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Pitch Summary:
The energy companies in the portfolio contributed strongly to performance in the quarter: Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ), ConocoPhillips Company, Diamondback Energy, and EOG Resources, Inc. All were beneficiaries of the oil price shocks associated with the conflict in the Middle East. We initially invested in CNQ in 2021 when energy company valuations had suffered through the COVID-19 crisis. Environmental, social, and go...
Pitch Summary:
The energy companies in the portfolio contributed strongly to performance in the quarter: Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ), ConocoPhillips Company, Diamondback Energy, and EOG Resources, Inc. All were beneficiaries of the oil price shocks associated with the conflict in the Middle East. We initially invested in CNQ in 2021 when energy company valuations had suffered through the COVID-19 crisis. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives also weighed on market sentiment about the sector. In 2022 we added the other energy names at a time when the market cap of the entire sector was a fraction of the total market. These energy investments were designed in part to serve as a natural hedge in the face of geopolitical risks should they arise.
BSD Analysis:
The manager's thesis on Canadian Natural Resources reflects a contrarian value investment made during sector distress in 2021. The investment was initiated when energy valuations were depressed due to COVID-19 impacts and negative ESG sentiment weighing on the sector. The manager added to energy positions in 2022 when the entire sector's market capitalization represented a small fraction of total market value, suggesting attractive entry valuations. The energy holdings, including CNQ, are positioned as a natural hedge against geopolitical risks and oil price volatility. Recent performance has validated this thesis as Middle East conflicts drove oil price shocks that benefited the portfolio's energy exposure. The investment demonstrates the manager's willingness to invest in out-of-favor sectors when valuations become compelling, with geopolitical hedging benefits as an additional consideration.
Pitch Summary:
Samsung Electronics continued its strong share price performance in the first quarter after having been a substantial drag on returns. Samsung's memory business remains among the top three players in the industry alongside SK Hynix and Micron Technology, Inc. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout has provided a secular tailwind to the historically cyclical memory chip market. Memory has become one of the key bott...
Pitch Summary:
Samsung Electronics continued its strong share price performance in the first quarter after having been a substantial drag on returns. Samsung's memory business remains among the top three players in the industry alongside SK Hynix and Micron Technology, Inc. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout has provided a secular tailwind to the historically cyclical memory chip market. Memory has become one of the key bottlenecks in the system, and the capacity constraints among the leaders in this segment are driving up prices for memory chips. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips are core to the AI ecosystem, as are dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and NAND chips which can be found in cars, phones, tablets, laptops, home appliances, and a vast array of other end products. Samsung has achieved prominent design wins in its foundry business as well—most notably with Tesla, Inc., Qualcomm, and Nvidia.
BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a bullish thesis on Samsung Electronics based on its dominant position in the memory semiconductor market and exposure to AI infrastructure growth. Samsung operates as one of the top three memory players globally, benefiting from secular AI tailwinds that have transformed the historically cyclical memory market into a growth story. The investment case centers on capacity constraints driving pricing power for memory chips, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) which is critical for AI applications. Samsung's diversified memory portfolio spans DRAM and NAND chips used across consumer electronics and automotive applications. The company has also secured notable foundry design wins with major technology companies including Tesla, Qualcomm, and Nvidia. This positioning suggests Samsung is well-placed to capitalize on the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout while maintaining its leadership in traditional memory markets.
Pitch Summary:
CME is the largest global derivatives exchange operator. The Fund has been invested in CME since early 2024, having also owned the business from 2016 to 2021. Given its royalty like features, CME sits in the Real Assets and Income capital pool of the portfolio. CME's role is to bring together buyers and sellers of derivative contracts (futures and options) on underlying assets. These buyers and sellers are either managing risk on t...
