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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, 13D Activist Fund. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.
"Strong Q3 absolute returns of 8.88% despite lagging Russell 2000. Fund positioned for anticipated rotation from large cap growth to SMID cap value, supported by lower rates and increased M&A activity."
The 13D Activist Fund returned 8.88% net in Q3 2025 versus 12.39% for the Russell 2000, representing strong absolute performance but lagging relative returns. The fund anticipates a rotation from large cap growth to SMID cap value, driven by MAG 7 and AI stocks becoming overbought and investors allocating to overlooked market segments. This rotation should be assisted by lower interest rates favoring smaller companies and increased M&A activity. Activist success has flourished since the Universal Proxy Card implementation, with campaign success rates rising from 73% to 88%. The fund added five new activist positions including BILL Holdings, Performance Food Group, TripAdvisor, ViaSat, and Workiva, while exiting seven positions where catalysts were not materializing. Key themes include operational improvements at technology companies, potential M&A synergies in food distribution, and corporate governance enhancements. The fund believes activists like Jeff Smith, Scott Ferguson and Dan Loeb will generate significant alpha as value investing gains favor.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high confidence by actively rotating out of positions where catalysts stalled and building strong, detailed thesis-driven investments in new activist targets.
Growth Outlook
The manager anticipates a favorable market rotation from overbought large-cap growth stocks into undervalued SMID-cap value stocks, supported by lower interest rates and increased M&A.
Risk Appetite
The fund shows a healthy risk appetite by investing in complex special situations, corporate turnarounds, and governance reform targets while disciplined enough to exit positions with delayed catalysts.
Capital Deployment
The manager was highly active during the quarter, exiting seven positions and aggressively deploying capital into five new high-conviction activist holdings.
Forward Guidance
Forward expectations are strong, driven by expectations of rising activist success rates, robust M&A activity, and multi-year operational turnaround targets like Rule of 40 transitions.
Language Signal
The language is highly assertive and confident, using terms like 'ecstatic', 'all-star team', and 'tremendous value' to describe portfolio developments and holdings.
Perceived Risk
While noting risks such as regulatory/FTC antitrust scrutiny, dual-class founder control, and market macro trends, the manager views heavily discounted valuations as offering significant downside protection.
Opportunity Density
The document highlights an abundant deal environment with flourishing activist activity, high campaign success rates, and numerous compelling targets across technology, food distribution, and defense sectors.
Time Horizon
The fund maintains a long-term strategic focus on multi-year board engagements, operational margin improvements, and strategic alternative evaluations.
