Bull
Pitch Summary:
Speaking of which, I think it could make sense to revisit Nu Holdings, as the stock has more than tripled from our initial purchase price and we haven't sold a share. In our first write-up, Nu was around a $16 billion valuation and now it's around $54 billion. Even still, I think the future is bright. The company could do over $2 billion in earnings for 2024, leaving us at 27x forward earnings for plenty of future growth. That's no...
Pitch Summary:
Biosolutions use natural processes to solve environmental, health and agricultural problems. Enzymes and cultures are naturally occurring: we have around 75,000 enzymes in our bodies alone. They are therefore biodegradable, unlike their petrochemical alternatives. Biosolutions allow the world to cut emissions and cause far less ecological damage. For nearly 20 years the world's two leading biosolutions companies have been on our Fo...
Pitch Summary:
Distressed business; declining sales hidden by aggressive revenue recognition; key operational metrics are manipulated; declining customer ROI; an engagement with the company's platform is falling; chief executives are leaving in the same year;
BSD Analysis:
Online physician review and scheduling platform. The short thesis highlights slowing growth post-pandemic, customer concentration, and questions about the durability of its ad...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Centene is a large health insurer specializing in three major government-sponsored programs: Medicaid, Marketplace and Medicare Advantage. Each of these programs benefits from long-term secular tailwinds. In Medicaid, states are steadily outsourcing their programs to managed care companies like Centene to help reduce costs and improve care quality. Managed Medicaid penetration has increased meaningfully over the past two decades, a...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Fears about biotech funding and the sell-off in the broader life sciences area created an opportunity for us to invest in IQVIA, which we view as a high-quality business, at an attractive valuation. We believe that IQVIA is positioned to benefit from the trends of advanced therapeutics and personalized medicine given its ability to perform decentralized clinical trials that require digital capabilities. In our view, IQVIA can grow ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Reckitt Benckiser Group is a global consumer products company with leading brands in consumer health, infant nutrition, home care and hygiene. We like that more than half of the company's sales are generated from consumer health products, which is a category with meaningful barriers to entry, high margins and attractive growth. Additionally, we believe the company's improved execution, particularly in sales and supply chain managem...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Smith & Nephew (U.K.) is a global medical device manufacturer operating in attractive end markets. The company currently generates the majority of its earnings through its sports medicine and advanced wound management businesses, which command strong market share positions and offer favorable growth prospects. The company's orthopedics business has historically underperformed its peers, but we are pleased by the decisive actions ta...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Smurfit Kappa Group (Ireland) is Europe's leading containerboard and corrugated box producer. The company's share price has been under pressure due to a unique downturn in industry volumes caused by supply chain reverberations from the Covid-19 pandemic, which we believe is beginning to unwind. In addition, in September 2023, Smurfit Kappa announced an agreement to acquire WestRock, the second-largest producer of containerboard and...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Brambles (Australia) is the world's largest provider of pooled pallets, crates and containers. The company's pallet-pooling model delivers an attractive value proposition to its customers by enabling standardization and seamlessly connecting supply chain participants to ensure the efficient flow of goods across the world. Much of the market still uses non-pooled pallets, which translates to attractive long-term growth opportunities...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Bayer (Germany) was a top detractor during the quarter. In January, Bayer had a larger than average adverse jury verdict in its long-running RoundUp litigation. We continue to believe that these headline verdicts will be reduced substantially on appeal and note that Bayer has since won two cases in a row. Then, in March, the company held its long-awaited capital markets day. The event contained limited material strategy updates as ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Daimler Truck Holding (Germany) was a top contributor during the quarter. In March, the truck and bus manufacturer released strong fourth-quarter results, accompanied by 2024 margin guidance that significantly exceeded consensus expectations. The expected margin resilience is in spite of a weaker global truck market and is a result of management's decisive actions to improve pricing, drive higher service penetration and increase th...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Centene (U.S.) is a large health insurer specializing in three major government-sponsored programs: Medicaid, Marketplace and Medicare Advantage. Each of these programs benefits from long-term secular tailwinds. In Medicaid, states are steadily outsourcing their programs to managed care companies like Centene to help reduce costs and improve care quality. Managed Medicaid penetration has increased meaningfully over the past two dec...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
St. James's Place was a top detractor during the quarter. In January, the wealth manager reported net inflows for 2023 that were £4.6 billion lower than in 2022. The disappointing update came on the heels of the company's announcement of a large overhaul of its fee structure. In February, the company reported full-year 2023 results. Underlying cash results fell below our expectations primarily due to the margin from new business an...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Daimler Truck Holding was a top contributor during the quarter. In March, the truck and bus manufacturer released strong fourth-quarter results, accompanied by 2024 margin guidance that significantly exceeded consensus expectations. The expected margin resilience is in spite of a weaker global truck market and is a result of management's decisive actions to improve pricing, drive higher service penetration and increase the flexibil...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Kenvue became the largest standalone consumer health company following its split-off from Johnson & Johnson in May 2023. The company's highly recognizable brands, such as Neutrogena, Listerine, Tylenol and Band-Aid, have been market share leaders in their respective categories for generations. However, Kenvue's first year as a public company was clouded by litigation and market share losses in certain categories. As a result, Kenvu...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Delta Air Lines is a leading global airline. Of the big three U.S.-based airlines (Delta, United and American), we see Delta as the most competitively advantaged. We believe the company's years of industry-leading operational performance and investments in the customer experience have established Delta as the premium brand in the industry. We also think its geographically optimal hubs, high local market share, robust loyalty progra...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Deere & Company is a leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment with dominant market share in North America and Brazil. Despite its brand strength, technological capabilities and distribution advantages, the company's stock price has recently fallen due to fears about a downturn in the agriculture business cycle. Longer term, world population and food demand are expected to increase annually yet land and labor devoted to agricu...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Deere & Company is a leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment with dominant market share in North America and Brazil. Despite its brand strength, technological capabilities and distribution advantages, the company's stock price has recently fallen due to fears about a downturn in the agriculture business cycle. Longer term, world population and food demand are expected to increase annually yet land and labor devoted to agricu...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
I find a lot of value in European defense, these companies trade at reasonable multiples and have a potential tailwind (regardless of who wins the White House) on the awakening of the EU defense budgets. Dassault Aviation, for example, is a French company that produces the Rafale fighter. This is the only Fifth (Fourth and a half maybe) Generation aircraft that is not produced by Lockheed Martin or the Russians. The order book is g...
Pitch Summary:
Just before the end of the quarter, we were able to build a position in Red Violet (Ticker: RDVT). RDVT is a software company that specializes in providing detailed background checks and identity verification to banks, insurance companies, private investigators, collection agencies, etc. Previously this management team built two other highly identity/background check solution companies. This is their third iteration focused on buil...