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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Curreen Capital 2023 Q1 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Curreen Capital)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q1 2023 Letter Analysis

Curreen Capital Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Curreen Capital. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

QTD-0.34%

Annualized+11%

Positioning StanceConstructive

GeographyUS

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Curreen Capital maintains defensive positioning with 50% in Treasuries due to inverted yield curve concerns, supported by historical analysis showing 75% of inversions lead to 20%+ declines."

Executive Summary

Curreen Capital returned -0.34% in Q1 2023, underperforming the S&P 500's 7.49% gain. The manager maintains a highly defensive stance with about half the fund in short-term Treasuries, driven by concerns over the inverted yield curve. Historical analysis of yield curve inversions since 1953 shows that 6 out of 8 inversions led to 20%+ market declines within three years, with markets typically taking 2+ years to bottom after initial inversion. Despite this caution, the fund made three small purchases during the quarter, adding to existing positions in Credit Acceptance and Frontdoor, and initiating a new position in Advantage Solutions. The manager's strategy focuses on owning good businesses at low prices while avoiding the need for perfect market timing. Key holdings include GetBusy, a UK-based document exchange provider, and Nilörn Group, a European clothing label company generating 30% returns on capital. The approach emphasizes building an attractive portfolio during a risky period without requiring superhuman market-timing abilities.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

65%

CautiousHigh

Moderate (65%)

Manager demonstrates moderate-high conviction through detailed historical analysis supporting defensive stance, specific entry prices for three named positions, and clear policy framework. Holdings like Nilörn Group described with specific metrics (30% ROC), showing research depth.

Growth Outlook

20%

BearishBullish

Bearish (20%)

Manager is explicitly cautious about market environment, dedicating significant analysis to historical yield curve inversions that show 75% probability of 20%+ declines. States inversions are not good news and current period has greater risk of substantial downturn.

Risk Appetite

30%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (30%)

Portfolio is defensively positioned with about 50% in short-term Treasuries. Making only small purchases (1-2% positions) rather than aggressive deployment, reflecting reduced risk appetite during uncertain environment.

Capital Deployment

25%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (25%)

Significant defensive positioning with about 50% in Treasuries represents substantial cash allocation. Only small purchases made (1-2% positions each), indicating net de-risking stance rather than aggressive deployment.

Forward Guidance

35%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (35%)

Manager plans to continue cautious approach, making small opportunistic purchases while maintaining defensive Treasury allocation. Explicitly states this cautious stance may continue for extended period until inversion resolves.

Language Signal

28%

BearishBullish

Bearish (28%)

Language emphasizes risk and caution throughout, with extensive discussion of historical downturns, substantial declines, and risky periods. While some positive language about owned businesses, overall tone is dominated by risk awareness.

Perceived Risk

80%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (80%)

Manager perceives high systemic risk based on extensive historical analysis of yield curve inversions. Explicitly states current period has greater risk of substantial downturn, with detailed discussion of potential 20%+ declines and multi-year bottoming process.

Opportunity Density

45%

ScarceAbundant

Selective (45%)

Manager sees selective opportunities in individual names (made three purchases) but characterizes overall environment as requiring extreme selectivity. Owns good businesses at low prices but maintains defensive stance due to macro environment.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

Manager demonstrates multi-year perspective, analyzing 70 years of historical data and expecting potential 2+ year period before market bottoms. Willing to hold quality businesses through volatility without requiring perfect timing, indicating patient capital approach.