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Fund Returns
QTD+1.45%
Annualized+11%
Positioning StanceConstructive
GeographyUS
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Curreen Capital deployed selectively in Q2, adding to its first SPAC investment (Advantage Solutions) at attractive valuations despite sector skepticism. The concentrated portfolio targets misunderstood businesses from corporate actions, maintaining 47% cash while hunting for compelling opportunities."
Executive Summary
Curreen Capital returned 1.45% in Q2 2023 with 47% cash, reflecting the manager's cautious stance while selectively deploying capital. The fund added to Advantage Solutions, marking its first SPAC investment despite viewing the category as generally unattractive. Manager Christian Ryther sees Advantage Solutions as an excellent business temporarily impaired by COVID's impact on in-store services and labor cost inflation, trading at less than 10x trough earnings with covenant-light debt maturing in 2028. The portfolio consists of five concentrated positions including Credit Acceptance (subprime auto lending), Frontdoor (home service plans), GetBusy (document exchange systems), and Nilörn Group (clothing labels), all described as trading at attractive upside-to-downside ratios. The strategy focuses on spinoffs, self-tenders, and other corporate actions to find misunderstood businesses. Despite maintaining caution, Ryther continues hunting for compelling opportunities as markets create new dislocations, sometimes in unexpected places like the SPAC wreckage.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
72%
Market Conviction
Manager demonstrates high conviction through concentrated portfolio of five named positions, detailed analysis of Advantage Solutions with specific valuation metrics (less than 10x trough earnings), and willingness to invest in first SPAC despite category skepticism. Each position is described with specific business characteristics and investment rationale.
38%
Growth Outlook
Manager expresses caution throughout the letter, maintaining 47% cash and describing himself as 'very cautious.' While he acknowledges the market continues to create opportunities, the overall tone suggests wariness about current conditions.
57%
Risk Appetite
Portfolio is positioned defensively with 47% cash, but manager is selectively adding to positions like Advantage Solutions. The high cash level indicates risk-off positioning, but willingness to deploy capital into specific opportunities shows modest risk appetite.
15%
Capital Deployment
Manager added to Advantage Solutions position but maintains 47% cash, indicating selective deployment rather than aggressive capital allocation. The high cash level suggests net neutral to slightly positive deployment activity.
55%
Forward Guidance
Manager states he 'continues to look for compelling investments' and notes markets 'continue to create new opportunities,' suggesting mild optimism about finding investments. However, the emphasis on remaining 'very cautious' tempers the forward-looking sentiment.
60%
Language Signal
Language includes positive terms like 'compelling investments,' 'attractive upside-to-downside ratio,' and 'excellent business,' but is balanced by cautious language and risk acknowledgment. The net balance leans slightly positive but is measured.
45%
Perceived Risk
Manager acknowledges risks in Advantage Solutions (debt burden, operating challenges) and maintains high cash levels due to caution, but doesn't express systemic market concerns. Risk perception is moderate, focused on individual position risks rather than macro threats.
55%
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities in spinoffs, self-tenders, and corporate actions, noting markets 'continue to create new opportunities.' The 47% cash suggests opportunities are not abundant, but the continued search and recent deployment indicates moderate opportunity density.
75%
Time Horizon
Investment approach focuses on businesses with multi-year recovery stories (Advantage Solutions debt matures 2028) and companies with long track records (Credit Acceptance gaining share for two decades). The patient capital approach and willingness to hold through temporary problems indicates a long-term horizon.