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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies."
Crypto Native Capital delivered a strong Q3 2025 return of +10.6% (outperforming Bitcoin's +6.5%), bringing its inception-to-date return to +115.4%. Despite these gains, the fund is actively shifting to a highly defensive posture, warning of extreme late-cycle excess. Specifically, the manager identifies a dangerous bubble in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like MicroStrategy (Strategy), Metaplanet, and ETHZilla, which have raised over $102 billion this year to buy crypto. These entities issue dilutive equity and high-risk debt to buy tokens, relying on unsustainable NAV premiums that are now rapidly compressing. To shield the fund from the inevitable forced liquidations of this systemic leverage, Crypto Native Capital is moving to a target of 25% cash (utilizing safe yield vehicles like money market funds and the market-neutral Hyperliquid HLP vault). Additionally, the fund is completely liquidating all altcoin exposures (including Ethereum and Solana) to consolidate exclusively into Bitcoin and cash by year-end, preparing to aggressively buy the projected 50-65% cycle correction from forced sellers.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment remained balanced with selective rotation across positions. Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates low conviction language: Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a above average conviction orientation. Crypto Native Capital is raising cash to 25% and liquidating all altcoins to prepare for an expected 50-65% crypto market crash triggered by the unwinding of highly levered Digital...
