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Pitch Summary:
In early June, United Natural Foods (UNFI) hit a significant speedbump when a cyber-attack shut down most company systems. The outage lasted approximately ten days, but the impact was contained, and systems have resumed activity. The stock remains depressed despite the company confirming their cyber insurance should effectively mitigate event costs. Furthermore, the company accelerated their long-term guidance, showing their busine...
Pitch Summary:
In early June, United Natural Foods (UNFI) hit a significant speedbump when a cyber-attack shut down most company systems. The outage lasted approximately ten days, but the impact was contained, and systems have resumed activity. The stock remains depressed despite the company confirming their cyber insurance should effectively mitigate event costs. Furthermore, the company accelerated their long-term guidance, showing their business transformation is exceeding plan. We’re perplexed that the stock remains at $22 despite the cleared air, after trading above $32 right before the event. This created another ~1% Q2 headwind, but we view the June earnings release and management commentary as the best evidence yet that their turnaround is gaining momentum, not losing it. UNFI will provide a financial update in July to further quantify the cyber attack’s financial impact. We expect them to guide well above the $600M EBTIDA the street currently expects for FY26, while further reducing cyber-attack concerns.
BSD Analysis:
UNFI is the plumbing of the natural and organic food supply chain, with Whole Foods as the anchor tenant and thousands of independents riding shotgun. The extended distribution agreement with Whole Foods into 2032 gives rare long-term visibility, even if that concentration keeps investors twitchy. Margins are wafer-thin because distribution is a scale game, but UNFI’s network of DCs and private-label capabilities offers levers when management gets aggressive on mix and efficiency. Cyber incidents and operational hiccups remind you this is a low-margin, high-complexity logistics business, not a cloud company. Still, as consumers keep shifting toward “better for you” food, volume flows through UNFI’s pipes. The equity works when they prove they can turn that volume into sustainable free cash flow and de-risk the balance sheet. This is a grind-it-out operator where even small efficiency wins matter a lot.
Pitch Summary:
Our most “tariff sensitive” investment, a.k.a. Brands (AKA), historically sourced most products from China. With 145% tariffs on China briefly enacted, their business faced tremendous uncertainty. However, management continued their pattern of strong execution, diversifying sourcing throughout the year to soften future tariff impacts. Their outlook remained largely unaffected, with sales growing and consumer demand staying robust a...
Pitch Summary:
Our most “tariff sensitive” investment, a.k.a. Brands (AKA), historically sourced most products from China. With 145% tariffs on China briefly enacted, their business faced tremendous uncertainty. However, management continued their pattern of strong execution, diversifying sourcing throughout the year to soften future tariff impacts. Their outlook remained largely unaffected, with sales growing and consumer demand staying robust across product lines via new U.S. retail locations and their wholesale deal with Nordstrom. We believe AKA will leverage their scale to achieve double-digit EBITDA margins, generate cash, and ultimately validate management’s incentive awards (earned at 10-20x the current stock price). Despite stellar execution, AKA finished down for the quarter, adding roughly a 1% headwind to returns.
BSD Analysis:
a.k.a. Brands is a portfolio of social-media-native fashion labels selling directly to Gen Z online, which is exactly where the growth is—but also where competition is vicious. Brands like Princess Polly and Culture Kings give it real awareness, yet the whole model lives and dies on fast merchandising cycles and influencer-driven traffic. The company overextended into growth right as the DTC hype cycle cracked, and now it’s in cleanup mode: rationalizing costs, pruning underperforming initiatives, and nursing leverage. If management can stabilize traffic and gross margins while keeping marketing spend under control, earnings power looks very different in a couple of years. But this is a turnaround, not a victory lap—the risk is that the brands age out of relevance faster than the balance sheet heals. Upside is there if the portfolio behaves like a collection of cash-flowing labels rather than a venture experiment. You’re betting on ruthless execution in a noisy category.
Pitch Summary:
Airbus (Long +10%) shares rose as investor concerns over the U.S. tariff impact and the global supply chain disruption moderated. Airbus delivered a solid business update at the Paris Air Show in June, noting a broad-based supply chain improvement which should help support a stronger production ramp up in the second half of 2025 and beyond. The margin on Airbus’ most profitable A320 family of aircraft will continue to improve as la...