Pitch Summary:
CME is the largest global derivatives exchange operator. The Fund has been invested in CME since early 2024, having also owned the business from 2016 to 2021. Given its royalty like features, CME sits in the Real Assets and Income capital pool of the portfolio. CME's role is to bring together buyers and sellers of derivative contracts (futures and options) on underlying assets. These buyers and sellers are either managing risk on their underlying asset (hedgers) or attempting to generate trading profits by providing liquidity (speculators/investors). CME generates revenue by charging a per contract fee based on the volume traded (and cleared). In addition, they sell market data generated by activity on their exchange. CME is an effective royalty on financial speculation and hedging by taking a few cents per contract traded. As trading activity expands or new types of assets are traded, revenues grow. In addition, CME is required to make minimal investment to participate in the growth of this activity. This is best demonstrated by group operating margins of 68% as each additional contract being traded on CME's exchanges delivers a very high incremental margin. In uncertain environments, volatility increases and consequently so does the need to manage risk - this drives higher trading activity and hence revenues to CME. Put another way, CME's revenues often increase when asset prices are falling. The idiosyncratic nature of CME's business means that our investment in CME provides a stabilising benefit to the broader portfolio. CME typically enjoys 90%+ market share across its product sets. This is due to the specific nature of the products - these are benchmarks in the truest sense. But more important are the fundamental economics of exchanges. Often described as "liquidity begets liquidity" where the network effect is strongest. The tightest bid-ask spreads exist where there are the greatest number of buyers and sellers. This encourages more traders to participate, driving up liquidity, and so on. In conjunction with the regulatory requirement for central clearing (the central management of contract settlement) which is also managed by CME, we can see all the hallmarks of a dominant and functional monopoly that also benefits customers by reducing trading costs. Over the long-term CME has grown volumes at 7%. We believe there are a range of growth drivers which can support this rate sustainably over the long-term with the optionality to accelerate through product innovation and secular market participation tailwinds. In combination with CME's circa 4% dividend yield we see a base case return in the low teens.
BSD Analysis:
Cooper Investors views CME as a high-quality 'royalty on financial speculation' with dominant market positions and attractive defensive characteristics. The manager emphasizes CME's network effects and 90%+ market share across product sets, creating a functional monopoly protected by liquidity advantages and regulatory clearing requirements. The investment thesis centers on CME's ability to generate revenue growth with minimal incremental investment, evidenced by 68% operating margins and the scalable nature of the exchange model. Key attractions include the business's countercyclical revenue characteristics during volatile periods and portfolio diversification benefits. Under CEO Terry Duffy's leadership, the company has delivered 7% volume growth, 9% revenue growth, and 16% total shareholder returns. The manager sees sustainable long-term growth drivers supporting continued 7% volume expansion, targeting low-teens returns including the 4% dividend yield.
Pitch Summary:
The largest royalty investment in the portfolio today is PrairieSky Royalty (PSK) a perpetual royalty owner over significant lands in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The company's history traces back to 1881 when the Canadian Pacific Railways received 25 million acres of land in exchange for building a railroad across Canada. These lands included the petroleum and natural gas rights. Over the subsequent 130+ years, t...
Pitch Summary:
The largest royalty investment in the portfolio today is PrairieSky Royalty (PSK) a perpetual royalty owner over significant lands in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The company's history traces back to 1881 when the Canadian Pacific Railways received 25 million acres of land in exchange for building a railroad across Canada. These lands included the petroleum and natural gas rights. Over the subsequent 130+ years, the assets went through various ownership structures until modern day PSK was spun-off from its parent and listed in 2014. PSK owns 18.5M acres of royalty lands in Canada's Western Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The basin is one of the most economically advantaged energy resources globally and continues to attract investment from drillers. As with any natural resource, transportation and egress are critical factors in production economics. On this front, recent infrastructure investments (Transmountain Pipeline, LNG Canada) have been welcome additions. This has helped reduce the differential between the Canadian and US prices from as much as $20 per barrel of oil to the single digit range. Much of the basin's heavy crude is exported to the US where it is a crucial feedstock into the US's refinery capacity (and not readily available domestically). Despite this mutual dependency, recent trade rhetoric has increased the appetite for further transportation investment on the Canadian side - something which was previously thought of as highly unlikely. Such expansion would be positive for the basin and hence PSK. At the 2025 Investor Day in May, PSK provided an update on the value of their royalty asset base. This value, albeit undiscounted, stands at circa C$30B as compared to PSK's current Enterprise Value of less than C$6B. However, this valuation includes just the currently producing wells and only the most economic potential wells. As discussed above, for the long-term royalty owner, long-term optionality represents material latent value. Another way to think about this latency is as follows – using long term average energy prices we estimate PSK will earn circa 75% of its market value over the next decade in free cash flow. There is then a further four decades of reserves beyond this. As a top line royalty owner, this all comes without having to spend another cent.
