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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"ASEAN small-cap value fund down 6.1% in 2024 after strong Q4 selloff despite excellent fundamentals. Portfolio trades at 5x PE with 20% growth rates."
Ross & Van Compernolle's ASEAN-focused fund experienced a challenging Q4 2024, declining 14% despite strong underlying fundamentals, finishing the year down 6.1% after a strong first nine months (+9.6%). The fund successfully exited several positions in the first nine months, including offshore services companies BKM and DHML with 25% and 50% returns respectively, and Thai holdings IVL and DUSIT with 25% and 40% returns. Despite Q4 weakness attributed to Trump-related uncertainty and currency headwinds, 95% of holdings reported above-expected 9M24 earnings, with 80% trading at 5x PE with 20% CAGR growth rates. The manager maintains a positive 2025 outlook, citing strong operating performance across holdings including logistics leader ASSA, electronics retailer ERAA benefiting from Apple's Indonesia expansion, cosmetic surgery leader MASTER, and food giant MYOR achieving record sales. Current market weakness is viewed as providing re-entry opportunities, with the fund positioned to benefit from continued ASEAN economic growth and FDI flows under the China+1 strategy.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High conviction evidenced by concentrated portfolio of 15 named positions with detailed individual analysis, specific valuation metrics (PE ratios), and explicit position sizing language. Manager provides detailed thesis for each holding with specific catalysts and timeframes.
Growth Outlook
Manager expresses cautious optimism about Trump presidency being net positive for ASEAN, citing potential war resolution and historical currency strength, but acknowledges recent market weakness and uncertainty around tariffs.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio remains fully invested in small-cap ASEAN names despite Q4 weakness. Manager views current weakness as opportunity to increase positions, indicating maintained risk appetite despite recent volatility.
Capital Deployment
Manager states current weakness is 'providing opportunities to re-enter, or increase our positions in current holdings,' indicating moderate deployment bias, though no specific cash level changes mentioned.
Forward Guidance
Manager explicitly states positive 2025 outlook based on strong operating performance and plans to use current weakness to re-enter or increase positions in holdings, showing clear deployment bias.
Language Signal
Mixed language with negative framing of Q4 as 'bloodbath' balanced by positive language around 'fantastic operating performance,' 'opportunities,' and 'confidence for continued growth.'
Perceived Risk
Moderate risk acknowledgment around Trump tariff uncertainty and Q4 market weakness, but manager frames these as temporary rather than systemic concerns, with confidence in underlying fundamentals.
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities in current holdings due to market weakness, with specific catalysts identified across multiple sectors including Apple expansion, medical tourism growth, and aviation recovery.
Time Horizon
Multi-year investment horizon evidenced by detailed fundamental analysis, focus on structural growth themes like ASEAN development and China+1 strategy, and willingness to hold through short-term volatility for long-term value realization.
