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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming Japanese small-caps while warning of valuation risks in US equities."
For Q3 2025, Leaven Partners, LP returned 11.0% (35.3% YTD), outperforming key benchmarks for the quarter. The manager highlights a structural transition in global markets where international developed markets, particularly Japan, are outperforming US equities. Analysis shows that the historical outperformance of the US market over 35 years has been primarily driven by multiple expansion rather than superior earnings growth, suggesting that current high valuations are unsustainable. Additionally, the letter touches on the growing corporate trend of adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. While remaining structurally agnostic on cryptocurrencies, the manager details a highly successful short-term transaction in Toho Lamac (7422.T)—a shoe wholesaler bought as a deep-value play that surged 87% in less than three months after announcing plans to purchase BTC and ETH, allowing the fund to exit with a significant profit.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains above average conviction: Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Leaven Partners posted a strong 11.0% return in Q3 2025, driven by an 87% gain on Japanese shoe wholesaler Toho Lamac. The manager remains highly constructive on cheap, reforming J...
