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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Van Der Mandele Arar Fund 2023 Q2 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Van Der Mandele Arar Fund)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q2 2023 Letter Analysis

Van Der Mandele Arar Fund Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Van Der Mandele Arar Fund. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Positioning StanceConstructive

GeographyGlobal

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"ARAR Fund outperformed significantly in July with 4.67% gains, maintaining concentrated cyclical positioning despite recession expectations. Manager sees value opportunities in quality companies with strong balance sheets while defensive stocks trade at excessive multiples."

Executive Summary

Van Der Mandele's ARAR Fund delivered strong July performance of 4.67%, following June's 8.74% gain, significantly outperforming the 6.3% market return. The fund maintains a concentrated 17-stock portfolio with a cyclical tilt, capitalizing on what the manager views as market mispricing between expensive defensive stocks and undervalued cyclicals. Top holdings include OneWater Marine, Alphawave Semiconductors, Jackson Financial, Stellantis, and Kiwetinohk Energy. July earnings were mixed, with oil companies and M/I Homes performing well while OneWater Marine disappointed with halved profit guidance. The manager added freight company StealthGas, which gained 70% since purchase. Despite expecting a recession within 12 months, the portfolio remains positioned in cyclicals due to their superior risk-reward profiles versus defensive stocks trading at lofty multiples. Key risks include continued earnings deterioration and macro uncertainty, while the manager sees opportunities in companies with strong balance sheets trading at discounted valuations.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

78%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (78%)

Concentrated 17-stock portfolio with named top 5 holdings and specific position sizing (OneWater 15.8%, Alphawave 10.7%). Manager provides detailed thesis on Kiwetinohk with specific valuation metrics and clear positioning rationale despite macro headwinds.

Growth Outlook

38%

BearishBullish

Neutral (38%)

Manager expects recession within 12 months and notes macro uncertainty, but frames this as creating opportunities rather than requiring defensive positioning. Mixed outlook with cautious recession call balanced by constructive view on market mispricing.

Risk Appetite

40%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (40%)

Portfolio maintains cyclical tilt and low 1.3% cash position despite recession expectations. Manager actively adding new positions like StealthGas and trimming winners rather than de-risking, showing moderate risk appetite.

Capital Deployment

15%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (15%)

Cash position is low at 1.3% and described as temporary from portfolio adjustments. Manager added new StealthGas position and trimmed outperformers, indicating rotation rather than net deployment. Plans to deploy remaining cash in coming weeks.

Forward Guidance

30%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (30%)

Manager plans to deploy temporary cash position in coming weeks and doesn't want to be on sidelines despite expecting earnings drought. Selective deployment bias with focus on long-term positioning.

Language Signal

20%

BearishBullish

Bearish (20%)

Language includes both opportunity terms (attractive, discount, outperform) and risk terms (deteriorate, disappointing, drought). Slightly more constructive than cautious but balanced overall.

Perceived Risk

65%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (65%)

Manager explicitly expects recession within 12 months and discusses multiple risk factors including earnings deterioration, macro uncertainty, and specific company disappointments like OneWater Marine. Meaningful risk discussion throughout letter.

Opportunity Density

70%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (70%)

Manager sees attractive opportunities in cyclicals trading at discounts while defensive stocks are overpriced. Describes ability to tap into stocks less desirable for others and identifies specific value propositions across portfolio holdings.

Time Horizon

65%

Short-TermLong-Term

Multi-Year (65%)

Manager discusses 12-month outlook for earnings and expects to be astounded by BasicFit profitability 12 months from now. Focus on long-term outperformance and willingness to hold through temporary earnings drought suggests multi-year investment horizon.