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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa/Mastercard and European defense spending while avoiding overheated AI names."
Rodrigo delivered a mixed Q1 2026 performance, benefiting from European AI semiconductor positions (Suss, Soitec, Aixtron) and oil futures during the Iran conflict, though he sold AI positions too early due to valuation concerns. The historic AI rally created challenging market conditions where everything became correlated to AI exposure, forcing him to sell longs and initiate shorts as valuations stretched beyond reasonable future returns. He sees current AI semiconductors as discounting best-case scenarios three years out. The manager is pivoting toward quality value opportunities, particularly Visa and Mastercard at compressed multiples, while maintaining conviction in European defense spending driven by geopolitical wake-up calls. He views European companies as attractively priced off free cash flow rather than narratives, despite the region's structural challenges. Software faces existential threats from AI commoditization. His strategy emphasizes selective positioning to generate returns regardless of whether AI continues its vertical ascent or faces technical correction, keeping AI exposure limited while focusing on multi-year themes like European defense modernization.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates very low conviction language: Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a moderate conviction orientation. Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa...
