Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Waters Corporation is undergoing a transformative merger with Becton, Dickinson and Company’s Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions Business through a Reverse Morris Trust transaction valued at $17.5 billion. This merger is expected to significantly increase Waters Corporation's revenue and market potential by expanding its total addressable market. However, the transaction also introduces substantial debt, and despite the potential synergies and growth opportunities, the stock's valuation remains high, warranting a Hold rating.

BSD Analysis:
The merger is set to more than double Waters Corporation's revenue to $6.5 billion and increase its EBITDA to $2 billion in 2025. The transaction will expand the company's total addressable market by $22 billion to $40 billion, particularly in the pharmaceutical discovery and diagnostics sectors. Despite these growth prospects, the company's historical performance has been lackluster, and the increased debt load raises concerns. The stock's valuation, even after a recent decline, appears lofty, suggesting limited immediate upside. Investors should be cautious and seek evidence of successful integration and synergy realization before adopting a more optimistic stance. The projected annualized upside of 15.1% to 15.6% by 2030 is contingent on achieving management's ambitious growth targets, which remain speculative at this stage.

Pitch Summary:
X Financial is significantly undervalued, trading at a P/E ratio of 3.5x despite its strong growth and profitability. The company has transformed from a troubled Peer-to-Peer lender to a robust microcredit provider with a 25% net margin. With a projected revenue growth of 30% in 2025 and a DCF valuation suggesting a fair value of over $36 per share, the stock offers a compelling investment opportunity.

BSD Analysis:
X Financial's transformation into a regulated microcredit provider has strengthened its financial health, with delinquency rates significantly reduced and a solid balance sheet. The company's strategic shift to institutional funding partners has mitigated previous risks associated with individual lenders. Despite the inherent risks of operating under a VIE structure in China, the company's strong relationships with licensed banks and its focus on prime borrowers reduce potential credit risks. The stock's low liquidity and lack of institutional coverage present challenges, but its inclusion in the Russell 2000 index and potential for increased institutional interest could drive future price appreciation. Furthermore, X Financial's consistent profitability and capital returns through dividends and buybacks enhance its attractiveness as a long-term investment.

Pitch Summary:
Boyd Gaming Corporation recently sold its 5% equity stake in FanDuel for $1.76 billion to pay down debt, which may negatively impact its future earnings capacity. The company has benefited from significant growth in online gaming revenue, which constituted a growing portion of its total revenue. However, the sale of its stake in FanDuel means Boyd will no longer participate in the rapid growth of online sports betting, potentially leading to slower revenue growth and a downward revision of its earnings multiple.

BSD Analysis:
Boyd Gaming's decision to sell its stake in FanDuel appears to be a strategic move to manage its high debt levels, which stand at $4.22 billion. While this reduces interest expenses, it also removes a high-growth revenue stream. The company's online gaming segment had been growing rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, but the sale limits Boyd's participation in this expanding market. The gaming industry is projected to grow at an 11.65% CAGR over the next five years, driven by online sports betting, a sector Boyd is now less involved in. Boyd's current P/E ratio of 13.4 is above its 5-year average, suggesting a potential overvaluation given the anticipated slower growth. The company's focus on debt reduction and capital expenditures, such as the new Virginia casino, may not yield immediate returns, further straining its financial performance. Investors should be cautious of Boyd's declining free cash flow and operating margins, which could signal a value trap despite its historically strong management and industry reputation.

Pitch Summary:
Netflix is evolving from a pure streaming service to a diversified media company with a focus on increasing revenue per user and expanding its advertising model. The company has stopped focusing solely on subscriber growth and is now emphasizing ARPU and operational efficiency. With a strong global subscriber base and strategic partnerships, Netflix is positioned to capitalize on advertising revenue, which is expected to become a significant part of its business model. The company's ability to raise prices without significant churn and its innovative content strategy support a bullish outlook.

