quarter, in part due to the resolution of political uncertainty with the presidential election. It was gratifying that our combined selections outperformed even the Korea country benchmark.

BSD Analysis:
The manager holds Coupang as part of a successful South Korea overweight strategy that has significantly outperformed during the quarter. Coupang benefits from both its position as a leading e-commerce platform in South Korea and the broader positive sentiment toward Korean equities following political stability. The company's strong execution in e-commerce and logistics provides competitive advantages in the Korean market. The manager's emphasis on outperforming the Korea country benchmark suggests confidence in individual stock selection, with Coupang being a key contributor. The resolution of political uncertainty has created a more favorable operating environment for Korean companies. Coupang's dominant market position and logistics capabilities position it well for continued growth in Korean e-commerce. The manager appears to view South Korea as an attractive market with Coupang as a high-quality way to gain exposure.

Pitch Summary:
Holdings in semiconductor supplier SK Hynix, e-commerce company Coupang and Shinhan Bank mean the strategy has an overweight to South Korea, which was itself the strongest performing market in Asia during the quarter, in part due to the resolution of political uncertainty with the presidential election. It was gratifying that our combined selections outperformed even the Korea country benchmark.

BSD Analysis:
The manager maintains a bullish stance on SK Hynix as part of a broader South Korea overweight strategy that has delivered strong results. SK Hynix benefits from both company-specific fundamentals as a leading memory semiconductor supplier and favorable country-level dynamics in South Korea. The resolution of political uncertainty through presidential elections has provided a supportive backdrop for Korean equities. The manager's satisfaction that their Korean stock selections outperformed even the country benchmark suggests strong individual stock picking within the region. SK Hynix is positioned to benefit from memory chip demand recovery and AI-related semiconductor growth. The company's technology leadership in DRAM and NAND flash memory provides competitive advantages in a consolidating industry. The manager's overweight to South Korea appears to be a high-conviction regional allocation that has paid off significantly.

Pitch Summary:
UK-listed private equity company 3i, whose investment in Dutch hard-discount retailer Action continued to combine strong like-for-likes with consistent store rollout execution across continental Europe

BSD Analysis:
The manager views 3i favorably based on the strong performance of its key portfolio company Action, a Dutch hard-discount retailer. Action's success is driven by two key metrics: strong like-for-like sales growth and successful store expansion across continental Europe. This combination suggests both organic growth from existing stores and successful geographic expansion, indicating a scalable business model. The consistent execution of store rollouts demonstrates management's operational capabilities and the retailer's ability to replicate its format across different European markets. For 3i as the private equity owner, this performance likely translates to significant value creation in one of its major portfolio investments. The manager's positive commentary suggests confidence in 3i's investment selection and value creation capabilities. This appears to be a high-conviction position benefiting from European retail consolidation trends.

Pitch Summary:
naval defence company Babcock, which benefitted from growing overseas as well as UK domestic demand for its expertise in defence leading to an upgrade to medium-term targets

BSD Analysis:
The manager highlights Babcock as a key contributor to quarterly outperformance, driven by expanding demand for defense capabilities both domestically in the UK and internationally. The company has demonstrated strong execution in capturing growing defense spending, particularly in naval defense expertise. Management's upgrade to medium-term targets suggests confidence in sustained demand and the company's ability to capitalize on geopolitical tensions driving defense budget increases. The position reflects the manager's conviction in defense contractors benefiting from increased global military spending. Babcock's specialized naval defense capabilities provide competitive advantages in a sector experiencing structural tailwinds. The upgrade to targets indicates improving visibility on contract wins and revenue growth. This appears to be a core holding benefiting from both cyclical and structural defense spending trends.

