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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"AI fever and Fed easing drove exceptional Q3 performance with Nvidia leading technology gains and precious metals surging. Manager maintains US tech exposure while emphasizing undervalued ex-US opportunities, particularly Chinese internet stocks."
TEAM Asset Management delivered a comprehensive review of Q3 2025, highlighting the extraordinary performance of AI-related investments and precious metals. The AI theme dominated markets with Nvidia leading the charge through record revenues and strategic partnerships, while the broader Magnificent 7 recaptured market leadership. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered another pivot with a 25 basis point rate cut, providing further support to risk assets. Precious metals experienced a phenomenal quarter with gold up 19% and silver up 30%, driven by central bank accumulation and growing ETF inflows. The manager introduced silver exposure based on structural supply deficits and increasing industrial demand. Chinese equities broke out to decade highs, with internet companies trading at significant discounts to US counterparts. The portfolio maintains healthy US technology exposure while emphasizing ex-US opportunities and physical precious metals as insurance against fiscal irresponsibility. Key risks include elevated valuations with Shiller P/E at 40X and potential tariff-driven inflation, while catalysts include continued Fed easing and improving corporate earnings.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high conviction through specific positioning decisions including disposing of all G7 government bonds for gold and introducing silver exposure. Clear thesis articulation around AI, precious metals, and ex-US opportunities with specific rationale, though diversified multi-asset approach prevents maximum conviction scoring.
Growth Outlook
The manager expresses constructive optimism about markets, noting the S&P 500 adding $15 trillion in market cap and highlighting positive historical precedent for Fed cuts near market highs. However, this is tempered by concerns about elevated valuations with Shiller P/E at 40X and potential tariff-driven inflation risks.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio positioning reflects moderate risk appetite with healthy US technology exposure and precious metals as insurance. The manager disposed of government bonds in favor of gold and introduced silver, showing selective risk-taking while maintaining defensive elements through precious metals allocation.
Capital Deployment
Limited net deployment activity with primary changes being rotation from government bonds to precious metals and introduction of silver exposure. The manager emphasizes selectivity and readiness to act rather than active deployment, suggesting modest positive positioning changes without significant cash level movements.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance emphasizes selectivity and agility rather than aggressive deployment. The manager states readiness to act swiftly if technology tide turns and focuses on remaining selective across sectors and geographies, suggesting a cautious deployment bias rather than aggressive risk-taking.
Language Signal
Language is balanced between opportunity recognition (extraordinary, phenomenal, attractive) and risk awareness (vulnerable, concerns, skeptical). Positive language around AI and precious metals is offset by cautionary language about valuations and fiscal sustainability, resulting in neutral directional balance.
Perceived Risk
High risk perception evidenced by explicit warnings about Shiller P/E at 40X bubble levels, tariff inflation risks, fiscal sustainability concerns across G7, and structural pension fund selling pressure. The manager identifies multiple specific systemic risks while maintaining that extraordinary developments are being largely ignored by markets.
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities particularly in ex-US markets, citing attractive valuations in Chinese internet stocks, European banking sectors, and Asian AI supply chain companies. While acknowledging rich US valuations, identifies specific geographic and thematic opportunities requiring selectivity rather than broad-based deployment.
Time Horizon
Strong long-term orientation evidenced by multi-year precious metals thesis, expectation of holding mining exposure for several years, and focus on secular trends like AI infrastructure build-out. The manager emphasizes systematic process navigation through various market conditions rather than near-term catalyst dependency.