Pitch Summary:
Airbus (Long +10%) shares rose as investor concerns over the U.S. tariff impact and the global supply chain disruption moderated. Airbus delivered a solid business update at the Paris Air Show in June, noting a broad-based supply chain improvement which should help support a stronger production ramp up in the second half of 2025 and beyond. The margin on Airbus’ most profitable A320 family of aircraft will continue to improve as larger variants such as the A321XLR continue to gain strong traction from customers. The defence segment of the business is also expected to see faster growth over the long term, given Airbus’ role as a key partner on multiple critical E.U. defence programs and a structural step-up in E.U. defence spending. At the Paris Air Show, Airbus received gross new orders for over 200 aircraft, extending its backlog visibility well beyond 2030. Looking forward, we believe the company will benefit from continued strong demand for its more fuel-efficient aircraft, its leading position in a duopoly market and the structural growth in the European defence sector.
BSD Analysis:
Airbus is the undisputed, high-quality commercial aircraft oligopolist whose stock is a conviction bet on the multi-decade supercycle in air travel demand. The core thesis is driven by narrow-body scarcity, which grants the company exceptional pricing power and visibility into revenue for many years. The company has an order backlog totaling 8,665aircraft (as of September 2025), securing production lines for well over a decade. The growing share of the A321neo and the longer-range A321XLR—which provide higher margins—is set to structurally improve average pricing and profitability.
Pitch Summary:
Qantas (Long +19%) continued its strong share price performance during the quarter as robust trading conditions persisted and the oil price remained at weaker levels (other than a short spike during the Israel-Iran conflict). Qantas shares have now more than doubled from the lows in October 2023, reflecting continued strong earnings delivery, management and board changes and the removal of many ‘pain points’ for customers. On 24 Ju...
Pitch Summary:
Qantas (Long +19%) continued its strong share price performance during the quarter as robust trading conditions persisted and the oil price remained at weaker levels (other than a short spike during the Israel-Iran conflict). Qantas shares have now more than doubled from the lows in October 2023, reflecting continued strong earnings delivery, management and board changes and the removal of many ‘pain points’ for customers. On 24 June, Virgin listed on the ASX. As a listed stock, Virgin will face increased scrutiny of its financial performance, which should encourage rational competitive dynamics going forward.
We believe Qantas remains very well placed over the medium term. It has two well-positioned brands in Qantas and Jetstar that serve their relevant markets strongly. In addition, it operates Australia’s best loyalty business, which is expected to double earnings over the next 5–7 years. Finally, Qantas has a raft of new fuel-efficient aircraft to be delivered, along with Project Sunrise, which will enable direct flights from Melbourne/Sydney to London and New York from 2026.
Despite the large share price rally, Qantas trades on a FY26 P/E of only 9x. This compares to leading international airlines trading at 10–14x P/E. We believe the Qantas multiple fails to fully reflect its leading industry position, the structural growth in Asia-Pacific travel demand and its high growth, capital-light loyalty business.
BSD Analysis:
Qantas Airways is the undisputed, monopolistic Australian airline titan whose stock is a conviction bet on the non-cyclical, post-pandemic recovery of global and domestic air travel. The core moat is its dominant market share and its high-margin Qantas Loyalty program, which provides a stable, predictable revenue stream. The company is successfully executing an unprecedented fleet renewal program, which will drive superior fuel efficiency and operational cost reduction. Qantas is a high-quality compounder whose market dominance and essential role in Australian travel secure its long-term profitability.
Pitch Summary:
Santos (Long +15%) performed well during the quarter primarily driven by a non-binding, indicative cash takeover proposal from a consortium led by ADNOC to purchase Santos for US$5.76/sh (A$8.89/sh). This represents a 28% premium to the share price of Santos prior to the offer. The offer for Santos comes within the backdrop of significant volatility in oil prices, which declined 12% over the quarter, despite momentarily moving shar...
Pitch Summary:
Santos (Long +15%) performed well during the quarter primarily driven by a non-binding, indicative cash takeover proposal from a consortium led by ADNOC to purchase Santos for US$5.76/sh (A$8.89/sh). This represents a 28% premium to the share price of Santos prior to the offer. The offer for Santos comes within the backdrop of significant volatility in oil prices, which declined 12% over the quarter, despite momentarily moving sharply higher on elevated levels of conflict in Iran. The takeover proposal supports our underlying thesis that Santos’ asset base is materially undervalued by the market. The company continues to make significant progress on its key growth initiatives, with its Barossa project now over 95% complete and on track for first production in 2025 and the Pikka project more than 82% complete. The completion of these projects will conclude a multi-year period of elevated capex spend and represents an inflection point for earnings and cashflows. As a result, and regardless of the ultimate outcome of the takeover proposal, we believe Santos remains well positioned to deliver attractive returns for investors.