Pitch Summary:
MOD – Since our introduction of this new holding last quarter, Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) has continued to execute effectively under CEO Neil Brinker's leadership, leveraging the Danaher Business System (DBS) playbook to drive robust performance. Despite offering a wider than expected initial guidance range for FY 2026 due to difficult to forecast macro conditions at the time of reporting last quarter, the company still expects to sustain attractive topline growth which can be leveraged into mid-teens earnings growth in coming years. These financial results should be supported in part by durable demand for its data center cooling products in its Climate Solutions segment as well as sizeable margin enhancements in its slower growing Performance Technology segment. The transformation, now four years in under CEO Brinker, is off to a promising start as the company continues to move its mix of business units into higher return, more attractive end markets. Thus far, management has proven adept at targeting smart tuck-in acquisitions in high growth end markets where it can leverage its climate control technological expertise while also pruning its portfolio of businesses by parting ways with business units serving less attractive end markets. Some parallels can be drawn by examining the long-term success of companies like Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP), given a shared philosophical view in how the application of a lean and Kaizen focused operational playbook can be supplemented with smart acquisitions informed by the 80/20 philosophy to shape an attractive portfolio of businesses. The $100M share repurchase program, initiated last quarter, should enable the company to capitalize on the stock's current trading multiple of ~16x NTM P/E, a valuation which should prove attractive given the long-horizon growth opportunity in front of the company.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a transformation story centered on CEO Neil Brinker's application of the Danaher Business System to drive operational excellence and strategic portfolio optimization. The four-year transformation focuses on shifting the business mix toward higher-return end markets while leveraging climate control expertise through smart acquisitions and divestitures. Key growth drivers include durable demand for data center cooling products in the Climate Solutions segment and margin expansion in Performance Technology. The manager draws parallels to Roper Technologies' successful playbook of combining lean operations with strategic acquisitions guided by 80/20 principles. Despite macro uncertainty leading to wider guidance ranges, management expects sustained topline growth translating to mid-teens earnings growth. At 16x forward P/E, the valuation appears attractive given the long-term growth opportunity and ongoing transformation. The $100M share repurchase program provides additional capital allocation discipline and demonstrates management confidence in the business model and valuation opportunity.

Pitch Summary:
MGNI – Market volatility and economic concerns were the primary forces pushing MGNI to trade in such a wide range during the first half of the year, as markets briefly priced severe cuts to ad budgets into the stock. As economic storm clouds lifted, evidence began to emerge that ad budgets largely remain intact relative to prior expectations, and though the company suspended its guidance for the second half of the year, it seems its prior views will likely be sustained. Aside from positive channel checks, encouraging peer reports and general news of resilient ad spending, perhaps more interestingly, these checks suggest that advertiser television ad budgets now favor CTV (i.e., streaming) over traditional linear TV, a shift in advertiser TV budgets long underway that has reached the critical equilibrium mark. Netflix is of course some part of this, as their advertising efforts continue to gain scale, but the tide is also turning more broadly. The company's recent earnings call also produced some noteworthy data points, as management highlighted the benefits of potential market share gains should the DOJ force any remedies on Google as a result of the ad tech trial ruling issued in April. The remedies trial remains set for September 22nd. Developments there will likely be contested and remain somewhat unpredictable. A second ad tech trial will soon start in August in Texas, which is also likely to have some ramifications on potential outcomes. Suffice it say, court filings and testimony transcripts make for interesting reading, and we are tracking developments closely. For now, and until further news breaks, it is encouraging to see the company continuing to announce a steady stream of new customer wins, recently adding Amazon, Pinterest, Redfin and Paramount Australia to a customer list that has been growing impressively lately.

BSD Analysis:
The manager views MGNI's recent volatility as creating an attractive entry opportunity rather than reflecting fundamental deterioration. The thesis rests on the structural shift from linear TV to Connected TV (CTV) advertising, which has reached a critical inflection point where advertiser budgets now favor streaming over traditional television. This secular tailwind benefits Magnite as a leading independent sell-side advertising platform. The manager sees resilient advertising spending despite economic concerns, with channel checks and peer reports supporting stable demand. A key catalyst is the potential DOJ antitrust action against Google, which could force remedies that benefit independent ad tech players like Magnite through market share gains. The company continues to win high-profile customers including Amazon, Pinterest, Redfin, and Paramount Australia, demonstrating competitive strength. While regulatory outcomes remain uncertain, the combination of secular CTV growth, stable ad spending, potential Google remedies, and strong customer momentum creates multiple paths to outperformance from current levels.

