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Fund Returns
QTD+10.6%
YTD+64%
Positioning StanceCONSTRUCTIVE
Market CapAll Cap
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fees."
Executive Summary
Militia Capital delivered strong performance for both Q4 2025 (+10.6% net) and the full year 2025 (+64.3% net). The manager, David Orr, announced the addition of two new anonymous PMs with $5 million each, alongside a $6.4 million reciprocal, fee-waived cross-investment with Grant Beaty's Latham Capital. The letter outlines a detailed thesis on starting a clearing broker business, demonstrating that Militia currently pays ~3.25% of AUM annually in brokerage and borrowing costs. To capture these highly lucrative margins, Militia is launching an ETF advisory business in Austin, which will serve as the foundation for its future clearing brokerage.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
80%
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
75%
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains moderate conviction: Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
90%
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is high conviction: Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
80%
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
80%
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
85%
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
40%
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
70%
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...
80%
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Militia Capital achieved a +64.3% net return in 2025 and plans to start an ETF advisory business as a stepping stone to building its own clearing broker to bypass high middleman fe...