BSD Analysis:
Santos is a deep-value, high-quality Australian energy pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the long-term, stable demand for natural gas and LNG. The core thesis is driven by its low-cost, long-life natural gas assets and its disciplined approach to deleveraging and capital return. The company is strategically focused on its Barossa gas project and its Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) initiatives, positioning it as a key partner in the energy transition. The stock is an asymmetric value play, leveraging operational efficiency and a strong balance sheet to deliver superior cash flow and shareholder returns.
Pitch Summary:
Viva Energy Group (Long +27%) shares performed strongly driven by an improvement in both Australian retail fuel margins and global refining margins. Retail fuel margins have recovered from the prolonged trough at the start of 2025, and on average, have exceeded 2024 levels during Q2 25. Refining margins have been extremely volatile, having declined sharply on global macroeconomic fears following President Trump’s Liberation Day tar...
Pitch Summary:
Viva Energy Group (Long +27%) shares performed strongly driven by an improvement in both Australian retail fuel margins and global refining margins. Retail fuel margins have recovered from the prolonged trough at the start of 2025, and on average, have exceeded 2024 levels during Q2 25. Refining margins have been extremely volatile, having declined sharply on global macroeconomic fears following President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement in April, then recovering primarily as a result of the escalating conflict in Iran. While Viva’s recent performance and H1 25 guidance have been disappointing, we continue to expect H2 25 to improve significantly, benefiting from acquiring its remaining interest in the Liberty Convenience business, substantial synergies from combining the Coles Express and OTR businesses and its $50m cost-out program. OTR remains a proven, high-quality fuel and convenience retail offering. There is significant earnings upside potential from rolling out OTR across the well-located, but historically under-invested Coles Express sites, with the initial set of conversions performing well. Management have retained their $500m EBITDA target for the Convenience & Mobility business (compared with $231m EBITDA in 2024).
BSD Analysis:
Viva Energy Group is a high-quality, diversified Australian energy pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the non-cyclical demand for transport fuels and its premium retail network. The core moat is its dominance in the Australian market, operating the Geelong Refinery and holding the exclusive license to the Shell retail brand. The company is successfully diversifying its revenue base with the acquisition of the Coles Express convenience store network, which will accelerate its shift to high-margin convenience retail. The stock is a high-quality compounder whose value is secured by essential infrastructure and a superior retail footprint.
Pitch Summary:
Hudbay Minerals (Long +32%) shares rallied over the quarter driven by rising copper and gold prices (+3.8% and +5.5%, respectively), in addition to strong first quarter results. During Q1 25 Hudbay delivered robust operating performance across both its major assets, exceeding consensus expectations. Most notably, gold production from Manitoba in Canada was higher than expected on strong mill performance and higher than anticipated ...
Pitch Summary:
Hudbay Minerals (Long +32%) shares rallied over the quarter driven by rising copper and gold prices (+3.8% and +5.5%, respectively), in addition to strong first quarter results. During Q1 25 Hudbay delivered robust operating performance across both its major assets, exceeding consensus expectations. Most notably, gold production from Manitoba in Canada was higher than expected on strong mill performance and higher than anticipated gold grades. Stronger gold production combined with higher gold prices delivered a ~35% beat to consensus expectations for Q1 25 EBITDA. Hudbay is a mid-tier mining company primarily producing copper, along with gold and zinc, with its key assets located in Canada and Peru. We are attracted to Hudbay due to our positive medium-term outlook for copper and the company’s ability to de-lever its balance sheet and recycle capital back into its highly prospective exploration program and major growth projects. The most exciting near-term opportunity is its fully permitted Copper World project in Arizona, which will increase Hudbay’s copper production by more than 50%.
BSD Analysis:
Hudbay Minerals is a deep-value, copper-focused mining pure-play whose stock is an asymmetric recovery bet on the long-term, structural deficit in copper supply. The core thesis is driven by its massive asset base and low cost operations across North America and South America. The company is a leveraged play on the electrification supercycle—copper is essential for EVs, renewables, and AI data centers. Hudbay is focused on bringing its Copper World project online to significantly boost production and capture the anticipated surge in copper prices.
Pitch Summary:
NexGen Energy (Long +47%) moved higher as spot uranium prices increased 16% during the June quarter to close at US$74/lb. This move largely recovered the Q1 25 spot uranium price decline that had been driven by low volumes and heightened uncertainty associated with U.S. tariff policy. This occurred even as uranium ‘term’ prices (the agreed contracted price representing almost all commercial uranium demand) held largely steady over ...
