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"Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, and AI-driven overcapacity."
Hoisington Investment Management's Q4 2025 review outlines eight key forces sustaining disinflation into 2026. The U.S. labor market is underperforming, highlighted by an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and significant downward payroll revisions by the QCEW. Real disposable income remains weak, forcing consumers to draw down savings. Despite interest rate cuts, bank credit is stagnant, real world dollar liquidity fell by 8.3%, and the velocity of money decelerated. On the fiscal side, the budget deficit fell to $1.7 trillion, aided by tariff revenues. Academic research shows that tariff hikes act as demand shocks that suppress growth and lower inflation over time. Additionally, AI capital spending risks causing overcapacity and margin compression, reinforcing the disinflationary path. Given unit labor cost growth of just 1.2%, Hoisington expects long-term Treasury yields to decline further.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Hoisington anticipates a continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields in 2026, driven by persistent disinflationary forces including a softening labor market, tight credit, ...