BSD Analysis:
Netflix's strategic pivot towards advertising and value per user is a significant shift from its previous growth model. The company's operating margin is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 33.3% for Q2 2025, up from 27.2% a year ago. This margin expansion is indicative of Netflix's ability to generate revenue more efficiently. The stock trades at a high P/E ratio of around 58x expected 2025 earnings, which reflects market confidence in its strategic direction. However, this valuation is justified by its robust cash flow generation, expected to exceed $8 billion this year and rise towards $13 billion by 2026. While the stock has appreciated significantly, the potential for advertising to contribute 10-15% of revenue presents a compelling growth opportunity. Investors should be mindful of geopolitical risks, such as potential tariffs on foreign content, which could impact Netflix's international revenue streams. Overall, Netflix's transformation into a media powerhouse with a scalable advertising model offers a unique investment opportunity, provided the company continues to execute its strategy effectively.

Pitch Summary:
ZenaTech is poised to benefit significantly from a recent shift in U.S. military drone procurement policy, which now allows field commanders to purchase drones directly as expendable assets. This change eliminates lengthy approval processes, enabling immediate deployment of ZenaTech's drones. The company's existing product lineup, including the ZenaDrone 1000 and IQ series, is well-positioned to meet the new criteria, potentially driving increased sales and market penetration.

BSD Analysis:
ZenaTech's strategic positioning in the drone market is bolstered by its agile product offerings and recent acquisitions that enhance its service capabilities. Despite current financial weaknesses, such as minimal revenue and high valuation metrics, the company holds patents and has established production facilities, including a factory in the UAE. The upcoming military rollout of experimental drone units by September 1st could serve as a critical validation point for ZenaTech's products. If successful, this could catalyze revenue growth and justify its high valuation. However, the company's ability to scale production and secure military contracts remains a significant risk factor. Investors should monitor the company's progress in securing deals and expanding its service model to assess its long-term viability.

Pitch Summary:
HMAX:CA is pitched as a sell due to its declining payouts and underperformance relative to its peers and relevant indices. Despite its high trailing 12-month dividend yield of 13.77%, the ETF's aggressive covered call strategy limits its potential for capital appreciation and dividend growth. The fund's strategy of selling at-the-money covered calls on 50% of its portfolio has resulted in a loss of approximately 9% in value since inception, while the S&P/TSX Capped Financials Index appreciated by 39%.

BSD Analysis:
HMAX:CA's strategy of aggressively selling covered calls on half of its portfolio has proven detrimental in capturing the upside potential of its underlying holdings. This approach contrasts with peers like CIC:CA and BANK:CA, which cover only 25% and 33% of their portfolios, respectively, and have shown better performance. The ETF's focus on high immediate yields sacrifices long-term dividend growth, a significant downside given the historical dividend growth of Canadian banks. Furthermore, the ETF's reliance on covered calls means it frequently misses out on capital appreciation opportunities, as shares may be called away when prices rise. Investors seeking exposure to Canadian financials might consider direct investments in these companies or passively managed ETFs, which offer more sustainable long-term growth prospects. Additionally, combining high dividend-growth stocks with covered call ETFs on more volatile assets could provide a balanced income strategy that captures both initial yield and long-term growth.

Pitch Summary:
Workhorse Group Inc. is facing significant operational challenges, including poor financial performance and ongoing dilution of shares. The company has been forced to execute reverse stock splits to maintain its NASDAQ listing. Despite a recent rally in stock price, driven by speculation of a reverse merger with a private electric vehicle manufacturer, the fundamental outlook remains bleak. The potential merger is unlikely to create a strong market player, given the difficulties faced by small EV manufacturers in scaling their operations.