Pitch Summary:
NexGen Energy (Long +47%) moved higher as spot uranium prices increased 16% during the June quarter to close at US$74/lb. This move largely recovered the Q1 25 spot uranium price decline that had been driven by low volumes and heightened uncertainty associated with U.S. tariff policy. This occurred even as uranium ‘term’ prices (the agreed contracted price representing almost all commercial uranium demand) held largely steady over the last six months. Sentiment notably improved during the quarter as President Trump signed several executive orders aimed at accelerating U.S. nuclear investment, including a target to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity from ~100GW today to 400GW by 2050.NexGen is preparing to develop the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, Arrow, located in Saskatchewan, Canada. This will be a major, new, strategic Western source to address the looming uranium market deficit. The company is about to enter the final stage of Federal approval with a commission hearing expected to conclude in H1 26, following which it can commence full scale project construction. Once developed, Arrow has the potential to generate more than C$2b of cash flow annually, assuming a conservative uranium price. We believe this is a compelling proposition given NexGen’s current market cap of only ~C$5.5b.
BSD Analysis:
NexGen Energy is a pure-play, high-growth uranium developer whose stock is a conviction bet on the multi-decade nuclear renaissance. The core moat is its Arrow Deposit in Saskatchewan, Canada, which is one of the highest-grade, largest-scale uranium deposits globally. The company is strategically positioned to become a major supplier to the accelerating global utility demand for nuclear fuel. NexGen is a leveraged play on the structural tightening of the uranium supply market and the non-cyclical, ESG-driven need for reliable, zero-carbon power.
Pitch Summary:
Finning (TSX:FTT) is the largest Caterpillar dealer globally with diversified exposure by geography, customer base, product and sector. The company has been a strong contributor to LSF performance with the share price up +58% over the calendar year-to-date. The primary catalyst has been Finning’s impressive Q1 25 results, where the company delivered 18% EPS growth over the prior and exceeded consensus estimates by about 15%. Despit...
Pitch Summary:
Finning (TSX:FTT) is the largest Caterpillar dealer globally with diversified exposure by geography, customer base, product and sector. The company has been a strong contributor to LSF performance with the share price up +58% over the calendar year-to-date. The primary catalyst has been Finning’s impressive Q1 25 results, where the company delivered 18% EPS growth over the prior and exceeded consensus estimates by about 15%. Despite the strong share price performance to date, we believe the company remains undervalued, with Finning trading on an FY26 P/E of only 13.2x for a double-digit p.a. EPS growth outlook over the next few years. Finning operates in three key regions: Western Canada (48% of EBIT), South America (43% of EBIT) and UK & Ireland (8% of EBIT) (see Figure 9).
We have followed the company for several years as a key comparable to WesTrac, the leading Caterpillar dealer in the Australian market, which is owned by Seven Group Holdings (SGH). We view WesTrac as the highest quality business within SGH given the strength of its business model, its high ROIC and FCF generation, and the top tier management team driving operations.
We have benefited from WesTrac’s strong performance (EBIT has tripled from 2018 to 2024) through being invested in SGH on several prior occasions in the Fund. We saw many of the same characteristics in our evaluation of Finning which led us to initiate a position earlier this year. However, we believe the market is yet to fully appreciate the transformation Finning has been through and the strong earnings growth outlook under its high quality management team going forward.
BSD Analysis:
Finning International is an indispensable, high-quality heavy equipment dealer whose stock is a conviction bet on the non-cyclical, long-term demand for mining and construction equipment. The core moat is its exclusive Caterpillarmathbfdealership} rights across highly strategic territories (Western Canada, U.K., South America). This grants it a virtual monopoly on essential equipment sales and, more importantly, high-margin parts and service revenue. The stock is a high-quality compounder whose value is secured by the non-discretionary spending of global resource and infrastructure clients.
Pitch Summary:
HCA Healthcare (HCA) is the leading for-profit hospital operator and outpatient services provider in the U.S. In our December 2024 Quarterly Report we outlined our thoughts on why we considered the 25% fall in the share price due to healthcare policy concerns was excessive... Over the first half of 2025 healthcare policy has become clearer and is less negative for HCA than the market had feared. HCA's share price has subsequently i...
Pitch Summary:
HCA Healthcare (HCA) is the leading for-profit hospital operator and outpatient services provider in the U.S. In our December 2024 Quarterly Report we outlined our thoughts on why we considered the 25% fall in the share price due to healthcare policy concerns was excessive... Over the first half of 2025 healthcare policy has become clearer and is less negative for HCA than the market had feared. HCA's share price has subsequently increased materially, and we have sold part of our investment, again to actively manage risk adjusted returns. HCA remains a top ten Fund holding at the end of the June 2025 quarter.
