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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Resilient Asset Management 2025 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Resilient Asset Management)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2025 Letter Analysis

Resilient Asset Management Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Resilient Asset Management. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"International markets are outperforming US markets in 2025, validating global diversification. Manager warns AI investments face dot-com bubble risks, citing JDS Uniphase's 99.8% collapse."

Executive Summary

Resilient Asset Management's Q3 2025 letter emphasizes the importance of global diversification as international markets have outperformed US markets this year. Manager Christopher Flis warns about AI investment risks, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble and citing JDS Uniphase's 99.8% decline as a cautionary tale. He questions whether companies like OpenAI can achieve the massive revenue growth needed to justify their capital investments, noting OpenAI needs to increase revenue 10x while even Google took 14 years for such growth. The firm gains AI exposure through S&P 500 holdings including Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia rather than concentrated bets. Flis uses AI as an assistant but not for final recommendations due to accuracy concerns in financial planning. The letter discusses the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's tax implications and emphasizes year-end tax planning. The manager maintains that market downturns are inevitable and investors should adjust expectations accordingly while benefiting from diversification across old and new economy sectors.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

75%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (75%)

Manager demonstrates high conviction in diversification principles and AI valuation concerns, using specific historical examples like JDSU and detailed financial analysis of OpenAI's revenue requirements. Strong conviction evident in policy statements about AI usage and international exposure.

Growth Outlook

15%

BearishBullish

Bearish (15%)

Manager expresses cautious optimism about 2025 being a 'very nice year for marketable securities' and notes markets have 'shrugged off' tariff impacts. However, this is tempered by explicit warnings that 'market downturns are a when, not an if' and concerns about AI valuation bubbles.

Risk Appetite

10%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (10%)

Positioning reflects balanced risk appetite with diversified global exposure and S&P 500 holdings for AI exposure rather than concentrated bets. Manager explicitly avoids direct AI investments due to valuation concerns, showing measured risk management rather than aggressive deployment.

Capital Deployment

0%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (0%)

No specific information provided about cash level changes or active capital deployment activities. Manager discusses maintaining existing diversified positioning rather than indicating new deployment or de-risking activities.

Forward Guidance

5%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (5%)

Forward guidance is cautious with warnings about inevitable market downturns and AI valuation risks. Manager emphasizes defensive positioning through diversification and avoiding concentrated technology bets, suggesting a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressive capital deployment.

Language Signal

20%

BearishBullish

Bearish (20%)

Language contains mixed signals with positive terms like 'very nice year' and 'march upward' balanced against cautionary language about 'reality checks,' 'carnage,' and 'JDSU-like' corrections. Net balance slightly positive due to market performance acknowledgment.

Perceived Risk

70%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (70%)

Manager expresses significant concern about AI valuation bubbles, drawing explicit parallels to dot-com crash and JDSU's 99.8% decline. Emphasizes that market downturns are inevitable and warns about rapid technological change mixing poorly with outsized returns.

Opportunity Density

60%

ScarceAbundant

Selective (60%)

Manager sees selective opportunities in international markets which have outperformed, and identifies AI exposure through established S&P 500 companies. However, expresses caution about direct AI investments, suggesting moderate opportunity density in current environment.

Time Horizon

80%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (80%)

Manager demonstrates long-term perspective by comparing 25-year performance of Coca-Cola versus JDSU and discussing Google's 14-year growth trajectory. Emphasis on diversification and avoiding timing markets suggests patient, multi-year investment approach.