BSD Analysis:
Workhorse's financial health is precarious, with cash burn significantly outpacing revenue generation. The company has resorted to issuing new equity under unfavorable terms to stay afloat. The proposed reverse merger might provide temporary relief by refinancing existing debt, but it is unlikely to solve the underlying issues. The EV market is highly competitive, with several companies, including Nikola and Lordstown Motors, facing bankruptcies. The potential merger partner's identity and financial health remain unknown, adding uncertainty to the transaction. Given the high risk of further dilution and the challenging market environment, the stock remains a sell.

Pitch Summary:
Surf Air Mobility Inc. is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for regional air mobility by leveraging its scale, industry experience, and strategic partnerships. The company's focus on electrifying aircraft could reduce operating costs and emissions, potentially transforming the regional travel market. Despite current financial challenges, including liquidity constraints and ongoing losses, the company's strategic initiatives and insider confidence suggest a path to profitability.

BSD Analysis:
Surf Air's strategic plan to commercialize green regional aviation is ambitious, aiming to replace driving for 100-500 mile travel ranges. The company's partnerships with Palantir Technologies and Textron Aviation provide technological and operational advantages. While the company has yet to achieve profitability, its recent cost-cutting measures and focus on optimizing operations are promising. The insider purchase by co-founder Sudhin Shahani signals confidence in the company's future, although liquidity remains a concern with a current ratio of 0.22. The company's ability to achieve its financial targets will be crucial, as will its capacity to navigate competitive pressures and potential economic downturns. The projected EPS growth and the potential impact of its electrification projects could drive significant long-term value if successfully executed.

Pitch Summary:
The UBS ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN offers a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the volatility of crude oil prices through a covered call strategy. By selling call options on the United States Oil Fund shares, the ETN generates consistent income from option premiums, which can be particularly lucrative in high volatility or backwardation markets. This strategy, while capping the upside potential, provides a steady cash flow that can be attractive in uncertain economic environments.

BSD Analysis:
The ETN's performance is closely tied to the dynamics of the crude oil market, particularly the WTI futures. In environments where the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates expansion, demand for crude oil typically rises, benefiting the ETN as the USO ETF appreciates towards the strike price of the sold options. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as a weakening DXY or falling interest rates can further enhance the ETN's attractiveness by supporting higher oil prices. The fund's ability to execute large transactions efficiently in liquid futures markets minimizes transaction costs, enhancing net returns. However, investors should be mindful of risks such as low volatility periods or contango, which could diminish option premiums and overall profitability.

Pitch Summary:
International Tower Hill Mines' Livengood Project holds a substantial gold reserve but faces significant challenges due to its low-grade ore and high capital costs. The project's economic viability is questionable, especially given the rising costs in the mining industry and the long timeline before potential production. The company's strategy appears to be more of an optionality play, relying on future gold price increases rather than immediate development.

BSD Analysis:
The Livengood Project's estimated 9.0 million ounces of gold at an average grade of 0.65 g/t is among the lowest in the industry, necessitating a large-scale processing facility. The initial capital cost estimate of $2.0 billion, based on outdated figures, likely underestimates current expenses given inflation and industry trends. With gold prices needing to outpace rising costs, the project's leverage to gold prices is uncertain. The involvement of major shareholders like Paulson & Co. and Electrum Group suggests a focus on financial positioning rather than operational development. The project's proximity to infrastructure is a positive, but the low-grade nature and high capital requirements pose significant hurdles. Overall, the investment thesis hinges on substantial future gold price increases, making it a speculative play in the current economic environment.

Pitch Summary:
Accenture has shown strong growth in its GenAI-related bookings, which have become a significant part of its revenue stream. However, the company faces near-term challenges with declining overall bookings and a cautious revenue outlook. The strategic reorganization into 'Reinvention Services' aims to embed AI across all client solutions, which could drive future growth. Despite these long-term opportunities, the current market conditions and soft guidance suggest limited upside in the near term.

