Bull
Pitch Summary:
Phinia was a spin-off from BorgWarner (BWA) and consists of that company's fuel systems and after-market businesses. What attracted me to do further work was the language that management used on their calls. For example, here is what the CEO said on a recent call about executive compensation: "... we are managing the business with a laser focus on generating economic value, or EV, and free cash flow. The 2024 annual cash incentive ...
Pitch Summary:
The court ruled against the company's key monopolistic protection and it was not disclosed to investors; the company concealed this material information and now it will compete against others;
BSD Analysis:
Insulet develops the Omnipod, a tubeless insulin pump. While adoption continues, the short thesis highlights a stretched valuation given intensifying competition from Medtronic, Tandem, and Dexcom’s integrated systems. Margins ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Alphabet is the holding company for Google, one of the preeminent businesses in the world, as well as a collection of other, smaller companies, such as Access (broadband internet), Calico (life sciences), Verily (life sciences), and Waymo (autonomous vehicles), among others. Google has numerous core products that are used on a regular basis by more than a billion users around the world, including Google Search, Android, Chrome, Gma...
Published: May 10, 2024
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM US, 2330 TT) We remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects and envision ourselves holding shares for an extended period. As we've previously discussed, we believe the company's two key competitive advantages - consistently manufacturing cutting-edge semiconductor chips while offering highly competitive pricing - will drive robust profits for years to come. These advanta...
Pitch Summary:
CEO's degree claims are misleading; the company's executives and directors are associated with financial scandals; false claims that the company is expanding its physical stores; up to 50% downside;
BSD Analysis:
Boot Barn specializes in western and workwear apparel. Bears argue the company is overextending store growth in a niche category that may not support national scale. Same-store sales have slowed, suggesting demand saturat...
Pitch Summary:
Hindenburg's Nate tweeted: We’ve had a flood of 15+ inbounds in the past week asking us to look at potential accounting fraud at $CVNA. More than I've ever seen in so short a span of time, many that describe granular red flags.
BSD Analysis:
Carvana operates an online used car marketplace with a capital-intensive logistics network. The short case emphasizes extremely high leverage, reliance on securitizing subprime loans, and expo...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Blue Label Telecoms (BLU) continues its path of self-healing. BLU announced that it received approval from the Competition Commission to take control of Cell C. This is a subtle but essential development to unlock shareholder value. The remaining impediment is the telecoms regulator. Despite BLU trading at single-digit multiples of its core business earnings, investor interest has been subdued. A significant reason for this hesitan...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Transaction Capital (TCP) completed its spin-off of WeBuyCars (WBC) during the quarter – an event we've written about many times. We've previously expressed our belief that WBC has ample room to grow over the next few years. The market often misunderstands the dynamics of "aggregators" and, as a result, underestimates WBC's potential value. Through economies of scale, aggregators tend to capture significant portions of the "industr...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
During the quarter, we reinvested back in Tencent (and proxy Prosus) primarily because we're observing another pattern from our playbook that we cited in our last letter: the idea that advertising is a helpful 'switch' that can be 'turned on' to enhance margins when they're required. Tencent's WeChat is used daily by 1 billion people in China. Still, Tencent has historically under-monetised the advertising potential of its vast soc...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Over the past nine months we have been able to build up a decent size position in ENDI Corp (ENDI) at around $4 per share, or two times earnings net of cash. It has since climbed to above $6.50 per share. ENDI Corp, formerly known as Enterprise Diversified and prior to that Sitestar, has been quite a ride for long-term shareholders. Eight years ago, the company was taken over by private investor Jeff Moore and Steven Kiel of Arquit...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
One position in the portfolio we have not discussed much in our earlier letters to investors is our 6% investment in OCI, which we started in April 2023. Despite important catalysts, the stock is currently trading at our entry price. On a total return basis, we are up 16.1% in the position due to regular and special dividends paid out last year. We expect to receive another significant special dividend this year, as outlined below....
Bull
Pitch Summary:
AGNC is an internally managed REIT focused on the agency RMBS sector. As the best of breed RMBS REIT, AGNC trades at a discount to tangible book value and offers a mid-teens dividend yield. With MBS spreads at a 3+ standard deviation from the mean, investors in AGNC will benefit from a normalization of mortgage credit spreads. While we wait for agency mortgage spreads to normalize, Appleseed Fund clips a ~1.3% dividend each month.
...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Humana is one of several U.S. large managed care organizations and is primarily focused on government health insurance. Humana's share price has fallen over 40.0% from post-COVID highs due to the recent emergence of elevated medical loss ratios. In our view, Humana's stock has been severely punished and the stock was quite attractive at the time when Appleseed Fund took a position.
BSD Analysis:
Appleseed Fund initiated a position...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
For readers in the habit of using quantitative screens to identify investment ideas, NN will likely cause you to turn the other cheek. At first glance, this business does not look pretty. Under the hood, there is a lot to like. The fact patterns here along with management efforts are very similar to our investment in Bel Fuse. Like Bel Fuse, NNBR possesses strong technical expertise, a large manufacturing footprint, and long-dated ...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Innovative Food Holdings is a specialty food distributor with a niche service offering and a history of strong organic growth. The company distributes over 7,000 perishable and specialty food and food related products, with expertise in selection, sourcing, and logistics. The business was founded and run for nearly twenty years by the former CEO who was both overpaid and had a history of chasing pet projects to the company's detrim...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
I recently had the opportunity to pitch a best idea at the BTIG Value Investing event in Omaha as part of the Berkshire Hathaway pilgrimage weekend. I pitched REVG, which is a manufacturer of primarily fire trucks and ambulances. We believe this is a very compelling industry due to current three-year backlogs for demand, significant price increases which have yet to fully flow through the P&L, and an oligopoly industry structure. M...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Humble Group AB was the biggest detractor in the quarter, as it gave up some of its Q4 gains. We believe the thesis is on track and that this company remains one of the cheapest stocks in our portfolio. We see the potential for it to double over the next 12 months. Humble (full thesis here) has traded down in sympathy with the Swedish First North index as the institutional investor community increasingly abandons the venue in favor...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Daktronics was another large contributor in the first quarter. We will refrain from rehashing the thesis, as we have fully covered this in previous letters. However, we believe the thesis is very much on track and that DAKT remains significantly undervalued. The stock still trades for <6x our estimate of EBITDA, implying a double-digit free cash flow yield. We believe there remains underappreciated growth and self-improvement le...
Bull
Pitch Summary:
Alta Fox has followed EML Payments for over five years. It started as a payments company focused on the gift and incentive card program management industry. Alta Fox was briefly invested in the company with the thesis that the business operated in a uniquely profitable payments niche and the company was cheap on normalized earnings. The company "diworsified" in 2020, at the worst possible time, by acquiring PFS, a European payments...