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Fund Returns
QTD+5.4%
YTD+35.5%
Annualized+0.127%
Positioning StanceCAUTIOUS
Market CapAll Cap
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor equipment play in Metasurface Technologies."
Executive Summary
In December 2025, the Fawkes Capital Fund grew by 3.5%, driven primarily by its major position in Wasion Holdings. The fund closed 2025 with a 35.5% annual net return. Moving into 2026, the fund has proactively trimmed overall equity exposure at the margin due to rising early-January volatility, adopting a 'cautiously optimistic' stance. On the macro front, the manager expects a resilient US economy, supported by healthy aggregate consumer spending and an unprecedented $400 billion US AI datacentre capex wave in 2026. On a bottom-up level, the fund initiated a high-conviction position in Metasurface Technologies, a HK-listed, Singapore-headquartered precision component manufacturer for chipmaking tools. Metasurface operates in a highly protected niche with multi-year qualification barriers, holds cash and liquid assets exceeding its market capitalization, and trades at just 6-7x trailing earnings compared to global peers at 30-40x.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
80%
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
85%
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains above average conviction: The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
75%
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
40%
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
80%
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
85%
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
40%
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
60%
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...
70%
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a above average conviction orientation. The Fawkes Capital Fund gained 3.5% in December, capped off a solid 35.5% return for the year, and has tactically trimmed equity risk while initiating a deep-value semiconductor eq...