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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Exceptional Q2 performance of +20.4% driven by technology-focused growth positions including Uber's autonomous vehicle partnerships and InPost's European logistics expansion. Strong YTD outperformance of +21.6% versus market's +5.5% reflects disciplined focus on undervalued companies with execution capabilities."
The Wolf of Harcourt Street delivered exceptional Q2 2025 performance with a +20.4% return versus +10.4% for the S&P 500, marking the best quarterly performance since Q4 2020. The portfolio's YTD return of +21.6% significantly outpaced the market's +5.5%. Top contributors included UBER (+55%), MELI (+54%), SE (+51%), NU (+32%), and META (+26%). The manager added to positions in Uber at $85 despite its strong run, citing continued undervaluation and growing conviction in the autonomous vehicle opportunity through partnerships like Volkswagen's robotaxi. InPost was also increased, benefiting from European e-commerce logistics disruption and a major Debenhams partnership. The portfolio maintains exposure to AI beneficiaries like ASML, which trades attractively despite projected revenue growth from €32 billion to €52 billion by 2030. Strong performance has led to increased caution, with cash maintained above 4% as the manager focuses on existing high-conviction positions rather than aggressive deployment.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high conviction through concentrated positions and willingness to add to winners like Uber at higher prices. Specific position sizing is discussed (adding at $85 to Uber, maintaining largest holdings), and the manager expresses growing conviction in key names. However, the diversified nature of the portfolio across multiple sectors and the cautious cash position prevents a higher score.
Growth Outlook
The manager expresses mild optimism about specific opportunities but shows caution about broader market conditions. While bullish on individual holdings, the manager notes that strong short-term returns have made them cautious and they find greater satisfaction in outperforming during flat or down markets.
Risk Appetite
The manager is maintaining a defensive cash position of over 4% and has been slow to deploy capital despite strong performance. This indicates a cautious risk appetite and reduced willingness to add significant new exposure at current levels.
Capital Deployment
The manager is maintaining over 4% cash and has been slow to deploy capital built up last month. While some additions were made to existing positions (Uber, InPost), the overall stance is one of reduced deployment activity and increased cash holding, indicating mild de-risking.
Forward Guidance
The manager provides no clear directional bias for future deployment. They are explicitly cautious about deploying the cash built up and are monitoring rather than actively seeking new positions, indicating a neutral stance on future actions.
Language Signal
The language contains more bullish terms around specific holdings (undervalued, attractive, bullish, conviction growing) but is balanced by cautious language about market conditions and deployment. The net balance tilts slightly positive but is tempered by risk awareness.
Perceived Risk
The manager acknowledges that strong short-term returns have made them cautious and notes the importance of avoiding downside risks. While not expressing systemic concerns, there is clear awareness that current performance levels may not be sustainable and caution is warranted.
Opportunity Density
The manager sees selective opportunities in current holdings and maintains a buy list with specific names like SE and ASML. However, the cautious deployment stance and emphasis on selectivity suggests opportunities are more limited than in previous periods, requiring careful selection rather than broad deployment.
Time Horizon
The manager demonstrates a multi-year investment horizon, discussing five-year earnings compound expectations for InPost and 2030 projections for ASML. The willingness to hold through volatility and focus on long-term earnings power rather than short-term momentum indicates a patient, medium to long-term approach.
