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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Q1 2026 saw oil prices surge 70% due to Middle East tensions, driving S&P 500 down 4.3% while diversified portfolios fared better. Market leadership rotated from mega-cap growth to value and small-caps."
QuadCap's Q1 2026 letter analyzes a volatile quarter where the S&P 500 declined 4.3% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and oil price spikes of over 70%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove crude oil to levels not seen since mid-2022, shifting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations from 2-3 cuts to zero cuts by quarter-end. Despite headline index weakness, diversification proved valuable as market leadership rotated dramatically. Value outperformed growth by over 12%, small-caps outperformed large-caps, and the equal-weight S&P 500 gained nearly 1%. AI disruption concerns led to a 30% decline in software stocks from peak levels, representing one of the largest non-recessionary drawdowns in over 30 years. Manufacturing data showed improvement before the conflict, and earnings estimates continue rising despite market volatility. The firm emphasizes that market decline was driven by uncertainty around oil, inflation, and Fed policy rather than fundamental deterioration, reinforcing the importance of diversification and long-term perspective for wealth building.
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