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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Resilient Asset Management argues against market timing during the 2023 banking crisis, showing that 96.5% of S&P 500 returns from 2002-2022 came from just 30 trading days. The firm advocates for long-term investing with timeless principles like emergency funds and disciplined spending rather than attempting to predict market movements."
Christopher Flis of Resilient Asset Management addresses the 2023 banking crisis by advocating against market timing and emphasizing timeless investment principles. The letter argues that successful market timing requires being correct twice on both buy and sell decisions, which is extremely difficult given that 96.5% of S&P 500 returns from 2002-2022 were earned on just 30 trading days out of 5,200 total trading days. Seven of the ten best trading days occurred within 15 days of the worst trading days, making timing nearly impossible. The manager recommends maintaining core financial principles including emergency funds, spending less than earned, and avoiding market overreactions. Rather than attempting to time markets based on recession fears or banking concerns, investors should remain fully invested as long-term participants to guarantee participation in the best market days. The firm positions clients with money on sidelines only for strategic purposes or at client direction, never for market timing purposes.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The manager expresses strong conviction about the futility of market timing, supported by specific data showing 96.5% of returns came from 30 days over 20 years. However, no individual positions are named or sized, and the letter focuses on philosophy rather than specific investment decisions.
Growth Outlook
The manager acknowledges current threats including recession risk and inflationary concerns, but frames these as widely known factors already reflected in prices. The tone is constructive about long-term market participation despite near-term uncertainties.
Risk Appetite
The manager advocates for being fully invested as a long-term participant and explicitly opposes market timing. Most clients are not fully invested due to strategic needs, but this reflects planning rather than defensive positioning.
Capital Deployment
No specific cash level changes or deployment activity is described. The manager notes most clients are not fully invested for strategic reasons, but no net deployment or de-risking activity is indicated for the quarter.
Forward Guidance
The manager provides clear guidance to remain invested and avoid market timing, but acknowledges keeping money on sidelines for strategic purposes. The bias is toward staying invested rather than deploying new capital.
Language Signal
Language includes risk-aware terms like banking crisis, recession threat, and inflationary concerns, but balances these with opportunity-focused language about long-term investing and being in the game for the best market days.
Perceived Risk
The manager acknowledges banking crisis concerns and mentions recession threats and inflationary concerns as current factors, but frames these as widely known risks already reflected in market prices rather than systemic threats requiring defensive action.
Opportunity Density
While no specific opportunities are identified, the manager's advocacy for remaining fully invested and emphasis on long-term market participation suggests a constructive view of the opportunity set, though selectivity is implied through strategic cash positioning.
Time Horizon
The letter strongly emphasizes long-term investing as the preferred approach, with repeated references to long-term focus and being a long-term market participant. The 20-year S&P 500 data analysis reinforces this multi-decade perspective on investment success.
