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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, while staying completely clear of US small caps."
In their Third Quarter 2025 Asset Allocation Outlook, Confluence Investment Management outlines key adjustments across their five multi-asset portfolios. Citing lower recession risks, they have increased overall equity exposure, specifically raising allocations to international developed markets (notably Europe) which benefit from attractive valuations and dollar weakness. Domestically, they have moved to an even-weighted 50/50 growth-value split, exited Consumer Staples overweight positions, and remain completely void of US small-cap stocks due to tariff and capital cost headwinds. In fixed income, they utilize a barbell duration strategy with heavy allocations to Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) alongside high-quality BB credit. Gold is maintained globally as a systemic buffer.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains above average conviction: Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is above average conviction: Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Confluence has actively pivoted toward higher risk assets by expanding exposures to international developed equities and balancing domestic equities at a 50/50 growth-value split, ...