Pitch Summary:
GENI – The digital gaming rights provider continues to execute as expected with several favorable developments recently occurring. In June, the NFL re-upped and extended its data rights deal with GENI to 2029, well in advance of the 2027 expiration date of the previously existing agreement. Genius also recently secured an exclusive data rights deal with the NCAA through 2032. Together, these data rights deals, as well as the lion's share of data rights deals which were renewed last year, give the company a great deal of visibility into its data costs going forward, paving the way for future incremental revenues to flow through to the bottom line at very attractive incremental margins going forward. With sports-betting now legal in Brazil, legalization in a handful of meaningful U.S. states still to come and a trend that favors continued growth in in-game betting where the company generates a higher take rate on bets placed, incremental revenue opportunities should continue to follow at a healthy pace in a market that itself should continue to grow at a low-double digit rate. Ad revenues are also quickly emerging as meaningful source of new revenues, with Genius's nascent FanHub engine producing another attractive revenue stream for advertisers seeking to tie ads directly to specific players. Recently the company has stated it is now targeting a 30% EBITDA margin by 2030, a step higher from the prior target of 25%. With strong incremental margins and attractive topline growth likely near 20% for the next several years, the company looks set to grow EBITDA at a ~30%+ CAGR for the next several years. This financial algorithm will sustain the company solidly into the Rule of 40 club (which sums EBITDA margins and revenue growth) for the foreseeable future where most peers trade at 6x sales or better. Today trading at less than 4x sales and at an increasingly wide valuation disparity relative to larger peer Sportsradar Group (SRAD), it stands to reason strong revenues and incremental profits and greater investor understanding of this company and its duopolistic industry structure will continue to provide tailwinds to shares in time.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling bull case for Genius Sports based on strong contract visibility and expanding market opportunities. The recent NFL contract extension to 2029 and exclusive NCAA deal through 2032 provide significant revenue visibility and demonstrate the company's competitive moat in sports data rights. The thesis centers on multiple growth drivers including sports betting legalization in Brazil and additional U.S. states, increasing in-game betting adoption where GENI earns higher take rates, and emerging advertising revenues through their FanHub platform. Management's raised EBITDA margin target to 30% by 2030 reflects operational leverage potential. With projected 20% revenue growth and 30%+ EBITDA CAGR, the company should maintain Rule of 40 status while trading at a significant discount to peers at 4x sales versus 6x+ for competitors. The duopolistic industry structure and valuation gap versus Sportsradar suggest meaningful upside potential as the market recognizes the company's competitive positioning and growth trajectory.

Pitch Summary:
The author highlights that Wise delivered strong Q1 2026 volume growth of 24% year-over-year but only modest revenue growth due to an intentional reduction in take rates. This strategy reflects Wise’s long-term philosophy of giving value back to customers rather than maximizing extraction, strengthening its competitive position versus banks. Segment data shows continued growth across personal, business, and platform customers, supported by new partnerships with Raiffeisen Bank and UniCredit. Despite posting 11% underlying income growth—below the 15–20% guidance—the company still expects to meet full-year targets. Management reiterated its ambition to become the global network for money movement, reinforced by a proposed dual listing in the U.S. and U.K. Card and other revenue grew 32%, showing diversification as cross-border monetization declines. Overall, the pitch frames Wise as a long-term compounder with structural tailwinds, expanding customer bases, and an increasingly global footprint.

BSD Analysis:
Wise’s strategy of lowering take rates reflects a deliberate attempt to maximize customer adoption and cement long-term network effects rather than near-term revenue per transaction. This positions the company competitively within cross-border payments, where traditional banks maintain high fees and slow settlement times. However, compressing monetization requires Wise to scale volumes and ancillary revenue streams to preserve margin structure. Card revenue growth of 32% suggests progress in building a multi-product payments ecosystem, which could offset declining economics in simple remittances. The partnership strategy with European banks signals an ambition to embed Wise infrastructure into incumbent financial institutions, a potentially powerful distribution advantage. Still, regulatory complexity, competitive pressures from fintechs and banks, and margin compression remain key risks. The proposed U.S. listing could broaden the shareholder base and lower cost of capital, but does not change underlying unit economics. Long-term, the investment case depends on Wise’s ability to leverage scale, grow pla_x000D_