BSD Analysis:
HCA Healthcare is the undisputed, high-quality hospital oligopolist whose stock is a conviction bet on its superior scale and operational efficiency. The core moat is its massive, integrated network of 186 hospitals and 2,000+ sites of care, which grants it significant bargaining power with payers and suppliers. The company is converting its scale into superior financial performance, with Adjusted EBITDA mathbfguidance} raised to $12.8-$13.4 billion. HCA is a defensive compounder, leveraging the non-cyclical demand for healthcare and its operational excellence to deliver predictable, high-quality earnings.
Pitch Summary:
There were no company-specific issues associated with Eagle Materials, but rather the company's share price was impacted by sector concerns regarding a broad softening in U.S. new residential construction conditions. ... Eagle Materials has significant exposure to infrastructure construction where demand conditions remain strong, and commercial construction where operating conditions are patchy but solid overall. That said, new res...
Pitch Summary:
There were no company-specific issues associated with Eagle Materials, but rather the company's share price was impacted by sector concerns regarding a broad softening in U.S. new residential construction conditions. ... Eagle Materials has significant exposure to infrastructure construction where demand conditions remain strong, and commercial construction where operating conditions are patchy but solid overall. That said, new residential construction is an important end market, particularly for Eagle Materials' wallboard operations. Eagle Materials has highly strategic raw materials reserves to manufacture cement and wallboard, low-cost manufacturing facilities, established market positions and a highly experienced, aligned management team... Near term, the softening operating conditions will result in reduced profitability for Eagle Materials. Longer term, our assessment of the earnings power of the business is undiminished. We sold part of our investment in Eagle Materials in late 2024 at a near record high share price which was at the high end of our assessment of fair value. Since then, the share price has fallen around 30%. While partially justified, we consider Eagle Materials is now trading at or below the bottom end of our assessed fair value range.
BSD Analysis:
Eagle Materials is a high-quality, high-growth U.S. construction materials pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the multi-year, non-cyclical infrastructure and heavy construction supercycle. The core moat is its geographic dominance in providing essential materials (cement, gypsum wallboard) in high-growth U.S. markets. The company is focused on disciplined capital allocation and generating superior Free Cash Flow (FCF). Eagle Materials is a high-quality compounder whose value is secured by the massive, non-discretionary government and private sector spending on essential infrastructure (e.g., IIJA).
Pitch Summary:
UnitedHealth announced a material downgrade to 2025 profit expectations in conjunction with its first quarter results and followed up a few weeks later with a further profit downgrade and the "resignation" of then CEO, Andrew Witty. We are extremely disappointed with the performance and management of UnitedHealth, and our own assessment of the business. ... UnitedHealth has been impacted by sector issues including reduced reimburse...
Pitch Summary:
UnitedHealth announced a material downgrade to 2025 profit expectations in conjunction with its first quarter results and followed up a few weeks later with a further profit downgrade and the "resignation" of then CEO, Andrew Witty. We are extremely disappointed with the performance and management of UnitedHealth, and our own assessment of the business. ... UnitedHealth has been impacted by sector issues including reduced reimbursement rates from Government sources as well as increased medical expenses. In our view UnitedHealth is also dealing with a number of company-specific operational issues. ... However, recent events have caused us to lose confidence in our assessment of the business and management. Some of the key senior management team have either resigned, been fired or murdered (the CEO of the insurance division, Brian Thompson, was tragically killed in late 2024...). We are unsatisfied with some of the explanations given by management for the series of profit downgrades and consider there may be more bad news to come. Having confidence in management is a threshold issue for our assessment of Quality and making or holding an investment in a company. ... The Fund no longer holds an investment in UnitedHealth and currently we do not consider the company to be investable for us.
BSD Analysis:
UnitedHealth Group is a high-quality healthcare titan whose unique, integrated model provides an unbreakable moat and delivers predictable, above-market growth. The core thesis is centered on the Optum segment—the company's tech, pharmacy, and care delivery arm—which is the true compounding engine. Optum’s ability to use proprietary data and technology to optimize costs and improve outcomes is the structural driver of margin expansion and superior efficiency. The stock offers a defensive, double-digit growth profile, combining the stability of a payer with the high-growth optionality of a tech-enabled health services provider.
Pitch Summary:
Jacobs Solutions (Jacobs) was founded in 1947 by Joseph Jacobs as a one-man chemical engineering consulting business. Over the next nearly 80 years the business has grown through international expansion and strategic acquisitions to become one of the largest engineering design firms globally with over 45,000 employees. ... Today, Jacobs is a focused, capital-light, technology-forward provider of engineering services concentrated on...
