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Fund Returns
QTD-12.1%
YTD+23.2%
Annualized-1.19%
Positioning StanceBULLISH
Market CapAll Cap
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust macro disinflation and labor market weakness to drive yields lower in 2026."
Executive Summary
The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund posted a 2.32% return for 2025, lagging behind the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index's 7.30% return, primarily due to a minor increase in long-term Treasury yields (the 30-year yield rose to 4.84%) while shorter-term rates fell. Despite persistent public concern over accelerating inflation, the sub-advisor (Hoisington Investment Management Company) argues that economic realities indicate a profound disinflationary environment. Key metrics support this, including a rise in the headline unemployment rate to 4.4%, massive downward revisions in BLS historical job growth data, flat commercial lending, and a reduction of the federal budget deficit by $0.3 trillion. Utilizing the Fisher equation and academic research on the demand-suppressing effects of tariffs and historical technology investment cycles, the managers conclude that inflation expectations will continue to drop, reinforcing their high-conviction allocation in long-duration U.S. Treasury securities.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
90%
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
60%
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
55%
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
98%
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
90%
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
95%
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
80%
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
50%
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...
90%
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund underperformed in 2025 due to rising long-term yields, but managers maintain a highly bullish outlook on long Treasuries, expecting robust...