BSD Analysis:
Cooper Investors presents PrairieSky as a compelling perpetual royalty play with significant value latency trading at a substantial discount to asset value. The manager highlights PSK's unique 140-year history and 18.5 million acre position in the economically advantaged Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Key value drivers include improving transportation infrastructure reducing price differentials, technological advances like multilateral drilling unlocking previously uneconomic reserves, and management's exceptional capital allocation track record. The investment thesis centers on PSK's royalty model generating substantial cash flows without capital requirements, with the company expected to earn 75% of its current market value in free cash flow over the next decade alone. At C$6B enterprise value versus C$30B in undiscounted asset value, the manager sees compelling upside potential enhanced by CEO Andrew Phillips' aligned ownership and countercyclical investment approach.
Pitch Summary:
Where the debate around Freee is about long-run business model durability, the investment case for Ryan Specialty (RYAN), the other significant detractor for the period, has been tested by something more traditional - a turning insurance cycle. The question of AI's impact on wholesale broking is not lost on us, but we believe that the weakening insurance pricing environment has been more impactful on investor sentiment to date. As ...
Pitch Summary:
Where the debate around Freee is about long-run business model durability, the investment case for Ryan Specialty (RYAN), the other significant detractor for the period, has been tested by something more traditional - a turning insurance cycle. The question of AI's impact on wholesale broking is not lost on us, but we believe that the weakening insurance pricing environment has been more impactful on investor sentiment to date. As described by Founder and Executive Chairman Pat Ryan on the 2025 Q4 earnings call, "What distinguishes this cycle is simple. It was harder for longer on the way up and much faster on the way down, particularly as it relates to property." Pat went on to share that in more than 60 years in the industry he has rarely witnessed market sentiment shift this rapidly. We also failed to recognise how quickly the cycle was turning — or more directly, we failed to at least reduce the size of the investment as the operating environment was clearly softening. Ryan Specialty's competitive position remains strong, and management continue to invest countercyclically in talent and technology. However, given the continuing weakness in end markets, we have materially reduced the size of our investment.
BSD Analysis:
Cooper Investors adopts a more cautious stance on Ryan Specialty following a rapidly deteriorating insurance pricing cycle that caught management off-guard. The manager acknowledges execution errors, specifically failing to reduce position size as the operating environment softened despite clear warning signs. Founder Pat Ryan's commentary highlights the unprecedented speed of the cycle turn, particularly in property insurance, representing one of the fastest sentiment shifts in his 60+ year career. While the manager maintains confidence in Ryan's competitive position and management's countercyclical investment approach, the combination of continuing end-market weakness and their own tactical misstep has led to a material position reduction. The investment case now hinges on the company's ability to navigate the downturn and emerge stronger when the cycle eventually turns.
Pitch Summary:
Against this backdrop of uncertainty at the software layer, one of our strongest performing holdings operates in more certain territory. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's (TSMC) stock price has appreciated 66% over the financial year, making it the most significant contributor to performance for FY26 so far. The Fund has been invested in TSMC since May 2020. As the largest semiconductor foundry, TSMC is one of the most import...
Pitch Summary:
Against this backdrop of uncertainty at the software layer, one of our strongest performing holdings operates in more certain territory. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's (TSMC) stock price has appreciated 66% over the financial year, making it the most significant contributor to performance for FY26 so far. The Fund has been invested in TSMC since May 2020. As the largest semiconductor foundry, TSMC is one of the most important companies in the world. Over our investment period, TSMC has cemented its position as the leading manufacturer of advanced chips and delivered Earnings per Share growth of over 30% per annum. Investment returns have been 38% on an annualised basis. More recent growth has been fuelled by the demand for chips used in High-Performance Computing applications, or AI. Semiconductor proliferation (across AI and other markets) as well as the increasing complexities in the semiconductor manufacturing process places TSMC in an increasingly important position. Put simply, TSMC have a near-monopoly in the manufacture of leading-edge chips and so will thrive as long as the semiconductor industry continues to push the performance envelope. This is a bet we are willing to make.
