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Fund Returns
Annualized+8.87%
Positioning StanceConstructive
GeographyEmerging markets, Asia, LatAM
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"EM equity strategy underperformed in Q1 despite banking sector resilience during US/European crisis. Manager initiated fintech position in Kaspi.kz and adjusted bank holdings based on valuations."
Executive Summary
Harding Loevner's Emerging Markets strategy returned 3.5% gross in Q1 2023, trailing the MSCI EM Index's 4.0% return. The quarter was marked by a regional banking crisis in the US and Europe, though EM banks proved relatively resilient due to better risk management practices and shorter asset duration. The manager adjusted bank holdings based on valuations, adding to Banco Bradesco while trimming others. A key new position was initiated in Kaspi.kz, Kazakhstan's leading fintech company with 67% market share in digital payments and 60%+ cash flow returns. The strategy emphasizes companies with disciplined capital allocation exemplified by holdings like Localiza and Maruti Suzuki, which maintained financial strength during the pandemic. China's market rallied following COVID restriction lifting, though mixed earnings and export weakness led to additional stimulus measures. Semiconductor stocks performed well on TSMC's recovery projections for H2 2023. The manager expects the current IT services slowdown to be temporary while maintaining focus on structural growth themes in digital transformation and fintech across emerging markets.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
68%
Market Conviction
Manager demonstrates high conviction through specific position sizing decisions, detailed company analysis, and clear investment thesis around capital allocation quality. Names specific holdings with detailed rationale, though maintains diversified approach across multiple themes and regions.
63%
Growth Outlook
Manager expresses cautious optimism about China's recovery and semiconductor cyclical upturn, but acknowledges global economic risks from higher rates and mixed earnings results. Positive on structural themes but measured in overall market assessment.
68%
Risk Appetite
Portfolio shows selective risk-taking with new positions in Kaspi.kz and Globant, while making valuation-based adjustments to bank holdings. Maintains exposure to growth themes but with disciplined approach to capital allocation quality.
15%
Capital Deployment
Portfolio activity shows rotation rather than net deployment - initiated two new positions (Kaspi.kz, Globant) while trimming others (Itaú, Kotak, EPAM, TCS). No indication of significant cash level changes, suggesting balanced reallocation of capital.
70%
Forward Guidance
Manager expects IT services slowdown to be short-lived and anticipates continued growth in fintech and digital transformation. Constructive on structural themes while remaining watchful of cyclical risks in banking sector.
65%
Language Signal
Language balances opportunity identification (fintech revolution, recovery prospects) with risk awareness (uncertain conditions, mixed results). More opportunity-focused than risk-focused but maintains cautious tone throughout.
65%
Perceived Risk
Manager identifies multiple specific risks including banking crisis spillover, interest rate impacts on asset quality, macroeconomic uncertainty affecting IT demand, and Chinese export weakness. Discusses risk management practices extensively throughout the letter.
60%
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities in fintech revolution, semiconductor recovery, and disciplined capital allocators, but emphasizes the need for selectivity and valuation discipline. Opportunities exist but require careful screening for quality characteristics.
70%
Time Horizon
Manager discusses multi-year themes like digital transformation and fintech penetration, expects strong earnings growth over the next decade for Globant, and emphasizes long-term capital allocation discipline. Some near-term catalyst dependency but primarily focused on structural trends.