Loading BSD 13F portfolios...
Elite Manager Tracking
The Top 150 BSDs
Real-time 13F holding analysis for the industry's most influential institutional investors. Track conviction shifts, new entries, and structural exits.
Robert Shiller
The Thought Leader in Behavioral Economics
About Investor
Robert Shiller
The Thought Leader in Behavioral Economics
Bridgewater Associates
Introduction
Birth: March 29, 1946 - Detroit, Michigan, USA Education: Bachelor's degree in Economics from the University of Michigan (1967). Master of Science (S.M.) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (1968). Ph.D. in Economics from MIT (1972) Current Affiliation: Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. Professor of Finance and Fellow at the International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management Notable Contributions: Co-developer of the Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in the United States and is a primary gauge for measuring the health of the housing market. Pioneering research in the field of behavioral finance, examining how psychology affects financial markets and economic decision-making. Awards: Co-recipient of the 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, along with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen, for their empirical analysis of asset prices. Innovations in Education: Developed and taught one of the first massive open online courses (MOOCs) on financial markets.Investment Philosophy
Long-Term Perspective: Focus on long-term investment horizons, avoiding the pitfalls of short-term market fluctuations and speculation. Behavioral Insights: Incorporate understanding of human psychology and behavioral biases in investment decisions to avoid common traps like herd mentality and overreaction to market news. Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio across different asset classes and geographies to mitigate risk. Market Efficiency and Irrationality: Recognize that while markets can be efficient, they are also prone to periods of irrationality and bubbles driven by investor sentiment, necessitating caution. Valuation Awareness: Pay attention to asset valuations using metrics like the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio to assess whether markets are overvalued or undervalued. Economic Indicators and Trends: Consider broad economic indicators and structural trends, including technological innovations and demographic shifts, in investment strategy formulation. Risk Management: Be mindful of risk and avoid investments with risk levels that are not commensurate with expected returns. Financial Literacy: Advocate for and maintain a high level of financial literacy to make informed investment decisions. Social Responsibility: Consider the social impact of investment choices, recognizing the role of finance in contributing to societal welfare. Adaptability: Stay adaptable and open to changing investment strategies in response to new information or shifts in economic conditions.Notable Achievements and Contributions:
Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences: Awarded in 2013, along with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen, for their empirical analysis of asset prices, contributing significantly to the understanding of how prices move in markets. Development of the Case-Shiller Index: Co-developed with Karl Case, this index is a leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market. Pioneering Work in Behavioral Economics: Shiller is one of the pioneers in the field of behavioral economics, exploring how psychological and social factors affect economic decisions and financial markets. Authorship of Influential Books: Authored several influential books, including "Irrational Exuberance," which critically examines speculative bubbles in stock and real estate markets, and "Finance and the Good Society," exploring the role of financial innovation in society. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio: Developed the CAPE ratio, a valuation measure used to assess whether a stock is over or undervalued by comparing its current price to its inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Contributions to Economic Discourse and Policy: Shiller's work has significantly influenced economic policy and discourse, particularly in understanding market volatility, real estate cycles, and the importance of investor psychology. Innovations in Financial Markets: Proposed innovative financial instruments, such as continuous workout mortgages and GDP-linked bonds, aimed at improving market efficiency and stability. Research on Narrative Economics: Explored the concept of narrative economics, studying how popular stories and narratives influence economic events and trends, further expanding the understanding of market dynamics.Fun Fact:
A fun and lesser-known fact about Robert Shiller is his artistic side and interest in music. Shiller is not only an accomplished economist but also a musician. He has been known to play the guitar and sing, showcasing a creative streak that complements his analytical prowess in economics.Famous Quotes:
"The ability of human beings to resist the lure of the crowd is limited. Their herd behavior is rooted in our evolution, serving us well in most situations." "The best example of a bubble is in people's minds. It's the idea that something has a new era." "Finance is not merely about making money. It's about achieving our deep goals and protecting the fruits of our labor. It's about stewardship and, therefore, about achieving the good society." "Economic events are so complex and multifaceted that they cannot be captured in a few numbers. We have to look at a broad range of indicators." "Economic fluctuations are substantially driven by contagion of oversimplified and easily transmitted variants of economic narratives." "Speculative bubbles are fueled by a pervasive sense of investor optimism, and there are periods where optimism is just going overboard." "Financial markets are driven by human psychology. Price movements can't be explained solely by fundamentals but by fluctuating assessments of fundamentals." "People put too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes." "The economy is much more complicated than it appears. It's not just a matter of more workers equals more work equals more wealth." "Economists, like all scientists, have a difficult time predicting the future. They look at past relationships, and those relationships are not necessarily predictive of the future."Philanthropy
Education and Mentorship: Teaching and mentoring students at Yale University and beyond, contributing to the development of future economists and finance professionals. Public Education: Writing books and articles that make complex economic concepts accessible to the general public, thereby raising financial literacy. Policy Advocacy: Advocating for economic policies and financial innovations that can improve market efficiency and stability, such as his proposal for continuous workout mortgages and GDP-linked bonds. Books and Publications: "Irrational Exuberance" (2000, with subsequent editions in 2005 and 2015): This book explores asset bubbles and the psychological factors driving speculative booms in stock and real estate markets. The term "irrational exuberance," popularized by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, is used to describe the unfounded market optimism that leads to overvaluation. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism" (2009, co-authored with George Akerlof): This book examines how psychological factors, referred to as "animal spirits," including confidence, fairness, corruption, and money illusion, influence financial decisions and can lead to economic crises or booms. "The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It" (2008): Shiller analyzes the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis and offers innovative solutions to prevent similar crises in the future, emphasizing the role of financial innovation and improved financial education. "Finance and the Good Society" (2012): In this book, Shiller argues that financial institutions and innovations can play a positive role in society when properly regulated and designed to serve the public good, challenging the notion that finance is inherently detrimental to societal well-being. "Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception" (2015, co-authored with George Akerlof): This work explores how markets, while creating real value, also systematically exploit psychological weaknesses and ignorance, leading to deception and manipulation in various industries. "Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events" (2019): Shiller introduces the concept of narrative economics, examining how popular stories and narratives can significantly influence economic events and market movements, shaping public perceptions and behaviors.Investor Philosophy
Investment philosophy details pending verification.
Robert Shiller Top Holdings
| Ticker | P/C | Company Name | Sector | Market Value | Shares | Weight | Chg Shares | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy & Macro Focus — Non-13F Equity ManagerRobert Shiller operates primarily in global macro instruments, foreign exchange, sovereign debt, or private concentrated strategies that fall outside standard U.S. SEC Form 13F equity reporting thresholds. | ||||||||
Recent Buys (13F)
| Ticker | Amount | % Chg | Weight | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No recent buys. | ||||
Recent Sells (13F)
| Ticker | Amount | % Chg | Weight | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No recent sells. | ||||
13F Sector Breakdown
| Sector | Stocks | Value | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| No sector exposure available. | |||