BSD Analysis:
Cooper Investors views TSMC as a core holding operating in 'more certain territory' compared to software companies facing AI disruption. The manager emphasizes TSMC's dominant market position as the world's largest semiconductor foundry with a near-monopoly in leading-edge chip manufacturing. Strong historical performance includes 30%+ annual EPS growth and 38% annualized returns since the May 2020 investment. The investment thesis centers on TSMC's critical role in the AI revolution, benefiting from surging demand for high-performance computing chips while maintaining technological leadership in advanced manufacturing processes. The manager expresses high conviction that TSMC will continue to thrive as semiconductor complexity increases and the industry pushes performance boundaries, positioning it as a direct AI beneficiary rather than a potential victim.
Pitch Summary:
Although the portfolio has limited exposure to software businesses the largest detractor to returns for the quarter was Freee K.K. (4478), the Japanese software company primarily focused on providing accounting and HR-related tools to small businesses and sole proprietors (akin to a Japanese version of Xero). Freee's share price has declined over 30% in 2026. When compared to other western markets, Japanese businesses have been slo...
Pitch Summary:
Although the portfolio has limited exposure to software businesses the largest detractor to returns for the quarter was Freee K.K. (4478), the Japanese software company primarily focused on providing accounting and HR-related tools to small businesses and sole proprietors (akin to a Japanese version of Xero). Freee's share price has declined over 30% in 2026. When compared to other western markets, Japanese businesses have been slower to adopt cloud software. This is particularly the case in Freee's target customer base. Freee continues to exploit this opportunity in an increasingly profitable manner - the company expects to grow FY June 26 revenue and operating profit 26% and 34% respectively. We believe the company is on track to achieve its medium-term (FY June 28) Free Cash Flow targets and that this outcome is not captured in the current valuation. The near-term execution is not the concern. The uncertainty is about what Freee looks like in year ten. We know the customer base is technologically conservative and that Freee is investing aggressively in AI capabilities. But the proficiency of AI is ramping at an accelerating rate, and handicapping the long-run competitive position of any software business has become genuinely difficult.
BSD Analysis:
Cooper Investors maintains a bullish stance on Freee despite significant share price weakness, viewing the 30% decline as disconnected from fundamentals. The manager highlights Freee's strong execution with 26% revenue growth and 34% operating profit growth expected for FY26, positioning it as a Japanese equivalent to Xero targeting underserved SMEs. The investment thesis centers on Japan's slower cloud adoption creating a sustained runway for growth, particularly among Freee's technologically conservative customer base. However, the manager acknowledges genuine uncertainty about AI's long-term impact on software business models, noting that while near-term execution remains strong, the competitive landscape in ten years is difficult to predict. The position reflects confidence in medium-term cash flow targets while recognizing the broader software sector repricing due to AI disruption concerns.
Pitch Summary:
And we established two new positions in the depressed housing industry – Masco and Floor and Décor, as we believe the normalized earnings power of both companies has increased significantly through market share gains and expense efficiencies captured during this extended downturn.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Floor & Decor mirrors the Masco thesis, betting on enhanced competitive positioning during the housing downturn. ...
Pitch Summary:
And we established two new positions in the depressed housing industry – Masco and Floor and Décor, as we believe the normalized earnings power of both companies has increased significantly through market share gains and expense efficiencies captured during this extended downturn.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Floor & Decor mirrors the Masco thesis, betting on enhanced competitive positioning during the housing downturn. The manager believes the company has captured market share and achieved operational efficiencies that will translate to superior earnings power when housing activity normalizes. Floor & Decor's specialty retail model in hard surface flooring provides exposure to both professional contractors and DIY consumers, offering multiple growth vectors. The investment reflects confidence that current valuations fail to recognize the company's improved market position and cost structure following the extended industry weakness. Broyhill's focus on "normalized earnings power" suggests the company will demonstrate significant operating leverage when demand recovers. The flooring retail industry benefits from housing turnover, renovation activity, and new construction, providing diversified demand sources. This contrarian investment demonstrates Broyhill's ability to identify companies that emerge stronger from cyclical downturns.
Pitch Summary:
And we established two new positions in the depressed housing industry – Masco and Floor and Décor, as we believe the normalized earnings power of both companies has increased significantly through market share gains and expense efficiencies captured during this extended downturn.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Masco represents a contrarian bet on the housing recovery, focusing on companies that have strengthened their com...
