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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"AI infrastructure boom drives technology leadership with Nvidia delivering extraordinary results and announcing major partnerships. Fed cuts rates despite political pressure while elevated valuations above Dot-Com levels warrant caution."
TEAM Asset Management navigated a strong Q3 2025 as AI fever gripped markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh records. The Magnificent 7 recaptured leadership following extraordinary results from Nvidia, which delivered $47 billion revenue and announced major investments in Intel and OpenAI partnerships. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a 25 basis point rate cut despite political pressure, with markets pricing additional easing ahead. The firm maintains healthy US technology exposure while positioning for ex-US opportunities, evidenced by the MSCI World ex-USA breaking an 18-year trading range. Chinese equities surged 15.7% with internet companies trading at substantial discounts to US peers. Physical gold and silver exposure serves as portfolio insurance against dollar debasement, with gold touching new highs amid central bank accumulation. The manager disposed of G7 government bonds due to fiscal sustainability concerns, focusing instead on intermediate-duration corporate credits. While AI capex spending of $350-400 billion annually supports the technology thesis, elevated Shiller P/E ratios above 40X warrant selective positioning.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Manager demonstrates moderate-high conviction through specific positioning decisions like disposing of all G7 government bonds and maintaining precious metals exposure. Clear thesis on AI infrastructure and ex-US opportunities with specific allocation targets shown in strategy table.
Growth Outlook
Manager acknowledges strong AI-driven performance and Fed easing but expresses caution about elevated valuations, comparing Shiller P/E to Dot-Com bubble levels. Constructive on opportunities but balanced with risk awareness.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio maintains healthy technology exposure but shows defensive positioning through precious metals holdings and avoidance of government bonds. Selective approach with readiness to act swiftly if conditions change.
Capital Deployment
No specific cash level changes mentioned. Manager describes maintaining current positions and selective approach rather than aggressive deployment. Introduction of silver exposure suggests minor incremental deployment.
Forward Guidance
Manager emphasizes remaining ready to act swiftly and focuses on selective opportunities rather than aggressive deployment. Cautious stance on valuations with emphasis on risk management.
Language Signal
Language includes positive terms like 'extraordinary', 'phenomenal quarter', and 'attractive opportunities' but balanced with risk warnings about 'bubble' comparisons and 'vulnerable' debt markets.
Perceived Risk
Manager explicitly compares current Shiller P/E to Dot-Com bubble levels and discusses multiple systemic risks including fiscal sustainability, inflation from tariffs, and structural pension fund selling. Detailed risk analysis throughout the letter.
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities in ex-US markets, Chinese internet companies, and precious metals while acknowledging elevated US valuations. Describes 'more attractive opportunities outside of the US' but emphasizes selectivity.
Time Horizon
Manager explicitly states anticipating holding precious metals exposure 'for several years to come' and describes secular bull market cycle. Focus on long-term themes like AI infrastructure buildout and structural dollar debasement suggests multi-year investment horizon.
