Browse the world's most comprehensive database of hedge fund investor letters, sorted by recent quarter. Access primary source research from leading institutional managers.
| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Oldfield Partners. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.
"Value investing is experiencing redemption with OP portfolios at 10x P/E ratios. US fiscal fragility and policy volatility are undermining American exceptionalism, shifting focus to European and Asian markets."
Richard Oldfield argues that value investing is experiencing redemption in the first half of 2025, with all OP portfolios maintaining average price-earnings ratios of about 10, following Ben Graham's maximum multiple principle. The manager contrasts speculative excess in cryptocurrencies and art markets with their focus on real assets and cash flow. A key theme is the shifting spotlight away from US exceptionalism due to policy volatility and fiscal weakness, with the US debt-to-GDP ratio worsening 25% since 2011 while Europe remains stable. Germany's policy shift toward large-scale capital investment from a strong fiscal position represents a catalyst for European markets. Asian markets like Korea, trading at nine times earnings, are gaining attention after years in the doldrums. Even the UK benefits from low valuations and a 12% savings rate versus under 4% in the US. The tariff-related market dip in April provided deployment opportunities for investors with cash. Oldfield emphasizes adherence to Graham's principles of having right general principles and the character to stick to them, positioning for opportunities in undervalued markets outside the US.
Sign in or create a free account to unlock full commentary, extracted equity pitches, and direct outbound manager source links with your 3 quarterly credits.
Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The managers demonstrate high conviction in their value investing philosophy and specific investment decisions. They provide detailed analysis of new investments like Kyocera and Bunzl with specific upside targets (40%+ for both), and maintain strong views on market valuations and dollar strength despite underperformance.
Growth Outlook
The managers express strong pessimism about market conditions, describing them as extreme with fundamental bubbles in US markets and dollar strength. They reference the Shiller P/E at 38x as historically associated with near-zero real returns over the subsequent decade, and characterize current conditions as far from fundamental normality.
Risk Appetite
The positioning reflects a cautious, defensive approach focused on value and diversification rather than aggressive risk-taking. The managers emphasize maintaining well-diversified portfolios and avoiding expensive markets, suggesting a risk-off posture despite some selective new investments.
Capital Deployment
The managers made selective new investments in Kyocera and Bunzl while selling BT and SS&C as they approached fair value. This suggests modest net deployment activity, with capital being rotated from fairly valued positions to more attractive opportunities rather than aggressive deployment or significant cash raising.
Forward Guidance
The forward guidance is notably pessimistic, stating there remains a long way to go before markets return to fundamental normality. This suggests the managers expect continued challenging conditions and are not optimistic about near-term market prospects.
Language Signal
The language contains significant bearish signals including references to bubbles, unsustainable conditions, expensive valuations, and soap opera-like market conditions. While there are some positive references to specific opportunities, the overall tone emphasizes risk and overvaluation.
Perceived Risk
The managers perceive very high systemic risk, describing fundamental bubbles in US markets and dollar strength, unsustainable twin deficits, and extreme valuation levels. They reference geopolitical tensions and characterize the environment as far from normal, indicating elevated risk perception across multiple dimensions.
Opportunity Density
While the managers see selective opportunities in undervalued areas like their portfolio companies and specific new investments, they emphasize the scarcity of attractive opportunities given expensive broader markets. The focus on finding better opportunities elsewhere when selling positions suggests moderate but limited opportunity density.
Time Horizon
The managers demonstrate a patient, long-term approach consistent with value investing principles. Their reference to historical valuation metrics, multi-decade track records of companies like Bunzl, and expectation that markets have a long way to go before normality suggests a medium to long-term investment horizon.