Pitch Summary:
And we established two new positions in the depressed housing industry – Masco and Floor and Décor, as we believe the normalized earnings power of both companies has increased significantly through market share gains and expense efficiencies captured during this extended downturn.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Masco represents a contrarian bet on the housing recovery, focusing on companies that have strengthened their competitive positions during the downturn. The manager believes Masco has enhanced its normalized earnings power through market share gains and operational efficiencies achieved during the extended housing weakness. This suggests the company will emerge from the cycle with improved profitability and market positioning when housing demand recovers. The investment thesis centers on mean reversion in housing activity combined with Masco's enhanced operational leverage from cost structure improvements. Broyhill's timing reflects confidence that current valuations fail to reflect the company's improved earnings potential in a normalized housing environment. The building products industry offers exposure to both new construction and repair/remodel activity, providing multiple demand drivers. This position demonstrates Broyhill's willingness to invest in cyclical industries when valuations reflect trough conditions but fundamentals suggest improvement.
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a new position in Smurfit WestRock with proceeds from Ball, as we suspect continued capacity tightening and additional pricing will drive mid-term results well above guidance and current consensus.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Smurfit WestRock reflects a cyclical value play based on supply-demand dynamics in the packaging industry. The manager's thesis centers on capacity tightening creating pricing power th...
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a new position in Smurfit WestRock with proceeds from Ball, as we suspect continued capacity tightening and additional pricing will drive mid-term results well above guidance and current consensus.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Smurfit WestRock reflects a cyclical value play based on supply-demand dynamics in the packaging industry. The manager's thesis centers on capacity tightening creating pricing power that will drive results above management guidance and analyst expectations. This suggests Broyhill believes the market is underestimating the company's earnings potential in an improving supply environment. The investment represents capital redeployment from the successful Ball Corporation exit, demonstrating active portfolio management and sector rotation within packaging. The focus on "mid-term results" indicates Broyhill expects the capacity tightening cycle to play out over several quarters, providing sustained earnings improvement. The packaging industry benefits from essential demand characteristics and potential for operational leverage when supply-demand dynamics improve. This position reflects Broyhill's ability to identify cyclical turning points and invest ahead of consensus recognition.
Pitch Summary:
We bought Microsoft as the stock's valuation declined to levels in line with the broader market.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's initiation of a Microsoft position represents an opportunistic value play on a high-quality technology company. The manager's decision to invest was driven purely by valuation considerations, as Microsoft's multiple compressed to levels comparable with broader market indices. This suggests Broyhill views Micros...
Pitch Summary:
We bought Microsoft as the stock's valuation declined to levels in line with the broader market.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's initiation of a Microsoft position represents an opportunistic value play on a high-quality technology company. The manager's decision to invest was driven purely by valuation considerations, as Microsoft's multiple compressed to levels comparable with broader market indices. This suggests Broyhill views Microsoft as a premium business that rarely trades at market-level valuations, making the entry point particularly attractive. The investment reflects the fund's disciplined approach to buying quality companies when temporary market conditions create favorable pricing. Microsoft's dominant position in enterprise software, cloud computing, and productivity applications provides defensive characteristics and recurring revenue streams that align with Broyhill's investment philosophy. The timing of the purchase during market volatility demonstrates the fund's ability to capitalize on short-term dislocations in high-quality names. This position likely represents a core holding given Microsoft's market leadership and financial strength.
Pitch Summary:
After swapping half of our position for Thermo last year, we took our remaining lumps and redeployed the capital into Sotera Health, where litigation fears have created an opportunity to own a mission-critical sterilization duopoly at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Sotera Health exemplifies the fund's contrarian approach to investing in companies facing litigation concerns. The man...
Pitch Summary:
After swapping half of our position for Thermo last year, we took our remaining lumps and redeployed the capital into Sotera Health, where litigation fears have created an opportunity to own a mission-critical sterilization duopoly at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Sotera Health exemplifies the fund's contrarian approach to investing in companies facing litigation concerns. The manager identifies Sotera as operating a mission-critical sterilization duopoly, suggesting strong competitive positioning and essential service characteristics that provide defensive moats. The investment thesis centers on litigation fears creating a valuation disconnect, allowing entry at a significant discount to intrinsic value. Broyhill's characterization of the business as "mission-critical" implies that sterilization services are essential to medical device and pharmaceutical industries, providing recession-resistant demand characteristics. The duopoly structure suggests limited competition and potential pricing power once litigation concerns subside. This investment reflects the fund's willingness to invest in quality businesses when temporary issues create attractive entry points. The position represents capital redeployment from the failed Avantor investment, demonstrating active portfolio management and opportunity recognition in distressed situations.
