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Fund Returns
QTD-7.5%
YTD-7.5%
Annualized+18.9%
Positioning StanceConstructive
Market CapLarge Cap
GeographyGlobal
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Manager actively repositioning across four tariff scenarios, adding defensive quality names like Procter & Gamble while trimming overvalued positions. Current market turmoil viewed as opportunity to buy quality businesses at attractive prices."
Executive Summary
The Artemis Global Select Fund declined 7.5% in Q1 2025, underperforming benchmarks as AI developments and trade policy uncertainty drove market volatility. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's low-cost breakthrough challenged western technology leadership, causing selloffs in Nvidia and other AI holdings. President Trump's rapid tariff implementation fundamentally changed market conditions, prompting the manager to develop a four-scenario framework ranging from policy rollback to global recession. Portfolio activity included new positions in defensive quality names like Procter & Gamble and opportunistic additions to Tetra Tech amid government spending concerns. The manager exited positions where valuations no longer reflected fundamentals, including Constellation Energy after M&A-driven outperformance. Defense spending catalysts emerged from NATO rearmament commitments, supporting aerospace holdings like Safran. European markets outperformed on rate cuts and better data, while China benefited from growth stimulus hopes. The manager views current turmoil as opportunity to acquire quality businesses at discounted prices, actively repositioning across tariff scenarios while maintaining focus on companies with strong competitive positions and earnings resilience.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
Market Conviction
75%
CautiousHigh
High Conviction (75%)
High conviction demonstrated through detailed four-scenario framework analysis, specific company thesis explanations, and decisive portfolio actions including both strategic exits and opportunistic additions based on fundamental analysis.
Growth Outlook
38%
BearishBullish
Neutral (38%)
Manager expresses concern about fundamentally changed market conditions due to tariff policies and acknowledges growing uncertainties, but also sees current turmoil as opportunity to buy quality businesses at discounted prices.
Risk Appetite
10%
DefensiveAggressive
Defensive (10%)
Portfolio positioning shows selective risk-taking with new positions in quality names and opportunistic additions, while maintaining defensive posture through exits of overvalued holdings and scenario-based risk management.
Capital Deployment
20%
De-riskingDeploying
De-risking (20%)
Moderate net deployment activity with new positions in Procter & Gamble and Tetra Tech, additions to Meta and Safran, balanced against exits from Constellation Energy, Lindt, SMC, ASML, and Fiserv, suggesting selective rebalancing rather than major directional changes.
Forward Guidance
43%
CautiousExpansionary
Neutral (43%)
Forward guidance emphasizes reassessing all holdings across negative scenarios and making defensive adjustments, though manager expresses intent to capitalize on market dislocations for quality acquisitions.
Language Signal
40%
BearishBullish
Balanced (40%)
Language contains significant risk-focused terms including 'turmoil', 'uncertainty', 'recession scenarios', and 'weaknesses in financial system', though balanced with opportunity-seeking language around quality businesses at discounted prices.
Perceived Risk
70%
Low RiskElevated
Elevated Risk (70%)
High perceived risk reflected in detailed scenario analysis including global recession and financial crisis possibilities, acknowledgment of fundamentally changed market conditions, and emphasis on policy uncertainty impacts across portfolio holdings.
Opportunity Density
60%
ScarceAbundant
Selective (60%)
Moderate opportunity density with manager identifying selective opportunities in quality businesses at discounted prices during market turmoil, though overall environment characterized by uncertainty and need for defensive positioning.
Time Horizon
65%
Short-TermLong-Term
Multi-Year (65%)
Medium-term horizon evidenced by scenario-based planning framework, willingness to add to positions trading at multi-year lows, and focus on quality businesses that can compound over time despite near-term volatility.