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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings growth relative to a highly overvalued S&P 500."
Turtle Creek reports a disappointing calendar year 2025, with a -12.4% return for the flagship Turtle Creek Equity Fund, significantly trailing the Canadian mid-cap index which was driven by resource and mining stocks (a sector Turtle Creek strictly avoids). Despite experiencing a peak-to-trough decline of 22% between February and November—the ninth such decline of >20% in its history—the firm notes that its historical recoveries over the subsequent two years have been exceptionally strong. Turtle Creek highlights a profound shift in market structure, where fundamental volume has shrunk to under 10% of NYSE trading, prompting them to refine their portfolio weighting overlays. Looking forward, the manager highlights a stark valuation discrepancy: the S&P 500 trades at an expensive 22x forward P/E, whereas Turtle Creek's portfolio trades at just 10x forward P/E with projected annual earnings growth of >20% over the next five years.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is above average conviction: Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates high conviction actionable entry points. Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Despite a challenging -12.4% return in 2025, Turtle Creek expects a powerful recovery, citing a cheap portfolio valuation of 10x forward P/E with over 20% projected annual earnings...
