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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets in T-bills to ride out an early-stage crypto winter."
In Q4 2025, Crypto Native Capital declined by 20.1%, outperforming Bitcoin (-23.5%) and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (-30.4%) thanks to defensive actions taken in Q3 that left the fund two-thirds in Bitcoin and one-third in cash. The manager announces a major strategic shift: going forward, the fund will hold only Bitcoin and cash, completely eliminating altcoin exposure. This decision is driven by rigorous historical analysis showing that out of 1,400 altcoins, only 20 beat Bitcoin over the 2013-2022 period, with the median token going to zero. Believing the market has entered a typical year-long crypto winter, the fund has parked its cash entirely in T-bills (exiting a pilot in Hyperliquid's HLP vault that did not perform as expected) and plans to wait patiently for market capitulation before deploying capital to accumulate more Bitcoin.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment remained balanced with selective rotation across positions. Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates moderate conviction language: Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Crypto Native Capital is transitioning to a strict 'Bitcoin-only' strategy, discarding altcoins entirely due to terrible historical odds, and is currently holding 1/3 of its assets...