Actual Post Content:
Wise $WISE.L Q1 2026 are out! Here’s what you need to know 🧵. 1) Wise’s cross-border volumes grew 24% Y/Y. Meanwhile, their cross-border revenue only grew 2%. How so? Wise is actively lowering their take rate, from 0.64% in Q1 2025 to 0.52% last quarter. This is a massive 18% decrease! 👏 Wise is playing a completely different games than banks and competitors: instead of trying to take as much money as possible, they give a lot of value back to their customers. That’s rare. 2) So, how are their segments progressing: - Personal: number of active customers up 17% (underlying income up 11%) - Business: number of active customers up 15% (underlying income up 12%) - Platforms: two new announced partnerships with Raiffeisen Bank and UniCredit. As the figure below shows, there’s plenty of room to grow for the coming years/decades. 🌎 $WISE.L 3) $WISE.L remains focused on the long-term opportunity and becoming ‘the’ network for the world’s money. While this quarter was at the low end of their guidance of 15-20% underlying income growth, namely 11%, they still expect this to be reachable for FY 2026. 💪🏼 4) CEO Kristo Käärmann about listing in 🇺🇸: “Last month we also announced our proposal to dual list our shares in the US and the UK, with the strategic and capital market benefits positively received by Owners. We believe the addition of a primary US listing will help us accelerate our journey to becoming 'the' network for the world's money, and ensure our mission and the interests of our customers and Owners remain deeply aligned over the long term.” $WISE.L 5) Card and other revenue, a business model of huge importance when the cross-border take rate keeps declining, grew 32% (!) to 103 million GBP. When comparing this to cross border revenues and interest: - Card and other: 103 M GBP (+32%) - Interest: 147 M GBP (+0% Y/Y) - Cross-border: 215 M GBP (+2% Y/Y) $WISE.L One of our analysts, Bouke, is well-versed in the payments industry. He has written three analyses on payments companies (Visa, Adyen, and Wise) and acknowledges that the sector is both interesting from an investor’s point of view as very complex.

URL: https://x.com/DutchInvestors/status/1945864966885556625

Pitch Summary:
The author is short NerdWallet, arguing that the company faces structural headwinds in its core lead-generation business across credit cards, mortgages, and insurance. While management is attempting to diversify into wealth management and other verticals, the author believes these efforts do little to change the underlying dependence on traffic-driven referral economics. Web traffic trends are declining, and the author sees rate-comparison tools and basic financial education as easily commoditized by LLMs, with traffic eventually bypassing intermediaries entirely. Insurance performance looks temporarily strong due to a spike in auto-insurer marketing budgets, but the author views this as unsustainable. Capital allocation also concerns them, with ongoing M&A spend and significant software capitalization reducing true free-cash-flow generation. Even assuming 2025 adjusted EBITDA of ~$120M, the author estimates true FCF of only $10–20M annually. Discounting their projected FCF stream at 8% yields an equity value implying ~45% downside to ~$5.60/share.

BSD Analysis:
From a fundamental standpoint, NerdWallet operates in a highly competitive and largely undifferentiated segment of consumer-finance distribution, where customer acquisition costs, SEO dependency, and shifting traffic patterns dominate economics. The rise of AI-driven recommendation systems threatens intermediaries whose value proposition is primarily content plus comparison tools, as LLMs compress information asymmetry and potentially reroute consumer flow directly to endpoints. The company’s pivot toward wealth and insurance advisory suggests an attempt to broaden its platform, but these categories have incumbent competitors, regulatory burdens, and potentially lower incremental margins. Persistent reliance on M&A to sustain growth raises questions about organic trajectory, especially as capitalized software and stock-based compensation obscure underlying cash generation. The author’s FCF math highlights the concern: meaningful EBITDA but limited conversion due to reinvestment needs. Without credible evidence of traffic stabilization or a differentiated user-acquisition model, the business could structurally under-earn. NerdWallet also lacks network effects strong enough to resist AI-driven disintermediation. While the balance sheet is not a near-term risk and borrow costs remain low, the medium-term risk/reward tilts negative until the company proves it can grow without aggressive capital outlays. The bear case hinges on both cyclical (auto insurance marketing normalization) and secular (AI commoditization) pressures converging simultaneously.