BSD Analysis:
Accenture's recent performance highlights a dichotomy between its promising GenAI initiatives and broader market challenges. The company's GenAI-related bookings have grown significantly, contributing over $700 million in revenue last quarter. This growth is supported by strategic partnerships with major clients like Air France-KLM and Pfizer, which enhance client retention and cross-selling opportunities. However, the overall bookings have declined by 7% year-over-year, indicating potential pullbacks in client spending. The company's headcount reduction and cautious revenue guidance further suggest management's conservative outlook on future growth. Accenture's forward P/E multiple has been downgraded to 20.5x, reflecting market concerns over its near-term performance. While the reorganization into 'Reinvention Services' could be a catalyst for future growth, investors may want to wait for clearer signs of demand stabilization before increasing their positions.

Pitch Summary:
The Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF (IDMO) has shown a 20% increase over the past year, but current analysis suggests it's time to sell. Despite its recent performance, IDMO underperforms the S&P 500 in terms of both returns and risk-adjusted metrics. The ETF's negative alpha and subpar Information Ratio indicate that its strategy does not add value compared to the S&P 500. Given these factors, the recommendation is to sell IDMO.

BSD Analysis:
IDMO's performance, while positive, lags significantly behind the S&P 500, with a 10.15% average return compared to the S&P 500's 13.60%. The ETF's negative alpha of -0.97% suggests that it fails to generate excess returns after adjusting for risk. Its Information Ratio of -0.39 further highlights inefficiencies in its strategy. Although IDMO exhibits lower volatility (15.80%) than the S&P 500 (16.68%), its performance during down markets is slightly worse. The ETF's Treynor Ratio of 0.10 indicates some reward for risk, but overall, the risk-return trade-off is not compelling. With a moderate correlation to the US market (R^2 of 0.69) and a low beta of 0.79, IDMO offers some diversification benefits, but these are insufficient to justify holding the ETF given its underperformance and risk profile. Institutional investors seeking international exposure might consider alternatives with better risk-adjusted returns.

Pitch Summary:
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is poised for revenue growth driven by strong demand, strategic pricing, and increased capacity from new ships. The company benefits from robust onboard and pre-cruise spending, supported by technological enhancements and high-margin private destinations. However, the stock trades at a premium compared to pre-COVID levels and its peers, suggesting that much of the optimism is already reflected in its current valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Royal Caribbean has demonstrated strong financial performance, with Q1 2025 showing a 5.6% increase in net yield in constant currency, surpassing guidance. The company's strategy of expanding capacity through new ship launches and enhancing high-margin revenue streams, such as private destinations, supports its growth trajectory. Despite these positives, the stock's valuation is high, trading at 21.97x FY25 EPS estimates, compared to peers like Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line, which have lower P/E ratios. The company's loyalty program and digital engagement initiatives are expected to enhance margins, but potential risks include industry pricing discipline and consumer spending trends. Given these factors, the stock's current valuation may limit upside potential, warranting a neutral stance.

Pitch Summary:
CareTrust REIT is positioned for significant growth due to its strategic expansion into the UK market, addressing the rising demand for nursing home beds driven by an aging population. The company's strong financial metrics, including a high rent cover ratio and a robust growth profile, support its undervaluation compared to peers. With a compound annual growth rate of 9% in FFO from 2025 to 2028, CTRE is poised to outperform its sector, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

BSD Analysis:
CareTrust REIT's recent $840 million investment in the UK market is a strategic move to capitalize on the increasing demand for senior care facilities. The UK faces a shortage of nursing home beds, and CTRE's entry with 132 nursing homes and nearly 7,500 beds positions it well to meet this demand. The company's financial health is underscored by a low Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.5x, significantly better than the sector average of 5.1x, indicating strong leverage management. Despite a higher EV/EBITDA ratio of 24.15x compared to the industry average, CTRE's growth potential justifies its valuation. The company's PEG ratio of 0.85x suggests it is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. Additionally, CTRE's dividend yield of 4.3% and a decade-long history of dividend payments further enhance its appeal to income-focused investors. Overall, CTRE's strategic market expansion, robust financials, and growth trajectory make it a compelling buy in the healthcare REIT sector.

