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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Trade policy volatility dominated 2025's first half, driving dramatic market swings between Q1 selloff and Q2 rebound. Despite tariff uncertainty causing inflation expectations to rise, actual inflation remained subdued."
The first half of 2025 was defined by dramatic trade policy shifts that created two distinct market environments. Q1 saw escalating tariffs and policy uncertainty drive the S&P 500 down over 15%, with defensive factors outperforming as investor sentiment turned cautious. Q2 brought de-escalation efforts, trade agreements, and renewed optimism, leading to a strong market rebound that fully reversed Q1 losses. The S&P 500 returned 6.1% for the half despite the volatility, ending near where it started the year. Tariff uncertainty caused inflation expectations to rise while actual inflation remained subdued, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady and adopt a wait-and-see approach. International stocks outperformed US markets for a second straight quarter, benefiting from dollar weakness. Looking ahead, the manager expects continued policy uncertainty but emphasizes that markets typically adapt to changing environments. The recommended approach is maintaining portfolio discipline and focusing on long-term goals rather than reacting to headline-driven volatility.
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