Actual Post Content:
I am short $NRDS PT ~5.6/sh for 45% downside. NRDS seems to be at least attempting to diversify its business into wealth management and other verticals besides lead gen for insurance, credit card, and mortgages. I like they that they are being a bit offensive. Insurance could do pretty well because it seems that the auto insurers are spending a lot on marketing and that could continue, but at the end of the day it still functions like the mortgage and credit card business ie They get paid by the vendor to direct customers to that vendor's website/services and they also get paid a success fee of some sort. What i see is web traffic declines across its business and an unclear future for insurance. I see the value of rate comparisons and financial education as low quality services that are likely to be commodtized by LLM tools. Already chatgpt has this capability and web traffic will probably accrue to LLMs and then directly to the end vendor. And insurance simply seems boosted by a big jump in marketing budget by auto insurers but that may not continue and will be harder to comp next year, but this is not enough to hold up the fundamentals sustainably. They spend on M&A, I'll estimate they'll need around 25m a year (last acquisition was 120m in 2022, and recently an IRA firm but undisclosed terms) --- average is like 30m a year. They also capitalize software of about 22m a year that's not in the adjusted ebitda figure. One way or the other between M&A and capitalized software its looking like 55-60m a year, which makes sense vs D&A of 50m a year. WC and PPE is minimal I estimate around 5-8m a year. Stock comp is about 33m. If adjusted EBITDA is around 120m in 2025, FCF is looking like it will be somewhere between 10-20m. Counter-arguement is that FCF is much higher without M&A, but of course I'd expect the business to decline quickly without M&A. Given the headwinds in the business and the expected required capital that I estimate is needed to continue growing, I think best case is that 15m FCF grows at a 4-5% rate. Unless the business can acquire itself out of their woes, an 8% discount rate on this cash stream yields an NPV of about 430m -- 45% downside from here. Short interest is around 5%, borrow fee just .6% and no dividend. Don't see any big upside catalysts near-term. They need to show stabilizing trends across their non-insurance businesses and right now just don't see that happening next Q or longer-term. I'll make this about 4% of the short book as i continue analyzing and monitoring.

URL: https://x.com/fierce__beast/status/1945889758779175194?s=43&t=pQIybbYGPwfAIRjp-OZu8w

Pitch Summary:
The author argues that Galaxy Digital is uniquely positioned to profit from speculative alt-coin rallies across multiple business lines. Their Global Markets division captures bid–ask spreads, trading gains, and volatility-driven opportunities when meme coins and low-liquidity tokens spike. Galaxy’s large digital-asset loan book benefits during bull markets, as collateral values rise and interest accrues with minimal liquidations. The company also earns staking commissions and yield-based fees, magnifying revenue when alt-coin prices surge. Galaxy’s balance-sheet exposure to early-stage tokens allows treasury gains when volatile assets appreciate. Additionally, its venture arm realizes large multiples on early-stage token investments when they begin trading. By combining trading, lending, staking, treasury, and venture activities, Galaxy’s earnings power is tightly levered to speculative crypto cycles, making it a prime beneficiary of bull markets in alt-coins.

BSD Analysis:
Galaxy Digital represents a diversified crypto-financial infrastructure platform whose revenue drivers span trading, capital markets, asset management, lending, and venture investing. Structurally, it resembles a hybrid between a prime broker, market-maker, and alternative-asset manager — all tied to digital-asset volatility. This multi-segment exposure creates a convex earnings profile: when speculative activity rises, Galaxy benefits disproportionately relative to pure-play exchanges or custodians. Its lending franchise adds recurring yield, though it also introduces counter-party and collateral-value risks that spike in downcycles. Market-making and derivatives activities give Galaxy a strong competitive position, but also expose it to liquidity shocks and tail-risk events common in crypto markets. The firm’s venture investments can generate outsized gains, but also create highly variable and non-linear earnings. A key structural advantage is Galaxy’s ability to monetize volatility itself, rather than requiring sustained asset appreciation. However, regulatory uncertainty across the U.S. and Canada remains a material overhang, and crypto-credit cycles can be brutally pro-cyclical. Overall, Galaxy offers high-beta exposure to speculative crypto activity, with significant upside in exuberant markets but equally meaningful downside in risk-off regimes.