Pitch Summary:
Levi Strauss & Co. is experiencing a robust phase of growth driven by its direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which is not only boosting top-line revenue but also contributing significantly to margin expansion. The company's strategic transformation is evident in its strong Q2 2025 results, with organic revenue growth of 9% year-over-year and record gross margins. The DTC channel has matured to a point where it is no longer a drag on EBIT margins, indicating high incremental profitability. Additionally, Levi's successful expansion into new apparel categories beyond denim is enhancing its brand as a lifestyle company, further supporting long-term growth prospects.

BSD Analysis:
Levi Strauss & Co.'s strategic focus on its DTC channel is proving to be a pivotal growth engine, as evidenced by a 10% year-over-year increase in DTC revenue in Q2 2025. This channel's scalability is driving significant margin improvements, with EBIT margins expanding by approximately 300 basis points in the quarter. The company's ability to leverage DTC insights to strengthen its wholesale operations creates a synergistic effect that enhances overall brand presence and consumer engagement. Despite the stock's recent rally past the previous target price of $21, the valuation remains attractive at a forward P/E of 16x, which aligns with historical averages. The company's ongoing transformation into a lifestyle brand, coupled with strategic collaborations and category expansions, positions it well for sustained growth. However, potential risks include the impact of new tariff structures and elevated inventory levels, which could pose challenges if consumer demand weakens unexpectedly. Nevertheless, the revised target price of $28 reflects confidence in Levi's ability to achieve approximately $700 million in net income, assuming the current valuation multiple holds.

Pitch Summary:
PIMCO Dynamic Income Strategy Fund (PDX) is positioned to benefit from the recovery of its largest holding, Venture Global (VG), and the strategic reallocation of its portfolio away from energy equities towards asset-backed securities. Despite a challenging start with VG's underperformance post-IPO, the fund's NAV is expected to increase as VG recovers and PIMCO continues to diversify its holdings. The current 9% discount to NAV presents an opportunity for upside as the discount is anticipated to close, aligning PDX's market price more closely with its NAV.

BSD Analysis:
PDX's investment in Venture Global has been a significant factor in its recent performance, with VG's stock initially dropping significantly post-IPO. However, VG has since recovered, and its ongoing projects, such as the CP2 LNG export facility, along with new long-term contracts, suggest a positive operational outlook. PIMCO's strategy to reduce energy exposure and increase allocation to asset-backed securities, particularly those related to home equity loans, aligns with broader market trends of rising home equity values. This shift is expected to enhance income generation and reduce volatility. Additionally, PIMCO's expertise in credit markets and the closed-end fund structure allow it to capitalize on market inefficiencies, particularly in the asset-backed securities space. The potential resolution of VG's arbitration case and a favorable comparison to peers like Cheniere Energy could further enhance VG's valuation, indirectly benefiting PDX. Overall, PDX's strategic adjustments and the recovery of VG position it for potential gains, with an expected closing of the NAV discount providing further upside.

Pitch Summary:
One of the hallmark signs of these two worlds colliding are so-called Treasury Companies. The first and most successful one is Strategy (MSTR, former Microstrategy). It used to be a failing publicly traded software company, until the founder and CEO Michael Saylor decided to pivot and leverage the fact he had a publicly traded company to create the first Bitcoin Treasury company. Strategy essentially transformed its corporate treasury into a Bitcoin investment vehicle. In simple terms, the company used its cash to buy Bitcoin and hold it on its balance sheet instead of holding traditional assets. Additionally, it raised more money to buy Bitcoin both via issuing more debt (mix of senior convertible bonds with various maturity dates) and shares (via at the market offering). This unconventional playbook has turned Strategy into a structured proxy for Bitcoin’s performance. Currently MSTR market cap is 116bn, which means it trades with a 93% premium to its Bitcoin treasury NAV. While this may sound irrational, this premium exists for multiple reasons. Markets are betting on Saylor’s continuing ability to issue various types of products in order to accumulate more Bitcoin. As BTC price grows, it also improves Saylor’s ability to keep issuing more products and accumulate more Bitcoin. We call this “a flywheel effect” or “a positive feedback loop”, where growth begets further growth.