Pitch Summary:
Jacobs Solutions (Jacobs) was founded in 1947 by Joseph Jacobs as a one-man chemical engineering consulting business. Over the next nearly 80 years the business has grown through international expansion and strategic acquisitions to become one of the largest engineering design firms globally with over 45,000 employees. ... Today, Jacobs is a focused, capital-light, technology-forward provider of engineering services concentrated on higher-growth, higher-margin markets such as infrastructure, water, advanced manufacturing and life sciences. Jacobs' leading market positions in the secularly growing Critical Infrastructure, Water & Environmental Solutions, and Life Sciences & Advanced Manufacturing sectors are expected to support mid-single digit-plus revenue growth. ... Jacobs is well positioned to expand margins meaningfully following the simplification of its business model and operational structure. Following the government services divestment, the company is now focused on a streamlined engineering services portfolio. There is a clear path to margin expansion through several credible levers in addition to operating leverage... Jacobs is currently trading on a 19x forward P/E ratio, around a 5% free cashflow yield and offers a 1% dividend yield. We consider these valuation metrics undemanding, with the potential for Jacobs' market valuation to close the gap compared to listed peers such as AECOM, Stantec and WSP. We believe Jacobs is well positioned to deliver strong returns to shareholders.
BSD Analysis:
Jacobs Solutions is a high-quality, high-growth professional services giant whose stock is a conviction bet on the multi-trillion-dollar, non-cyclical defense and infrastructure supercycle. The core moat is its dominance in providing mission-critical consulting, engineering, and technology solutions to government (defense, NASA) and infrastructure clients. The key catalyst is the planned spin-off of its Critical Mission Solutions (CMS) and P&PS segments, which will create a pure-play, high-growth Focus Sector firm and unlock significant value. The stock is a high-quality compounder whose value is secured by its indispensable role in global government and infrastructure projects.
Pitch Summary:
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is the largest integrated healthcare services company in the United States. We established a starter position in UNH after the company’s Q1 2025 earnings implosion and continued to build our position as the stock price weakened. While we don’t think UNH is the defensive compounder that many investors thought it to be, we do think that the stock offers quite an asymmetric risk/reward following a ~50% drawdow...
Pitch Summary:
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is the largest integrated healthcare services company in the United States. We established a starter position in UNH after the company’s Q1 2025 earnings implosion and continued to build our position as the stock price weakened. While we don’t think UNH is the defensive compounder that many investors thought it to be, we do think that the stock offers quite an asymmetric risk/reward following a ~50% drawdown from the recent highs in April. The company faces elevated Medicare Advantage utilisation, challenges in value-based care risk adjustment, and the V28 transition. These issues led to withdrawn guidance and a sharp share price decline. At 12-15x a normalized 2026 EPS range of $24.0-$25.0, UNH would trade between $290-$375, offering limited downside from current prices and enough upside for an attractive trade.
BSD Analysis:
UnitedHealth Group is a high-quality healthcare titan whose unique, integrated model provides an unbreakable moat and delivers predictable, above-market growth. The core thesis is centered on the Optum segment—the company's tech, pharmacy, and care delivery arm—which is the true compounding engine. Optum’s ability to use proprietary data and technology to optimize costs and improve outcomes is the structural driver of margin expansion and superior efficiency. The company’s growth is secured by predictable premium revenues and Optum’s increasing contribution, maintaining a focus on Value-Based Care. The stock offers a defensive, double-digit growth profile, combining the stability of a payer with the high-growth optionality of a tech-enabled health services provider.
Pitch Summary:
Salesforce’s beginnings were as a daring upstart that turned the model of how software was delivered and consumed on its head. We believe the next technological pivot is now on Salesforce’s doorstep: agentic AI. The concept of agentic AI refers to autonomous agents that can make decisions and act independently to achieve specific goals. Agentforce is Salesforce’s agentic AI tool, allowing Salesforce customers to automate certain sa...
Pitch Summary:
Salesforce’s beginnings were as a daring upstart that turned the model of how software was delivered and consumed on its head. We believe the next technological pivot is now on Salesforce’s doorstep: agentic AI. The concept of agentic AI refers to autonomous agents that can make decisions and act independently to achieve specific goals. Agentforce is Salesforce’s agentic AI tool, allowing Salesforce customers to automate certain sales and service tasks. We believe Salesforce is well-positioned to capitalise on this technological shift for two key reasons: it has the data and it has a distribution advantage via the app layer. Data is the lifeblood of AI tools and Salesforce serves as the system of record for its users. By controlling the app layer with 150,000 customers, Salesforce is positioned to be the AI orchestration layer. Data Cloud and AI annual recurring revenue were over $1 billion, increasing by more than 120% year-over-year, with Agentforce reaching $100 million of ARR shortly after general availability. The stock trades on just 17x free cash flow, which we believe could positively re-rate if Salesforce proves itself as a genuine AI contender.