Actual Post Content:
$GLXY Most important nugget IMO Whenever you see one of these dumb alt-coins 10X Galaxy most likely is profiting more than anyone else. Galaxy profits handsomely whenever speculative alt-tokens “go to the moon” by leveraging virtually every part of its crypto infrastructure: Principal Trading & Market-Making Galaxy’s Global Markets desk acts as both counterparty and liquidity provider, buying and selling large pools of tokens (including low-liquidity “shitcoins”) and pocketing the bid–ask spread. In Q1 2025 alone, Global Markets generated $43.2 million of adjusted gross profit from these activities. Their quantitative trading strategies and derivatives desks are set up to harvest explosive volatility: when a meme-coin rallies 50–100% in a day, Galaxy’s algos and veteran traders capture a significant slice of those moves. Lending & Structured Financing Galaxy’s average digital-asset loan book was roughly $874 million in Q1, earning interest on margin loans collateralized by all manner of tokens from BTC to tiny governance coins (PR Newswire). As prices surge, liquidations are rare (and highly profitable), while ongoing interest accrues. That turbo-charges revenue in bull phases. Staking & Yield Services Through Asset Management & Infrastructure Solutions, Galaxy earns commission on staking rewards and on-chain yield. They had about $2.34 billion worth of assets under stake at quarter-end, generating $21.6 million of adjusted gross profit in Q1 2025. When even small alt-tokens spike, the underlying staking rewards and performance fees climb in dollar terms. Balance-Sheet & Treasury Gains A portion of Galaxy’s own treasury is held in a basket of altcoins and early-stage tokens. When a token moons, unrealized gains boost their non-GAAP earnings and can be realized via partial sell-downs. Early-Stage Venture Investments Galaxy Ventures invests in nascent protocols and tokens at seed or private sale prices. As those tokens list and surge, Galaxy can exit at multiples—often many times their initial cost basis. Together, these interlocking businesses ensure that whenever a speculative token run occurs—be it a memecoin frenzy or a DeFi governance spike—Galaxy captures massive profits across trading, lending, staking, treasury management, and venture exits.

URL: https://x.com/pennycheck/status/1945859093245432085

Pitch Summary:
The author contends that despite Zett being very cheap on book value and earnings — and having a substantial cash & securities cushion — the company recently used proceeds from a sale not for buybacks or shareholder returns but to buy more securities, and they appear to be renewing anti-takeover provisions. These facts suggest weak capital-allocation discipline and limit the potential for value realization. As a result, the author declines to invest, putting Zett on the watchlist.

BSD Analysis:
Though Zett appears as a deep-value candidate — small market cap, large cash/securities relative to market cap, consistent profitability — the key risk is capital-allocation discipline and shareholder-value realization. Without a credible mechanism (dividends, buybacks, internal restructuring, or liquidation) to unlock its net-asset value, the discount to book could persist indefinitely. Also, its business (sports equipment manufacturing & wholesale) is subject to cyclicality, demand fluctuation, and competitive pressure. For a value investor seeking margin-of-safety and eventual catalyst, Zett remains speculative. Only a structural change (e.g., governance reform or concerted capital return) would justify a long-term position.

Actual Post Content:
Here’s another dirt cheap Japanese stock that I passed on. Zett Corp ($8135.T). Maker of sports equipment (baseballs, gloves etc) with a $56m market cap. Trades below 0.6x book and <3x earnings with 160% of its market cap in cash and securities. Not a great business but has been consistently profitable and cash flow positive for past decade. Zett targets a 40% payout ratio and recently raised dividend by more than 2x. It also sold a large chunk of its share holdings in 2025, posting a large extraordinary gain. Sounds good on the surface but on closer examination Zett only disposed of its shares in Descente (8114) because that company was taken private in a tender offer. It then used around two thirds of the proceeds to … buy other securities 🤦🏻 Zett has not conducted any share buybacks despite its ludicrously large cash pile. Share register looks relatively open but the company has anti-takeout provisions in place, which it’s in the process of renewing. In the end, this one stays on the watchlist. Too many other opportunities where management is already doing the right thing.

