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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Iran conflict volatility drove Q1 selloff despite strong economic fundamentals and AI investment momentum. Oil surge to $120 reignited inflation fears, causing rotation from growth to value stocks."
Q1 2026 was marked by significant volatility as the Iran conflict drove oil prices toward $120 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns and triggering market selloffs before stocks rebounded to new highs by quarter-end. The S&P 500 declined 4.33% for the quarter despite the late rally. The conflict shifted investor focus from AI beneficiaries to companies potentially disrupted by AI, causing rotations out of growth stocks into value, small-cap, and alternative assets. Core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.1% before the energy shock, reinforcing concerns about a higher inflation regime. The US economy entered the quarter with strong fundamentals including healthy corporate balance sheets, ongoing AI infrastructure investment of $600bn, and reduced energy dependence compared to the 1970s. However, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation pressures, and Federal Reserve policy delays prompted a more cautious risk posture. Traditional bond diversification may prove less reliable in this environment, favoring shorter-duration fixed income strategies.
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