BSD Analysis:
Now rebranded as Strategy, the former MicroStrategy remains a highly controversial and volatile proxy for Bitcoin, with its stock price inextricably linked to the performance of its massive digital treasury. As of early 2026, the company’s Bitcoin holdings are significantly underwater relative to their average purchase price, leading to substantial GAAP losses from mark-to-market writedowns. While the core enterprise software business continues to provide a stable operating base, the market almost exclusively judges the firm as a de facto Bitcoin ETF with high leverage. Management’s aggressive funding strategy through debt and perpetual preferred shares has raised concerns about dilution and long-term solvency in a prolonged "crypto winter." For investors, Strategy offers an amplified and leveraged way to play Bitcoin's price swings, carrying all the inherent risks of the company’s extreme financial engineering.

Pitch Summary:
Lasty, we fully exited our Coinbase (COIN) position. We have been invested in COIN since May 2023, where we entered around the $50 price level. We were managing the position relatively actively but held the bulk of it until June 25. We decided to fully exit for 2 main reasons: 1. Circle has a revenue sharing joint venture with Coinbase, sharing around 50% of its revenues with Coinbase. Now that Circle is publicly traded, CRCL and COIN are becoming correlated. Since we couldn’t derisk our CRCL position, we decided the next best way to derisk our exposure is to sell our COIN position. We also expect to see attempts to renegotiate the revenue sharing agreement with Coinbase, although this is a controversial view and we don’t expect it sooner than mid-2026. According to our analysis, such renegotiation may prove difficult. 2. Coinbase product execution is often lacking, especially compared to their stiff competitors such as Binance and recently also Robinhood. Their gigantic data breach and lacking customer support point towards potential internal issues and overextension. That being said, we still believe Coinbase is a great company with a lot of potential and we will keep watching their progress closely.

BSD Analysis:
Coinbase Global is executing on a strategic roadmap for 2026 that focuses on bridging centralized and decentralized finance through its "everything exchange" model. The company has successfully integrated Solana-based DEX trading and is collaborating with major traditional banks like JPMorgan and Citi on pilot programs for real-world asset tokenization. Despite a Southern move in recent EPS estimates, Coinbase continues to outperform its industry peers in price performance, supported by a favorable regulatory climate and the growing institutional acceptance of digital assets. Management is prioritizing international growth, particularly in India and the Middle East, while investing heavily in next-generation DeFi infrastructure and AI integration. While the stock’s valuation remains expensive compared to traditional financial firms, its leading position in the evolving digital asset ecosystem provides a unique and powerful growth profile.

Pitch Summary:
Our next big winner in Q2 is another Sigil Core stock position — Robinhood (HOOD). Unlike most of our investments which are largely crypto native, Robinhood is an established TradFi company, offering access to a variety of traditional markets to predominantly US retail audiences. We invested in Robinhood in Q2 2024 after we spotted their first plans to move a big part of their business focus into crypto. Recently their crypto plans became much more crystallized. Robinhood acquired crypto exchange Bit stamp, introduced perpetual futures and announced building their own L2 which will be used mostly for tokenization of stocks and select pre-IPO shares. Currently we believe the crypto news around Robinhood is already priced in and now markets will wait for the quality of their execution. That’s why we decided to significantly derisk our position while keeping a big part of potential upside as we believe Robinhood can become a major crypto player in the next 1–3 years.