URL: https://x.com/RocksOver/status/1946045632986378744

Pitch Summary:
@DaBao_ introduces Trio Technology as a fast-growing Taiwanese inductor manufacturer serving high-performance electronics customers including Nvidia, AMD, and (indirectly) Apple. Despite operating in a fragmented $8.3B global inductor market, Trio differentiates itself through independence, rapid prototyping, and short lead times—traits that appeal to ODMs wary of giant component suppliers like Yageo. Growth is being driven by AI server demand, where inductors must handle higher currents and stricter thermal constraints, boosting both ASP and unit volumes. Revenue grew 38% in the prior year and 23% this year, yet the stock has sharply corrected and now trades below its IPO price. Insider buying by the chairman further reinforces confidence in the company’s trajectory. While the business is somewhat seasonal and PC-heavy, the author views Trio as a compelling growth play with expanding margins and increasing relevance in AI-centric hardware.

BSD Analysis:
Trio Technology occupies an attractive niche in the electronics supply chain, benefiting from secular tailwinds in AI infrastructure and the shift toward higher-power, higher-density system designs. Inductors—though commoditized at lower performance tiers—become critical, specification-driven components in advanced servers and GPUs, giving suppliers with engineering agility meaningful pricing power. The company’s modest scale and independence are strategic advantages in a market where large OEMs value responsiveness and customization. However, customer concentration risk remains high given reliance on PC and server ODM cycles, and the stock’s volatility reflects how quickly sentiment swings in component markets. While insider buying signals conviction, Trio must demonstrate it can scale operations without margin erosion as volumes rise. Competitors like TDK and Yageo have deeper balance sheets, and any aggressive capacity expansion could pressure pricing. Still, given structural growth in AI compute and Trio’s strong early positioning, the medium-term setup is favorable.

Actual Post Content:
6862 Trio Technology, a 🧵: -manufacturer of inductors. Inductors are passive components used in electrical circuits to control current(smooth out spikes) and filter out high-frequency noise. -inductors store energy in a magnetic field when electrical current passes through them(whereas capacitors store energy by accumulating electric charges). -end users include Nvidia(since 09), AMD(11), Apple (under Apple policy they can't disclose this, so typically TW ODMs say they work with a fruit company) -the global market size of inductors is $USD 8.3B and 6862's revenue in 2024 is $USD 74.8M. inductors is highly fragmented, the largest player TDK has a market share of 7.83%. 6862's edge is being independent, able to deliver short lead time/prototyping. While end users might be hesitant to deal with large groups such as Yageo. -customers are PC/server/motherboard ODMs. In AI servers the inductors need to withstand high current and have smaller form factors for heat dissipation, leads to higher ASPs and unit sales. -6862's revenue grew 38% last year and 23% this year, with phenomenal margins. Yet the stock price round-tripped: +110% then -55%. currently it is below the underwritting price. -The chairman has been buying the stock in large quantities since last October(1.64M shares). 1. nearly every electronic/semi co is seasonal with Q3 being the biggest Q 2. I don't see it but 60% of biz is PC related and this year is supposed to be a good year for PC. 3. I didn't bother to look up as this is more of a growth play, I don't focus on divvy as much.

URL: https://x.com/DaBao_/status/1946036767351775396

Pitch Summary:
Taiwan Semiconductor's dominance in leading edge semiconductor manufacturing continues to expand, as shortfalls at Samsung and Intel in the quarter reinforced a current state of monopoly, driving multiple expansion in the back half of the quarter. Beyond its widening lead vs. competition, TSMC posted incredibly robust monthly sales results in April and May, to levels that all but guarantee a 2Q sales beat and upward revisions on earnings expectations. Strong results are primarily related to unmitigated demand for Al accelerators, where TSMC is effectively the sole foundry supplier at this time. The multiple on TSMC stock should also continue to benefit from its accelerated expansion of manufacturing in the United States, which geographically diversifies a growing portion of its leading-edge manufacturing capacity.

BSD Analysis:
TSMC is the irreplaceable foundry for the world’s most advanced chips, powering everything from AI to smartphones to high-performance compute. Its process leadership and scale advantage remain enormous, with customers effectively locked in due to manufacturing complexity. AI accelerators are becoming a major growth driver, absorbing cutting-edge capacity at premium pricing. Geopolitical noise is ever-present, but TSMC’s global expansion into Japan and the U.S. helps mitigate some concentration risk. Margins remain strong because leading-edge wafers are high-value and capacity is perennially tight. No other foundry is close to matching TSMC’s roadmap execution. It is arguably the most strategically important manufacturing company on the planet.