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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in 2026."
Bianco Research reviews the performance of its Total Return Index (tracked by the WTBN ETF), which marginally outperformed the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index in 2025. The core of the commentary analyzes why the U.S. 10-year yield fell 40 bps in 2025 while global yields generally rose. Bianco systematically debunks the ideas that this fall was due to weak U.S. economic growth (nominal GDP grew at 5.40% in Q3 2025), low inflation (U.S. core inflation is higher than 56% of developed nations), or low debt supply (the U.S. fiscal deficit sits at 5.82% of GDP). Instead, the letter attributes the decline to market expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts (50 bps expected in 2026) influenced by political pressure from Donald Trump. Bianco maintains an underweight duration and underweight corporate credit stance, favoring short-term TIPs and the US Dollar, expecting long-term yields to trend higher in 2026.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a above average conviction orientation. The U.S. 10-year yield's decline in 2025 was a global anomaly disconnected from strong U.S. growth, high inflation, and massive deficits; Bianco is positioned for higher yields in ...