Pitch Summary:
Avantor made our list of detractors for the last time in the first quarter. The destocking cycle has run far longer than we initially modeled, but the bigger issue was self-inflicted. Successive management teams failed to defend the share against Thermo Fisher. After swapping half of our position for Thermo last year, we took our remaining lumps and redeployed the capital into Sotera Health, where litigation fears have created an o...
Pitch Summary:
Avantor made our list of detractors for the last time in the first quarter. The destocking cycle has run far longer than we initially modeled, but the bigger issue was self-inflicted. Successive management teams failed to defend the share against Thermo Fisher. After swapping half of our position for Thermo last year, we took our remaining lumps and redeployed the capital into Sotera Health, where litigation fears have created an opportunity to own a mission-critical sterilization duopoly at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's exit from Avantor represents a clear admission of investment thesis failure and demonstrates disciplined capital allocation. The manager acknowledges that both cyclical factors (extended destocking) and company-specific execution issues (market share losses to Thermo Fisher) undermined the original investment case. The decision to partially swap the position for competitor Thermo Fisher last year showed recognition of relative competitive positioning, while the final exit reflects acceptance that management execution risks outweighed potential returns. Broyhill's redeployment of capital into Sotera Health illustrates the fund's opportunistic approach to finding value in distressed situations. The manager's candid assessment of the investment failure demonstrates intellectual honesty and commitment to capital preservation. This exit decision reflects Broyhill's willingness to cut losses when fundamental thesis assumptions prove incorrect, prioritizing portfolio optimization over ego.
Pitch Summary:
IQVIA was our second-largest detractor despite fundamentals being far better than price action suggested. The stock has sold off because investors have convinced themselves that AI will compress economics faster than it drives demand. At the current price, we are more than willing to take the other side of that trade. Large pharma is structurally reliant on IQVIA's clinical trial architecture and proprietary data assets, and we thi...
Pitch Summary:
IQVIA was our second-largest detractor despite fundamentals being far better than price action suggested. The stock has sold off because investors have convinced themselves that AI will compress economics faster than it drives demand. At the current price, we are more than willing to take the other side of that trade. Large pharma is structurally reliant on IQVIA's clinical trial architecture and proprietary data assets, and we think it is highly unlikely that Claude can automate away the FDA approval process. While the burden of proof remains on the company, we believe we are being paid well to wait at the stock's current valuation.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill presents a contrarian bull case for IQVIA, arguing that AI disruption fears are overblown and create an attractive entry point. The manager emphasizes IQVIA's entrenched position in clinical research infrastructure and proprietary data assets that large pharmaceutical companies depend upon. The investment thesis centers on the regulatory complexity of drug approval processes, which Broyhill believes will limit AI's ability to disrupt traditional clinical trial methodologies in the near term. The fund views current AI concerns as creating a disconnect between fundamentals and valuation, with the stock trading at attractive levels relative to its defensive characteristics. Broyhill expects IQVIA to benefit from increased pharmaceutical R&D spending driven by AI-enhanced drug discovery, creating more demand for clinical trial services. The manager acknowledges execution risk but believes the risk-reward profile is favorable at current valuations. This position reflects Broyhill's willingness to take contrarian positions when market fears create valuation opportunities.
Pitch Summary:
Reckitt Benckiser was our largest detractor in the quarter. Shares were bludgeoned by a weak cold-and-flu season that temporarily depressed high-margin OTC sales, and overshadowed continued improvement in the company's core organic growth profile. While its seasonal business may be, well, seasonal, we view Reckitt's core business as a premier collection of consumer staples selling at a distressed multiple. Meanwhile, the market is ...
