Bull
Pitch Summary:
Jollibee - The largest quick-service restaurant (QSR) player in the Philippines, Jollibee, was a detractor for the quarter. The company reported disappointing results for Q4, missing its earnings expectations. While its domestic business in the Philippines continues to perform well, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) increasing from 6.4% in the previous quarter to 7.4% in the most recent one, the Group's overall performance was ne...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Becle - Global beverage company Becle was a detractor for the quarter. Industry trends remained weak, and while the company gave guidance that it can get back to growth this year, the market is skeptical. Last quarter, we wrote: "While it remains to be seen what Trump will do, Becle is trading dramatically below its private market value and below where it has traded before on all metrics as a public company, including the first tim...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Glanbia - Irish sports nutrition and ingredients company Glanbia was a top detractor in the quarter. The shares had already performed poorly in H2 2024, as the price of their key input cost for their performance nutrition brands, whey protein isolate (WPI), rose above historic peaks. There is a shortage of WPI supply, but with new capacity due to come online later this year, the company expected prices to remain rational and ultima...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Richemont - Swiss jewellery and watch producer Richemont was another top performer in the quarter. Their fiscal Q3 results (calendar Q4) released in mid-January again demonstrated the brand strength which enables pricing power and market share gains. Like-for-like sales growth of 10% substantially outperformed expectations, with the US being the standout geography, but with strength across the board except for China. With the prosp...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Lanxess – Global specialty chemical company Lanxess was one of the top performers in the quarter, being a clear beneficiary of both macro drivers and internal initiatives. We have argued for some time that Lanxess was undervalued in relation to the quality of its assets and the actions management was taking to allow for significantly improved performance and returns once the end-demand environment started to show signs of improveme...
Pitch Summary:
Prosus - Global consumer internet group Prosus was among top contributors for the quarter, continuing its strong performance from 2024. Tencent, which represents close to 80% of net asset value (NAV) for Prosus, delivered better than expected results in Q4. The company reported YoY revenue growth of 11% and adjusted net profit increase of 30%, benefiting from improved operational leverage. Tencent is stepping up its investment in A...
Pitch Summary:
Millicom – Latin American telecommunications operator Millicom extended its standout 2024 performance into the first quarter of this year. The share price reflects exceptional operational delivery, driving an inflection in equity free cash flow growth, on which the new management team, supported by its largest shareholder, Iliad Group (Atlas) with a 40% stake, has relentlessly focused since 2023. This progress became more visible s...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
PVH – Global apparel brand PVH was a detractor for the quarter. Two key factors weighed on the stock price. First, consumer discretionary spending faced broad pressure, and PVH was no exception. Second, China placed PVH on its restricted list as trade tensions and tariff rhetoric between the US and China escalated throughout the quarter. PVH has done nothing wrong but was unfortunately selected instead of other companies in its ind...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
PayPal – Digital payments platform PayPal was a detractor for the quarter. The stock price declined significantly more than the few percentage points decline in our appraisal value after mildly disappointing results. Growth was in the mid-single-digit range when the market was hoping for high-single-digits. While we trimmed part of our position early in the quarter, in hindsight a larger reduction would have been prudent. However, ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
FedEx – Global logistics company FedEx was a detractor for the quarter. The company faced macro headwinds, including tariff threats and ongoing demand weakness in the US. The company is growing market share and margins in its formerly challenged European business, and this was a driver for the Express business to report low-single-digit topline growth that turned into double-digit cash flow growth. The Freight business saw a declin...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
CNX Resources – Natural gas company CNX Resources was a detractor for the quarter. While CNX was one of our stronger performers in 2024, it started the year with a disappointing outcome regarding government incentives for its coal mine methane gas capture program. The incentives were below our unrisked upside case that could have helped our value by $10-20/share+. While this was a disappointing few dollars per share hit to our risk...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Bio-Rad – Life sciences company Bio-Rad detracted for the quarter. The company remains a stable business with growth potential. The quarter was a story of two halves. Early on, industry trends showed improvement after a period of normalization post-Covid, prompting us to trim on the back of price appreciation. However, later in the quarter, news of government funding cuts and a disappointing quarter of results weighed on the stock ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
RTX – Aerospace and defense company RTX was a contributor this quarter. We purchased RTX at a significant discount in 2023 when concerns over Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbofan (GTF) issues reached what turned out to be a point of max pessimism. We also were able to partner with great leaders in Greg Hayes & Chris Calio, who took advantage of this opportunity to repurchase a material amount of stock while improving operations. Just ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Mattel – Global toy and media company Mattel contributed for the quarter, reporting solid results for the all-important 4Q, with 2% revenue growth and 6% growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). We were also pleased to see management repurchase a material amount of shares at great prices and commit to repurchasing at a high-single-digit percentage of shares outstanding in 2025 if the share ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
IAC – Digital holding company IAC was another solid contributor for the quarter. In January, the company announced that former CEO Joey Levin would be shifting his focus to become Executive Chairman at IAC portfolio business Angi. Barry Diller is taking on a larger role at IAC while continuing to be its Chairman. Initially, the market reacted cautiously, but as the quarter went on, the potential benefits became clearer, especially ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Albertsons – US grocery retailer Albertsons was a contributor for the quarter. Albertsons was a new purchase in 2024, after we had followed the company and its predecessors for years. In an otherwise turbulent quarter, Albertsons stands out as a stable business that remains undervalued because it had fallen off the radar during a protracted deal process with Kroger that ultimately failed. The company should grow at a moderate pace ...
Pitch Summary:
Park Hotels – Hotel owner and operator Park Hotels was a detractor for the quarter. As a stock that is sensitive to the macroeconomic environment, it traded lower as travel demand slowed even though the company reported solid results with 3%+ revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth. Park remains in a much better financial position than in recent years and will soon see debt related to former assets in San Francisco come off the ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
CNX Resources – Natural gas company CNX Resources was a detractor for the quarter. While CNX was one of our stronger performers in 2024, the company started the year with a disappointing outcome regarding government incentives for its coal mine methane gas capture program. The incentives were below our unrisked upside case that could have helped our value by $10-20+/share. While this was a disappointing few dollars per share hit to...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Boston Beer Company – US beverage company Boston Beer detracted in the quarter. The stock price has been under pressure due to macro concerns around declining alcohol consumption trends, combined with concerns on the Truly brand's continued declines and overall company margins. Both we and the company believe these headwinds can be overcome, and the company has multiple drivers to grow in the next twelve months. Management is takin...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
PotlatchDeltic – Timberland and mill company PotlatchDeltic was a contributor for the quarter. The company performed fine in the quarter even though housing demand remains below trend. We slightly trimmed our position as the company was viewed as a potential tariff winner. While not the most exciting company, PotlatchDeltic remains an undervalued, reliable dividend payer with a disciplined management team.
BSD Analysis:
The manage...