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Fund Returns
Annualized+9.9%
Positioning StanceConstructive
GeographyUS
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"McIntyre delivered 28% net returns through concentrated catalyst-driven investing, with SHC litigation settlement and MSGE spinoff driving outperformance. The manager rotated from MSGE to SPHR post-spinoff, viewing the Sphere development as undervalued despite strong U2 ticket demand."
Executive Summary
McIntyre Partnerships delivered 28% net returns in Q1 2023, significantly outperforming the Russell 2000 Value's -1% decline. The fund's concentrated portfolio of five positions representing 81% of assets benefited from idiosyncratic, catalyst-driven holdings that performed independently of broader market volatility. Key contributors included SHC's 100% rally following litigation settlement, MSGE's 34% gain ahead of its spinoff completion, and OSW's 33% rise on cruise recovery momentum. The manager completed a substantial rotation from MSGE to SPHR following the spinoff, viewing SPHR as more attractively priced given the market's skeptical valuation of the Sphere development despite strong early ticket demand. A new position in STHO, a liquidating spinoff, offers 22% annualized yield potential. While maintaining economic caution amid recession fears and bank sector turmoil, the manager remains largely invested due to the portfolio's defensive characteristics and near-term catalysts, though applying exceptionally high standards for new cyclical investments.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
78%
Market Conviction
High conviction evidenced by concentrated portfolio with five positions representing 81% of assets, specific position sizing discussions, and detailed fundamental analysis of individual holdings. The manager provides explicit valuations, catalysts, and timeframes for major positions like MSGE/SPHR and STHO, demonstrating strong conviction in named holdings.
38%
Growth Outlook
The manager expresses caution on the economy and shares widely held recession fears due to rising rates and bank sector turmoil. While acknowledging the strong Q1 market rally, the manager notes the subsequent pullback and maintains a defensive stance toward new cyclical investments.
57%
Risk Appetite
The fund maintains 92% net long exposure with concentrated positions, showing continued risk appetite. However, the manager has adjusted position sizes in response to rallies and maintains an exceptionally high bar for new investments, particularly in cyclical sectors.
45%
Capital Deployment
The manager adjusted position sizes in response to rallies, reduced WMG holdings, and initiated one new position in STHO. However, the overall stance is cautious with an exceptionally high bar for new investments and hope for further declines in tracked opportunities before deployment.
53%
Forward Guidance
The manager plans to maintain sizeable investments in current holdings and considers increasing the STHO position, but expresses hope that tracked cyclical opportunities might fall 30-50% before deployment. This suggests a patient, opportunistic approach rather than aggressive deployment.
55%
Language Signal
Language is balanced with both opportunity-focused terms around specific holdings (attractive pricing, value-unlocking, strong demand) and risk-aware language regarding the broader economy (caution, recession fears, turmoil). Slightly more constructive than bearish overall.
65%
Perceived Risk
The manager explicitly discusses recession risks from rising rates and bank sector turmoil, execution risks for the Sphere project, refinancing risks for MSG Networks, and potential cost overruns. Risk discussion is substantial and specific, though balanced with opportunity identification.
45%
Opportunity Density
The manager has identified a handful of cyclical investments that could double in five years but hopes for further declines before investing. Current opportunities are characterized as requiring exceptional selectivity, suggesting a moderately sparse opportunity set.
65%
Time Horizon
The manager focuses on catalysts within 12 months for current holdings while expressing willingness to hold SHC for the foreseeable future and expecting MSGE shares to double over five years. STHO liquidation spans four years. This suggests a medium-term investment horizon of 2-5 years for most positions.