Pitch Summary:
Reckitt Benckiser was our largest detractor in the quarter. Shares were bludgeoned by a weak cold-and-flu season that temporarily depressed high-margin OTC sales, and overshadowed continued improvement in the company's core organic growth profile. While its seasonal business may be, well, seasonal, we view Reckitt's core business as a premier collection of consumer staples selling at a distressed multiple. Meanwhile, the market is ascribing approximately zero value to its Mead Johnson nutrition segment, which we believe will likely be sold once the litigation cloud is lifted.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill maintains conviction in Reckitt despite near-term headwinds from seasonal factors affecting over-the-counter pharmaceutical sales. The manager views the weak cold-and-flu season as a temporary cyclical issue that obscured underlying business improvements in core organic growth. The investment thesis rests on Reckitt's portfolio of premium consumer staples brands trading at distressed valuations due to temporary factors. Broyhill sees significant optionality in the Mead Johnson nutrition business, which the market values at essentially zero due to litigation concerns. The manager expects this segment to be divested once legal issues are resolved, potentially unlocking substantial value. The position reflects Broyhill's willingness to endure short-term volatility for long-term value realization. Reckitt's defensive consumer staples characteristics align with the fund's preference for non-cyclical businesses with pricing power and brand strength.
Pitch Summary:
Ball Corporation rounded out our top three contributors during the quarter. When we initially acquired the position, our thesis centered around the company's post-aerospace-divestiture status, which left it a pure-play packaging company well positioned to return significant capital to investors. As the thesis played out, we sold into the re-rating and redeployed proceeds into more attractive opportunities.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's...
Pitch Summary:
Ball Corporation rounded out our top three contributors during the quarter. When we initially acquired the position, our thesis centered around the company's post-aerospace-divestiture status, which left it a pure-play packaging company well positioned to return significant capital to investors. As the thesis played out, we sold into the re-rating and redeployed proceeds into more attractive opportunities.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Ball Corporation demonstrates disciplined capital allocation and successful thesis execution. The manager identified value in Ball's transformation into a pure-play packaging company following the aerospace divestiture, recognizing the potential for enhanced capital returns to shareholders. The investment thesis centered on the company's improved focus and ability to generate cash flow for shareholder returns rather than diversified operations. As the market recognized this transformation and re-rated the shares accordingly, Broyhill demonstrated discipline by taking profits and redeploying capital into more attractive opportunities. This approach reflects the fund's opportunistic investment style and willingness to harvest gains when valuations reach fair value. The successful exit validates the original investment thesis while maintaining portfolio optimization. Ball's packaging business benefits from secular trends toward sustainable packaging solutions and beverage industry growth.
Pitch Summary:
Rentokil was our second-largest contributor in the quarter, as market sentiment has begun its migration from "Terminix is broken" to "Terminix is messy but fixable," which is the setup we underwrote when we established the position. Fundamentals are strengthening, organic growth is accelerating, and margins are improving, but the company has a long way to go to close the gap with US peer Rollins. Rentokil is a useful reminder that ...
Pitch Summary:
Rentokil was our second-largest contributor in the quarter, as market sentiment has begun its migration from "Terminix is broken" to "Terminix is messy but fixable," which is the setup we underwrote when we established the position. Fundamentals are strengthening, organic growth is accelerating, and margins are improving, but the company has a long way to go to close the gap with US peer Rollins. Rentokil is a useful reminder that once expectations are low enough, simply not getting worse can be enough to drive material upside.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill's investment in Rentokil represents a classic turnaround play, capitalizing on depressed expectations following the troubled Terminix acquisition. The manager identified an opportunity when market sentiment was overly pessimistic, betting on management's ability to fix operational issues rather than permanent impairment. The investment thesis is showing early validation with strengthening fundamentals, accelerating organic growth, and margin improvement. Broyhill acknowledges significant work remains to reach the operational efficiency of industry leader Rollins, but views this gap as opportunity rather than obstacle. The position benefited from sentiment improvement as the market began recognizing progress in the integration and operational fixes. This investment exemplifies Broyhill's contrarian approach of investing when expectations are sufficiently low that modest improvement can drive substantial returns. The pest control industry offers defensive characteristics with recurring revenue streams and essential service positioning.
Pitch Summary:
Valvoline was our largest contributor in the quarter. While the market spent its days hallucinating about the terminal value of artificial intelligence, Valvoline went on quietly changing oil, opening new stores, while moving more cars through its bays than any other competitor in the industry. Since we've owned it, shares have exhibited significantly more volatility than the business itself, but what matters is that the underlying...
Pitch Summary:
Valvoline was our largest contributor in the quarter. While the market spent its days hallucinating about the terminal value of artificial intelligence, Valvoline went on quietly changing oil, opening new stores, while moving more cars through its bays than any other competitor in the industry. Since we've owned it, shares have exhibited significantly more volatility than the business itself, but what matters is that the underlying unit economics are intact, while unit growth, service mix, and price continue moving in the same direction.