BSD Analysis:
Salesforce remains the system of record for customer relationships at large enterprises, but the story has shifted from hyper-growth to execution and profitability. The company’s sprawling product suite gives it enormous cross-sell potential, though integration discipline now matters more than adding new clouds. Cost controls and a sharper focus on margins have materially improved free cash flow, changing investor perception from growth-at-any-cost to capital-efficient software incumbent. AI is the next battleground, and Salesforce’s advantage lies in embedding automation directly into existing customer data and workflows rather than forcing greenfield adoption. Competition is real, especially at the edges, but ripping out Salesforce is operationally painful for large organizations. The balance sheet and cash generation give management flexibility to return capital while still investing in product. Salesforce may never regain its early growth rates, but it has evolved into a durable enterprise software compounder with real earnings power.
Pitch Summary:
APi Group (APG) is a leader in fire and life safety services. The company focuses primarily on providing statutorily mandated and contracted services to a diverse range of industries, covering critical systems such as fire sprinklers, fire alarms, HVAC, water & telco infrastructure, electricity and natural gas distribution systems, security systems, and most recently elevator service. We were drawn to APG in early April as we searc...
Pitch Summary:
APi Group (APG) is a leader in fire and life safety services. The company focuses primarily on providing statutorily mandated and contracted services to a diverse range of industries, covering critical systems such as fire sprinklers, fire alarms, HVAC, water & telco infrastructure, electricity and natural gas distribution systems, security systems, and most recently elevator service. We were drawn to APG in early April as we searched for resilient businesses that were minimally exposed to Trump’s tariffs. APG’s regular inspection and maintenance services are highly resilient on account of being mandated under statute, yet the stock sold off alongside the market, offering us an opportunity to establish a position at an attractive discount. The company operates two segments: Safety Services and Specialty Services. Safety Services includes life safety, security and elevator inspection and maintenance services. This segment was 74% of revenue in 2024 with a majority being recurring service revenue, which the company calls Inspection Service and Monitoring (ISM) revenue. Specialty Services includes infrastructure and utility services, HVAC, specialty contracting services, and fabrication services. This segment was 26% of 2024 revenue and the majority is one-time contract work.
BSD Analysis:
APi Group is a high-quality, high-growth business services consolidator whose stock is a conviction bet on its disciplined acquisition strategy in the non-cyclical, service-heavy safety and specialty services market. The core thesis is driven by the successful execution of its "APi Way" M&A model, exemplified by the recent acquisition of CertaSite. This deal aggressively advances its goal of reaching a 60% mix of high-margin inspection and service-related revenue. The company's focus on mandated, regulatory-driven fire and life safety services ensures high-retention, recurring revenue. APi is a high-conviction compounder leveraging its operating model and a strong balance sheet (net leverage ratio below 2x) to dominate the fragmented safety services market.
Pitch Summary:
Take Hemnet Group AB for example, the Swedish property portal which we wrote about in our March 2025 quarterly letter. Hemnet is a wonderful business with genuine pricing power and a long growth runway. However, in recent months, the stock has come under pressure as the narrative has shifted towards concerns over competition and regulation. A key factor behind this shift has been the pace of Hemnet’s price increases in recent years...
Pitch Summary:
Take Hemnet Group AB for example, the Swedish property portal which we wrote about in our March 2025 quarterly letter. Hemnet is a wonderful business with genuine pricing power and a long growth runway. However, in recent months, the stock has come under pressure as the narrative has shifted towards concerns over competition and regulation. A key factor behind this shift has been the pace of Hemnet’s price increases in recent years. These price increases led many investors – ourselves included – to extrapolate a continuation of recent pricing-led growth rates. It now appears more likely that there will be a diminution in this rate of growth. The bullish scenario we outlined in our March letter was predicated on strong adoption of Hemnet Max, the company’s newest premium tier. However, so far the take up of Max has been slow. This resetting of growth expectations has contributed to the weak share price performance. At the lows reached in June 2025, Hemnet declined 37% from its SEK 419 all-time-high achieved in February 2025. We think this sell-off represents a significant overreaction. Having revisited these competitive and regulatory issues in detail, we do not believe the facts support the narrative that Hemnet’s dominant position is under threat. To the contrary, we see the recent weakness as a compelling opportunity to add to our position – and we have been doing so. The drawdown has been a headwind to our short-term performance, particularly given Hemnet was our largest position. But we view this as a temporary setback, not a structural issue. We think the market has misread the situation and has sold off this stock based on fear, not fundamentals. Hemnet has now given up its valuation premium to the other global listed property portals, despite a demonstrably higher growth profile.
