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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Antipodes Global underperformed in Q3 but maintains strong year-to-date performance. Portfolio benefited from China tech rally and gold strength while suffering from short positioning."
Antipodes Global Fund underperformed its benchmark in Q3 2025 but continues to significantly outperform year-to-date and over 12 months. The portfolio benefited from exposures in emerging markets, particularly China and Hong Kong, Western Europe, and Canada, while US, Korea, and Brazil positioning detracted. Key contributors included Alphabet on AI sentiment, Barrick Mining on strong gold performance, and Tencent on Chinese tech momentum. Detractors included Brinker International despite strong results, Sendas Distribuidora on Brazilian equity weakness, and Meituan on competitive pressures. Portfolio changes focused on increasing defensive commodity exposure through Barrick, expanding Chinese technology exposure via Tencent and CATL, and adding healthcare positions in Merck and Globus Medical. The manager exited semiconductor positions Micron and SK Hynix at cycle highs while rotating Japanese exposure from Fujitsu to Daikin. Short positioning detracted amid robust market returns driven by AI euphoria, Fed rate cuts, and easing trade tensions.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High conviction demonstrated through meaningful position increases in CATL, specific target prices for exits like Fujitsu, and detailed fundamental analysis supporting investment decisions. Clear articulation of investment theses and structural drivers indicates strong belief in positioning.
Growth Outlook
Manager expresses positive outlook on global markets driven by AI euphoria, Fed rate cuts, and easing trade tensions. Specific optimism around Chinese policy support and structural growth drivers in healthcare and technology sectors, though tempered by some regional concerns.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio positioning shows moderate risk appetite with selective additions to growth areas like AI and China tech, while maintaining defensive positioning through gold exposure. Short positioning indicates some hedging, though manager is actively deploying capital in specific opportunities.
Capital Deployment
Moderate deployment activity with selective additions to Barrick, CATL, Tencent, and new healthcare positions, balanced by exits from semiconductor names and utilities. Portfolio changes suggest active but measured capital deployment rather than aggressive scaling.
Forward Guidance
Manager indicates continued selective deployment in AI-related investments and China given policy support, while maintaining defensive positioning. Forward guidance suggests cautious optimism with focus on quality companies and structural growth drivers.
Language Signal
Language reflects net positive sentiment with frequent references to opportunities, strong performance, and attractive valuations. Terms like 'exuberance', 'robust', and 'incrementally positive' outweigh risk-related language, though manager acknowledges some competitive and macro concerns.
Perceived Risk
Moderate risk perception with acknowledgment of circular AI investment concerns, political uncertainty in France and Japan, and competitive pressures in Chinese food delivery. Manager maintains short positioning as hedge against market risks while pursuing selective opportunities.
Opportunity Density
Strong opportunity density indicated by active portfolio changes across multiple regions and sectors. Manager identifies specific opportunities in AI, Chinese tech, healthcare, and defensive commodities, suggesting abundant selective opportunities despite some market concerns.
Time Horizon
Long-term orientation evident in focus on structural drivers like AI adoption, demographic healthcare trends, and energy transition. References to multi-year catalysts like Barrick's Fourmile mine development and Merck's pipeline development indicate patient capital approach.