BSD Analysis:
Robinhood Markets is delivering impressive financial results in 2026, characterized by a doubling of revenue and a significant surge in net income as it matures into a comprehensive fintech powerhouse. The company has successfully expanded its product suite to include predictive betting and advanced trading tools, driving a substantial increase in average revenue per user. However, the stock’s steep valuation remains a primary concern for some analysts, with its price-to-sales ratio trading well above historical averages. Management is focused on global expansion and AI-driven features to enhance user retention and attract a more sophisticated cohort of advanced traders. While the firm’s rapid innovation and strong growth metrics are undeniable, the stock’s high beta and valuation premium make it a play suited for risk-tolerant investors with a multi-year horizon.

Pitch Summary:
Circle — IPO success First and foremost, one of our biggest wins of this cycle — Circle IPO, which was extremely successful by any merit. We have covered it in detail in a separate article. During the time of writing this article (07.07.2025), Circle stock trades at around $207 and it is one of our biggest positions in Sigil Core. Sigil Core invested in Circle in an OTC transaction last year for the price of around $22 per share, so it currently sits on quite substantial unrealized gain. It is important to note that Sigil Core is part of a shareholder group that is locked for 6 months post IPO. That means we are contractually bound to not sell our shares or hedge them in any way before November 2025. This is fairly standard during most IPOs — original private shareholders get locked post-IPO for a certain time. Please also note that Sigil Core currently applies a -30% discount to the fair market price of CRCL in the NAV. This approach is based on IFRS guidelines and NAV accounting principles. Due to the “decreased marketability” of the asset (we cannot sell or hedge at the moment) it is mandatory to create a DLOM discount (“Discount for Lack of Marketability”). Although CRCL trades publicly, our investment remains under a lock-up that materially restricts our ability to realize value. That is not to say we are bearish on Circle, quite the opposite. Of course, it’s reasonable to claim that the price went a bit ahead of the underlying fundamentals if we look at the snapshot in time. However, Circle is currently entering a supercharged growth phase with lot of tailwinds and bullish news: • GENIUS Act provides positive regulation for adoption of stablecoins • Circle applies for Banking License • Institutional onramp for USDC and EURC • Circle is one of the most profitable crypto businesses with growing market share • Circle Payment Network is tackling cross-border payments • Big tech companies pushing for stablecoin integrations From the flurry of positive news around Circle post-IPO, it’s obvious the company is working hard to establish itself as a leader not only in crypto, but in the financial and big tech world. It also becomes clear that Stablecoins are a major innovation. They are to crypto as LLMs are to AI — a significant breakthrough that shows global product market fit and rapid growth. Thus, betting on stablecoin adoption is not a risky proposition anymore. The risk now lies mostly in Circle’s ability to wrestle market share against its biggest competitor Tether and against incumbent traditional banks, who are scrambling to enter the arena. Circle definitely has an edge against their competitors. Arguably it has a more solid reputation than Tether, which is considered to be an integral part of the global shadow economy. It also has a significant technological and adoption headstart against traditional banks which need to overcome technical debt of their 50 year old systems if they want to adopt crypto infrastructure. In conclusion, while our large Circle position remains locked for another 5 months, it’s still a very good problem to have. We are proud we were able to offer this unique exposure to our investors. While we cannot de-risk our Circle position yet, we discount the locked position by 30% so that the NAV gives a true and fair view.

BSD Analysis:
Circle Internet Group has experienced a significant valuation reassessment following its highly publicized 2025 IPO, with the stock currently finding a base after a sharp post-listing decline. The company remains a central player in the digital asset infrastructure space, with its USDC stablecoin serving as a critical bridge between traditional finance and the decentralized economy. Management is actively pursuing a "real bank" strategy through its First National Digital Currency Bank initiative, which aims to provide greater control over reserves and unlock new revenue streams. While lower interest rates and fluctuating crypto adoption pose near-term headwinds, Circle is diversifying its business model through the expansion of its Payment Network and institutional banking services. For long-term investors, the company represents a foundational bet on the continued tokenization of global finance and the evolution of regulated digital payments.