BSD Analysis:
Hemnet Group is the undisputed, monopolistic digital real estate portal in Sweden, whose stock is a conviction bet on its high-margin, non-cyclical marketplace model. The core moat is its status as the #1 go-to-place for property buyers and sellers, which creates an unbreakable network effect where all agents and buyers must list and search on its platform. This dominance translates to exceptional pricing power. The company's strategic focus on the early stages of the home sales process is designed to strengthen its value to sellers and agents. Hemnet is a high-quality compounder leveraging its monopolistic position to drive superior returns and strong cash flow.
Pitch Summary:
Spectris, who provide high-tech instruments, test equipment and software for many of the world’s leading industrial applications, was subject to a takeover bid. Shares jumped on the news that they had agreed to a £3.8billion takeover by US private equity firm Advent. Further interest from private equity giant KKR and the potential for a bidding war saw the share price continue its upward trajectory, making it the fund’s strongest c...
Pitch Summary:
Spectris, who provide high-tech instruments, test equipment and software for many of the world’s leading industrial applications, was subject to a takeover bid. Shares jumped on the news that they had agreed to a £3.8billion takeover by US private equity firm Advent. Further interest from private equity giant KKR and the potential for a bidding war saw the share price continue its upward trajectory, making it the fund’s strongest contributor this quarter.
BSD Analysis:
Spectris is a high-quality, specialized industrial technology pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the non-cyclical demand for precision measurement and industrial sensing solutions. The core thesis is driven by its successful strategy to simplify its portfolio and focus on three high-growth, high-margin segments: Spectris Scientific, Spectris Industrial and Spectris Services. The company's products are essential for improving efficiency, quality control, and safety in manufacturing, aerospace, and energy sectors, ensuring high switching costs and recurring revenue. Spectris is a high-quality compounder leveraging its specialized technological expertise to capture non-discretionary industrial CapEx.
Pitch Summary:
Geopolitical tensions and rising cyber threats drove strong performance for this fund in Q2. The Israel/Iran conflict intensified focus on digital warfare, prompting increased investment in cyber defence across public and private sectors. Demand for technologies such as real-time threat detection accelerated, benefiting holdings including CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Cisco. With exposure to the cybersecurity value chain, th...
Pitch Summary:
Geopolitical tensions and rising cyber threats drove strong performance for this fund in Q2. The Israel/Iran conflict intensified focus on digital warfare, prompting increased investment in cyber defence across public and private sectors. Demand for technologies such as real-time threat detection accelerated, benefiting holdings including CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Cisco. With exposure to the cybersecurity value chain, the ETF remains well positioned to capture ongoing growth in digital security.
BSD Analysis:
The First Trust Cyber Security ETF (CIBR) is a pure-play, thematic investment vehicle whose stock is a clean, diversified bet on the non-cyclical, accelerating global spending on cybersecurity. The core thesis is driven by the Zacks consensus that the cybersecurity sector is poised for multi-year growth due to the relentless complexity of cyber threats. The ETF provides exposure to a concentrated portfolio of companies whose primary business is in the cybersecurity segment, including major players like Broadcom (10.69% weight) and CrowdStrike (9.48% weight). The stock is a high-growth, defensive play on the non-discretionary corporate and government need to secure data and infrastructure.
Pitch Summary:
With a rise in NAV and a meaningful narrowing of the share price discount, Chrysalis delivered a strong quarter. The investment vehicle returned capital to shareholders through buybacks, reflecting management’s confidence in the underlying portfolio. A key highlight was further progress at Starling, where its Engine technology platform continues to attract interest as a licensed digital banking solution. Combined with successful re...
Pitch Summary:
With a rise in NAV and a meaningful narrowing of the share price discount, Chrysalis delivered a strong quarter. The investment vehicle returned capital to shareholders through buybacks, reflecting management’s confidence in the underlying portfolio. A key highlight was further progress at Starling, where its Engine technology platform continues to attract interest as a licensed digital banking solution. Combined with successful realisations and improved liquidity from a new credit facility, the portfolio remains well positioned.
BSD Analysis:
Chrysalis Investments is a high-risk, high-reward listed private equity vehicle whose value is locked in its massive 35.33% discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). The core thesis is a generational arbitrage play on the eventual re-rating of its portfolio of "later-stage" unquoted, technology-focused companies. The portfolio is concentrated in high-value, market-leading disruptors like Starling Bank (32.75% of assets) and Klarna (15.19% of assets). Management is taking a disciplined approach, making no new investments before the upcoming AGM to maximize focus on existing assets. The stock is a conviction bet on the successful IPOs or trade sales of its core holdings, which should trigger a rapid, violent closing of the discount to NAV.