BSD Analysis:
Broyhill maintains a bullish stance on Valvoline, emphasizing the company's operational excellence and market leadership in the quick-lube industry. The manager highlights Valvoline's consistent execution in expanding store count and increasing throughput per location, demonstrating strong unit economics despite share price volatility. The investment thesis centers on the company's ability to grow units, improve service mix, and maintain pricing power in a defensive, recession-resistant business model. Broyhill views the market's focus on AI disruption as misplaced when applied to Valvoline's traditional automotive service business. The manager appreciates the disconnect between business fundamentals and stock performance, suggesting the shares offer attractive value. The position contributed positively to performance during a challenging quarter, validating the investment thesis. Valvoline represents a classic value play in a stable, cash-generative industry with predictable demand patterns.
Macro Outlook: The guest argues the market is historically overvalued and expects a recession and credit crisis, with downside potential of 50%+ to normalize valuation metrics.
Stagflation Base Case: He sees the economy in a stagflationary regime and positioning accordingly, emphasizing that higher rates and sticky inflation will challenge most risk assets.
Portfolio Positioning: He favors T-bills and short duration, along...
Macro Outlook: The guest argues the market is historically overvalued and expects a recession and credit crisis, with downside potential of 50%+ to normalize valuation metrics.
Stagflation Base Case: He sees the economy in a stagflationary regime and positioning accordingly, emphasizing that higher rates and sticky inflation will challenge most risk assets.
Portfolio Positioning: He favors T-bills and short duration, alongside commodities exposure—agriculture, energy, uranium—and selective utilities to navigate stagflation.
Precious Metals: Bullish on gold and silver as core holdings (physical plus liquid exposure), noting they could surge as real rates fall amid future policy responses and currency debasement risks.
Energy: Expectation that energy (including fossil fuels and some alternative energy) will be a prime beneficiary of stagflation and potential dollar weakness after the next recession.
AI Infrastructure: Warns that heavy, credit-fueled spending on AI infrastructure, data centers, and hyperscalers resembles the late-1990s tech bubble, concentrating market gains and elevating risk.
Private Credit Risks: Highlights the $2T private credit market, gating/redemption pressures, and systemic links to primary dealers and private equity as likely catalysts for broader credit fractures.
Rates and Policy: Anticipates higher yields either from liquidity stress or inflation, and questions whether the Fed can prevent a disorderly reconciliation without worsening inflation.
Macro Regime Shift: The guest argues the bond market now leads policy, with rising long-end yields, de-dollarization, and petro-dollar cracks signaling lasting inflationary pressures and stagflation risk.
Precious Metals Bull Case: Gold and silver are pitched as core holdings amid currency debasement, central bank buying, and weakening credibility of Western paper markets versus growing Eastern physical demand.
Gold Driver...
Macro Regime Shift: The guest argues the bond market now leads policy, with rising long-end yields, de-dollarization, and petro-dollar cracks signaling lasting inflationary pressures and stagflation risk.
Precious Metals Bull Case: Gold and silver are pitched as core holdings amid currency debasement, central bank buying, and weakening credibility of Western paper markets versus growing Eastern physical demand.
Gold Drivers: Emphasis on M2 expansion, sovereign debt math, and reserve shifts away from dollars supporting long-term upside, framing gold’s rise as fiat weakness rather than a speculative bubble.
Silver Thesis: Five years of structural supply deficits, rising military and industrial uses, and beta to gold underpin a multi-year silver bull market despite cyclical demand headwinds.
Allocation Playbook: Suggested high allocations to precious metals (with an 80/20 gold/silver tilt around a 20% minimum), complemented by hard assets like agricultural real estate, plus patience and liquidity for future dislocations.
Market Structure: Equities are portrayed as Fed-liquidity driven with a potential “war dividend,” while private credit and financialization (e.g., compute-power futures) heighten systemic risk.
Socioeconomic Stress: The discussion highlights middle-class strain from negative real wages and distorted CPI data, reinforcing the case for wealth preservation over speculation.
Outlook: Expect stagflationary dynamics as policymakers prioritize bond market stability over currency strength, a setup the guest believes will continue to favor gold and silver.