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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"PM Capital's Global Companies Fund rose 10% in Q3 2025, outperforming markets through disciplined exposure to undervalued cyclicals. Gold and copper positions drove returns as commodity fundamentals improved and supply disruptions emerged."
PM Capital delivered strong performance in Q3 2025 with the Global Companies Fund rising 10% versus 6% for the MSCI World Index. The fund's outperformance was driven by disciplined stock selection and exposure to undervalued cyclical sectors, particularly commodities and European banking. Gold positions benefited from a 17% price rise to record highs, with Newmont gaining 45% and Northern Star up 26% since purchase. Copper holdings including Teck Resources and Grupo Mexico performed well as supply disruptions shifted market expectations from surplus to deficit. European banks continued their re-rating with Caixabank rising 22% on strong fundamentals and significant shareholder return plans. The Macau recovery supported gaming positions with major operators up over 30%. Key risks include operational uncertainty from tariffs and cautionary valuation signals in popular megatrends. The portfolio remains positioned differently from broader markets in areas with valuation support, having reduced exposure after realising gains in several holdings. The manager maintains a long-term disciplined approach focused on bottom-quartile entry valuations.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The fund demonstrates high conviction through concentrated positions in specific themes (commodities, European banking) with detailed thesis explanations and specific position sizing decisions. The manager provides clear rationale for entries and exits, though the diversified nature across multiple themes prevents an extreme conviction score.
Growth Outlook
The manager acknowledges that markets have staged a remarkable recovery from April lows and reached all-time highs, but expresses caution about megatrends not addressing valuation concerns. The outlook is mildly positive but tempered by valuation discipline.
Risk Appetite
The fund reduced invested exposure after exiting several holdings and maintains a defensive positioning different from broader markets. This suggests a cautious risk appetite despite being in cyclical sectors.
Capital Deployment
The fund explicitly reduced invested exposure after exiting several holdings where theses were realized, including sales of Spectris, Airbus, and Mineral Resources. This represents net capital harvesting rather than deployment.
Forward Guidance
The manager sees opportunities for disciplined investors but emphasizes patience and selectivity. The guidance suggests selective deployment rather than aggressive risk-taking, with focus on valuation support.
Language Signal
Language includes positive terms like 'opportunities,' 'attractive,' and 'undervalued' but is balanced with cautionary phrases about uncertainty and valuation concerns. The tone is constructive but measured.
Perceived Risk
The manager acknowledges operational uncertainty from tariffs, softer US economic data, and expresses caution about valuation levels in popular themes. However, these risks are discussed as manageable rather than systemic threats.
Opportunity Density
The manager sees 'significant change underway across global markets, creating new opportunities for disciplined investors' and maintains exposure to areas with 'valuation support.' This suggests a moderately rich opportunity set for selective investors.
Time Horizon
The 40-year reflection emphasizes long-term cycles and patience, with the investment process often taking 'years - sometimes a decade - to unfold.' The manager explicitly commits to the same long-term perspective that has guided them since inception, indicating a multi-year investment horizon.
